Proofing to Secret Betting Club since January 12th 2012
Thursday 1 November 2012
OneBet Racing Selections 1st November 2012
Stratford
Whisky Yankee @ 9/4 (NB)
Peaks Of Fire @ 7/2
True Blue @ 11/4
Polly Peachum @ 11/10 WON
I'm The Decider @ 11/4
Twirling Magnet @ 14/1 (ew)
Boomtown @ 11/8 (NAP) WN
Hereford
Vasco Du Ronceray @1/4 (NAP) WON
Stevie Thunder @13/8
Pericoloso @9/4
Seedless @ EVE (NB)
On the Bridge @7/4 WON
Unwanted Gift @5/2
Cevaro @9/4 WON
Sunday 16 September 2012
Golf tips - Tour Championship: East Lake tips and trends
For tournament preview and outright tips click here
As I posted my tips a whole 6 days before the off, I am left twiddling my thumbs. Given this, I thought I would look at some trends ahead of the FedEx cup finalé.
My focus is purely upon East Lake since 2001 - as such, we omit the 2001 and 2003 editions of the Tour Championship, which were hosted at Houston GC. Let's see if we can find some pointers which are useful in unpicking the event this week.
Winning scores:
2002: -12
2004: -11
2005: -17
2006: -11
2007: -23 (First FedEx Cup play-offs year, Tiger the winner)
2008: -7 (First year using Bermudagrass greens)
2009: -9
2010: -8
2011: -8
Rank on tour (1 toughest, 47 easiest) : 27th. 18th ranked in 2010 and 15th in 2009.
In 2011, of 35 events that I ranked, the tour Championship was 25th toughest for driving distance (meaning it is relatively easy for players to hit driver), 3rd in driving accuracy (meaning finding the fairways is tough), 21st in GIR (meaning that hitting greens is easier than average, despite tough to hit fairways) and 19th in total putts (meaning the challenge here is not so easy, but not fiendish either)
Best round : 60 (Zach Johnson in Rd3 2007 - finished 2nd overall, 8 shots behind Tiger).
Best opening round by an eventual winner: 62, Bart Bryant 2005. Tiger shot 64 in 2007 in the first FedEx year and Furyk shot a 67 in 2010, the best score since the move to Bermudagrass in 2008.
Poorest opening round by an eventual winner: 73, Phil Mickelson 2009.
Average opening round by eventual winner: 67.7 (average 70 since the switch to bermudagrass in 2008)
Best final round by an eventual winner: 64, Goosen in 2004. In the FedEx cup era, Phil's closing 65 in 2009 is the best closing round.
Poorest final round by an eventual winner: 70, Furyk in 2010. That year, Donald also shot 70, to remain a shot back. Goosen shot 71, to finish 2 shots back. Watney shot 71/74 to sit +5 after the first two rounds and finished 63/67 to storm through to 4th.
Best opening 2 rounds: 127 (Tiger 2007 who opened 64/63 on his way to an 8 stroke victory). Since Bermudagrass in 2008, Scott (2011) and Furyk/Donald (2010) have opened best in 132 strokes.
Best final 2 rounds: 128 Zach Johnson 2007 (60, 68). Watney's 130 strokes over the weekend in 2010 is the best since Bermuda in 2008.
Midway position of eventual winner:
As you can see from the above chart, only once has the winner come from outside the 10 at halfway - Phil, 2009. In 8 of 11 years, a top 4 player has gone on to win the event. 4 times, the halfway leader has won the event.
Interestingly though, the profile is most erratic since the current FedEx/bermudagrass set up began in 2008. Since then, the eventual winner has been 4th, 12th, 1st and 5th at halfway. Furyk was the player who won from a halfway lead and he holds the record for the worst final round score, holding on because the close challengers never quite fired either. The clear inference is that the newly added pressure of FedEx cup honours plays heavily on those who are at the head of the field at halfway. 2007 was the first FedEx year (on Bentgrass then) and Tiger Woods won that year. I think he knew how to handle pressure back then - the fact he was 4 clear after round 2 did him no harm either.....
