Commercial Bank Qatar Masters Tips

Qatar Masters summary
A handsome overall profit of 57 points, thanks to an exceptional display of front running from Paul Lawrie on the final day.  Bizarrely, I actually wish all 4 rounds were possible.  I have little doubt that Lawrie's 4 shot cushion would have been enough and would have fair hopes of Bjorn and/or Finch getting in to the mix for the places with another day.

For the first time in his career, Lawrie has 5 straight top 10 finishes.  He really is in great form.  In the Dubai World Championship at the end of last season, Lawrie went to toe to toe with the best and almost beat them all.  I had no concerns about a last day collapse.  Lawrie was an obvious consideration, but as soon as it was clear that the conditions were going to be blustery, Lawrie's strong credentials got stronger.

Thomas Bjorn was a case of what might have been.  +7 after day one and completely out of it.  Or so you would think. He roared back and ended -4 after 3 days, just 3 from the places.  Another day would have certainly been interesting.  No reason to be down about the pick at all.  Bjorn just had one of those days on Thursday and is certainly one to be considered for next year's renewal.

Finch has frustrated me massively recently.  3 times in recent weeks he has failed to turn potential in to a result.  We had him at 250/1 at the Joburg and after 59 of the 72 holes, we were dreaming of a massive pay day.  He finished 24th.  On Thursday, we had him 1st round leader and he was.....for 16 holes.  Hole 18 is the course 2nd easiest hole.  So, a glorious chance to take the 1st round lead outright.  The bogey-bogey finish was hard to take.  Finch played very nicely in rounds 1 and 3, but fell asleep for 9 holes in round 2 and his chance was gone.  A further round with little pressure would have been worth watching though.

Jacquelin started poorly, but showed in round 2 that he had game to do well in those conditions.


2pts EW Thomas Bjorn at 20/1 (Various) Loss 4 points
1pt EW Paul Lawrie at 50/1 (BetVictor, Coral) W Profit 62.5 points
0.25pts EW Raphael Jacquelin at 125/1 (Bodog, 6 places, various 5 places) Loss 0.5pts
0.5pts EW Richard Finch at 150/1 (BetVictor, 125/1 Various) Loss 1pt

0.3pts EW Richard Finch 1st round leader at 100/1 (Various) Profit 0.8pts (shared place)
0.3pts EW Tom Lewis 1st round leader at 80/1 (Various) Loss 0.6 points

Total profit: 57.2pts

My headline tip this week is to again go back to Thomas Bjorn, who won the title so impressively last year.  Bjorn recovered from a poor 1st round to move through the field and eventually win by 4 shots.  There are 3 summary factors behind my picking Bjorn again this week.  First, Bjorn is in good form after a fine 3rd place last week in Abu Dhabi - a track which is less well suited to his game than Qatar this week.  Last year, Bjorn won despite an indifferent performance in Abu dhabi, so enters this week in better shape.  Also, don't be afraid to tip Bjorn to fire again - back to back wins last year dispel that concern.  Also, Bjorn won last year despite some erratic driving.  However, last week he led the field in this statistic.  With the wind blowing this week, a dialled in driver may be even more a factor and so this really encourages me.  The final point is this simple fact: Bjorn was a full 8 shots clear of 6th place last year, despite an opening 74.  Put simply, a display anywhere near Bjorn's best this week should see him strongly featuring at the head of the leaderboard.  There is quality above him in the betting, but all have more question marks than Bjorn for me, who undoubtedly represents value for me this week.

The next 3 picks represent value based upon form and an ability to play the conditions well.  Much has been made the wind being a major factor at Qatar this week.  With this in mind, I refer first to a recent pick, who, at 250-1, seriously threatened to give us a headline return in South Africa before a late collapse saw him slip down the field.  Richard Finch finished 24th at the Joburg Open, having led late in round 3 and been only a shot from the lead after 5 holes of the final round.  Also, at Abu Dhabi, he scored a creditable 30th place finish and again featured much higher up the leaderboard before slipping away over the weekend.  So, obvious concerns reside regarding his staying power, but he is striking the ball extremely well and there are some strong indicators that this may be a good week for him.  Finch's final round 69 at the Nordea Masters last year saw him grab 2nd in horrendous conditions.  This was arguably one of the best rounds on tour last year as a number of headline names failed to break 80. So, his ability to play wind and hang in there when conditions demand control rather than aggression is clear.  Add to this a 9th here last year and you have a player clearly able to challenge this week.  The 1st round leader play has genuine merits given the adverse weather forecasts as well and is worth a play.

Paul Lawrie has been in fine form since the end of last year, a year which marked a welcome return to the winners circle for a player who has always been a fine ball-striker and good player in windy conditions.  His open victory in 1999 is an obvious example of this.  Lawrie's last 3 events have featured high class fields at the Dubai World Championship, Volvo Golf Champions and Abu Championship event.  However, this has not stopped Lawrie from finishining 2nd, 10th and 8th in those events, which is a clear sign of a player at one with his game right now.  Add in that Lawrie ticks the box more than most when the wind blows and we have a real contender this week.

Raphael Jacquelin is another with some positive recent form.  A good iron player and fine scrambler when needed, Jacquelin has the game to keep the bogeys off the card this week, a trait that will surely be necessary in finding our winner.  Also, Jacquelin has demonstrated that he can play testing conditions in the past.  His affinity for links golf is an indicator of this and fine Scottish Open results combined with a top 15 at the Open last year suggest Jacquelin can course manage when needed.  125/1 is a big price for a player in good shape and fine credentials for this golf course.

Finally, a small wager on Tom Lewis in the 1st round leader market.  Tom Lewis was a noted player of links golf as an amateur, a fact confirmed by a headline grabbing performance at last year's Open.  Lewis confirmed his affinity by challenging strongly at the Alfred Dunhill later that year.  So, I have no qualms that Lewis can cope with what threatens to be a testing day 1 due to the weather.  However, it is also worth noting that Lewis tied for 1st round leader at the British Open, was 6th after round 1 of the Dunhill and at the Volvo Golf champions event, only had Branden Grace ahead of him after day 1.  In 9 events from the British open to date then, Lewis has challenged strongly 3 times for 1st round leader, cashing in two of those events.   If I factor in that the wind could help him even more if his irons fire, then Lewis represents great value at 80/1 in this market.