Golf Tips - Byron Nelson Outright Selections

Golf Tips - Byron Nelson Outright Selections


2pt win Adam Scott at 13/1 (Bet365, Stan James) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Brian Davis at 40/1 (Various, but take 6 places with Bodog) Loss 2pts
1.5pts EW Louis Oosthuizen at 25/1 (Various) Loss 3pts
1pt EW Boo Weekley at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places with Bodog) Loss 2pts

Total loss 9pts


Midpoint selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-byron-nelson-championship_19.html
Byron Nelson form guide - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/golf-tips-byron-nelson-championship.html


The course
TPC Four Seasons has been the host course to this event since 1986, although Cottonwood Valley Course was used for one of the rounds between 1994 and 2007.  The strength of the winds this week will play a major role in determining where the winning score is likely to fall.  In benign conditions, Rory Sabbatini won with a score of -19 in 2009.  However, last year the course ranked 5th hardest on tour, with Keegan Bradley edging Ryan Palmer in a play-off.  Winds caused only 5 players to be under par last year and is set to test players again this week.

Picking our winner this week is a difficult task.  The top 2 players last year averaged in the top 10 for driving distance.  However, nobody else did so.  None of the top 13 featured in the top 10 for driving accuracy and only 2 of the top 20 were in the top 10 greens hit/putts per round.  Our winner this week is likely to be a solid all rounder, who is able to keep bogeys off his card better than most and deal well with the inevitable setbacks when they do occur.  This heightens the importance of scrambling - our winner will miss plenty of greens this week, but must recover well when this does occur.  An ability to play wind is also of course an advantage and players with Texas links may also have a distinct edge here.  Finally, players who can play Bentgrass are desired.  Putting is not critical, but the requirement to consistently hole out and take chances when they do arise should not be under-estimated here.  Although the stats last year do not entirely back this up, I want players who are straight this week.  The fairways are tree-lined and if the wind does get up, I want to know that my players are better than most at finding fairways.

Phil Mickelson returns to this event for the first time since 2007 and heads the betting for the event, ahead of 2008 winner Adam Scott, Players Champion and World No.5 Matt Kuchar and defending champion Keegan Bradley.  Day, Dufner, Oosthuizen, Pettersson and Els are up next, highlighting that a decent field has assembled here.  All four previous champions (Bradley, Day, Sabbatini and Scott) tee up here too.

My selections
Of the leading contenders mentioned, I have to leave Mickelson this week.  Phil won here in the 90s and was 3rd in 2007.  It is never easy to leave Phil out of course, especially as his year has been so strong to date.  A 4th (Masters) and 3rd (Shell Houston - Texas) this season on bentgrass confirm what we already know.  However, Phil's irons were off last week, which does not fit the bill here.  I can not trust him at 11/1, especially with no wins in the event for 16 years.  I am also going to leave Kuchar.  After a huge win, it will take a lot for Kuchar to fire again this week and, odd though it may be to say this after win, I still do not think he wins enough to be trusted here at quotes of 14/1.  His 6th here last year serves as warning that he can get the job done, but I do not see any value in the bet this week.

Adam Scott loves Texas, with 3 of his 4 PGA wins in the state, including here in 2008.  Also, he tops the recent form guide coming in to the event as shown in my earlier blog post (link above).  Scott played well last week and outside of the Masters, has been 9th, 1st and 11th in greens hit this season.  Indeed, Scott tops my GIR ranking this week coming in to the event.  Scott actually missed the cut last time out here in 2009, but won and was 3rd in the 2 attempts prior to that.  Scott is the player I consider most likely to win this week and I am happy to have him win only.

As mentioned in my form guide, Brian Davis is in great form right now, with a string of solid results.  My form guide thoughts really underline why he deserves to be added here - With form of 4, 4, 13, 39, 9, 25, the last of which was in a much better field at the Players, Davis is worthy of serious respect on tour right now.  Within that run of good form are a 4th and 13th in Texas, so some state positives as well.  Add also that his last two events on Bentgrass - 4th and 9th from the run above - are strong and Davis ticks a lot of boxes, even at 40/1.  A final positive is that if we ignore the MC in both 2011 and 2010, Davis finished 2nd here in 2010.  He shot -17 that week, but a more gritty effort is likely to be required to prevail this time around.  I could not deter anybody from backing Davis this week.


Louis Oosthuizen is among the best players in World golf right now.  That we can still get 25/1 is excellent value in my eyes.  A missed cut at Sawgrass does not concern me.  Clearly, the track is still something of an enigma for him (and Rory) and I can happily overlook this blip when the 3 results prior to that read 3, 2, 1.  I always consider Oosthuizen when bentgrass greens are in use, because Oosthuizen thrives on the surface.  A winner on bentgrass in South Africa at the start of the year, Louis has since finished 3rd (In Texas and leading by 3 going in to the final round) and 2nd (Masters, play-off defeat).  Put simply, he loves the surface.  But that is not all.  Oosthuizen's scrambling stats are impeccable this year.  An accurate driver when playing well, who makes fewer bogeys than most and can really dial in with his iron play, I see Oosthuizen as having a big say this week. My final positive is that Bradley and Day won in the last 2 years - both proven quality players, both first-timers at the event.  If we are looking for the classiest first-timer in 2012, Oosthuizen is the man and by some distance.

My final pick is a difficult call.  I have Pettersson, Dufner, Weekly, Blake Adams and Leishman in mind.  I am going to settle on Weekley, who again was summarised in my form guide -I am surprised to see Boo Weekley at 100/1 this week.  He was going off at 40/1 as recently as 3 weeks ago, since which time he withdrew after 25 holes of the Texas Open and rejected his sponsors invite for the Zurich.  The withdrawal was illness rather than injury and so, in this quality of field, I believe 100/1 to be overly dismissive.  Boo was 14th and 6th in his last two events.....both in Texas, with the 13th place on Bentgrass.  We were onside with Boo when he finished 6th - after 13 holes of round 4, he still had an outside shot at the title but then proceeded to drop 4 shots in 5 holes and miss a place by a shot.  Clearly, his form is good and as long as he has practiced enough, he has claims here.  Boo has been in the top 40 for greens hit in his last 6 events (no surprise) and has been putting OK more often than not recently too (a definite surprise).  Notably, Weekley was 31st in putts per round on his only outing on Bentgrass and that is one of his best efforts in the last 2 years on tour.  I really do expect a decent showing from Boo this week.  


This is a tough week in many respects and players may find they have the unlucky side of the draw from a weather perspective, which limits their chances.  I am happy to settle with the 4 players mentioned and "only" 9 points staked


Regards


Dave (OneBet)