1.5pts EW Robert Garrigus at 20/1
0.75pts EW Tommy Gainey at 80/1
Heritage outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/rbc-heritage-outright-tips.html
Heritage recent form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/rbc-heritage-recent-form-guide.html
Using the midpoint analysis, we almost landed a big tip last week, with 80/1 tip Peter Hanson surging in to the end of round 3 lead, before eventually slipping back to finish T3.
So, on to the Heritage. I am going to look at this in respect of the overall chances, and will also consider the merits of the three tips we have still in the tournament (Blanks missed the cut); Boo Weekley enters the weekend 3rd, 3 from the lead. Davis is 7 shots back and Furyk a seemingly massive 10 strokes away after a poor round 2.
The table below shows the midway position of all winners here since 2001.
From those who saw the Masters midway post, you will immediately see a less compelling profile for the eventual winner coming from the top 5. Twice, the winner has come from outside the top 20, which suggests some chance still exists for the likes of Kuchar, Ogilvy and Harman at -1. However, in 2001 eventual winner Coceres was only 6 shots back at half way, with Stewart Cink 7 shots back in 2004. Therefore, we have a theoretical list of potential winners who are currently -2 or better, as all others would rewrite modern history in winning from here.
The results in 2001 and 2004 are to an extent anomalies as since then all winners have been top 10 coming in to the weekend, with 5 of the last 7 winners coming from the top 2. It is difficult to charge here; the tiny greens mean that scrambling is likely to feature heavily in a players round, which obviously affects the scope for making birdies. With Knost being 2 clear and 4 clear of 4th, chasers will hope he falters to bring the possibility of winning from behind more keenly in to play.
The table below shows the midway position of players who eventually place.
Twice then, players around 50th at halfway have made the place paying positions. Although still highly unlikely, this still offers small hope for our Furyk bet, although the 14/1 place quotes available now really do not appeal. Luke Donald needs top 8 here ro retain his No.1 spot and we became accustomed to weekend surges in to place positions last year. Donald has 6 shots to find and around 50 players to pass. To see him 11/1 for a place is crazy; he will really struggle to make top 8 from there.
The final place positions are littered with players who have come from outside the top 10 at halfway. Any player who fires on Saturday and Sunday has a real chance of making the top 5. Last year, -8 was tied 3rd after round 2. By the end, the place positions had "only" moved on to -10. -9 was a placed in 2010, and -6 was tied 4th at halfway. So, any player from -2 who can shoot -7 or -8 over the weekend has a real chance of featuring.
So, our winner is likely to come from the final group if stats are to be believed, although there is certainly a chance that a player can make a run from deep. In the place market, there is real scope for any player placed fairly well who then goes on to have a good weekend with a pair of rounds in the mid-high 60s.
Next, let's look at the players -2 or better and see if we can find some value propositions for the weekend. The usual table below then, which shows how players fare when placed in the top 20 after two rounds.
Tommy Gainey had a string of good results last year, clearly led by a strong performance when in contention. He ranks first here and is the only player who averages an improvement over the weekend. With 9 previous top 20 halfway results to analyse, this is a pretty strong indicator. At the other end of the scale, caution must be exercised over Vaughn Taylor, who repeatedly falls away at the weekend when in the mix.
Our outright hopes look uncertain too in this analysis, with both Boo Weekley and Brian Davis amongst the poorest players over the weekend. My counter to that is that Boo was unbackable pretty much any way you looked at him until a few weeks ago. Since then, he has found his game. The two-time winner here should feel very much at home in this surround and we should have confidence that he can defy the general stats. Brian Davis has also gone on to place in the last two events and has been at one with his game in recent weeks. Boo is a best price of 9/1 and I can not advise him to anybody at that price. However, the pre-tournament price of 70s does look excellent right now. Davis is still available at his original quote of 50/1. The 12.5/1 (11.5 minus the win part of the bet) place part of the bet is marginal now though, as only 4 places are available.
The other player to catch my eye in this analysis is Snedeker. In truth, we have a field here with few who regularly contend. Snedeker has the most top 20s in the field and generally does quite well over the weekend. Given he charged last year to win this event, his chances are noted..............by both me and the layers. 5 shots from the lead, I can not advise 9/1 as being a value proposition.
A final word on the final pairing then. Our previous analysis showed a strong trend for players winning from the final group in the last 7 years. However, we must consider the calibre of those players: Furyk, Gay (won by 10 shots that year), Weekley (twice, when in Ryder cup standard form), Baddeley and Lonard.
Lonard aside, we see proven PGA tour winners on the list. Knost is not in that calibre. He generally decelerates and I would be surprised to see him winning come Sunday, even with his 2 stroke lead. Petterson generally goes backwards also, but he is streaky and has won 4 times on the PGA tour. He is a live threat here and is rightly favourite in my eyes given the field and the gaps that exist. At 6/1, it is tempting to back him win only, but I think he is still more likely to go backwards than he is to shoot the likely -12 required (minimum, if the weather stays OK) to win the event.
the next table is the view of players in the top 10 at midway, which includes those down to -2.
One reason I kept those outside the top 10 in the list is to highlight that Gainey's consistency remains when right near the top of the leaderboard. Snedeker's case is even more compelling when looking at the top 10 stats too. Brian Davis offers more encouragement here as well. It seems that when he is really in with a chance, he actually performs better than when not truly challenging. In truth though, we have little to go on in this list as only 8 of the top 23 have 5 or more top 10 halfway positions to analyse.
Gainey is one of those with 5 or more top 10s. The question then is whether he can make enough improvement to get in to the place positions and whether the price is value for that to happen. The thing I like about betting on Gainey is that he usually gives me enough indicators of where his game is at to aid a decision. At the start of the season, Gainey was open about his game, lamenting his poor approach play in particular. He cited his wedges being off as a major problem and this showed in his slow start to the season. However, the noises from Gainey have been much more positive of late. Add in his charge to 3rd last year and I like the 80/1 quotes. I will take option that rather than a place price because Gainey is one of those well capable of a birdie blitz. Of those at -2, none have a great chance of winning of course, but he is one of those who could make a run at it.
My other thought is Robert Garrigus. Garrigus is turning in to a class act, with excellent GIR stats and a fast improving short game. Significantly for our thoughts here, Garrigus has just missed out twice this year after charging from deep to threaten. In the Humana Challenge Garrigus finished 2nd after falling (I think) to +6 early in his first round. He rallied in the first round, but was still 126th after day 1. So, a stunning charge through to end up 2nd. In the recent Transitions, Garrigus was 34th at halfway but made the play-off. He played that first play-off hole well too, missing a 6 foot birdie putt to give the title to Donald. But, very encouraging to see such an approach to 6 feet given the pressure of trying to edge out Donald and Furyk in the play-off. Garrigus has a real chance at 20/1 if he gets his game in order. I can mentally discount Knost, which means he is 2 shots from the virtual lead if I am correct. Let's take the 20/1.
RBC Heritage Tips - Midway selections
1.5pts EW Robert Garrigus at 20/1
0.75pts EW Tommy Gainey at 80/1
Regards
Dave
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