Selection 1.5pts EW Ian Poulter 10/1 (Various) Loss 3pts
Before I get in to any detail on this event, I want to make a point clear: the value in betting on this tournament is truly awful. Let me explain what I mean.
To win this event, a player has to play two group games and then win his last 16, last 8, last 4 and final match to prevail. So, 6 matches. I am going to hypothesise. Let's assume I back a player that is 3/4 odds for all matches they play. In reality, no player will be this short in the odds as an average over the 6 matches, but it explains an important philosophy.
The combined odds of a player winning all 6 of their matches at odds of 3/4? 27.7/1. This is a rough guide, but it will do to demonstrate the point. The best player in the event is over 27/1 to win each of their matches as a 6-fold accumulator.
There are 24 players in the field of which the top 13 in the betting (Kaymer down to Paul Lawrie) are priced below 27/1. Wow. The bookies really have it sewn up this week. Of course, those below Lawrie will not receive much of the betting and so the bookies are set to print money this weekend.
It is possible to win only 5 games and prevail (exceptionally, like Poulter last year, you can draw your first two group games and still triumph but that is too remote a possibility to consider). However, again using 3/4 odds, that is still 15/1, which is better odds than the top 8 in the field.
I made a mistake at WGC Matchplay event earlier in the year for this reason and the value was better there. My strong recommendation is that you keep your betting very light in such formats or do not bet at all. The only bets I would entertain as potentially being good value options are the matchbets. Here also I would exercise caution as winning an 18 hole matchplay bet is within the compass of any player in this field.
OK, I hope you heeded my warning and will do so in the future.
I feel compelled to offer you something here, hence the Poulter bet. In reality I will strongly consider my position if we have effectively a place money play-off in the last 8. the chart below is a hypothetical walkthrough of what will happen here. Note, I spent no time on this and do not want to debate whether Grace edges Bjorn or Lawrie edges Villegas. However, what I do want to do is hopefully show the paths each of the favourites has to winning this week.
I will consider the favourite in each group and their path.
Ballesteros group - Kaymer. Tough game with Cabrera-Bello potentially (friends and RCB in good form), but should beat Finch. After that a theoretical game awaits with Karlsson, which may be a really tough match. Kaymer finished 3rd here last year, but has a tough time of it to repeat that feat this year. 7/1 is close to insane for him this week. To make 0.75pt profit, he would have to get past RCB, Karlsson (or Mcdowell potentially) and Poulter and I just do not fancy him on current form.
Player group - Poulter has a tough start against John Senden. Senden will like the conditions here and has a history of strong results on bentgrass surfaces. I am backing Poulter's tenacity though, which took him to victory after surviving several ultra-tight matches last year. His record in the Ryder Cup is impeccable also. In short, Poulter is arguably the best competitor in the world in this format. That is perhaps a little strong, but there is actually nobody I would trust more to bring home a desperately needed point on either side later this year. I expect Poulter to win a tight game with Senden and then expose the recent frailties in Tom Le wis' game. After that, I would favour him to beat Kaymer (potentially). Justin Rose potentially awaits in the last 8, in what is effectively a play-off for profit. I may consider a covering strategy at this time. Poulter has a very decent draw here.
McCormack group - Snedeker is the favourite in the book, but I struggle to call this group. Bjorn famously beat Woods last year and Branden Grace will like this course, especially with 4 driveable par 4s for the big hitting South African to aim at. The winner of this group could face a winnable clash with Paul Lawrie/Villegas, but the group is so tough to call that a bet can not be taken.
Gabrielsson group - Robert Rock is the main threat to Justin Rose here, but on the bent surfaces he loves, he must think he can progress as the group winner. Darren Clarke has been abject since winning the Open last year. My concern with Rose is that to date, Matchplay has not really been a format he has found an affinity with. If he faces a golfing animal such as Poulter in the last 8, I think he will struggle to progress.
Larson group - Graeme McDowell has to negotiate the useful JBE Kruger and the sporadically world class Robert Karlsson to win this group. The group winner may face ardent home support for Cabera-Bello and then Garcia/Quiros to reach the semi finals. if seedings work out, the semi-finals are no easier, with Schwartzel/Hanson and then maybe Poulter (I hope) in opposition. For a man who is not in stellar form, 14/1 to get through those matches unscathed is shocking value.
Woosnam group - Garcia should be fancied to edge Quiros (or destroy him, if Quiros is having an off day) and Hiratsuka surely likely goes home early. A potentitally tough game with Senden awaits, with the difficult McDowell/Charl/Poulter route to glory. If he gets momentum from the home crowd, he could be unstoppable, but I simply can not touch the 10/1 quotes in finding out.
Norman group - Hanson must be favoured to top the group ahead of a toss up between Lawrie and Villegas. Lawrie likes Spain but has been a little out of sorts of late. Villegas also has shown only glimpses of his ability in recent times. Hanson is probably the seed with the best route to the last 8, with the runner up from the McCormack group awaiting in the last 16. I was close to picking Hanson, but am not convinced that he beats Schwartzel in the last 8, if Schwartzel has two good days behind him.
Palmer group - A rested but previously out of sorts Schwartzel has it really tough here against Goosen and Colsaerts. If he does get through, Robert Rock (or far more likely Rose rather than Clarke as alternative) is tough as is Hanson/Garcia/Poulter. I can not trust that he fires well enough all 6 days to win right now, although fast bentgrass is where he will do if anywhere.
In summary, a bit of a lottery, with all seeds vulnerable to an off day and either an early exit or a runners up group finish, which will throw up a mouth-watering last 16 clash. I believe Poulter will win his group. If he does, I would be surprised to see him lose to Kaymer right now and then would be surprised to see Rose outlast him. I just believe he has the best place chances here (over Hanson) and believe that once close, he will be the favourite to go on and win.
I may advise some matchbets later, but may decide discretion is the best play this week.
Regards
Dave
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