I wanted to take some time to talk about the ethos of spread betting for those of you who are perhaps used to only placing straight win or each way bets.
The motivation for this introduction is that we intend to start bringing spread bets in to our golf betting. It is something I use personally on a regular basis; there is a clear chance to profit when you find an angle on a golfer who may go better than expected, even if he fails to actually make the places. However, as I will discuss later on, the dangers of spread betting are also great if the bet fails. Therefore, understanding the potential downside is critical also as the potential losses are less obvious than a standard back bet.
Spread bets are available in a number of forms. The aggregated number of goal minutes, corner lines, golfer finishing positions, booking points and a myriad of other bets can all be covered on the spread. The difference is the way that the bet forms and are settled.
Let's look at the finishing positions market for Heath Slocum after the first round of the Mayakoba Classic - this is a screen grab from the Spreadex site, which is my spread betting site of choice.
And here is that same shot, with descriptors for each of the elements
49-52 represents the spread for this market and the margin for Spreadex. So, clearly Spreadex believe that Slocum will finiish somewhere in that range. Or, that is their best guess at least. If Slocum finished 50th or 51st, Spreadex will take money off everybody who sold or bought Slocum's finishing position, as it falls within the margin range. But more on that later.
Buying and selling
So, what does buying and selling mean? By buying, you are saying that you believe the player will finish higher than their spread line suggests. Above, the "buy" price is 52. So, if you place a buy bet, you believe Slocum will finish worse than 52nd.
By selling, you are saying that you think your player will perform better than their spread line suggests. Above, the "sell" price is 49. So, placing a sell bet means you think that Slocum will finish better than 49th. I am seller when it comes to golf.
The basic premise is simple enough then. I tipped Slocum up for this event, saying that if he starts well, he has a real chance. Well, he hasn't started well, but I personally have taken a chance and placed a sell bet that he will recover and beat the 49th place offered here. Note : Slocum is actually +2 and in T64th at present. So, he needs to improve by at least 15 places in the next 3 days to start making me money. So, all eyes are on him making the cut by close of play today.
How profits (and losses) are made
The calculations of winnings and losses in Spreadex are quite different to a normal back bet. Let me show you some examples using the Slocum position above to explain.
I place a £1 sell bet on Heath Slocum at 49. Slocum finishes 5th. So, he is 44 positions better than the spread line and I win £44.
I place a £1 sell bet on Heath Slocum at 49. Slocum finishes 49th. So, he is exactly in line with the spread prediction and I break even.
I place a £1 buy bet on Heath Slocum at 52. Slocum finishes 5th. By buy betting here I predicted he would not go so well and am now a pretty huge 47 positions lower than the spread line, which means I lose £47.
I place a £1 sell bet on Heath Slocum at 49. Slocum misses the cut and finishes 105th in the field after day 2. The maximum position is this market is 70th, so I only lose the difference between 49 and 70 , which is £21. More on this shortly.
Hopefully those examples help to demonstrate how the markets work. The maximum line in a full field golf event is 70 (in line with cut rule), so the greatest theoretical loss can only ever be 69 if the player finishes 1st and their line was somehow up at 70 (the margin would make this impossible in actuality). With a back bet, you place X and if the bet loses, you lose X. With a spread bet, you place X and if the bet loses, you lose X multiplied by the number of places from the spread line to the actual position the player finished.
Look at Martin Kaymer at his favourite event in Abu Dhabi this year. He had a form line of 2-1-1 between 2009 and 2011 and was clear favourite in 2012. His spread line was at 9-12 (I think). He missed the cut. So here is an example would you would potentially think Kaymer had a great chance even though his sell was 9 and you would have lost 61 times your steak as he finished MC and hence defaulted to 70. You will not catch me selling Steve Stricker in the John Deere for the same reason, by the way. I don't care what his form is.
By selling, you are saying that you think your player will perform better than their spread line suggests. Above, the "sell" price is 49. So, placing a sell bet means you think that Slocum will finish better than 49th. I am seller when it comes to golf.
The basic premise is simple enough then. I tipped Slocum up for this event, saying that if he starts well, he has a real chance. Well, he hasn't started well, but I personally have taken a chance and placed a sell bet that he will recover and beat the 49th place offered here. Note : Slocum is actually +2 and in T64th at present. So, he needs to improve by at least 15 places in the next 3 days to start making me money. So, all eyes are on him making the cut by close of play today.
