Crowne Plaza outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-invitational.html
Crowne Plaze course form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-crowne-plaza-course-form.html
An interesting field assembles this week for the Crowne Plaza Invitational, with strong contenders but no clear favourite heading the field. At least, that is the bookmaker's view. Players Champion Matt Kuchar, course form expert Zach Johnson (see my course form comments at the link above, where Johnson ranks No.1) and first time winner Rickie Fowler head up the betting. Just behind are Fedex Cup Leader and twice winner in 3 events Jason Dufner.
Bombers need not apply here this week. Or at least, the ability to play accurate golf greatly outweighs the need to be long. As always, such demands usually point to having onside players in demonstrable form. Perhaps more than recent events, putting is also a strong factor here and so players who have demonstrated all round proficiency in recent weeks should be strongly considered this week.
Last year, eventual winner David Toms arrived in great form, which culminated in his narrow failure to win the Players Championship immediately prior to this event. Expect a player near the head of our form guide here to be in contention deep in to Sunday.
As usual, some thoughts below the usual table on those players in great form, but dismissed by the layers.
Jonas Blixt. Blixt was a go to option of mine on the Nationwide tour last year. Blixt placed 5 times in the second half of the season, but was often a great value price. With 3 straight top 15s on the main tour, there are clear signs that Blixt is starting to feel at home. However, at a best price 70/1, it is clear that bookies are still ready to take him on. Blixt is an interesting option here too. I mentioned earlier that putting is important around this track. It is noteworthy that Blixt has ranked 19th and 5th for total putts in his last two events. These are his best 2 results of the season, both achieved on Bentgrass. Blixt is straight rather than long and should find this event fits his eye quite nicely. 3rd last time out, also in Texas, I would not actively discourage anybody from Blixt this week.
Jonathan Byrd has been in sound form of late, with a 12th at the Players following a 9th on Bentgrass at the Wells Fargo Championship. Byrd is a decent all round driver, and was a useful 28th for greens hit last time out. Rarely a brilliant putter, Byrd is an OK option this week, but hardly irresistible. 7 appearances here, with a distant 8th and 5 MCs confirms this perspective. No bet.
John Rollins is a player I often fear omitting. However, in 9 appearances here, Rollins has done precious little to inspire, with a 24th and 48th position his only top 50s. Rollins is typically in solid form, driving nicely, hitting more than his share of greens and putting pretty well. I am surprised his record is so abject here actually, although 3 top 10s in Rollins' last 24 Bentgrass PGA events in my records hardly inspires either. 66/1 is not a good enough price to consider a turn around in fortunes this week.
That Ryan Moore often is priced around 66s is a sign of two things. Firstly, even when off form, layers are cautious in dismissing this potentially fantastic iron player. Second, he is simply too inconsistent to command a shorter price. So, tough to call. Moore can certainly putt on Bentgrass and has several place finishes in the last 3 seasons to confirm that fact. Moore produced his worst putting display of the season last time out at the Players, but that was Bermuda. Moore has been in the top 20 for total putts in 2 of his last four events - both on bentgrass and one in Texas (Shell Houston Open). So, there are definite reasons to like aspects of his game here. I have to leave him alone here however, as he has failed to make any impact in 5 attempts here.
Brendon De Jonge is starting to appear on leaderboards again after a fairly lean spell. However, at 125/1, it is clear that layers do not rate his chances here this week. De Jonge has a pair of 50 something finishes here, which is nothing special. De Jonge can putt on Bentgrass, leading the field for total putts at the Shell Houston in 2011 with two further putting top 5s on Bentgrass last year. However, his form is just not quite where I would want it to be to back him as a live outsider this week.
Boo Weekley was part of our selections last week and after a good performance in the first two rounds, he really fell away over the weekend. I have to dismiss Boo this week, as he putted horribly last week. The tentative improvement in this aspect of his game in recent weeks was completely eroded in the difficult conditions of last week. The positive that remains for Boo is that he was again in the top 10 (6th) for greens hit. However, I need to see much better evidence that he is putting well to back him here.
JJ Henry eventually finished 3rd to fall behind our midpoint selections Jason Dufner and Dickie Pride last time out. However, his performance under extreme pressure was most impressive. Henry asserts that he hit a good shot on 17, only to find a difficult chip and eventual 3 putt would cost him any chance at the title. 16th in greens last week and 19th in putts, Henry holds initial appeal. However, one feels that Henry's special knowledge of TPC Four Seasons last week was a key factor in his improved game. Henry is a general 100/1 and even at that price, I can't back him here. In 10 appearances at Colonial, Henry has only one top 50 - a 22nd in 2009. Good luck to you if you back Henry here to follow up. Not for me.
In summary, it is difficult to get overly excited about any of our long shots this week. Blixt represents the best value option. I will probably keep a watching brief on him and may consider trying to get him onside if he drifts a little after only a moderate start.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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