Midway position of players who go on to finish top 5:
The graph shown goes down to 5th, although it seems (understandably) that the place positions will not go below 4th. Watney in 2010 made the biggest leap from 25th to 4th. That aside, Phil's charge from 12th to 1st in 2009 is the only time since 2008 that a player outside the top 10 has even been in the top 5 come the end. 20 players have placed in the last 4 years; aside from Phil (12th to 1st 2009), Baddeley (10th to T3rd last year) and Curtis (7th to 5th in 2008) we see only players placing from within the top 5 at halfway.
By a distance, this is the strongest trend I have seen so far this season. Truly, it makes a lot of sense to look at players who are already in contention at halfway. I guess this is due a combination of a small field, which readily creates gaps in scoring (as opposed to bunched leaderboards as 70+ players make the weekend) and the fact that so many players have their eye on the potential of a huge prize if they run hot over the weekend. It is difficult to swing free and truly make up ground given these two factors.
So, if punting this weekend, there are some definite trends to follow. Unless you are following a player in the calibre of Phil Mickelson in 2009, a player starting sluggishly is very unlikely to win. Any player not right in the mix at halfway will have quite a task to place come the end. Hope that your player then can start well and then hold his nerve when the pressure is highest. This in part is why I was reluctant to pursue the top 5 in the FedEx standings this week, choosing only 40/1 shot Watney. The pressure will be immense this week. Remember also that of the top 5 Watney is the only player without the Ryder Cup on his mind.
Depending on how things stand, I may be back next week with further thoughts during the event.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
As I posted my tips a whole 6 days before the off, I am left twiddling my thumbs. Given this, I thought I would look at some trends ahead of the FedEx cup finalé.
My focus is purely upon East Lake since 2001 - as such, we omit the 2001 and 2003 editions of the Tour Championship, which were hosted at Houston GC. Let's see if we can find some pointers which are useful in unpicking the event this week.
Winning scores:
2002: -12
2004: -11
2005: -17
2006: -11
2007: -23 (First FedEx Cup play-offs year, Tiger the winner)
2008: -7 (First year using Bermudagrass greens)
2009: -9
2010: -8
2011: -8
Rank on tour (1 toughest, 47 easiest) : 27th. 18th ranked in 2010 and 15th in 2009.
In 2011, of 35 events that I ranked, the tour Championship was 25th toughest for driving distance (meaning it is relatively easy for players to hit driver), 3rd in driving accuracy (meaning finding the fairways is tough), 21st in GIR (meaning that hitting greens is easier than average, despite tough to hit fairways) and 19th in total putts (meaning the challenge here is not so easy, but not fiendish either)
Best round : 60 (Zach Johnson in Rd3 2007 - finished 2nd overall, 8 shots behind Tiger).
Best opening round by an eventual winner: 62, Bart Bryant 2005. Tiger shot 64 in 2007 in the first FedEx year and Furyk shot a 67 in 2010, the best score since the move to Bermudagrass in 2008.
Poorest opening round by an eventual winner: 73, Phil Mickelson 2009.
Average opening round by eventual winner: 67.7 (average 70 since the switch to bermudagrass in 2008)
Best final round by an eventual winner: 64, Goosen in 2004. In the FedEx cup era, Phil's closing 65 in 2009 is the best closing round.
Poorest final round by an eventual winner: 70, Furyk in 2010. That year, Donald also shot 70, to remain a shot back. Goosen shot 71, to finish 2 shots back. Watney shot 71/74 to sit +5 after the first two rounds and finished 63/67 to storm through to 4th.
Best opening 2 rounds: 127 (Tiger 2007 who opened 64/63 on his way to an 8 stroke victory). Since Bermudagrass in 2008, Scott (2011) and Furyk/Donald (2010) have opened best in 132 strokes.
Best final 2 rounds: 128 Zach Johnson 2007 (60, 68). Watney's 130 strokes over the weekend in 2010 is the best since Bermuda in 2008.
Midway position of eventual winner:
As you can see from the above chart, only once has the winner come from outside the 10 at halfway - Phil, 2009. In 8 of 11 years, a top 4 player has gone on to win the event. 4 times, the halfway leader has won the event.
