18 hole betting is a tricky business as a hot spell for one golfer can render your pick out of contention and conversely, as little a single poor shot by your pick can cost the whole bet.
I have looked in some detail at all of the 3-balls and I believe the bet above offers some stand-out value. We called Barnes to beat Harrington last week - let's hope we fare as well today.
Logic for Luke
For Luke to be only marginal odds against in a match bet with 2 of the very best players in the game at first looks tight. However, a little deeper digging suggests actually he should be a little tighter. My first point with Donald is that we have to consider and let pass his horror round here in round 2 last year, which took him not only out of contention, but also beyond the cut line. That aside, Donald has an impeccable record here and has been in the top 13 in 5 of the last 7 renewals of the event. So, proof positive that he can perform well, which allows me to regard 2011 as a blip.
Watney started well yesterday but faded to finish +2 by the end of his round. Scott is also +2. Luke Donald sits an encouraging -1 and in T14th. However, this is almost indcidental when considering today.
My first encouragement comes from the fact that Scott played the front 9 (his back 9) in +1 yesterday and Watney played the same stretch in a miserable +5. Whilst the course may not play so tough today, I always like the fact that players who struggle coming in on a Thursday have to face the same stretch going out on Friday.
In addition to this, I have looked at how the respective players perform when in a similar position in recent events and then I see the real value. Put simply, Adam Scott (British Open aside) does not have any history in the last 18 months of following a below par first round with a strong 2nd round. Scott has 11 top 10s in the last 18 months. His worst position in any of those events after day 1 is 33rd and that was the Australian PGA, which is a different kind of challenge to this week. He sits 55th after round 1 here, 7 shots off Phil Mickelson. In contrast, the times when he does not compete on day 2 if distant are numerous. Watney is not dis-similar in this respect although the times he has started this poorly are relatively few. In the last 18 months, his round rank after round 2 in which he has been outside the top 40 after day 1 read as follows : 58, 15, 132, 64, 45. So, he usually advertises that his game is off in round 1 and confirms it in round 2. Both players of course are fine players and can play well, so to believe in this bet, I need to have confidence that Luke can get it done. I do.
When in the top 20 after round 1 over the same period, Luke's round ranks are as follows : 10, 10, 2, 8, 12, 2, 134, 26, 1, 3, 44, 10, 18, 10.
The 134th was the implosion here last year. The 44th was the high prestige Deutsche Bank event. That aside, Luke is highly likely to put in a top 20 display, which is highly likely to be good enough. A bet for me.
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