US Masters Specials betting

Other US Masters blog posts
US Masters outright tips http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/us-masters-tips-outright-betting.html
US Masters past form - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/us-masters-betting-course-form-guide.html
US Masters recent form guide - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/us-masters-tips-recent-form-guide.html

Specials betting
As always with Golf's four majors, there is great appeal in looking at specials markets.  Much fancied players on the regular tour can be easily priced up at triple figure odds for a major and this creates huge value in specials markets.

In addition, the special requirements around Augusta mean that we can confidently look to oppose some of the World's very best players, as their game is not set up to readily playing well here.

Specials tips below, with the briefest of reasoning for each.


Top player by nationality

• 0.75pt EW Kyung Tae Kim top at Asian 8/1 (Paddy Power, 2 places, 1/3 odds terms) Loss 1.5pts

Hugely talented golfer, who showed with a 6th placed WGC finish last year that he can compete with the best.  Made the cut last year and finished very well with a final round 68, Kim could upset the more fancied players Choi and Yang this week.  

• 1pt John Senden to be top Australian at 9/1 (Various.  10/1 is available with Titan bet) Loss 1pt

Senden is in fine form and is one of our outright tips at 200/1 for the event.  There are enough questions surrounding Scott (lightly raced in 2012), Day (no form entering the event, but course should suit better this week), Ogilvy (likely to be a threat, but not yet back to his best) and Baddeley (surprisingly poor last time out and no great form round this track) to believe that Senden has a chance if he can start well.  

• 1pt EW Bill Haas to be top American at 40/1 (Various, 4 places 1/4 odds terms) Loss 2pts

See outright preview for Bill Haas logic. Crazy price.  Even if Woods and Mickelson play well, 2 spots still available for the place terms and Haas can threaten this week.  

• 0.75pts Miguel Angel Jimenez to be the top Spanish player at 11/2 (Coral, 5/1 various) Loss 0.75pts

Sergio has not played well here of late and his form has tailed off a little in recent weeks.  Quiros can MC as easily as he can finish top 20.  Jimenez 5 top 15s in 11 years.

To miss the cut

• 2pts Martin Kaymer to miss the cut at 13/8 (Bet 365, 6/4 William Hill) Loss 2pts

3 years, 3 missed cuts and Kaymer is not the force he was in World golf versus previous years.  1 round of 76 or higher in each of the last 3 years.  Price makes this a strong play.

• 2pts Louis Oosthuizen to miss the cut at 13/8 (Bet365) Loss 2pts

3 attempts, 3 missed cuts and 6 rounds without yet making par or better.  Serious questions over Oosthuizen's ability to shape the ball as required around here.  Good form for much of last week, but serious problems with his ball striking cost him the title on Sunday.

Top 20 betting

• 3pts Bo Van Pelt to finish in the top 20 at 2/1 (Coral, 15/8 Skybet) W Profit 6pts

Another outright tip, Van Pelt is 5th in recent form, 8th last year and a hot prospect in all key categories.

• 3pts Steve Stricker to finish in the top 20 at 5/4 (Various) Loss 3pts

A low-key warm up last week, which is no concern.  Stricker might just challenge for the win here if on his game.  11, 30, 6 last 3 years.  Odds against is price enough to back strongly.

Tournament winning score

• 3pts winning score over 276strokes at 7/4 (Betfred bet is 277 or worse, which is the same thing, 13/8 Bet365) W Profit 5.25pts

A losing bet in the last 3 years, but weather issues for potentially 3 of the 4 rounds this year could see this bet land with ease.  276 is -12.  1 difficult weather day this year will make that target extremely tough to beat.  274 total last year came in generally fine conditions.  

72 hole mathcbets

• 2pts Matt Kuchar to beat Martin Kaymer over 72 holes at 4/5 (Various) W Profit 1.8pts

Kuchar very consistent with 3 straight top 10s coming in to the event.  27/24 last two years versus MC/MC/MC for Kaymer.

• 3pts Geoff Ogilvy to beat Louis Oosthuizen over 72 holes at 10/11 (Various) Loss 3pts

16th last time out hints at form.  6 top 40s in the last 6 years here, including 4th last year shows Ogilvy's affinity for the course.  MC/MC/MC for Oosthuizen

• 2pts rory McIlroy to beat Tiger Woods over 72 holes at 11/10 (Various) Loss 2pts

A really tight match bet, with McIlroy the proven better player over the last 6 months and Tiger still a leap of faith.  Odds against on the World's best player makes this a must bet.

• 2pts Edoardo Molinari to beat Francesco Molinari at 5/6 (Paddy Power) Loss 2pts

Can putt versus can't putt.  Simplistic, but has some merits on these lightning fast greens.  Francesco in very average form.  Edoardo hinting at finding his game after a lean year.  11th last year - a repeat of anything like that form this year highly likely to be enough this week.


Overall loss : 12.2pts

Ultimately, a very disappointing result.  Hanson and Mickelson both failed to get it done to leave a scant 2.2pts profit on the outright bets.

In the specials bets, we got Oosthuizen badly wrong.  I think the softer conditions allowed Oosthuizen to find his game and confidence here.  In addition, the fact that the cut mark allowed 66 players to make the weekend meant that only players completely failing to get to grips with the course would miss out.  This meant that a poor 2nd round from Kaymer was not enough to see him miss out.

McIlroy imploded to cost both the match bet with Tiger and a hefty 5 point mid way punt.  Easy to say in hindsight, but that was over bold.

In the best national player market, Kim really fell away on the back 9 on day 2, to miss the cut by 1.  He "only" had to beat +4 to win that market and really missed a big chance for us.  Senden and Haas failed to get involved and Jimenez played strongly for 2 days before fading and losing out to Sergio, the only other to make the weekend.

A very frustrating weekend as Phil, Peter Hanson and to a lesser extent, Justin Rose all threatened to make significant returns, but eventually delivered little.


Regards


Dave (OneBet)