Racing Selections 29th April

Ludlow
14.10 A Little Bit Dusty 8/1 - 1pt e/w -2PTS
14.45 Nobunaga 5/1 -1pt Win WON +5PTS
15.15 Trop Fort 5/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.50 One Term 7/4 -2Pt Win WON +3.5PTS
16.25 Cootehill 6/1 -1pt Win WON+6PTS
17.00 Fairwood Present 14/1 1pt e/w placed +2.5PTS
17.30 Fabrika 10/3 - 1p Win NR (OneBet Longshot Fair Loch 33/1 1pt e/w) -2PTS

Meeting Total:+11pts

Football tips April 29th

Both teams to score
Eng Prem Tottenham vs Blackburn 2.5 pts at 4/5 (Bet365, 8/11 various) Loss 2.5pts
Fr Lg1 Lille vs PSG 2pts at 4/6 (Various) W Profit 1.33pts

To win NOT to nil
DE Bund 2 Furth vs Fortuna 1.5pts GR Furth to win NOT to nil at 11/4 (Coral) Loss 1.5pts
SC Prem Celtic vs Rangers 2pts celtic to win NOT to nil at 9/4 (SkyBet, Ladbrokes) Loss 2pts

To win to nil
IT Serie A Siena vs Milan 1.5pts Milan to win to nil at 15/8 (Paddy Power, 7/4 Bet365) Loss 1.5pts


HT/FT
Eng PRem Chelsea vs Blackburn 1pt Draw HT/Chelsea FT at 15/4 (BetVictor, 7/2 various) Loss 1pt
DE Bund 2 Ein Frankfurt vs Munich 1860 1.5pts F'furt HT/F'furt FT at 6/5 (Paddy Power, 11/10 various) Loss 1.5pts
DE Bund 2 Union Berlin vs Hansa 1pt U Berlin HT/U Berlin FT at 5/2 (BlueSq, 888Sport) Loss 1pt

Highest scoring half
FR Lg1 Valenciennes vs Nice 2pts 2nd half highest scoring at 5/4 (Bwin, Coral) Loss 2pts

Total loss : -11.67pts

After a nice mini-revival, the weekend has not gone well.  In hindsight, it was perhaps foolish to try to apply classical lines to pivotal end of season games.  I will consider strongly how I approach the remaining games.  Of course, any bet can lose, but there was perhaps enough in the failures here to suggest a need to be wary at this time.

Football tips April 28th

To win to nil
Eng Prem Sunderland to win to nil vs Bolton 1.5pts at 13/5 (Paddy Power, 5/2 various) Loss 1.5pts
Eng Champ Crystal Palace vs Cardiff 1.5pts Cardiff to win to nil at 5/2 (Ladbrokes, 12/5 various) Loss 1.5pts
Eng Champ Southampton vs Coventry 2pts at 11/10 (Various) W 2.2pts
Eng Div 1 Brentford vs Sheff Wed 1.5pts Sheff Wed to win to nil at 5/2 (Various) Loss 1.5pts
Eng Div 1 Preston vs Charlton 1pt Charlton to win to nil at 13/5 (Paddy Power, 5/2 Ladbrokes) Loss 1pt
End Conf Gateshea vs Telfor 1pt Telford to win to nil at 23/10 (Paddy Power, 9/4 Bet365, Hills) W Profit 2.3pts

Over 3.5 goals
DE Bund Bayern vs Stuttgart 1.5pts at 13/10 (32Red, 5/4 various) Loss 1.5pts
SC Div 2 Airdrie vs East Fife 1.5pts at 6/4 (Sporting Bet, Hills) Loss 1.5pts
SC Div 3 East Stirling vs Berwick 1.5pts at 13/8 (Boylesports, 6/4 Sporting Bet) Loss 1.5pts

Half time score
Eng Div 1 Sheff United 1-0 Stevenage 1pt at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Coral) Loss 1pt

Highest scoring half
Eng Div 2 Morecambe vs Plymouth 2pts 2nd half highest scoring at 6/5 (Coral) W Profit 2.4pts
SC Div 3 Annan vs PEterhead 1pt 1st half highest scoring at 21/10 (Various) Loss 1pt
ES LA Liga Espanol vs Gijon 2pts 2nd half highest scoring at 11/10 (BWin, Coral) W Profit 2.2pts

HT/FT
Eng Prem Wigan vs Newcastle 1.5pts Newcastle HT/Newcastle FT at 33/10 (188Bet, 3/1 various) Loss 1.5pts
Eng Div 1 Wycombe vs Notts County 1pt Notts C HT/Notts C FT at 10/3 (Ladrbokes, 3/1 various) Loss 1pt
Eng conf Barrow vs Newport 1.5pts Barrow HT/Barrow FT at 3/1 (Various) Loss 1.5pts
ES LA Liga Espanol vs Gijon 1.5pts Espanol HT/Espanol FT at 13/8 (Stan James, 6/4 Ladbrokes) Loss 1.5pts

Corners handicap
Eng Prem Wigan vs Newcastle 2pts Wigan -1 corner at 10/11 (Bet365, 4/5 Skybet) W Profit 1.82pts

Total corners
Eng Champ Birmingham vs Reading 2pts over 11 total corners at 10/11 (Bet365) Loss 2pts
Eng Conf Fleetwood vs Luton 1pt over 12 corners at 6/4 (Sporting Bet) Loss 1pt

Total loss -8.58pts

Racing Selections 30th April

30th April

Punchestown
14.40 On the Fringe 9/2 - 1pt Win -1PT
15.15 Quel Espirit - 9/4 2pt Win -2PTS
15.50 Tranquil Sea - 5/1 2pt Win -2PTS
16.30 Hisaabat 4/1 - 2pt Win WON+8PTS
17.05 Une Artiste 6/4 NAP - 3pt win (Bet Refunded) (OneBet Longshot - Maes Choice 50/1 - 0.5pts e/w) WON +31.25PTS
17.40 Immediate Response 13/2 - 1pt e/w -2PTS

Meeting Total:+32.25PTS


Haydock
17.55 Tenhoo 18/1 - 1pte/w -2PTS
18.25 Rusty Rocket 5/1 - 2pt Win WON@7/1 +14PTS
18.55 Tilsworth Glenboy 11/2 -1pt Win -1PT
19.25 Emily Carr 2/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
19.55 Now My Sun 11/2 - 1pt Win NR
20.25 Gabriel The Hero NAP 11/8 - 3pt Win =3PTS

Meeting Total: +6PTS


Market Rasen
13.40 Advertise 4/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
14.10 O Croataigh 7/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
14.45 Boruler 4/7 NAP Double  & 15.55 Cool Baranca 4/6 -  3pt Win WON@2.5/1 +7.5PTS
15.20 Ukranian Star 4/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.25 Stick Together 7/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
17.00 Shuh Shuh Gah 5/6 - 2 pt Win WON@5/4 +2.5PTS

Meeting Total:+2PTS


Sandown
1.30 Lexis Boy 8/1 1 point EW WON@9/1 +11.25PTS
2.00 Tour D’Argent 6/1 2 point win -2PTS
2.35 French Opera 5/1 2 point win -2PTS
3.10 West End Rocker 9/1 1 point EW -2PTS
3.45 Twice Over 9/4 2 point win -2PTs
4.15 Stipulate 2/1 NAP 3 point win -3PTS
4.50 Robemaker 5/1 2 point win NR
5.20 Barwick 5/1 1 point win -1PT

Meeting total: -0.75PTS




Daily Total +39.50 PTS

Football tips April 27th

To Win to nil

FR Lg2 Istres vs Arles 1.5pts Istres to win to nil at 2/1 Paddy Power (15/8 Bet365, Coral) Loss 1.5pts

IT Lg2 Verona vs Empoli 2pts Verona to win to nil at 7/4 (Paddy Power, 7/5 Bet365) Loss 2pts

To win NOT to nil

FR Lg2 Nantes vs Amiens 1.5pts Nantes to win not to nil at 11/4 (Coral) Loss 1.5pts

HT/FT

ES Lg2 Cordoba vs Guadalajara 2.5pts Cordoba HT/Cordoba FT at 11/8 (Stan James, 6/5 Paddy Power) W Profit 3.44pts

Total loss: 1.56pts

Racing Selections 27th April

27th April

Perth
14.00 Keeneland 9/4 - 2pt Win WON +4.5PTS
14.35 Nodebateaboutit 9/2 - 2pt Win - 2PTS
15.10 Markadam 9/4 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.45 Frontier Spirtit 13/2 - 1pt Win NR replaced by Lord Redsgirth 2/1 - 2pt Win WON +4PTS
16.20 Rossinis Dancer 10/3 - 2pt Win Rule WON +6PTS
16.50 Pocket Too NAP 7/4 - 3pt Win WON+5.25PTS

Meeting Total:1 +15.75PTS


Punchestown
16.55 First Lieutenant 3/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
17.30 Hurricane Fly 2/5 NAP - 4pt Win WON+1.6PTS
18.05 Felix Yonger 2/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
18.40 Osca Dara 9/4 - 2pt Win WON+4.5PTS(OneBet Longshot - Ted Veale 25/1 - 1pt e/w) NR
19.10 Tasitiocht 4/1 - 2pt Win (OneBet Longshot - The Flying Doc 25/1 - 1pt e/w) -4PTS

