The recent from guide continues to be a very strong indicator when considering prospective winners on the PGA tour. Last week, Bubba entered the Masters in 3rd place in the form table and of course went on to win. Put simply, a player who has demonstrated consistently in their last few strokeplay events that their all-round game is in good shape will be in the mix again if that form continues at the next event.
The usual form guide is given below, with some thoughts as to the chances of those who head the form guide, plus those dismissed by layers, despite showing decent form in recent weeks.
Luke Donald heads the betting here, which is no surprise for the current world No.1. Donald has not been outside the top 3 in the last 3 years and won his last non-Major strokeplay event. He would have won last year too, with only a stunning charge from Brandt Snedeker denying him the win in a play-off. Whilst Donald finished a distant 32nd at the Masters, he finished the event well and clearly has a great chance here. Donald is 6th in the recent form guide as well, so in good form with a win of course two events ago driving this. In form terms, it is easy to like the credentials of Kuchar, who almost won the Masters last week and is in fine and characteristically consistent form. Ernie Els is playing some great golf from tee to green and is starting to find a little more on the greens - at least he was until Texas two weeks ago. However, he has definite claims here. Els has missed out on his last 3 visits, but had a run of 10th, 3rd, 7th and 2nd before that. Former winner Jim Furyk finished well at the Masters and was edged out by Donald in a play-off in the last month. Bud Cauley is playing some great golf and the 40/1 quotes could look silly come Sunday as he continues to demonstrate the right credentials to potentially win on tour soon. Bo Van Pelt surprised by not putting up a better challenge at the Masters. However, he truly got things right on Sunday, shooting the round of the week to claim yet another top 20. 10th, 13th and 3rd in the last 5 years here, he has a clear chance. Clearly, those at the head of the form guide have real chances to challenge this week and not all of them are so short in odds to make their price unappealing (Cauley probably the best example of this from the top 5 in the form guide)
Brian Davis - Although quite well covered by layers at 15th in the betting and 50/1, worth mentioning here. Davis is in form and, using the form guides as a strong indicator last time out, he landed us a place pay out at 125/1 quotes. His form is interesting. 10th for driving accuracy at the Shell Houston, Davis will have an important advantage with his approach play if he can continue that form this week. Davis putted his way to 4th last time out, with his iron play slightly below the desired brief for this week. However, 14th in greens in the previous event hints that we could have a live challenger here. Davis lost a play-off here in 2010 and finished a creditable 21st last year also. In short, a very live contender. I would not consider 50/1 on Davis often, but it is worthy of serious thought this week. Paddy Power opened at 80/1, which is a clear mistake.
George McNeill - No real form here in the past, but a recent win at Puerto Rico offers encouragement. Solid all round stats at Puerto Rico replaced by indifferent driving accuracy and GIR in the last two events. McNeill has something to find here if he is to feature.
Greg Owen - Owen has an 18th in 2005 as the only glimmer of encouragement here in the past. However, his recent form is good, with good GIR stats in the last 3 outings. Owen could go well here if he continues this form, although a place finish is a big leap of faith.
Kevin Stadler - Stadler missed the cut here last year and met the same fate when last playing in 2005. However, Stadler missed out last time and he has started to really struggle to find greens, despite a 22nd in driving accuracy last time out. As an outsider, one to swerve.
Will Claxton - utterly dismissed by layers, which is an over reaction. Claxton's useful recent form has been built upon an ability to hit greens, ranking 2, 15, 13 and 28 in his last four outings for GIR. He would need to step up with the putter to really challenge here, but a top 20 place could be worthy of consideration. Debutant here.
James Driscoll - 8th last time out at the Shell Houston due largely to a fine display with the flatstick, Driscoll fits the alternative brief here. Namely, if you can't hit greens with the best, make sure you scramble and putt well. A big negative that in 5 attempts here, Driscoll has 0 top 50s. Tough to back with any confidence given record here, but Driscoll will go well if (huge if) his GIR stats improve markedly this week.
Mark Anderson - Anderson continues to play solid golf, with a further top 30 last time out. However, a forgettable tee to green game last time out will leave him too much to do this week if repeated.
Regards
Dave
No comments:
Post a Comment