How profits (and losses) are made
The calculations of winnings and losses in Spreadex are quite different to a normal back bet. Let me show you some examples using the Slocum position above to explain.
I place a £1 sell bet on Heath Slocum at 49. Slocum finishes 5th. So, he is 44 positions better than the spread line and I win £44.
I place a £1 sell bet on Heath Slocum at 49. Slocum finishes 49th. So, he is exactly in line with the spread prediction and I break even.
I place a £1 buy bet on Heath Slocum at 52. Slocum finishes 5th. By buy betting here I predicted he would not go so well and am now a pretty huge 47 positions lower than the spread line, which means I lose £47.
I place a £1 sell bet on Heath Slocum at 49. Slocum misses the cut and finishes 105th in the field after day 2. The maximum position is this market is 70th, so I only lose the difference between 49 and 70 , which is £21. More on this shortly.
Hopefully those examples help to demonstrate how the markets work. The maximum line in a full field golf event is 70 (in line with cut rule), so the greatest theoretical loss can only ever be 69 if the player finishes 1st and their line was somehow up at 70 (the margin would make this impossible in actuality). With a back bet, you place X and if the bet loses, you lose X. With a spread bet, you place X and if the bet loses, you lose X multiplied by the number of places from the spread line to the actual position the player finished.
Look at Martin Kaymer at his favourite event in Abu Dhabi this year. He had a form line of 2-1-1 between 2009 and 2011 and was clear favourite in 2012. His spread line was at 9-12 (I think). He missed the cut. So here is an example would you would potentially think Kaymer had a great chance even though his sell was 9 and you would have lost 61 times your steak as he finished MC and hence defaulted to 70. You will not catch me selling Steve Stricker in the John Deere for the same reason, by the way. I don't care what his form is.
In the graphic above, I highlighted the bet related information button. When clicking on that button, you get this information:
You can see the maximum make up is clearly marked at 70. When considering entering any market, it is imperative to check the rules Spreadex apply, as it will affect the way you want to back in the market.
Proposed betting strategy
I like to sell players whose line is at least 40. Why? Well, I know that if a player is available to sell at say, 45, the maximum I can lose is 25. The upper limit is 70 and so a player missing cut will be defaulted to 70th, which is 25 positions away from the 45 sell line.
It is rare that I buy players. To do this, the inverse would have to apply for a safer play. So, I would buy players whose buy line is at 25, knowing that if they win the event, I am "only" 24 positions out. I want the potential downside to always be lower than the potential upside. So, I mentioned that I have sold Slocum above. He could well miss the cut here, so it is a risky bet. However, I know with his line at 49 that he can only at most lose me 21 positions and hence 21 times my stake. 3 64s between now and Sunday and I probably win 48 times my stake. Yes please.
You will probably be surprised on first going in at how high the sell lines appear to be. It is not uncommon for the favourite to have a sell line as high as 25. In the recent Humana Challenge, I believe the line was as high as 29. For the favourite. So, Spreadex had no confidence in anybody and was happy to sell to anybody who wanted to back the favourite at 29, knowing they would have to pay out 28 times the stake if the favourite won. It sounds wonderful and perhaps even easy, but golf is full of surprises. The favourite didn't win and would have lost you money in that event.
We tipped up Jimmy Walker last week at 100/1. As we tipped both an EW and top 20 bet, it made no sense to me to also sell him on Spreadex. He finished 4th. I am guessing, but at 100/1 to back on the exchanges, I suspect his sell line would have been in the 50s. That is a 46 x stake improvement. Nice work if you can get it. So, the reason I like to place this type of bet is because I am charged with finding value. It is usually an 80/1 shot or higher I back that I think will first make the cut (important) and 2nd, have at least a couple of good rounds to beat the sell line. It is a nice feeling to tip a player who finishes a distant 30th and find you have made a nice 10x stake profit.
You can see the maximum make up is clearly marked at 70. When considering entering any market, it is imperative to check the rules Spreadex apply, as it will affect the way you want to back in the market.
Proposed betting strategy
I like to sell players whose line is at least 40. Why? Well, I know that if a player is available to sell at say, 45, the maximum I can lose is 25. The upper limit is 70 and so a player missing cut will be defaulted to 70th, which is 25 positions away from the 45 sell line.