Meeting Total:-0.9PTS


Daily Total: +14.85PTS

Racing Selections 26th April

26th April

Punchestown
15.40 The Tracey Shuffle 11/4 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.50 Arabella Boy 5/1 - 1pt Win  -1pt (OneBet Longshot - Ballycarron Lad 40/1 - 1pt e/w) -2PTS
17.30 Berties Dream 12/1 - 1pt e/w -2PTS
18.05 Its the Ice I like 20/1 - 1pt e/w -2PTS
19.15 Buckers Bridge 5/1 - 1pt Win WON+5PTS , Mount Colah 20/1 - 1pt e/w -2PTS


Meeting Total:-5PTS


Perth
14.00 Ubaltique 7/2 - 1pt Win WON +3.5PTS
14.30 Railway Dillon 7/2 -1pt Win  WON +3.5PTS
15.00 Seven is Lucky 11/2 - 1pt Win -1PT
15.30 Door Boy 5/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.05 & 16.40 Special Portrait 8/11 NAP & Sustainability - Double 4.5/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS


Meeting Total: +2PTS


Daily Total:-3PTS

Golf tips - Ballantine's Championship Tips

Ballentines Selections
1.5pts EW Alex Noren 28/1 Loss 3pts
1pt e/w KT Kim 25/1 Loss 2pts
0.5pts e/w Min-Gyu Cho 250/1 Loss 1pt

Total loss : 6 ponits

I am going to keep my preview fairly brief this week.  Firstly, it is too close to the start of the event for my ramblings to really add any value.  Secondly, I have not been able to amass enough confidence from my analysis to start telling anybody definitively that I am on the right track this week.
The Ballantine's Championship is played for only the second time at Blackstone Golf Course and the course has few really defining attributes to help us to eliminate competitors this week.  Playing a fairly average in length 7302 yards par 72, distance will not be a major concern for the golfers teeing it up this week.  Lee Westwood won the event last year, driven by his usually accurate approach game and a very solid putting display.  However, this is not necessarily the brief as the two Korean players to have made the place positions were outside the top 50 for GIR, but putted impeccably.  Throughout the upper reaches of the leaderboard, players who prospered for differing reasons proliferate.  Therefore, it is very difficult to pinpoint exactly which type of golfer we want here.  Of course, the player that drives great, dials in his irons and putts like a dream will be very hard to beat, but golf is never quite like that.
Although there are some trees here, players should not be overly threatened from the tee.  This appears to be a second shot golf course more than a driving specialist golf course with touch around the green likely to be important in keeping bogeys from the card.
The weather is likely to be less than ideal this week, although winds should not significantly affect the players' game.  It is reported to be cold here for the most part, which may add a little length to the course, but not to any significant degree if the forecasts are correct.
This is in essence a thinker's course, with the brief really on eliminating errors and finding the right part of the greens.  Conditions were good here last year, but Westwood only won with a score of -12, reinforcing the fact that players need to manage their way around the course rather than try to overpower it.  The course is also quite physically demanding, which may affect a player's mental state as the rounds wear on.

I have only selected 3 players, because I have really struggled to feel comfortable with my efforts to beat the layers and the field this week. Put simply, this event is more of a lottery than most. Last week, on a first time course, it was actually easier for me to find a brief to fill than it is here. Therefore, I want players with form, an affinity with Korea and ideally this track from last year and a sound all round game.

The one thing I do like about this event is the fact that I can leave alone Adam Scott at 8/1 and Ian Poulter at 14/1. Both were very prominent at the Masters and both have fine records in Asia. However, Asia is slightly too big a continent for me to make them a shoe-in every time they tee up. Scott has played very sparingly this year and can't be trusted at win only odds. I certainly am not going to have any place considerations for Scott given his lack of tournament play. Poulter finished well last week, but in my mind I see Poulter winning on faster greens in finer climates. I am not convinced he will stick at it enough here to get the job done. His design company and their presence at this event is a distraction that gives me additional question marks as well. Both can win, but at the prices, they must be overlooked.

So to Noren then. That he showed up last week has been a sign for many to tip him. However, both of his wins came on the back of abject finishes last year. Noren is a bit like Bubba in the sense that he can just crash in from seemingly nowhere and win an event. Whilst I take some encouragement from his 5th last week, I take more from the acclimatisation exercise and prominent display here last year. Noren can take advantage of the par 5s like few others if on his game. One thing the weekend charge of last week does suggest is that he is honing his game and dialling in his irons. In this field, I think 28/1 is outstanding value. Cold conditions will not overly upset the Celtic Manor Welsh Open Champion of 2011, nor will the man who waltzed to a 7 stroke victory in ever worsening conditions in Sweden be fazed by a chill wind. Take the 28s and enjoy the ride.

I am a big fan of Kyung Tae-Kim despite backing him last year as he agonisingly finished 6th at the WGC last year at 250/1. Despite this headline result and a consistent top 50 world ranking (admittedly driven by results in Asia), the layers continue to readily dismiss Kim........but not in Asia. A decent field has assembled here from the European Tour, but Kim's stellar record on the Asian Tour sees him quoted at 25s here. However, I still like the price. Noren is the player I most like to win this week, but Kim is the player I most trust. Expect strong iron play and proficiency around the green and expect a contending 4 days from one of Korea and Asia's finest players.

Finally, I have been digging a little deeper and believe I have found some value in the form of Min-Gyu Cho. Cho is the second best ranked Korean in the world at this event behind Kim and yet is dismissed here in an event which saw 2 unheralded Koreans place last year. Cho's career path has been forged mainly on the Japanese tour and he comes in here on the back of a 6th place last time out,where he was top Korean player, ahead of KT Kim. A closer look at his stats and you see that Cho leads the Japanese tour for birdies, despite a less than impressive record with the driver. Driving is not so critical here and clearly Cho is capable of going low if in the groove. As 250/1 shots go, I believe this player can certainly challenge if he gets his game right this week

As I said, a brief summary..........

Regards

DAVE

Racing Selections 25th April

25th April

Punchestown
15.40 Ten Bob 6/1 - 1pt Win  -1PT,Weekend Millionair 12/1 1pt e/w placed @16/1 +3.2 Pts
16.20 Un Beau Matin 5/2 -2pt Win -2PTS
16.55 Ipsos Du Berlais 6/1 - 1pt Win (OneBet Longshot - Castle Wings 20/1 1pt e/w) -3PTS
17.30 Quantitiveeasing 10/1 -1pt e/w Race Not Run
18.05 Venture Capital 6/1 1.5Pts e/w -3PTS
18.40 Tranquil Sea 5/1 - 2pt Win Race Not Run
19.15 Kaki De La Pree 4/1 - 1.5pt Win NR


Meeting Total:  -3.8 Pts

Football tips April 24th

Half time score
Eng Conf Gateshead vs Luton 1pt Gateshead 1-0 Luton at 21/4 (BWin, 5/1 various) Loss 1pt

Both teams to score
Eng Conf Gateshead vs Luton 2pts at 4/5 (Various) Loss 2pts

HT/FT
Eng Conf Newport vs Wrexham 1.5pts Wrexham HT/Wrexham FT at 3/1 (Various) W Profit 4.5pts

Total profit: 1.5pts

Racing Selections 24th April

24th April


Punchestown 
15.40 Boxer Georg 2/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.20 Trifolium 4/7 - See 4 Fold below
16.55 Burrenbridge Lodge 16/1 - 1pt e/w -2PTS
17.30 Sizing Europe 1/2 See 4 Fold below WON
18.05 Catamongdepigeons 7/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
18.40 Sir Des Champs NAP 1/4 See 4 Fold below WON
19.15 The Big Easy 10/3 - 2pt Win -2PTS

4 Fold
Boxer Georg, Trifolium, Sizing Europe, Sir Des Champs, 7/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS

Meeting Total: -10PTS

Towcester
17.20 Kap West 11/4 - 2pt Win -2PTS
17.50 Native Beauty NAP 4/6 - 4pt Win - 4PTS
18.20 Chapel House 4/1 - 2pt Win NR
18.50 Glan Lady 13/2 - 1pt e/w -2PTS
19.25 Montauk Highway 9/4 -2pt Win -2PTS
19.55 Seebright 10/3 - 2pt Win WON +6.67PTS

Meeting Total: -3.33Pts


Daily Total: -13.33Pts


Well the poor run of results continues and a very disappointing day indeed. Staying positive and looking forward to the rest of the week.

Golf tips - Zurich Classic form guide

Golf tips - Zurich Classic form guide


Zurich classic outright tips http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/golf-tips-zurich-classic-tips.html


The form guide is likely to provide a good pointer in finding our challengers this week.  Apart from the mercurial Bubba Watson, who came here with no real form and won last year, the rest of the top 5 had the following result in the tournament immediately prior to the event: 14th, 3rd, 8th, 14th.  Bubba was 38th in his previous event.

This course rewards ball strikers, and it makes sense to be extremely cautious in backing players who are out of sorts with their recent game when coming in to this event.