Interestingly though, the profile is most erratic since the current FedEx/bermudagrass set up began in 2008. Since then, the eventual winner has been 4th, 12th, 1st and 5th at halfway. Furyk was the player who won from a halfway lead and he holds the record for the worst final round score, holding on because the close challengers never quite fired either. The clear inference is that the newly added pressure of FedEx cup honours plays heavily on those who are at the head of the field at halfway. 2007 was the first FedEx year (on Bentgrass then) and Tiger Woods won that year. I think he knew how to handle pressure back then - the fact he was 4 clear after round 2 did him no harm either.....
Midway position of players who go on to finish top 5:
The graph shown goes down to 5th, although it seems (understandably) that the place positions will not go below 4th. Watney in 2010 made the biggest leap from 25th to 4th. That aside, Phil's charge from 12th to 1st in 2009 is the only time since 2008 that a player outside the top 10 has even been in the top 5 come the end. 20 players have placed in the last 4 years; aside from Phil (12th to 1st 2009), Baddeley (10th to T3rd last year) and Curtis (7th to 5th in 2008) we see only players placing from within the top 5 at halfway.
By a distance, this is the strongest trend I have seen so far this season. Truly, it makes a lot of sense to look at players who are already in contention at halfway. I guess this is due a combination of a small field, which readily creates gaps in scoring (as opposed to bunched leaderboards as 70+ players make the weekend) and the fact that so many players have their eye on the potential of a huge prize if they run hot over the weekend. It is difficult to swing free and truly make up ground given these two factors.
So, if punting this weekend, there are some definite trends to follow. Unless you are following a player in the calibre of Phil Mickelson in 2009, a player starting sluggishly is very unlikely to win. Any player not right in the mix at halfway will have quite a task to place come the end. Hope that your player then can start well and then hold his nerve when the pressure is highest. This in part is why I was reluctant to pursue the top 5 in the FedEx standings this week, choosing only 40/1 shot Watney. The pressure will be immense this week. Remember also that of the top 5 Watney is the only player without the Ryder Cup on his mind.
Depending on how things stand, I may be back next week with further thoughts during the event.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Saturday 15 September 2012
Golf tips - The Tour Championship Tips and Tournament form guide
Outright selections
1.5pts EW Jim Furyk at 25/1 (Various)
0.75pts EW Nick Watney at 40/1 (Various)
0.75pt EW Sergio Garcia at 28/1 (Coral, BoyleSports)
0.75pts EW Ryan Moore at 55/1 (Stan James, 50/1 general)
For East Lake facts and figures click here
Hi all
The usual course/tournament form analysis below.
My tournament analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:
As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. However, 23 out of 30 possible entrants do tee up, further confirming the quality of the field that assembles this week. Of the first-timers that do tee up this week, the likes of Robert Garrigus and a certain Rory McIlroy can not be ignored.
As it is the tour finale, I am going to summarise the merits of all players in the field for my tournament analysis in order of my ranking.
Brief summaries for the rest of the field (apart from my other selections, who I need to justify)
Tournament rank 7: Zach Johnson, 33/1 general. 9th in FedEx cup.
Out of form recently, until a strong first three rounds last week. 2nd 2007 (Bentgrass) and 9th last year, plus Georgia affinity confirmed with his Masters win. A pass for me, although the place terms hold some appeal.
The rookies
Good luck!
1.5pts EW Jim Furyk at 25/1 (Various)
0.75pts EW Nick Watney at 40/1 (Various)
0.75pt EW Sergio Garcia at 28/1 (Coral, BoyleSports)
0.75pts EW Ryan Moore at 55/1 (Stan James, 50/1 general)
For East Lake facts and figures click here
Hi all
The usual course/tournament form analysis below.
My tournament analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:
- Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
- Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
- Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.
- Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use. Aside from 2001 and 2003, East Lake has been the host course.
- There are 3 factors which dilute the effectiveness of going back to 2001 for course form
- Champions GC in Houston was the host course in 2001/2003, not East Lake
- Putting surfaces changed from Bentgrass to Bermudagreass in 2008
- The Tour Championship only became the FedEx cup finale (its current guise) in 2007.
