2.5pts EW Luke Donald at 14/1 (Various, take 6 places) W Profit 6.25pts
1pt EW Jason Dufner at 40/1 (Various, take 6 places) Loss 2pts
Previously advised
1pt EW Francesco Molinari at 66/1 (take the 6 places with Ladbrokes or Bet365) Loss 2pts
1.5pts EW Sergio Garcia at 50/1 (Now 45/1, still with 6 places available) Loss 3pts
Total loss -0.75pts
Players Championship course form guide - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-players-championship-form.html
Player form guide - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-players-championship-player.html
Course guide
Once again, players assemble at TPC Sawgrass for the unofficial 5th Major of the season, the Players Championship. The field justifies the billing a little more than last year, with Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy opting out of the event last year due in part to their European Tour dedication. This year, 9 of the World's top 10 and all bar Charl Schwartzel and Bubba Watson of the World's top 30 tee it up.
Sawgrass is a tough course but in 2010, the field managed to score better than par on average. In 2011, the field equalled par; Sawgrass ranked the 22nd toughest course on tour. If the wind blows, Sergio's -5 winning score of 2008 might be closer to the winning score this week. This seems quite unlikely however, with good conditions in prospect. Expect perhaps 50 players to beat par this week if weather stays fair.
The 17th hole is perhaps the most famous par 3 in golf and will cause its fair share of problems. However, in fair conditions, this a somewhat over-hyped premise. Last year, the 17th played 7th hardest on the course, with the par 3 8th and 10th playing tougher. The theme of the golf course is in finding players that can keep control of the golf ball as players going off line can be easily found out here. The 17th will come in to its own on day 4 when the pressure is highest for the leading contenders. That and the water lined 18th should assure that no player will be truly home until they hit the final green and hole the final putt.
In looking at course characteristics, it is valuable to look at players with prowess on par 5s. The 4 par 5s on the course are also the 4 easiest holes on the course. Any player that can score in the region of -8 on the par 5s has a very good chance of featuring come Sunday as double digits under par will see a player challenging for a place.
As mentioned in my form guide earlier, a number of players arrive in compelling form, but anybody not at one with their game will struggle here. Sawgrass rewards accuracy. Dialled in players from tee to green and players who can scramble well to recover when out of position are desired. Bermudagrass greens have been used at Sawgrass since the 2007 overhaul prompted by the event moving from March to May in the calendar. Bermudagrass prowess is important also and a key reason that I overlooked Oosthuizen this week despite 3/2/1 in the last 3 events.
I also have to give consideration to the fact that for for the second time in 3 events, we play at a Pete Dye design this week. This was a major factor in our successful call on Jason Dufner for his maiden win a fortnight ago and is considered again here.
The selections
Since successfully backing Luke Donald for the Transitions, I have found it easy enough to leave the tournament favourite out of my staking plan on the PGA tour. I can do the same here, although double figure quotes make the place price on McIlroy difficult to ignore. McIlroy is omitted for 2 headline reasons. First, McIlroy contends strongly virtually every week, but his conversion rate remains simply too low to trust a win only quote. I believe he should have gone on and won last week. He may do so this, but I just can not trust he will. The 2nd reason is 2 MCs in two attempts here in 2009 and 2010. He has come a long way since then, but this is enough for me to leave him alone.
Lee Westwood and Luke Donald are next in the betting. Westwood is in good form and really contended for the Masters, but I always fear that his less than stellar putting will allow somebody else to win, even if Westwood plays well. He fits the ball-striking bill brilliantly here and surely contends, but I have to leave him out.
Luke Donald however, does make my selections. Put simply, Luke Donald has been sensational on bermudagrass layouts in the last couple of years, a fact that is furthered when Florida positives are taken in to account. In the last 15 Bermudagrass strokeplay events Donald has entered (according to my stats), Luke Donald has two 1st places (both in Florida, including the recent Transitions), 6 place finishes and only two finishes outside the top 10. Simply stunning form and I am unable to omit him here. Donald's 3rd last time out serves as notice that he is in good form and 4th last year confirms he can play well here. Finally, the new, improved Luke Donald repeatedly ups his game when he has to fight for World number 1. Do not be surprised to see Luke Donald land a big prize this week.
As per my player form guide comments.................Francesco Moilnari did us proud last week, landing the Open De Espana and making it 3 consecutive winning weeks for us. The victory was merely an affirmation of Molinari's good form with a 6th and 1st in the last 2 events being preceded by 4 further top 20s in succession. Molinari fits the bill here for ball striking and accuracy off the tee - he was 1st in greens last week and 7th in accuracy. Also, in assessing Molinari's last 5 appearances in Florida, I see another encouraging trend. Molinari has been 14th, 9th, 3rd, MC and 13th, with the best 3 results coming on bermudagrass surfaces. In fact, the 9th finish was here in 2010, which serves further to underline his credentials. There is a lot to like about him this week. The 70s have gone, but the 66s still holds plenty of appeal and he makes my team this week.
Finally, I am going back to Jason Dufner. I said much about Dufner before he won last time and see no reason to neglect him now. The much improved field does not faze me here as he was 5th on the Pete Dye designed Whistling Straits course for the 2010 PGA Championship and 2nd a year later at Atlanta National Golf Club - again a Dye design. In addition to the Pete Dye link, I loved the ballstriking and scrambling credentials of Dufner, allied to course form at the Zurich classic. Very much the same applies here. In 3 attempts, Dufner has a 32nd and a 6th last year, with a MC in between those results. The 6th last year serves as warning that he can go well here and I am happy to have him on side at a just good enough 40/1.
No comments:
Post a Comment