Unlike last week's Valero Texas Open, this event has numerous players who had a top 10 in their last event and 3 players in Watson, Pettersson and Curtis who won last time out.  This is a much better field than last week and players at the head of the betting who have been off their recent game such as favourite Luke Donald can certainly be taken on, despite his finishing 8th on his only appearance here last year.

The customary form table is shown below, with my usual look at the players at bigger odds in the betting market, despite their strong recent form

Brian Davis - Davis has been in my time team a couple of times in recent events, but at 125 and 50/1, landing a place at bigger odds and just falling short last time out.  Davis is a general 66s this week and holds continued appeal given the place odds of 15.5/1.  I can overlook Davis here, although he clearly has great recent form.  With only a 17th and 19th to show in 2009 and 2005 respectively from 6 attempts at this course, he needs to find a lot to really challenge this week.  With a modest 55th and 38th  in greens hit in the last two events, I can leave him alone this time.  

Bud Cauley - Bud Cauley seems to be the player most are scared not to back right now.  Cauley continues to impress on tour and he certainly has all the attributes needed to add a win to his CV any time soon.  A lack of course experience should not necessarily be a reason to rule Cauley out this week either.  Last time out, Cauley was an impressive 9th in greens hit and sits in the top 30 on tour for scrambling, which is important here.  In addition, Cauley's less than stellar putting will not be punished as heavily on this track.  There is a lot to like about Cauley this week.  He just misses out for me, although I would not deter anybody at 50/1.  

Geoff Ogilvy - Ogilvy last played this event in 2004, which means he has never played this course.  however, there are signs that Ogilvy is starting to creep back in to form and he is certainly a player to monitor if not back in the coming events.  Ogilvy is 66/1 here and as soon as he genuinely threatens to place or win, his odds will tumble for such events.  At the Masters last time out, Ogilvy was 1st in accuracy off the tee and 14th in greens.  This is the first time since around this time last year that Ogilvy has put together 3 top 30s in succession; despite the lack of course form, Ogilvy's claims here are solid.  My opinion is that 66s is OK but not compelling enough to risk a punt on a player who has been extremely inconsistent on tour in recent times.  

Cameron Tringale - Tringale was in my selections last week and missed a 15 foot birdie putt to make the places.  I gave Tringale a lot of consideration for this event as well as he was a sound 26th in greens hit last week, having been 9th before that.  18th and 28th here in the last 2 years, it is clear also that Tringale has an affinity with the course.  Tringale is priced up the same as last week, but I feel his credentials are marginally less compelling this week.  8th in his last two outings, I just have a reservation that he goes on now and competes in what is a much better field this week.  At 66/1, I feel he is priced fairly this time around.

Boo Weekley - Weekley was also in our recent staking plan and he only failed to make the paying places due to an alarming slide over the closing holes which saw Weekley drop 4 shots in 5 holes and miss out by one at Harbour Town.  Weekley has been pushed out to 100/1 this week, largely I am sure due to the illness which forced him to withdraw mid-round at Texas last week.  If fully recovered 100/1 is a great price for a man who continue to play great golf from tee to green.  On a course where putting is far less significant a factor, he has the game IF he is fully fit.  10th in 2010 and 13th in 2009 here.

Miguel Angel Carballo - Carballo produced one of the best rounds on Sunday last week to claim 24th at the Valero Texas open, his 2nd top 30 in 3 events.  However, I do not see a strong enough skill set to challenge the better players this week.  Avoid.

Nathan Green - Nate Green has been in decent form of late, but decent form will not yield anything this week.  Top 30 in greens last time out will stand Green in good stead here and a top 20 place is not out of the question.  Four attempts here and no better than 23rd makes him a player to leave out this week.

Golf Tips - Zurich Classic Tips

As usual, I am going to post my tips early, with further rationalé to follow in due course

Zurich Classic Outright tips
2pts EW Jason Dufner at 25/1 (Various, but take Bodog's 6 places) W Profit 62.5pts
1pt EW John Senden at 50/1 (Various, but take Bodog's 6 places) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Pat Perez at 110/1 (Bet365) Loss 2pts
1pt W Bubba Watson at 14/1 (Various) Loss 1pt
1pt W Justin Rose at 22/1 (Various) Loss 1pt

Total profit 56.5pts

Zurich Classic form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/golf-tips-zurich-classic-form-guide.html

Tournament guide
The Zurich Classic is the next event on tour and, in terms of calibre of field, represents a distinct step up from last week's Valero Texas Open.

TPC Louisiana is the host course this week and, apart from the disruption of Hurricane Katrina forcing a change in 2006, has been the host venue since 2005.  At a little over 7300 yards, this par 72 ranks as moderate in terms of difficulty - scores in the region of -15 have typically been enough to contend.  The course's main defence is in numerous bunkers, water hazards and the oft tricky winds that can get up around this course.  The last 3 holes may well provide late drama here as they can reward a player who needs to go low to make up ground (the par 4 16th is driveable and the par 5 18th reachable in 2).  However, on the converse, the risk element is prevalent too, with water guarding all 3 holes, the par 3 17th likely to play the toughest hole on the course and bunkers a major feature.

In short, we have an exciting golf course that can be attacked, but that also has enough to concern golfers who do not play smart golf or really dial in their game this week.

In trying to pick a winner, we have enough course form to support our predictions, but surprisingly, precious little in the way of consistent contenders here.  Bubba won last year after a 43rd and 2 MC previously, with only a 5th in 2007 to hint he could compete around here.  Jason Bohn has a 67th and MC either side of his 2010 win and Jerry Kelly won in 2009 and then finished 67, MC next two years.  It is possible for players who  have little or no previous course form to win here.  In my outright selections, a couple of my player's are selected on an attribute basis, rather than on course form, but more on that later.

I said in my form guide (link above) that players in form are important.  The top 5 last year (Bubba aside) all arrived in pretty good shape after a good performance coming in.  I want players playing well coming in here.  Putting and driving is actually pretty negligible this week - this is all about hitting greens and scrambling well when missing greens.  That was on over-simplistic statement of course, but the numbers below really do highlight how crucial it is to hit greens this week versus the other headline stats of driving distance, driving accuracy and putts per round.

Average rank of top 7 players in the Zurich Classic 2011
Driving distance:  32.1
Driving accuracy: 61.5
GIR: 10.4
Putts per round: 40.1

Pretty compelling stuff.  Shot makers are highly desired here.  With the proliferation of waste areas rather than penal rough or trees off the fairway, players can often get away with less than stellar driving.  Also, the greens here are flatter than most and of course, the more straightforward the putting surface, the less great putters such as Luke Donald have an edge.

The selections
Like Matt Kuchar last week, I have no difficulty at all in leaving alone the favourite here.  Luke Donald is in nothing like the form of last year, despite a recent win at the Transitions Championship.  We had Donald onside there, but his form has fallen away again since.  Donald's impeccable game around the green will help here, but with putting being as insignificant as practically any other course on tour, I really do not see Donald beating the field this week.  That he can compete anywhere is without doubt, but there are so many question marks about his game that he must be overlooked.  Donald finished 8th last year in his only appearance here, but he was in a great run of consistency at that point.

Bubba Watson is next in the betting and I could not disregard him this week.  Bubba has been at the very top of the GIR stats in the last couple of years and of course is in stunning form this year, culminating in a wonderful win at the Masters.  With only a 1pt win on the 2011 champion here, I am effectively saying that I have a Bubba win as a cover bet this week.  I don't want to commit anything more than that as I am unsure how practiced and dialled in he will be after winning his first major.

In a similar way, I have a 1pt win only bet on Justin Rose.  Like Bubba, Rose is one of the very finest ball strikers on tour and his form in recent weeks is impeccable.  We had Rose on side for the Masters and he didn't let us down, finishing 8th.  Those who watched the Masters will know how close Rose was to really challenging for the win.  Several times he moved on to the edge of contention before frittering shots away.  To confirm my belief that this ball striker comes in to the event with a great chance, Rose is number 1 in my ranks for recent greens in regulation in this field.  In the last 4 events, Rose has been 15th, 17th, 1st and 5th in greens hit.  A repeat of that form surely sees him finally contend here.  Rose also is a good scrambler on tour.  Rose has a 17th place here in 2005 but nothing better than 43rd in the last 3 years.  However, I can forgive that given his compelling form coming in to this event.

My headline pick is actually Jason Dufner.  Given the credentials of Rose and Watson above him in the betting, it may seem strange to go strongly on a player who has never won on tour.  However, the reasons to believe in Dufner this week are strong enough for me to want to back him.  I have yet to talk about the fact that this course is a Pete Dye design.  This course has a classical Pete Dye feel, so positives can be taken from strong performances at other Dye designs.  Famously of course, Dufner was pipped in a play-off at last year's PGA by Keegan Bradley.  The course - Atlanta National Golf Club - is a Pete Dye design.  Dufner for 68 holes was the best player on the course.  But there is more than that.  Dufner is one of the few players to have demonstrated his ability to dominate this course consistently.  Dufner was 9th in 2009, 7th in 2010 and 3rd in 2011, which is a stunning progressive form line here.  And, Dufner arguably comes in this week in better form that the previous 3 years.  Dufner is threatening to break through on tour.  A good scrambler with a sound all round game, Dufner is an excellent ball striker who can really dial in when on form.  I also like the fact that Dufner has strong birdie and bogey avoidance stats, which means he will keep the scoreboard ticking over here.  Whilst his lack of wins is a concern, his course form here allied to a sound recent game makes him a very attractive bet this week.