As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. However, 23 out of 30 possible entrants do tee up, further confirming the quality of the field that assembles this week. Of the first-timers that do tee up this week, the likes of Robert Garrigus and a certain Rory McIlroy can not be ignored.
So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:
Tournament rank 1: Phil Mickelson, 12/1 general. 4th in FedEx standings
After 4 top 4 finishes in 6 events, including victory at the AT&T at Pebble and a dreadful bounce from a thin piece of temporary stand arguably costing him the Masters, Phil rather drifted away from the business end of tournament golf..........until the FedEx cup play-offs. A charging 4th at the Deutsche and 2nd at the BMW having co-led through 54 holes tells us Phil is back. And, he is number 1 ranked here on tournament form too. Phil was 5th here back in 2002 and, since 2007 when this became the FedEx cup climax and Bermuda grass greens arrived a year later, he has been a factor. 3rd in 2008, 1st in 2009 and 10th in 2011 tells you Phil may be hard to keep away from the sharp end next week. There are two ways of looking at recent results here. Phil was also 22nd in 2010. In the last two years then, Phil has "only" been 22nd and 10th in a 30 man field. 12/1 is a little tough to be on side with; 2 hot tournaments after a bleak mid-season makes 3/1 the place marginal, even in such a limited field,
Tournament rank 2: Jim Furyk 25/1 general. 18th in FedEx cup standings.
Now, this guy is interesting. Furyk did not make 2011 here, which is probably the only thing that has him out of top spot in the tournament ranks. Furyk finished 8th and 2nd here before the FedEx cup event switch in 2007. 11th in 2007 was only OK, but since the switch to Bentgrass in 2008, Furyk has been 6th and 7th before landing the whole thing by winning in 2010. It will take a stunning sequence of events for him to land the overall FedEx cup prize this time, but winning the tournament itself is not such a leap of faith. Furyk warms up nicely at this time of year. 2010 - 15th at the BMW and then 1st at the Tour Championship. 2011: 6th at the Deutsche and 22nd at the BMW. This year : 13th at the Deutsche and 9th at the BMW. I have left Furyk alone since his narrow failure at the US Open, but he makes my team again here.
Tournament rank 3: Luike Donald 20/1 general (22/1 Coral). 15th in FedEx cup standings
At the head of World golf, Rory McIlroy has steamed off in to the distance in terms of ranking, with Woods and Westwood also coming to the fore as the PGA FedEx Cup race nears its finale. Luke Donald, however, has been somewhat left behind. Last year, Donald finished 18th, 3rd, 4th and 3rd in the 4 play-off events. The year before, 15th, 2nd, 37th and 2nd. 10th, 26th and 28th in the first 3 events this year suggests his game is a little off. It is actually with the putter that Donald is surprisingly most off his game. He was top 20 for total putts in all play-off events last year, but nothing better than 27th so far this year. His scrambling was poor at the BMW too. Donald has been 3rd and 2nd last 2 years here and on the surface, 20/1 in a 30 man field looks attractive. However, there are too many players hitting better form for him to be taken here.
Tournament rank 4: Hunter Mahan 66/1 Various (70/1 SportingBet). 23rd in fedEx cup.
Barring injury, it was almost unthinkable that Hunter Mahan would have missed the Ryder Cup and found himself 70/1 and 23rd in the FedEx cup race. However, the impressive winner of the Shell Houston and WGC Matchplay has totally fallen away in the remainder of the year. In 15 events post Shell Houston, 1 top 10 betrays the quality of this golfer. 2nd last year and 5th in 2007, Mahan can clearly play this track. We are getting over 15/1 a place,but I can leave him even at that price. Mahan is not hitting his irons close and is not making birdies. I can't back that he turns that around here.
Tournament rank 5: Adam Scott 18/1 general. 21st in FedEx cup.
Aside from 6th here last year, Scott won before the format change in 2006. He is in good form too, with 6th and 7th in his last two events. My big reservation with Scott is whether he will putt well enough to land the prize here. Last year's top 5 were 1st, 10th, 3rd, 2nd and 8th in total putts. Scott putted a lot better last week, but may be found just short come next Sunday..
