1.5pts Ricky Barnes to beat Padraig Harrington at 11/8 (Totesport, Betfred)
Padraig Harrington played Pebble Beach extremely well on Friday, shooting a -6 score. However, I am willing to oppose him here in a match bet with Ricky Barnes, who is much higher than the sort of 11/10 range I expected. Barnes himself played nicely at Pebble yesterday, with a solid -2 score.
There are a few reasons to be keen on this bet. First, Barnes is having a solid week, with only 3 dropped shots through 54 holes. Harrington, after a Bogey, Par, Bogey, Double bogey, Par finish yesterday, has now dropped 8 shots this week. This has been a long week, with rounds taking in the region of 6 hours to complete. I want to side with players who keep bogeys off the card for Sunday and there is a now familiar feeling that Harrington is falling off his game slightly.
Barnes has not contended much in recent times. However, when considering his ability to compete on day 4 in exalted company, we do not have to go far back to remember a string of majors in which Barnes contended strongly at the head of the field. In more recent times, Barnes finished 4th at last year's Honda Classic, shooting the 5th best score of the day to finish in the paying places for punters. Also, at the Heritgae, Barnes entered the final round in 5th and improved to 4th with a solid 69.
Harrington is a complete contrast to that. In his major winning prime of a few years ago, Harrington was a tenacious day 4 competitor to be feared down the home stretch. However, recent events have suggested a fragility when in contention. At the recent Volvo Golf Champions event in South Africa, Harrington fell away from contention with a poor last day. At the Iskandar Johor Open (which he was defending), Harrington was just off the lead before a similar failure. Similarly, at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, Harrington produced an average day 4 to fall away from contention, while the likes of winner Hoey and McIlroy kicked on and really went for the title. Harrington echoes Goosen in this respect for me. Former greats in the game who still have the attributes to shoot low scores and contend, but who somehow lack that mental edge required to drive a big result. Whether I am proved wrong today or in the near future is of course possible, but there are enough signs to question Harrington here.
I expected Barnes to be 11/10 and personally regard him a marginal favourite. This is a must bet for me
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