John Senden is a longer price, but has real claims to go well here.  No worse than 43rd in the last 4 years with two of those results inside the top 15, Senden is clearly at home on this course.  Put simply, Senden makes my list based on his ball striknig ability and affinity with the course.  Whilst I said that putting was a negligible factor last year, Senden ranked 123rd for putts per round, which is simply not good enough.  If he can improve that this year (he should), Senden may find himself much closer to things this week.  He is well worth backing this week, especially with the extra place available at Bodog.

At more than twice the price, I like the credentials of Perez here this week.  Perez has a 12th in 2008 to give some confidence.  In addition, I like the fact that he was a strong 12th last time out.  A good scrambler, Perez was 16th in greens hit last time out.  I also like the fact that Perez sits high in the par 4 performance stats, which is a good indicator here also.  Perez is a difficult player to get right (for me at least), but I believe he is worth having onside here as one of the better long shots in the field.

Football tips April 23rd

To win to nil
DE Bund 2 Aachen vs Eintracht Frankfurt 1.5pts Ein Frankfurt to win to nil at 12/5 (BlueSq, 888Sport) W Profit 3.6pts

HT/FT
Fr Lg2 Bastia vs Chateauroux 1.5pts Bastia HT/Bastia FT at 23/20 (Stan James, 11/10 various) 1.725pts

Total profit : 5.325pts

Racing Selections 23rd April

Hexham 23rd April
14.30 Sierra Victor 6/1 - 1pt Win -1PT
15.00 Beau Dandy 6/1 - 1pt Win -1PT
15.30 Constant Contact NAP EVE - 3pt Win (OneBet Longshot - Notonebuttwo 25/1 1pt e/w) +1PT
16.00 The Thirsty Bricky 13/2 1pt e/w WON@7/1 +8.4PTS
16.30 River Dragon 7/4 - 2pt Win -2PTS
17.00 Belon Gale 9/4 - 2pt Win -2PTS
17.30 Beeves 5/2 - 2pt Win WON+5PTS

Daily Total: +10.4PTS


Ffos Las
17.10 Financial Climate 7/1 - 1pt e/w - 2PTS
17.45 Speed Steed 9/4 - 2pt Win -2PTS
18.15 Space Mission 4/1 - 1.5pt Win - 1.5PTS
18.45 Schism 13/2 - 1pt e/w Placed @ 7/1 +1.4PTS
19.15 Causing Chaos 13/8 NAP - 3pt Win - 3PTS
19.45 OneBet Longshot - Loves a Brazilian 20/1 1pt e/w) -2PTS
20.15 Liqeur Rose 7/4 - 2pt Win - 2PTS

Meeting Total: -11.1PTS


Daily Total - -0.7PTS

Football tips April 22nd

Half time score
Eng Prem Manchester United 1-0 Everton 1pt at 5/2 (Coral, 12/5 Paddy Power) Loss 1pt

To win NOT to nil
Fr Lg1 Lyon vs Lorient 2pts at 9/4 (Coral) Profit 4.5pts

To win to nil
IT Serie A Cesena vs Palermo 1.5pts Palermo win to nil at 7/2 (Bet365, Bodog) Loss 1.5pts

Both teams to score
DE Bund 2 Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Union Berlin 2pts at 5/6 (bet365, 4/5 Various) W Profit 1.67pts

HT/FT result
ES La Liga Valencia vs Betis 1pt Valenica HT/Valenica FT at 8/5 BlueSq, 888 Sport W Profit 1.6pts
DE Bund 2 Karlsruhe vs Paderborn 1pt Paderborn Ht/Paderborn FT at 7/2 (Ladbrokes, 10/3 various) Loss 1pt

Total Corners
Eng Prem Liverpool vs West Brom 1.5pts uner 11 corners at 6/4 (Sporting Bet, 5/4 Bet Victor) Loss 1.5pts

Corners handicap
Eng Prem Manchester United vs Everton 2.5pts Man U -5 corners at Evens (Betfred, 20/12 SkyBet)) Loss 2.5pts

Total profit : 0.27pts

Racing Selections 22nd April

Stratford 22nd April
14.00 Double Ross 3/1 - 2pt Win - 2PTS
14.30 Emmaslegend NAP 11/8 - 3pt Win -3PTS
15.00 Marescsous 9/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.30 Seedless 7/1 - 1.5pt e/w Placed at 9/1 +2.4PTS
16.00 My Flora 8/15 Double with Emmaslegend 11/8 - 1.4/1 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
16.30 Tindaro 7/2 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
17.00 Raphiell 11/4 - 2pt Win -2PTS

Meeting Total: -11.6PTS


Wincanton
Tasty Treble Polisky, Current Event, Diamonds Return 15/1 - 1pt Win -1PT


Daily Total -12.6PTS

Football tips 21st April

Both teams to score - Yes
Eng Prem Fulham vs Wigan 3pts at 5/6 (Ladbrokes, 3/4 BetVictor) W Profit 2.5pts
Eng Champ Brighton vs Birmingham 2pts at 8/11 (Stan James, 7/10 Bet Victor, William Hill) W Profit 1.45pts
FR Lg1 Dijon vs Lille 1.5pts at 3/4 (BWin, 8/11 Various) Loss 1.5pts
FR Lg1 Nive vs Auxerre 1pt at 21/20 (William Hill, Evens various) Loss 1pt

Both teams to score - No
Eng Champ Ipswich vs Millwall 1.5pts at 23/20 (William Hill, 11/10 Various) W Profit 1.725pts

Under 2.5 goals
SC Div 3 Montrose vs East Stirling 1pt at 13/8 (Stan James, William Hill) Loss 1pt

Over 3.5 goals
ES La Liga Barcelona vs Real Madrid 1.5pts at 6/4 (Various) Loss 1.5pts

To win to nil
FR Lg1 Montpellier vs Valenciennes 2pts Montpellier at 13/10 (William Hill, Bet365) W Profit 2.6pts
DE Bund Werder Bremen vs Bayern Munich 1.25pts Bayern Munich at 4/1 (BlueSq, 888 Sport) Loss 1.25pts
IT Serie A Catania vs Atalanta 1.5pts Catania at 5/2 (Paddy Power, 12/5 Bodog, Bet365) W Profit 3.75pts

Highest scoring half
FR Lg1 Bordeaux vs Marseille 1pt 1st half highest scoring at 29/10 (Stan James, 11/5 various) W Profit 2.9pts
Eng Lg1 Oldham vs Preston 1pt 1st half highest scoring at 9/4 (BetVictor, 21/10 Bet365, Sporting Bet) Loss 1pt
Eng Champ Coventry vs Doncaster 1.5pts 2nd half highest scoring at 15/13 (Bwin, 21/20 Hills, B365) W Profit 1.73pts
Scots Div 1 Falkirk vs Raith 2.5pts 2nd hald highest scoring at 21/20 (BetVictor, Evens various) Loss 2.5pts

HT/FT
IT Serie A Napoli vs Novara 2pts Napoli HT/Napoli FT at 8/11 (Paddy Power, 3/4 32Red) W Profit 1.45pts
Sc Div 1 Morton vs Ross County 12/5 2pts Ross C HT/Ross C FT at 12/5 (coral, 11/5 Various) Loss 2pts

Total corners
ES La Liga Barcelona vs Real Madrid 1pt under 10 corners at 6/4 (Sporting bet, 11/8 SkyBet) Loss 1pt
DE Bund Hertha vs Kaiserslautern 1pt under 8 corners at Evens (Bet365, 5/6 BetVictor) Loss 1pt

Total profit 4.36pts

Racing Selections 21st April

Ayr
13.40 Bene Lad 7/1 1pt e/w - 2PTS
14.15 Lidar 5/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
14.50 Edgardo Sol 5/2 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
15.25 Harry The Viking 7/1 - 1Pt Win, Portrait King 9/1 -1pt e/w -3PTS
16.00 Corkage 14/1 - 1pt e/w -2PTS
16.35 Anquetta 5/1 -2pt Win - 2PTS
17.10 No Loose Change 11/4 - 2pt Win - 2PTS
17.45 River Maigue NAP 11/8 - 3Pt Win WON +4.125

Meeting Total: -10.875


Bangor
13.50 Curtain Razer 7/2 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
14.25 Relax 7/2 - 2pt Win - 2PTS
15.00 Mission Complete 6/1 - 2pt Win - 2PTS
15.35 Roi De Rose 11/4 - 2pt Win WON+5.5PTS
16.10 Pistolet Time 8/1 - 1pt e/w placed +2PTS
16.45 Wayward Lord 4/1 - 1pt Win (OneBet Longshot -Isleofhopendreams 16/1 1pt e/w) -3PTS
17.20 Charles Onze 3/1 - 2pt Win - 2pts