Tournament rank 6: Tiger Woods 6/1 Coral, 11/2 in other places. 2nd in FedEx cup
9 top 10s in 17 events, including 3 wins, Tiger is back isn't he? Well, nearly. And, Rory has come along and swept him aside in recent weeks. Tiger has won 3 times this year on courses where he has had proven success in the past. He only ranks 6th this year due to not making it in 2010 and 2011. His 4 results before that here? 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd. At a general 11/2, the place position just about covers the win part of the bet and many will think that is compelling enough to back each way - surely Woods will not be too far away. Woods is scrambling and putting well, which will be useful here. He is also striking his mid to long range irons beautifully when in position. I just can't quite have him at such short odds right now. Woods is in the pressure zone of knowing a win lands him the whole FedEx cup. The top 5 will be under a lot of pressure and, while Woods has more winning knowledge than all others, he has been a little susceptible in the heat of battle this year when it comes to the big events. Out of form recently, until a strong first three rounds last week. 2nd 2007 (Bentgrass) and 9th last year, plus Georgia affinity confirmed with his Masters win. A pass for me, although the place terms hold some appeal.
Tournament rank T8: Nick Watney, 40/1 general. 3rd in FedEx cup.
A lot of pressure for the top 5 entering the event. However, Watney has some interesting hidden claims here. When Furyk won with -8 in 2010, Watney played the weekend in -10 to place 4th. He can win this event if he hooks up. Being blown away at the PGA aside, Watney has 9 straight top 45s, 7 of which are top 21 finishes. He won two events ago and can be forgiven a bit of a mental snooze in the next two events. Watney likes Bermuda and his caddy reads the surfaces particularly well. Watney is very tempting at the odds given. I am going to play him at reduced stakes - the pressure of knowing it is all in his hands leaves me a little hesitant.
Tournament rank T8: Ernie Els, 50/1 general. 22nd in FedEx Cup.
6 events and nothing better than 26th since the Open, Els is a huge leap of faith. 7th 2010, 9th 2009 and 6th 2008 shows Els may choose here to improve. Consider match bets where he may be 6/4 or worse depending on his opponent.
Tournament rank 10: Steve Stricker. 33/1 general. 13th in Fedex Cup.
6th is Stricker's best finish here. Recent form none too clever either, although he is finding greens better than most.. A pass for me - Watney's 40s and Furyk's 25s are eminently better value.
Tournament rank 11: Sergio Garcia, 28/1 available, 25s general. 12th in FedEx Cup..
No appearances here since 2008, however 2nd that year and 4th the year before tells you Sergio likes this place. Sergio won 3 starts ago on BermudaGrass in landing the Wyndham. He also led the field for total putts at WGC Cadillac on Bermuda earlier this year. Sergio is driving well and hitting greens better than most. If he gets his putting groove back on Bermuda at a course where he has placed last two times he has played it, he should be a major player in this event. At 12th in the FedEx cup, he may just land the whole thing with a win. Importantly for Sergio, he may not realise how close he is to landing the FedEx cup until he walks off the course, as the permutations tend to switch often in this event. Sergio's temperament in strokeplay golf's biggest events is questionable, so he is backable from off the pace in the FedEx cup. I am going to have a reduced play on Sergio this week, who will hopefully be ready to dial in ahead of the Ryder Cup.
Tournament rank T12: Bo Van Petl, 35/1 available, 33/1 general. 19th in FedEx cup.
Bo always appeals because he almost nearly always plays better than his odds suggest. However, he so often just misses even a place. 9th here last year and 10th last week. I just overlook him here, due to the preference for Sergio/Watney/Furyk in this sort of price band.
Tournament rank T12: John Senden, 80/1 SkyBet, 661 various. 29th in FedEx cup
10th in 2009 is about all we have for Senden. Poor result last week. General indifferent putting means I can't back him here, even at such odds.
Tournament rank 14: Dustin Johnson, 16/1 general. 7th in FedEx cup.
3 poor finishes last 3 years here, but 3rd, 4th and 6th in his last 3 events. Johnson will have his backers, but not for me at the price, given abject course form. As Johnson has won in each of the last two years during the FedEx cup, pressure will have been high at East Lake. It still is, as he sits 7th in the standings. A swerve for me.
