Dubai Desert Classic Tips

Post tournament synopsis


Last week's event in Dubai was a frustrating one.  Of the selections, Bjorn and Colsaerts both failed by a single shot to make the money places - both failed to birdie the par 5 18th to steal some money back for the OneBet team.


Both players will look back and think they could have won the event.  Bjorn in particular had the event in his grasp.  After 14 holes of the third round, Bjorn shared the lead with Westwood.  However, 3 bogeys in his last 4 holes and a slow start to round 4 put paid to any hopes of winning the event.  I have backed Bjorn without success recently.  I probably need to see quotes of 30/1 before I consider him again at present as his consistency is not quite there over 4 days.  


Colsaerts spent a day standing still and that really cost him overall. He played quite well in round 4, but frustratingly, bogeys at semi-regular intervals consistently derailed his charge and he fell just short.


Westwood should have won the event. I advised he was the best bet of the leading trio, but the inability to take a tournament that was just waiting for him to do so confirms that it was wise to lay off the 11/1 quotes.  


Cabrera-Bello won well in the end and capitalised on the door that Westwood left wide open.  After he headed the leaderboard on Thursday, I thought "him again".  One to watch for this sort of market as he is a streaky player that can go on hot runs during a round.  



1.5pts EW Thomas Bjorn at 22/1 (Various)
1pt EW Nicolas Colsaerts at 35/1 (Vairious)
1pt EW Paul Lawrie at 35/1 (Bet365, Sporting Bet)
0.5pt EW joost Luiten at 80/1 (Bodog, 6places.  66s general).
0.2pts EW Raphael Jacquelin at 150/1 (Bet365, Skybet)
0.3pts EW Michael Hoey at 110/1 (Bet365, 100s general)


2 points Michael Hoey to beat Mark Foster and George Coetzee in an 18 hole match bet at 23/10 (Stan James, 9/4 skyBet, Betvictor)

Tournament guide
So, time to back up our 50/1 winner from last week with another this.  That is the plan at least.  


I make no apologies for going back this week to familiar faces in the form of Bjorn, Lawrie, Jacquelin and Luiten.  We remain on the desert swing the headline brief is similar in a number of respects.  I want ball strikers this week who can finesse their way around the course.  I also need players who can handle any wind that is likely to come.  Putting is less prevalent here than recent events, but the greens are fast enough to cause problems. Finally, I need players who are already in form and confident in their game when tackling what is a difficult track if the wind blows.  


As befits the most prestigious of the desert swing events, a fine European field has assembled again.  The event has been won largely by big name players in good form, although the likes of O'Meara, Coceres and Derksen certainly buck that trend.


If the wind does blow we may need a little luck in the timing of our players out, although by picking 7 we have ensured that most of the day is covered!  




The players I didn't pick
The claims of Mcilroy, Kaymer and Westwood are obvious here.  Westwood has never won the event, but just failed to beat Jimenez a couple of years ago, losing out only in a play-off.  So, no question he can get the job done.  In terms of value, Westwood is actually the closest to getting a pick this week, but he leaves enough doubt with recent form to suggest he might fall short again; I would want to go win only on any of the top 3 if I were to back them.  Mcllroy, winner in 2009, is rightly a clear favourite.  His form is stunning.  However, I am not willing to take a 4/1 price on him getting it done here.  For such a talent, his win to tournament ratio is pretty dire.  Until he starts to win consistently, 4/1 is a long way from a backable price, especially in this field.  If you consider that he was 7/1 a couple of tournaments back and failed to win there, then he must be left alone.  Kaymer's win ratio is well documented, but despite a decent finish last time out, he was never going to win that event.  He does not look like winning right now and this is not the tournament to back a turn around in his game.  Kaymer is a horses for courses kind of player (usually), so I happily omit him here.


Robert Rock is a nervous omission, given the win last time out on a course that I believe he was not really well suited to win at.  Quiros also has great credentials in the desert as does Dyson, but I believe the bookmakers have defended their position well enough at the prices offered.  Peter Hanson has some history in this event also, but I do not like quotations anywhere near 20/1 for him.  



This week's tips
Had Thomas Bjorn not shot +7 in round1 last week, we would be looking at a 3rd and another place finish in the last two events and a 16/1 quotation.  So, whilst his bad round was terrible for my assured tip last week, it is good news this.  Bjorn won this event in 2001, so can clearly play the course - he fended off Tiger that time.  But, we can place that indicator as secondary to his recent form (79 aside) on the desert swing, allied to his triple winning 2011 and proclamations of being back in love with golf.  My concern is that he has not started well enough in either of the last two events to have a shot at the win.  A good start this week and we should be close on Sunday.


Nicolas Colsaerts is a fine young player, who continues to perform well on tour and threaten to add to his win in 2011.  Critically here, we have a man who is highly adept at hitting greens.  Had I not spent so much on the outrights, I would have considered a 1st round leader bet on Colsaerts, who led the field in his season opening event and did so also on tour last year.  But, I am happy to take his outright price here.  Colsaerts is 15 points higher in the betting than Quiros, but in undoubtedly better form.  He is worth a punt at 40s this week.


I said everything about Paul Lawrie in my pre and post tounrament analysis of Lawire http://onebettips.blogspot.com/2012/02/commercial-bank-qatar-masters-tips.html and so will say little more than the fact that he is the form man in Europe and states himself this is the best he has ever played.  I can not omit him at the moment and while odds are so much bigger than the top 6 in the betting.  


I backed Luiten at 100s a few weeks back, saying that his ball striking was exactly as required for the event.  However, my stated concerns over his putting on a tougher track were sadly born out by a good but non-challenging 4 days.  This week, I believe the lessened putting challenge can potentially bring Luiten in to play.  If he can gain some confidence on day 1, expect him to go well.


Michael Hoey won twice last year, but remains under-rated by bookmakers.  the two factors which appeal this week are his T15 last year, which shows he can handle the track.  Also, Hoey finished 12th last year in Qatar - an event where I would not really expect him to feature.  45th last year in Qatar before a T15 here, my hope is that he is arriving in better form and can get in the mix.  when Hoey is in the mix, he is actually one of the better finishers on tour.  I have backed Hoey in the 3-ball as Mark Foster has described the last two days of practice as amongst the worst of his career.  So, if we assume that carries in to the event, it is a matchbet with Coetzee.  Hoey was 9th in Abu Dhabi recently and led the field after day 1 of the Alfred Dunhill.  Although this bet is by no means a given, at 23/10 it is great value.


Finally, a tip which will turn @onebetuk cold.  I tipped Jacquelin at 125s last week and he missed the cut.  Well, he is back at 150s this and I want to have him onside again.  the price is farcical for a player of his ability in my view.  See the above blog for wider thoughts on Jacquelin, but his T20th here shows he can play the course.  A fine ball striker and scrambler, he has game to challenge here.