Meeting Total: -3.5PTS


Daily Total -14.375PTS

Football Tips 21s April - Paddy Power enhanced specials

Arsenal v Chelsea RVP AGS Special with PP 3/1 - 2pt bet Loss 2pts
Newcastle v Stoke Cisse AGS Special with PP 3/1 - 2pt bet W Profit 6 points

Overall profit : 4pts

Racing Selections - 20th April

Fontwell 
14.00 Ninfea 2/1 - 2pt Win -2 PTS
14.30 Guydus 10/3 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.05 Overdante 3/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.40 Midnight Sail 6/4 - 2pt Win WON +3PTS
16.15 Sun Quest 6/1 - 1pt Win -1PT
16.45 Panjo Bere 15/2 1pt e/w +1.8PTS
17.15 Winning Show 12/1 1pt e/w -2PTS


Meeting Total: -4.2PTS


Ayr


Double 14.20 Lexis Boy & 14.50 Ebanour - 8/1 2pt Win -2PTS
15.20 Vintage Star 5/2 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
16.00 Divers 3/1 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
16.35 Kai Broon - 11/10 NAP 3pt Win -3PTS
17.05 Leith Walk 18/1 - 1pt e/w -2PTS
17.35 Merry King 5/1 - 2pt Win, Stormion 16/1 1pt e/w NR      -2PTS


Meeting Total: -13PTS


Daily Total -17.2PTS

Racing Selections - 19th April

Cheltenham - 19th April


Just 3 selections today as time is against me, good luck all !


14.00 Une Artiste 13/8 - 3pt win WON @7/4 +5.25 PTS
15.10 Tante Sissi 4/1 - 2pt win - 2PTS
16.20 Allthekingshorses 6/1 - 2pt win NR


Meeting Total: +3.25PTS

Racing Selections 18th April

Cheltenham 18th April
14.00 Bold Chief 11/4 -2Pt Win -2PTS
14.35 Iron Chancellor 10/1 -1pt e/w -2PTS
15.10 Native Gallery 11/2 - 1pt Win, First Fandango 16/1 0.75Pts e/w -2.5PTS
15.45 Aerial 10/3 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
16.20 Benbens 6/1 - 1pt Win -1PT
16.55 Duke of Lucca 2/1 - 3pt Win WON+6PTS
17.30 Katchmore 10/3 -2pt Win NR, (OneBet Longshot - Dark and Dangerous 20/1 0.75Pts e/w) -1.5PTS

Meeting Total: -5PTS

Golf tips - Volvo China Open

Selections
1pt EW Stephen Gallacher at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Sporting Bet) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Danny Willett at 55/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
1pt EWVictor Dubuisson at 70/1 (Bet365, 66s Various) EW (finished T4), profit 16.5pts
1pt EW Branden Grace at 60/1  (Various) W Profit 75pts
1pt EW Joost Luiten at 40/1 (Various) Loss 2pts

Total profit : 85.5pts

Tournament indicators
The European arrives in China this week for the Volvo China Open and we have quite a challenge in finding the winner.

Binhai Lake Golf Club hosts the event for the first time, so we have no course form with which to potentially reduce the field for betting purposes.  However, the course certainly throws up some other questions which we must consider in trying to determine our most likely contenders.  At almost 7,700 yards, this course is among the longest in tournament golf.  In addition, the course is open, with wide landing areas, suggesting that big hitters can thrive here.  The course has as its defence numerous water hazards.  However, perhaps more importantly, strong winds are expected to combine with the course's length to make this a stern test for golfers. Finally the bentgrass greens play firm, but slow, which should offer a little more comfort to the less than stellar putters in the field.

I have seen a number of views regarding this course, ranging from simply selecting bombers to choosing good tee to green players or good wind players.  In truth, I do not believe anything is ever quite so one-dimensional.  I believe that there is a distinct benefit for players here who are not short, but who are also able to dial in with their approach play.  The ability to scramble will inevitably be desired here as well, but greens hit is perhaps the single most critical factor here.  I do not think the very biggest hitters necessarily have an edge here as their prowess only really comes in to play on the long par 5s.  With 3 of the par 3s measuring between 246 and a staggering 287 yards, all players will be struggling to find the putting surface and an extra 20 yards driving length will be negated here.  4 of the par 4s measure below 400 yards and offer up birdie opportunities to all.  However, the par 5s all measure over 570 yards and the very longest hitters will have a potential edge here.

My selections are all pretty long off the tee, but all have demonstrable iron prowess that could see them really thrive on this course.

The selections

I have decided to overlook Ian Poulter - and it makes me quite nervous.  Poulter has a great record in Asia and is of course in fine form, having played so well at the Masters.  In addition, for the man who chased Harrington home at the Open, windy conditions will not concern.  I am going to tentatively oppose Poulter for 3 reasons.  First, Poulter has vocalised his difficulty in really dialling in to a tournament after a near miss previously.  I do have some concerns whether he is ready to go again with complete focus this week having threatened to really get in the shake at one stage at the Masters.  It sounds a little flimsy, but Poulter himself recognises this weakness.  To overcome it is to change a trend.  Also linked to this is the fact that Poulter has had successive top 10s for the first time in over 2 years.  I am not going to back with any strength that he makes it 3 in a row.  The final reason I have is that this course is extremely long and I do worry about Poulter's lack of length this week especially if the wind makes the course even longer.  

Peter Hanson is dismissed due to a poor conversion rate and no compelling reason to get him onside on this new course.  Colsaerts is also dismissed for the simple reason that he is too short in the betting at 16/1.  Any of the top 3 can get it done this week, but I believe the price for all 3 is too short to support.

Stephen Gallacher pushed Oosthuizen closest last week, driven by a sound approach game.  Gallacher is long enough off the tee and will not be phased either should the conditions worsen.  50/1 is a great quote for him, especially given the question marks surrounding many ahead of him in the betting

I really like the look of Danny Willett at this track.  Willett finished 3rd last week, ranking 8th for driving distance and 1st in greens hit.  Willett is long off the tee and his 1st in GIR really caught my eye (he is 30th overall on tour).  If Willett is dialled in here, he can really make a strong bid for the title this week.

At 11 in driving distance and 7th in greens hit, unheralded Frenchman Victor Dubuisson is worth a second glance here.  Dubuission only ranked 70th is driving distance last week, suggesting he played strategically off the tee on a number of occasions.  However, Dubuisson was 2nd only to Willett in greens hit.  In fine ball striking form this year, take the 70s on offer.

Branden Grace is a bit of a gut feel pick.  Grace was going off at 20s a few weeks ago, since which time his stock has fallen.  However, Grace has a fine tee to green game and if he finds confidence early in round 1, the European Tour's first dual winner in 2012 could again find himself in the mix.  At 60/1, I am very willing to find out.

Finally, I return to my old friend Joost Luiten, who has made my final selection a few times.  Luiten is all about ball striking, which is often let down by a less than brilliant putting stroke.  However, on these slow surfaces, I am confident that Luiten can perform well and really contend this week - 40/1 offers real value for me.

Regards

Dave

Football tips - April 17th

Both teams to score - Yes
Eng Lg2 Crawley vs Northampton 1.5pts at 10/11 (Various) W Profit 1.37pts
Eng Lg2 Shrewsbury vs Port Vale 1.5pts at 21/20 (William Hill, 18/19 BWin) Loss 1.5pts

Over 3.5 goals
Eng Champ Ipswich vs Birmingham 1pt at 2/1 (William Hill, 15/8 Paddy Power) Loss 1pt

HT/FT result
Eng Champ Bristol City vs West Ham 1.5pts W Ham HT/W Ham FT at 17/10 (Various) Loss 1.5pts

Total loss: 2.63pts

Golf tips - Valero Texas form guide

Golf tips - Valero Texas Open Form guide


Outright tips http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/golf-tips-valero-texas-open-outright.html

The form guide has proven a recent ally in recent weeks - blind backing the top 5 in the form guide would have yielded a 50/1 Masters winner in Bubba Watson and also would have meant we were on side for Tiger's victory prior to the Masters.  There have been other place finishes as well, which shows the strength of backing players who are in demonstrably good form.

Last week is the first instance in which the top 5 in the form guide failed to produce any golfers in the place positions.  This week looks tough in the respect that the form of the field in the last 3 strokeplay events is hardly stunning, save the top 2 in the list.

The usual table below then, with supporting thoughts for those players who are dismissed in the beeting, despite their strong form

Brian Davis - Davis has been a staple selection for me his last two events, placing at 125/1 and just failing to place at 50/1 last week.  However, the bookies are still happy to take him on.  At time of writing, I see only a few bookmakers now have Davis priced up, which may suggest his withdrawal from the event.  If not, the 50/1 shot this week is actually in the best form of the field on cold results alone.  He (just) misses out in my selections due to an alarmingly bad day with the flatstick on Sunday in what should have been a place finish.