Tournament rank T15: Bubba Watson, 33/1 general. 11th in FedEx Cup
3 attempts, nothing better than 17th. Led the field for scoring on Sunday in the BMW to rocket up to 12th overall. Won in Georgia at the Masters this year too of course. Improved irons and scrambling last time out. Could surprise a few, but not the best midfielder to pick from for me.
Tournament rank T15: Justin Rose, 33/1 general. 24th in FedEx cup.
3 appearances, with only 11th back in 2007 as a best result. Better form at the BMW than recent efforts. Irons really back on song last week as he led the field in GIR. However, putting stats remain pretty dire. No better than 46th for strokes gained putting in 3 play-off events. Avoid.
Tournament rank T17: Jason Dufner, 25/1 general. 10th in FedEx cup.
13th and 19th here in 2 previous events is OK. 2 good rounds out of 4 in the last 3 events. If he puts it together, he contends again as he has for much of the season. Dufner's first tour win (Zurich, this year) was on Bermuda and he was 2nd at halfway in the Masters, also at Georgia. I can't back him this week, but he could get it done.
Tournament rank T17: Matt Kuchar, 50/1 general. 16th in Fed Ex cup.
2 poor finishes here in the last 2 years and a very poor play-off sequence to date. 54th last week, despite 2nd in strokes gained putting and good scrambling stats. Irons need to improve a lot for him to feature.
Tournament rank 19th: Ryan Moore, 50/1 general. 28th in fed ex cup.
9th 2010 in his only appearance - interesting. Moore has finished 24th, 10th and 10th in the play-offs to date to make East Lake this week having been way off the pace coming in. Good iron play, 4th in proximity to the hole last week and performing well on and around the green, Moore is tempting at the price. Moore's 9th here in 2010 came off 3rd at the BMW, so can he can ride two hot rounds in the play-offs. Prior to the play-offs, Moore has had 4 top 10s, 3 of which came in a run of 4 events. I am going to take him to ride the momentum once more and feature, at what are tasty odds for one of the very best form players coming in.
Tournament rank 20th: Brandt Snedeker, 401 general, 5th in FedEx cup
Big pressure on Snedeker this week, knowing a win means 11.4m US dollars. 16th and 29th in two tries here is not overly encouraging either. Also, having placed 2nd and 6th in the first 2 play-off events, Snedeker produced 4 average to poor rounds at TPC Boston last time. give me Watney of the 40/1 shots instead please.
Tournament rank T21st: Carl Pettersson, 75/1 Stan James, 66/1 general. 17th in FedEx cup.
21st in 2008 and 16th in 2006 here are the only indicators we have, although Pettersson is a better player now of course. However, he arrives having done nothing since his fine PGA and subsequent Wyndham showing. I am going to leave Pettersson, although he is close to being backed purely on his price.
Tournament rank T21st : Keegan Bradley, 40/1 general. 14th in FedEx cup.
A useful 11th in his maiden appearance last year, Bradley has been 1st (Bridgestone), 3rd (PGA defence) and 13th (Deutsche) in the last 5 events. Useful form, although he had a poor BMW last time out. Will need to putt a lot better than he did last time out to feature.
Tournament rank T21st : Webb Simpson, 45/1 available 40/1 general. 25th in FedEx cup.
Webb entered last season's Tour Championship 1st in the FedEx cup standings. Not so this time. Webb's debut last year, perhaps understandably, was underwhelming. Webb swapped good irons for good putting last time out. If he can put it together, he may feature. However, it is a leap of faith that 40/1 does not justify.
Rory - Obvious favourite here. Can he really win 3 straight, hold his FedEx lead and land a huge prize? Maybe, but I can't take him at 5/1 given that and his debut here. He has arguably the best chance, but enough arguments for me to want 8s.
Lee Westwood - 16s and in good form. 8th in the race, arguably his biggest title - the FedEx cup - may well be landed if he were to win here. I tend to look for Westwood when it is Bentgrass greens in the States. Also, last time out, he hardly troubled McIlroy in meandering to T2nd with the equally languid Mickelson. If he has a poor 1st round, I might just back him EW to come from off the pace and get in the mix, but I can't have him outright.
