Golf tips - Ballantine's Championship Tips

Ballentines Selections
1.5pts EW Alex Noren 28/1 Loss 3pts
1pt e/w KT Kim 25/1 Loss 2pts
0.5pts e/w Min-Gyu Cho 250/1 Loss 1pt

Total loss : 6 ponits

I am going to keep my preview fairly brief this week.  Firstly, it is too close to the start of the event for my ramblings to really add any value.  Secondly, I have not been able to amass enough confidence from my analysis to start telling anybody definitively that I am on the right track this week.
The Ballantine's Championship is played for only the second time at Blackstone Golf Course and the course has few really defining attributes to help us to eliminate competitors this week.  Playing a fairly average in length 7302 yards par 72, distance will not be a major concern for the golfers teeing it up this week.  Lee Westwood won the event last year, driven by his usually accurate approach game and a very solid putting display.  However, this is not necessarily the brief as the two Korean players to have made the place positions were outside the top 50 for GIR, but putted impeccably.  Throughout the upper reaches of the leaderboard, players who prospered for differing reasons proliferate.  Therefore, it is very difficult to pinpoint exactly which type of golfer we want here.  Of course, the player that drives great, dials in his irons and putts like a dream will be very hard to beat, but golf is never quite like that.
Although there are some trees here, players should not be overly threatened from the tee.  This appears to be a second shot golf course more than a driving specialist golf course with touch around the green likely to be important in keeping bogeys from the card.
The weather is likely to be less than ideal this week, although winds should not significantly affect the players' game.  It is reported to be cold here for the most part, which may add a little length to the course, but not to any significant degree if the forecasts are correct.
This is in essence a thinker's course, with the brief really on eliminating errors and finding the right part of the greens.  Conditions were good here last year, but Westwood only won with a score of -12, reinforcing the fact that players need to manage their way around the course rather than try to overpower it.  The course is also quite physically demanding, which may affect a player's mental state as the rounds wear on.

I have only selected 3 players, because I have really struggled to feel comfortable with my efforts to beat the layers and the field this week. Put simply, this event is more of a lottery than most. Last week, on a first time course, it was actually easier for me to find a brief to fill than it is here. Therefore, I want players with form, an affinity with Korea and ideally this track from last year and a sound all round game.

The one thing I do like about this event is the fact that I can leave alone Adam Scott at 8/1 and Ian Poulter at 14/1. Both were very prominent at the Masters and both have fine records in Asia. However, Asia is slightly too big a continent for me to make them a shoe-in every time they tee up. Scott has played very sparingly this year and can't be trusted at win only odds. I certainly am not going to have any place considerations for Scott given his lack of tournament play. Poulter finished well last week, but in my mind I see Poulter winning on faster greens in finer climates. I am not convinced he will stick at it enough here to get the job done. His design company and their presence at this event is a distraction that gives me additional question marks as well. Both can win, but at the prices, they must be overlooked.

So to Noren then. That he showed up last week has been a sign for many to tip him. However, both of his wins came on the back of abject finishes last year. Noren is a bit like Bubba in the sense that he can just crash in from seemingly nowhere and win an event. Whilst I take some encouragement from his 5th last week, I take more from the acclimatisation exercise and prominent display here last year. Noren can take advantage of the par 5s like few others if on his game. One thing the weekend charge of last week does suggest is that he is honing his game and dialling in his irons. In this field, I think 28/1 is outstanding value. Cold conditions will not overly upset the Celtic Manor Welsh Open Champion of 2011, nor will the man who waltzed to a 7 stroke victory in ever worsening conditions in Sweden be fazed by a chill wind. Take the 28s and enjoy the ride.

I am a big fan of Kyung Tae-Kim despite backing him last year as he agonisingly finished 6th at the WGC last year at 250/1. Despite this headline result and a consistent top 50 world ranking (admittedly driven by results in Asia), the layers continue to readily dismiss Kim........but not in Asia. A decent field has assembled here from the European Tour, but Kim's stellar record on the Asian Tour sees him quoted at 25s here. However, I still like the price. Noren is the player I most like to win this week, but Kim is the player I most trust. Expect strong iron play and proficiency around the green and expect a contending 4 days from one of Korea and Asia's finest players.

Finally, I have been digging a little deeper and believe I have found some value in the form of Min-Gyu Cho. Cho is the second best ranked Korean in the world at this event behind Kim and yet is dismissed here in an event which saw 2 unheralded Koreans place last year. Cho's career path has been forged mainly on the Japanese tour and he comes in here on the back of a 6th place last time out,where he was top Korean player, ahead of KT Kim. A closer look at his stats and you see that Cho leads the Japanese tour for birdies, despite a less than impressive record with the driver. Driving is not so critical here and clearly Cho is capable of going low if in the groove. As 250/1 shots go, I believe this player can certainly challenge if he gets his game right this week

As I said, a brief summary..........

Regards

DAVE