Dicky Pride - another who I gave serious though to.  Pride has been in extremely solid form this year, with 2 top 10s.  GIR is important on this second shot golf course and Pride's last 4 GIR stats read 25, 15, 27, 41.  With impressive recent drvinig stats also, I would not dismiss anybody who wanted to back Pride at big prices.  My main concern is 107th in putts last time out, allied to a break for the last few weeks,

Mark Anderson - Perpetually seems to finish around the mid-point of those who made the cut and so always features well on the form guide.  Conversely, he is always dismissed by the layers as a probable also-ran.  I feel a little better about his chance than usual due to a headline 40th in driving accuracy, 43rd in GIR and 28th in putts last time out.  Still, it would surprise me to see a serious challenge for the places this week.  Decent top 20 claims and definite Spread bet chances.

Marc Turnesa - Layers still have him among the longest shots in the field and despite some consistency, I find it hard to disagree.  A very infrequent performer on the main tour, Turnesa's 15th in GIR in his two appearances this year are countered by the likelihood he will be rusty here and a class below the likely contenders.

Lee Janzen - Texan Janzen is dsmissed by the layers here and that may be a little too presumptuous.  Janzen has no form in this event and is clearly not the player he was.  However, 14th in GIR last time out and a decent performance with the flatstick makes the 200/1 quote look a little on the long side.  Janzen's scrambling stats are less than sensational, so he would have to be exceptional from tee to green to feature.

Jamie Lovemark - Long, not terribly straight and not great around the greens.  Pass.

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano - Followers of the European Tour will know this guy is a dangerous player when on form.  GFC won back to back in Asia at the end of last year and really did hit a stunning spell of form.  He has not reproduced that form yet this year, but if he does, he may have game to challenge here.  That said, he is nowhere near top gear right now and is unlikely to be so this week.

Sunghoon Kang - Not good enough with his irons on this 2nd shot golf course.  MC far more likely than any sort of challenge this week.  Putter could be his saviour.

Regards

Dave

Golf tips - Valero Texas Open Outright tips

Selections
1.5pts EW Cameron Tringale at 60/1 (Betfred, Totesport) Loss 3pts
1.5pts EW Johnson Wagner at 28/1 (Various) Loss 3pts
1pt EW Kevin Stadler at 50/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
0.5ptsEW Scott Piercy at 80/1 (Various) Loss 1pt
0.5pts EW Chris Stroud at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Coral) Loss 1pt

NEWLY ADDED 0.4pts EW Dicky Pride at 150/1 (Take 6 places with Stan James) Loss 0.8pts

Total loss : 10.8pts

Golf tips - Valero Texas form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/golf-tips-valero-texas-form-guide.html

The tournament – what to look for

The Valero Texas Open is a tricky event to forecast, given we have a course history that only dates back to 2010.  To add a further layer of complexity, Brendan Steele came here for the first time last year and duly won the event, suggesting that players can learn quickly and compete here.

However, we have a lukewarm favourite here in Matt Kuchar – a good player, but a very infrequent winner and somebody who last time out fell away alarmingly on the last day.  Therefore, great scope exists for our winner coming at a very attractive price.  On the downside, the list of potential winners can not be whittled down greatly, due to the relative infancy of the course as host for this event and the fact that few of the World’s very top players are here.  I posted my form guide at the above link – you can see that few players are in really compelling form entering the vent.

So, given all of that, how do we determine the type of player who will thrive this week?  Lack of course form brings recent form more in to focus.  Kevin Na and Brian Davis are the only players in the last 3 events who have consistently threatened to place.  Players such as Kevin Stadler come in to this event having prospered last time out.  However, of the whole field, only Johnson Wagner has won in his last 10 outings on tour.  There simply is not a lot to grasp in looking at the obvious metrics of course and recent form.

This should not be seen as a negative necessarily however.  Where there is inconsistency, so there is scope to hopefully land a big result.  Often, picking players over 50/1 for an event is an exercise in trying to find a player who might place.  This week, we are looking for players who might win, with the caveat being that we can’t exactly trust our selections as much as we usually might.

Again, we have a second shot golf course this week.  However, my belief is that scrambling ability takes on a greater emphasis here due to the undulations in the greens.  An intelligent golfer is desired around this course, who knows where to miss when he does miss and knows how to keep his discipline during a difficult spell.  This is not just about hitting greens either.  Rather, it is about hitting the right portion of the greens to take difficult 2 putt challenges out of the equation as much as possible.  I want strong players of par 4s here as well to reinforce the second shot golf course theme. 

At first glance, the 7500+ yard course may seem to demand long hitters.  However, long and errant is less desired than not so long but accurate around here if conditions remain good.

The selections

I like the credentials of Cameron Tringale this week who ranks 4^th on my system ratings, which is clearly at odds with the layers this week.  28^th and 5^th in the previous two years, Tringale seems at home on this course.  Tringale ranks 5^th in my recent GIR stats in this field and significantly was 9^th in greens last time out, when he finished 8^th overall.  Tringale also sits in the top 10 in this field for driving accuracy and is putting  slightly better than at this stage last year – a positive, as he found these greens more to his liking than most last year.   I have advised 1.5Ew here because I believe Tringale is dismissed too readily by the layers and we should try to drive home the edge if he happens to get in to contention.  I am not saying I really think he wins this week, but I am saying I want to beef up the bet on a value basis.  If Tringale plays well, there is not a lot ahead of him in the betting to believe he can not have a real tilt at the title. 

This is a home game for Johnson  Wagner on a course that Wagner clearly started to get to grips with last year, when finishing 15^th.  Wagner is a better golfer this year as well and almost went back to back, just failing to add the Humana Challenge to his Sony Open title  in January.  His form has been a little patchy since then.  However, prior to a MC last time out at the Masters, Wagner was 29^th, 4^th and 13^th.  So, clear signs his game is not far from where it needs to be.  The driver behind Wagner’s generally good form this year is his ball striking.  Prior to the Masters, Wagner was 5^th, 2^nd, 17^th, 14^th and 5^th in greens hit.  During that same run of tournaments, Wagner was in the top 10 for driving accuracy 3 times.  In short, Wagner fits the brief here very well.  Wagner is also in the top 40 for scrambling and so really has tools to go well this week.  Of the favourites, I believe he has the best credentials to get it done.

Kevin Stadler surprised me last week.  I did not think his recent game gave him a good shot at challenging at the head of the field.  He finished 4^th.  That he finished 4^th was due to really dialled in iron play.  Stadler finished 2^nd for GIR last week which is a real positive here.  I said above I want players who are able to play intelligently around the course.  Stadler ranks 14^th in Bogey Avoidance and 11^th in scrambling on tour, which, allied to good iron play (Stadler’s par 4 statistics are also strong) could be a potent combination here this week.   I really think he has a chance to challenge here if he does nothing more than continue his form.  Stadler finished a useful 36^th last year.  If we discount a MC on the bentgrass at Houston, Stadler’s form line actually reads 25^th, 24^th, 16^th, 9^th, 7^th and 4^th.  That sort of progressive form is highly compelling reading for a 50/1 shot in an otherwise inconsistent field.

A couple of longer shots to finish, but I think they have a stronger chance than the layers suggest.  Scott Piercy, along with Ryan Palmer, is the course record holder here.  So, no questions about whether he can play the course.  Piercy only finished 30^th in 2010 despite that great round and it is that inconsistency in general which sees him priced up at 80/1 for such events.  However, it is his ability to produce a stunning spell of golf and shoot a stunning score that appeals to me.  Piercy has a 5^th place at the Transitions this year having shot 62 in the final round to place.  In addition, his victory last year at the Renoe Tahoe came from three rounds in the 70s and a 61.  My hope is that in returning to this event as a recent PGA tour winner, Piercy can find his game this week and deliver again.

Chris Stroud has a fairly abject record here and was last post cut in his last event.  Hardly a ringing endorsement then.  However, a closer look at his stats gives more confidence that his chances are good here.  Before the surprise failure last time out, Stroud showed a liking for Bermuda, finishing 5^th, then 9^th and 15h.  Stroud sits 7^th on tour in bogey avoidance, which will be important here.  That’s not all.  Stroud is a good scrambler and has good total putting form this year, with a definite liking for Bermuda.  In short, I would expect Stroud to never be far from the action this week.  A hot round or two good rounds this week could be enough for a win due to his usual recent consistency at other times. 

Dicky Pride has had a much better year than I believed he would.  4 tournaments reading 5^th, 7^thth 20^th and 48^th makes pretty impressive reading.  Against that, Pride has not played for 4 weeks and his form is regressive.  Pride’s improved form this year has been largely driven by his approach game.  He has been 15^th, 27^th and 41^st in greens hit in the last 3 events.  His recent rank for greens is actually among the better players in this field.  As already mentioned, this is a second shot golf course.  Due to a lack of rounds, Pride’s scrambling stats are not readily available for comparison .  However, he sat an impressive 15^th in scrambling on tour after his last outing at the Arnold Palmer invitational and 2^nd in total putting.  In short, a repeat of this sort of form here this week could see our big outsider really go well and threaten the places.  There are much worse 150/1 shots in the field and I had to add him to the staking plan.