Louis Oosthuizen - 25s and with a great chance to win the whole thing if he prevails, winning is quite a proposition for the debutant. Like Westwood, I struggle to trust Oosthuizen on Bermuda and, given all other factors, he is overlooked.
Robert Garrigus - 66s is too tight. Garrigus did well to get here and is a streaky type, but I think too many of the World's top players will get between him and a place this week.
Rickie Fowler - 75/1 is available for Rickie in this 30 man field. Sounds good on a purely price basis. However, 8 events coming in with only 1 top 30 (24th Barclays) makes him unbackable on debut.
John Huh - In three of the last 4 events, Hiuh has had a very strong Friday and Sunday, spoiled by a fairly abject Thursday and Saturday. Huh is dismissed at 100/1. May be worth a second look if his 1st round is useful.
Scott Piercy - 100/1 and last to scrape in at 30th in the FedEx cup race, Piercy has lost his game during the play-offs. the only bright spot was a good last round at the BMW last time out. I can't back him this week.
Dave (OneBet)
Wednesday 5 September 2012
Golf Tips - KLM Open outright selections
1pt EW Lee Slattery at 100/1 (Various)
0.5pt EW Tommy Fleetwood at 175/1 (Bet365)
1.5pt EW Anders Hansen at 33/1 (Various)
1pt EW Romain Wattel at 35/1 (Stan James 888 Sport)
0.5pt EW Tommy Fleetwood at 175/1 (Bet365)
1.5pt EW Anders Hansen at 33/1 (Various)
1pt EW Romain Wattel at 35/1 (Stan James 888 Sport)
Golf tips - BMW Championship outright selections
BMW Championship Selections
1pt EW Louis Oosthuizen at 25/1 (Various)
2pt EW Jason Dufner at 25/1 (Various)
0.75pt EW Ryan Moore 1st round leader at 66/1 (Various)
Short weeks are not good fun when trying to pull these tips together..........
No point in writing a novel this week. So, simply, we arrive at a course with precious little course form to go on. The course is plenty long enough, but the interesting aspect for me is the relatively small greens here. The rough does not seem to be the most penal, but ball strikers who can dial in with their approach shots are greatly desired this week. Scrambling will be more of a factor this week, as players will be hitting plenty of long irons in to small targets and greens will inevitably be missed.
So, to my thoughts/selections
Rory is rejected for this reason. Rory's last 5 wins have been followed by 103rd, 51st, 3rd, 35th and 26th after round 1 of the following tournament 3rd was in Dubai, an event he had to win to have a chance of catching Luke Donald in the race - he eventually finished 11th, his first non-top 6 in 5 events. So, I personally am going to be brave and lay Rory on the exchanges and hope he meanders again on Thursday. I also think the high drama of watching anxiously as Louis Oosthuizen just missed his putt to force a play-off may leave him slightly flat coming in here. Finally, good scrambling and great putting stats last week compensated for a pretty average approach game (37th in GIR, 30th in proximity to the hole). I am not convinced he will get away with less than perfect irons this week, although his high, long and towering irons will be well suited to this challenge if he is dialled in.
Tiger is interesting, because his form last week ticks boxes for my photo fit golfer this week. 4th in driving distance and a useful enough 20th in accuracy, 2nd in greens, 12th in strokes gained putting and 2nd in scrambling is highly compelling stuff from Tiger. Tiger was also 19th in proximity to the hole last week, although approaches over 200 yards (62nd) and over 100 yards (28th) is not ideal for the lengthy Crooked Stick this week. Tiger has gone toe to toe with Rory recently at the PGA and here and Rory has won both times. However, Tiger was closing in last time out rather than seeing Rory waltz off in to the distance. I am really struggling to leave Tiger alone, but just will, because I think the price is probably about fair. My slight nagging doubt is that he was heavily involved in the late Monday finish and has not yet had two really dialled in weeks with his approach game all year. After a top 10 GIR performance, he has been no better than 23rd the following week in that stat. I just leave him here.
