Golf tips - Players Championship form guide

Players Championship - Course form guide

Players Championship outright selections - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-players-championship-outright.html
Player form guide - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-players-championship-player.html

Outright selection

1.5pts EW Sergio Garcia at 50/1 (take Bet365s 6 places)

As we are here on the eve of the widely regarded (on the PGA tour at least) 5th Major, I thought I would share my course form guide, in much the same way as I did for the Masters.  

My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:

• Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
• Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.  
• Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.  
• Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for a course.  Not relevant here, but useful for example last week in Texas, where the course was only the host course since 2006.

As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the Player's field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year.

So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results:

Surprised?  I was.  

Tim Clark tops my list due to a 9th in 2009 and 1st in 2010.  However, his recent return from a lengthy injury makes him unattractive this week, despite the recent course affinity.

Davis Love III has been 12th and 4th last two years, won in 2003 and has a further 8th.  General quotes of 200/1 are worth a second glance here.

Third in my ranks is a resurgent Sergio Garcia, who is a genuine world force again after a couple of lean years.  This is a worthy point, because Garcia followed a 2nd place in 2007 with a win in 2008.  50/1 with Bet365 and Hills will go I am sure.  Garcia was also 12th here last year and 4th back in 2002.  Take the 6 places with Bet365.  I will say more about Garcia in my outright preview, but I really want to take the price on him now.  Let's just say his ball striking is very encouraging for this week in addition to historical indicators.  

Alongside Garcia are Henrik Stenson and Ben Crane.  Stenson won in 2009, was 10th in 2008 and 3rd in 2006.  The MC of 2010 and 2011 is a symptom of his form rather than his ability to prosper around this course.  Stenson is returning gradually to form and is an interesting option here.  I expect the 100/1 quotes available now to come under some pressure in the coming days.  Ben Crane is a not so hidden hidden gem around this course.  6th in 2008, 5th in 2009, 4th in 2010 and..............45th in 2011 shows he plays exceptionally well around here when on song.  there were hints last week that Crane is nearing top gear again and I have a nagging thought which is this - Golf boy Mahan has won twice this year.  Bubba Watson is Masters Champ.  Last week, Rickie Fowler won his maiden PGA event, leaving Crane as the only golf boy not to win an event this year.  Added motivation?  Look to his course form before this, but do not discount it either.

In 6th and before we delve in to market leaders is David Toms.  Toms played well last week and was an agonising 2nd to KJ Choi here last year, missing short putts at the last hole and first play off hole to miss out.  

So, what of our market leaders?  Rory McIlroy has no course form to shout about despite enjoying favourite status here (rightly so).  McIlroy has not broken 72 or made a cut in two visits here.  I can probably leave 10/1 alone this week.........I think.  Anybody who read my preview last week and took the Betfair back option when he hit 20s (he actually drifted to 25s) would have had a great run for their money and a real trading opportunity.  Similar scope may exist this week.

Next is Luke Donald, who is 16s with Paddy Power, but generally 12s.  Donald ranks tied 7th in my course form ranks, due to a 2nd in 2005 and 4th last year.  Nothing worse than 37th in the last 5 visits; I like Luke a lot this week.  Do not be surprised to see him make my final team. If he doesn't, it will be a close run thing.

Lee Westwood is also 14s with all bar one layer - Ladbrokes, who quote 16/1.  Westwood openly declares his affection for this course and he has the right sort of game to win here.  Westwood was 4th last time here.  As always, the question is whether he can actually go on and head a star studded field come Sunday.  He is so good at contending, but but 5 other outings here at 22nd or worse, do leave sufficient doubt, even though he has only played twice here since 2006.  

Tiger Woods at 25/1.  Given he was 5/1 for the Masters two events ago after a 5 stroke victory, this is a huge price isn't it?  Actually, no.  I would not touch Woods this week.  Aside from the swing issues of the last two events and the MC last week, Woods does not go so well round here.  If we go back beyond the two WDs in 2011 and 2010, we see the ultra-dominant Woods not doing so here.  Woods won the event in 2001, but has gone 14th, 11th, 16th, 53rd, 22nd, 37th and 8th since.  Hardly inspiring.  I may be opposing him in a match bet this week I fancy.  

Lets round things off with Phil who is 22s with Bet365.  Phil is T7th in my ranks, with a win in 2007 and 3rd in 2004.  Phil is rejuvenated this year and the poor showing last week should be seen as surprising.  At 5/1+ for a place, Phil's price is almost irresistible right now. I expect him to be close to 16s by the off.

I will publish a form guide later today, with my tips as well in addition to Garcia above.

Dave