Regards

Dave

Racing Selections - 17th April

Exeter
14.30 Madam Noso 14/1 - 1Pt e/w placed +2.8Pts
15.00 Imperial Circus 4/1 - 2pt Win WON+8Pts
15.30 Spring Moon 5/1 - 2pt Win -2Pts
16.00 Webberys Dream 6/4 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
16.30 Rumbury Grey 4/6 NAP - 4Pt Win WON +2.67PTS

Tasty Treble  - Themilanhorse, Imperial Circus, Rumbury Grey 6/1 - 2Pt Win WON +12PTS

Meeting Total:+21.47PTS


Kempton
14.20 Call Back EVE - 3Pt Win - 3PTS
14.50 Top Benefit 3/1 - 2Pt Win -2PTS
15.20 Fighting Flynn 5/2 NAP - 3Pt Win WON +7.5PTS
15.50 Tooka 6/1 - 1pt Win -1PT
16.20 Dark Spirit 3/1 - 2pt Win - NR
16.50 Mister Dillon 6/1 -1pt Win (OneBet Longshot - Swift Lord 25/1 - 1pt e/w) -3PTS
17.20 I have Dreamed 9/4 NAP - 3Pt Win WON +6.75PTS

Meeting Total:+5.25PTS


Daily Total: +26.72PTS

Football tips - April 16th

Both teams to score - Yes
DE Bund 2 Dresden vs Fortuna 2pts at 8/11 (BetVictor, Coral) W Profit 1.45pts

To Win to Nil
FR Lg2 Nantes vs Reims 1pt Nantes at 3/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power) W Profit 3pts

Corners Handicap
Eng Prem Arsenal vs Wigan 1.5pts Wigan -5 corners at evens (Paddy Power, Stan James) Loss 1.5pts

Total profit: 2.95pts

Football tips April 15th

Half time score

FR Lg1 St Etienne vs Brest 1.5pts 0-0 at HT at 6/4 (Various) W Profit 2.25pts

HT/FT

ES Segunda Gimnastic vs Alcoron 1pt Alcoron HT/Alcoron FT at 3/1 (Ladbrokes, 29/10 188Bet) W Profit 3pts

Total Corners

Eng Prem Man U vs Aston Villa 1pt over 12 corners at 11/10 (William Hill, E Bet365) W Profit 1.1pts

DE Bund B M'gladbach vs FC Koln 1.5pts under 9 total corners at 6/5 (Bet365) Loss 1.5pts

FR Lg1 Nancy vs Bordeaux 1.5pts under 9 total corners at 5/4 (Bet365) Loss 1.5pts

Corners handicap

ES La Liga Bilbao vs Mallorca 1pt Mallorca -4 corners at 10/11 (Bet365) W Profit 0.91pts

Total profit : 4.26pts

RBC Heritage Tips - Midpoint selections

RBC Heritage Tips - Midway selections
1.5pts EW Robert Garrigus at 20/1
0.75pts EW Tommy Gainey at 80/1

Heritage outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/rbc-heritage-outright-tips.html
Heritage recent form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/rbc-heritage-recent-form-guide.html

Using the midpoint analysis, we almost landed a big tip last week, with 80/1 tip Peter Hanson surging in to the end of round 3 lead, before eventually slipping back to finish T3.

So, on to the Heritage.  I am going to look at this in respect of the overall chances, and will also consider the merits of the three tips we have still in the tournament (Blanks missed the cut); Boo Weekley enters the weekend 3rd, 3 from the lead.  Davis is 7 shots back and Furyk a seemingly massive 10 strokes away after a poor round 2.

The table below shows the midway position of all winners here since 2001.

From those who saw the Masters midway post, you will immediately see a less compelling profile for the eventual winner coming from the top 5.  Twice, the winner has come from outside the top 20, which suggests some chance still exists for the likes of Kuchar, Ogilvy and Harman at -1.  However, in 2001 eventual winner Coceres was only 6 shots back at half way, with Stewart Cink 7 shots back in 2004.  Therefore, we have a theoretical list of potential winners who are currently -2 or better, as all others would rewrite modern history in winning from here.

The results in 2001 and 2004 are to an extent anomalies as since then all winners have been top 10 coming in to the weekend, with 5 of the last 7 winners coming from the top 2.  It is difficult to charge here; the tiny greens mean that scrambling is likely to feature heavily in a players round, which obviously affects the scope for making birdies.  With Knost being 2 clear and 4 clear of 4th, chasers will hope he falters to bring the possibility of winning from behind more keenly in to play.

The table below shows the midway position of players who eventually place.

Twice then, players around 50th at halfway have made the place paying positions.  Although still highly unlikely, this still offers small hope for our Furyk bet, although the 14/1 place quotes available now really do not appeal.  Luke Donald needs top 8 here ro retain his No.1 spot and we became accustomed to weekend surges in to place positions last year.  Donald has 6 shots to find and around 50 players to pass.  To see him 11/1 for a place is crazy; he will really struggle to make top 8 from there.

The final place positions are littered with players who have come from outside the top 10 at halfway. Any player who fires on Saturday and Sunday has a real chance of making the top 5.  Last year, -8 was tied 3rd after round 2.  By the end, the place positions had "only" moved on to -10.  -9 was a placed in 2010, and -6 was tied 4th at halfway.  So, any player from -2 who can shoot -7 or -8 over the weekend has a real chance of featuring.

So, our winner is likely to come from the final group if stats are to be believed, although there is certainly a chance that a player can make a run from deep.  In the place market, there is real scope for any player placed fairly well who then goes on to have a good weekend with a pair of rounds in the mid-high 60s.

Next, let's look at the players -2 or better and see if we can find some value propositions for the weekend.  The usual table below then, which shows how players fare when placed in the top 20 after two rounds.

Tommy Gainey had a string of good results last year, clearly led by a strong performance when in contention.  He ranks first here and is the only player who averages an improvement over the weekend.  With 9 previous top 20 halfway results to analyse, this is a pretty strong indicator.  At the other end of the scale, caution must be exercised over Vaughn Taylor, who repeatedly falls away at the weekend when in the mix.

Our outright hopes look uncertain too in this analysis, with both Boo Weekley and Brian Davis amongst the poorest players over the weekend.  My counter to that is that Boo was unbackable pretty much any way you looked at him until a few weeks ago.  Since then, he has found his game.  The two-time winner here should feel very much at home in this surround and we should have confidence that he can defy the general stats.  Brian Davis has also gone on to place in the last two events and has been at one with his game in recent weeks.  Boo is a best price of 9/1 and I can not advise him to anybody at that price.  However, the pre-tournament price of 70s does look excellent right now.  Davis is still available at his original quote of 50/1.  The 12.5/1 (11.5 minus the win part of the bet) place part of the bet is marginal now though, as only 4 places are available.

The other player to catch my eye in this analysis is Snedeker.  In truth, we have a field here with few who regularly contend.  Snedeker has the most top 20s in the field and generally does quite well over the weekend.  Given he charged last year to win this event, his chances are noted..............by both me and the layers.  5 shots from the lead, I can not advise 9/1 as being a value proposition.

A final word on the final pairing then.  Our previous analysis showed a strong trend for players winning from the final group in the last 7 years.  However, we must consider the calibre of those players: Furyk, Gay (won by 10 shots that year), Weekley (twice, when in Ryder cup standard form), Baddeley and Lonard.

Lonard aside, we see proven PGA tour winners on the list.  Knost is not in that calibre.  He generally decelerates and I would be surprised to see him winning come Sunday, even with his 2 stroke lead.  Petterson generally goes backwards also, but he is streaky and has won 4 times on the PGA tour.  He is a live threat here and is rightly favourite in my eyes given the field and the gaps that exist.  At 6/1, it is tempting to back him win only, but I think he is still more likely to go backwards than he is to shoot the likely -12 required (minimum, if the weather stays OK) to win the event.

the next table is the view of players in the top 10 at midway, which includes those down to -2.

One reason I kept those outside the top 10 in the list is to highlight that Gainey's consistency remains when right near the top of the leaderboard.  Snedeker's case is even more compelling when looking at the top 10 stats too.  Brian Davis offers more encouragement here as well.  It seems that when he is really in with a chance, he actually performs better than when not truly challenging.  In truth though, we have little to go on in this list as only 8 of the top 23 have 5 or more top 10 halfway positions to analyse.

Gainey is one of those with 5 or more top 10s.  The question then is whether he can make enough improvement to get in to the place positions and whether the price is value for that to happen.  The thing I like about betting on Gainey is that he usually gives me enough indicators of where his game is at to aid a decision.  At the start of the season, Gainey was open about his game, lamenting his poor approach play in particular.  He cited his wedges being off as a major problem and this showed in his slow start to the season.  However, the noises from Gainey have been much more positive of late.  Add in his charge to 3rd last year and I like the 80/1 quotes.  I will take option that rather than a place price because Gainey is one of those well capable of a birdie blitz.  Of those at -2, none have a great chance of winning of course, but he is one of those who could make a run at it.