It is rare that I buy players. To do this, the inverse would have to apply for a safer play. So, I would buy players whose buy line is at 25, knowing that if they win the event, I am "only" 24 positions out. I want the potential downside to always be lower than the potential upside. So, I mentioned that I have sold Slocum above. He could well miss the cut here, so it is a risky bet. However, I know with his line at 49 that he can only at most lose me 21 positions and hence 21 times my stake. 3 64s between now and Sunday and I probably win 48 times my stake. Yes please.
You will probably be surprised on first going in at how high the sell lines appear to be. It is not uncommon for the favourite to have a sell line as high as 25. In the recent Humana Challenge, I believe the line was as high as 29. For the favourite. So, Spreadex had no confidence in anybody and was happy to sell to anybody who wanted to back the favourite at 29, knowing they would have to pay out 28 times the stake if the favourite won. It sounds wonderful and perhaps even easy, but golf is full of surprises. The favourite didn't win and would have lost you money in that event.
We tipped up Jimmy Walker last week at 100/1. As we tipped both an EW and top 20 bet, it made no sense to me to also sell him on Spreadex. He finished 4th. I am guessing, but at 100/1 to back on the exchanges, I suspect his sell line would have been in the 50s. That is a 46 x stake improvement. Nice work if you can get it. So, the reason I like to place this type of bet is because I am charged with finding value. It is usually an 80/1 shot or higher I back that I think will first make the cut (important) and 2nd, have at least a couple of good rounds to beat the sell line. It is a nice feeling to tip a player who finishes a distant 30th and find you have made a nice 10x stake profit.
Betting bank
If you like to gamble, you will probably have heard about betting banks. Let me be clear - YOU NEED A VERY BIG BANK TO SPREAD BET. If you have a betting bank of £100, do not go placing £1 spread bets on golfers. If I sell a player at 45 and he misses the cut, I lose £25. A quarter of my bank gone, just because my player went out when the wind blew. I recommend a betting bank of at least 1000 times your stake. Think about it. In the example of the £100 betting bank, I should be happy with a sell line of 45 knowing that I can make £4.40 if the player wins and only lose £2.50 if he loses. It sounds boring I know, but losing a lot of money quickly that hurts is depressing. You are risking £2.50 maximum, to prospect after maximum winnings of only £4.40. What's the point? The point is that you make a profit on a guy that finishes 35th and on the weeks that your big shot really shows up, you make a much nicer profit still.
I find spread betting compliments my bets nicely. I often back long shots EW and cover them on spreadex. Losing an EW and finding I have more than paid for that stake with my Spreadbet is a nice feeling. However, do not neglect the downside to this which occurs when the player flops and back bet and spreadex bets both go down.
I typically place 1pt EW bets on golfers on the blog. My spread bets will be a maximum of 0.2pts, unless in a smaller field at which time a reduced maximum pay out may fuel my confidence.
If you have any questions regarding the process or my method of betting, please come back to me and I will help you if I can
Thanks
Dave (OneBet)
If you like to gamble, you will probably have heard about betting banks. Let me be clear - YOU NEED A VERY BIG BANK TO SPREAD BET. If you have a betting bank of £100, do not go placing £1 spread bets on golfers. If I sell a player at 45 and he misses the cut, I lose £25. A quarter of my bank gone, just because my player went out when the wind blew. I recommend a betting bank of at least 1000 times your stake. Think about it. In the example of the £100 betting bank, I should be happy with a sell line of 45 knowing that I can make £4.40 if the player wins and only lose £2.50 if he loses. It sounds boring I know, but losing a lot of money quickly that hurts is depressing. You are risking £2.50 maximum, to prospect after maximum winnings of only £4.40. What's the point? The point is that you make a profit on a guy that finishes 35th and on the weeks that your big shot really shows up, you make a much nicer profit still.
I find spread betting compliments my bets nicely. I often back long shots EW and cover them on spreadex. Losing an EW and finding I have more than paid for that stake with my Spreadbet is a nice feeling. However, do not neglect the downside to this which occurs when the player flops and back bet and spreadex bets both go down.
I typically place 1pt EW bets on golfers on the blog. My spread bets will be a maximum of 0.2pts, unless in a smaller field at which time a reduced maximum pay out may fuel my confidence.
If you have any questions regarding the process or my method of betting, please come back to me and I will help you if I can
Thanks
Dave (OneBet)
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