My other thought is Robert Garrigus.  Garrigus is turning in to a class act, with excellent GIR stats and a fast improving short game.  Significantly for our thoughts here, Garrigus has just missed out twice this year after charging from deep to threaten.  In the Humana Challenge Garrigus finished 2nd after falling (I think) to +6 early in his first round.  He rallied in the first round, but was still 126th after day 1.  So, a stunning charge through to end up 2nd.  In the recent Transitions, Garrigus was 34th at halfway but made the play-off.  He played that first play-off hole well too, missing a 6 foot birdie putt to give the title to Donald.  But, very encouraging to see such an approach to 6 feet given the pressure of trying to edge out Donald and Furyk in the play-off.  Garrigus has a real chance at 20/1 if he gets his game in order.  I can mentally discount Knost, which means he is 2 shots from the virtual lead if I am correct.  Let's take the 20/1.


RBC Heritage Tips - Midway selections
1.5pts EW Robert Garrigus at 20/1
0.75pts EW Tommy Gainey at 80/1

Regards

Dave

Football tips 14th April

Half time score
DE Bund Kaiserslautern vs Nurnberg 1.5pts 0-0 at 24/13 (BWin, 9/5 Boyle Sports) Loss 1.5pts

Both teams to score - Yes
DE Bund Bayern Munich vs Mainz 1.5pts at Evens (Ladbrokes, 10/11 William Hill, Stan James) Loss 1.5pts
IT Serie B Reggina vs Crotone 2pts at 3/4 (BWin, 8/11 Various) W Profit 1.5pts
SC Div 1 Ross County vs Dundee 2.5pts at 10/11 (William Hill, 5/6 Bet365, BWin) Loss 2.5pts
SC Div 3 Stranraer vs Peterhead 2.5pts at 4/7 (Various) Loss 2.5pts

Over 3.5 goals
SC Div 1 Livingston vs Ayr 1.5pts at 9/5 (Sporting bet, 7/4 William Hill) Loss 1.5pts
SC Div 2 Arbroath vs Forfar 1.5pts at 6/4 (Paddy Power, 11/8 Boylesports) Loss 1.5pts

Asian Handicap 
ES La Liga Real Madrid -3 vs Gijon 1pt at 21/20 (Bet365, BetVictor) Loss 1pt

Highest Scoring Half
ES Segunda Murcia vs Hercules 1.5pts 1st Half highest scoring at 9/4 (William Hill, 11/5 Sporting Bet) Loss 1.5pts
Eng Lg 2 Swindon vs Plymouth 2pts 2nd half highest scoring at 6/5 (William Hill, Coral) W Profit 2.4pts
SC Div 1 Partick vs Raith 2pts 2nd half highest scoring at 11/10 (BetVictor, SkyBet) W Proft 2.2pts

HT/FT
ES Segunda Elche vs Cartagena 1.5pts Elche HT/Elche FT at 6/4 (Paddy Power, 7/5 Stan James) W Profit 2.25pts
Eng Conf Hayes vs Mansfield 1pt Mansfield HT/Mansfield FT at 5/2 (188Bet, 23/10 Paddy Power) Loss 1pt
ES Segunda Murcia vs Hercules 1pt Hercules HT/Hercules FT at 10/3 (Ladbrokes, 33/10 188Bet) W Profit 3.33pts
ES Primera Levante vs Barcelona 1.5pts Barcelona HT/Barcelona FT at 8/11 (Coral, 8/13 various) Loss 1.5pts

Total Corners
IT Seria A Milan vs Genoa 2pts over 12 corners at 6/4 (BetVictor) Postponed : Void

Corners Handicap
Eng Prem Norwich vs Man City 1.5pts Man City -2 at 21/20 (Bet365, Evens Ladbrokes) Loss 2pts

Total loss : -6.32pts

Aintree 14th April

Aintree 14th April
13.10 Arabian Heights 4/1 - 1pt Win
13.45 Simonsig 4/9 Win (No Bet) Super Duty 12/1 1.5Pts e/w +3.75Pts
14.15 Sprinter Sacre 1/6 Win (No Bet) WON
14.50 Oscar Whisky 9/4 - 2Pt Win WON+4.5PTS
15.25 Marufo 7/1 1pt e/w -2PTS
16.15 See Below Selections
17.05 Constant Contact 9/1 1pt e/w, Kealigolane 20/1 1pt e/w -4PTS
17.35 Population 3/1 - 2Pt Win Howaboutnow 25/1 1pt e/w (OneBet Longshot Lataradud 40/1 - 1pt e/w) -6PTS



16.15 Grand National - Ante Post Selections


Midnight Haze 125/1 (Onebet Longshot) 0.5Pts e/w -1pt
Shakalakboomboom 25/1 1pt e/w   -2PTs
Junior 14/1 e/w 1pt  -2PTs
Giles Cross 14/1 1pt e/w -2PTs



Tasty Treble - Simonsig, Sprinter Sacre, Oscar Whisky 4/1 - 3Pt Win Won a@5/1 +15PTs


Meeting Total +3.25 PTS


Lots of thrills and spills as usual this week at Aintree and very sad to see the loss of two horses in synchronised and according to pete. Another sad day for racing and respect goes out to all connections.

Aintree 13th April

13th April
14.00 Darlan 6/4 NAP - 4pt Win WON@7/4 +7PTS
14.30 Join Together 5/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS 
15.05 Albertas Run 3/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.40 Triangular 7/1 -2pt Win -2PTS, Fabalu 16/1 - 1pt e/w -2PTS Paradis de Thaix 25/1 1pt e/w  +6.25 PTS(OneBet Longshot) 
16.15 Knock a Hand 12/1 - 1.5pts e/w, Harry Topper 18/1 1pt e/w -5PTS
16.50 Its a Gimme 5/1 - 2pt Win, Art Professor 20/1 1pt e/w (OneBet Longshot) -4PTS
17.25 Call Me a Star 3/1 - 2PT Win, Hidden Lite 10/1 1pt e/w -4PTS


Meeting Total: -5.75 PTS


Poor day today with a few favourites taken on and failed in doing so! The gamble didnt pay off but we will be back tomorrow for more !

Football tips 13th April

Both teams to score - Yes
IT Serie B Juve Stabbia vs Padova 2pts at 8/11 (BetVictor, William Hill) Loss 2pts

Over 2.5goals
FR Lg2 Le Mans vs Amiens 1.5pts at 6/4 (Paddy Power, 7/5 Boyle, Stan James) W Profit 2.25pts

Over 3.5 goals
DE Bund 2 Hansa Rostock vs Frankfurt FSV 1pt at 21/10 (Sporting Bet, Stan James) W Profit 2.1pts

Corners handicap
Eng Champ Southampton vs Reading 1.5pts Reading +1 corner at Evens (Paddy Power, 10/11 Betfred) Loss 1.5pts

Total profit : 0.85pts

Golf betting - Maybank Malaysian Open Tips

Hi all,

Time is my enemy this week.  However, Maybank Malaysian Open tips are as follows

1.5pts EW Cabrera-Bello at 45/1 W Profit 15.875pts
1pt EW Mark Foster at 80/1 Loss 2pts
1pt EW Marcus Fraser at 80/1 Loss 2pts
1pt EW Kiradech Aphibarnrat ay 100/1 Loss 2pts

Total profit : 9.875pts

Aintree Selections

12th April 


14.00 3m 0f 110yrds Class 1 BGC Partners Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo plus)
Big Bucks Win 2/9 - No Bet
Across The Bay 100/1 - OneBet Longshot - 3 places 1/5 odds 0.5Pts e/w +10PTS

14. 30 2m 0f 110yrds Class 1 Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (4-yo)

Countrywide Flame 5/1 - 2Pt Win -2PTS

15.05 3m 1f Class 1 Betfred Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (5yo plus)
 Burton Port 9/2 -2Pt Win -2PTS

15.40 2m 5f 110yrds Class 2 John Smith s Fox Hunters Chase (National Course) (6yo plus)

My Way De Solzen 7/1 - 1.5pts e/w -3PTS

16.15 Class 1 Matalan Co Uk Red Rum Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (5yo Plus)

Edgardo Sol 11/2 - 2pt Win +11PTS

16.50 2m 4f Class 1 Betfred Manifesto Novices Chase (Grade 1) (5yo plus)

Al Ferof 11/10 -3Pt Win -3PTS

17.25 3m 0f 110yrds Class 1 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (4yo plus)

Son of Flicka 11/1 1pt e/w -2PTS

Meeting Total: +9PTS

13th April
14.00 Darlan 6/4 NAP - 4pt Win
14.30 Join Together 5/1 - 2pt Win
15.05 Albertas Run 3/1 - 2pt Win
15.40 Triangular 7/1 -2pt Win, Fabalu 16/1 - 1pt e/w Paradis de Thaix 25/1 1pt e/w (OneBet Longshot)
16.15 Knock a Hand 12/1 - 1.5pts e/w, Harry Topper 18/1 1pt e/w
16.50 Its a Gimme 5/1 - 2pt Win, Art Professor 20/1 1pt e/w (OneBet Longshot)
17.25 Call Me a Star 3/1 - 2PT Win, Hidden Lite 10/1 1pt e/w


Meeting Total:




14th April 


16.15 Grand National - Ante Post Selections


Midnight Haze 125/1 (Onebet Longshot)
Shakalakboomboom 25/1 e/w
Junior 14/1 e/w
Giles Cross 14/1


For a full list of runners and riders follow this link:-http://www.oddschecker.com/grand-national-betting-guide.html


More selections for Thursday & Friday to follow.....