Tiger and Rory, when paired together at the Barclays, failed to really sparkle. Reason if you are wavering to exercise caution I feel.
Jason Dufner did not putt well enough to win last week and then did not avoid double and triple bogeys enough over the weekend to threaten a place (92nd in bogey avoidance last week). But..........he was 5th in proximity to the hole, 5th in approaches over 200 yards and 11th in greens hit as well as 7th in scrambling. So, hidden in among the headline stats is a player who should find he can fire at Crooked Stick. Dufner is holding steady at 25s and is now joint 6th favourite. It seems the market has lost faith in Dufner more than I have. Sorry folks, but he makes my team again.
I have ignored my system for Rory and it is telling me that if not Rory, I should back Oosthuizen. There is still some 25s out there and Louis was sensational approaching the green and in putting. Louis showed when winning in Malaysia straight after the Masters that he can dust himself down and perform the following week. Oosthuizen is a spells players, who gets hot for a time before then gently ebbing away from the sharp end. So, I am going to back that the run continues. In a 70 man field, several of whom will have a pressure to make the Tour Championship final event when it comes to the final round, Louis will be freer than most to just go for the prize. Let's play him here.
My final play this week is on Ryan Moore. In 2010, Moore dialled in for the FedExCup climax, lying 2nd after day 1 of this event and finishing 3rd, before following up with 9th at East Lake. In 2011, Moore was 16th in this event, which was not quite enough to qualify for East Lake. Moore sits 35th in the FedEx cup race and needs to follow up his strong 10th last week with another good display to make East Lake. 11th in GIR last week and 3rd in proximity to the hole, Moore's success or otherwise will depend on whether his scrambling can improve this week. 80/1 is a good price to find out whether he does or not. My final question is whether outright or 1st round leader is the best way to go. Since start 2010, he has had 8 top 5s. In the same period 10 times top 5 after round 1, one of which (Well Fargo this year) was as 1st round leader. Crooked Stick may be a little long for Moore over 4 days I fancy. I am going to play him 1st round leader only here.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
1pt EW Louis Oosthuizen at 25/1 (Various)
2pt EW Jason Dufner at 25/1 (Various)
0.75pt EW Ryan Moore 1st round leader at 66/1 (Various)
Short weeks are not good fun when trying to pull these tips together..........
No point in writing a novel this week. So, simply, we arrive at a course with precious little course form to go on. The course is plenty long enough, but the interesting aspect for me is the relatively small greens here. The rough does not seem to be the most penal, but ball strikers who can dial in with their approach shots are greatly desired this week. Scrambling will be more of a factor this week, as players will be hitting plenty of long irons in to small targets and greens will inevitably be missed.
So, to my thoughts/selections
Rory is rejected for this reason. Rory's last 5 wins have been followed by 103rd, 51st, 3rd, 35th and 26th after round 1 of the following tournament 3rd was in Dubai, an event he had to win to have a chance of catching Luke Donald in the race - he eventually finished 11th, his first non-top 6 in 5 events. So, I personally am going to be brave and lay Rory on the exchanges and hope he meanders again on Thursday. I also think the high drama of watching anxiously as Louis Oosthuizen just missed his putt to force a play-off may leave him slightly flat coming in here. Finally, good scrambling and great putting stats last week compensated for a pretty average approach game (37th in GIR, 30th in proximity to the hole). I am not convinced he will get away with less than perfect irons this week, although his high, long and towering irons will be well suited to this challenge if he is dialled in.
Tiger is interesting, because his form last week ticks boxes for my photo fit golfer this week. 4th in driving distance and a useful enough 20th in accuracy, 2nd in greens, 12th in strokes gained putting and 2nd in scrambling is highly compelling stuff from Tiger. Tiger was also 19th in proximity to the hole last week, although approaches over 200 yards (62nd) and over 100 yards (28th) is not ideal for the lengthy Crooked Stick this week. Tiger has gone toe to toe with Rory recently at the PGA and here and Rory has won both times. However, Tiger was closing in last time out rather than seeing Rory waltz off in to the distance. I am really struggling to leave Tiger alone, but just will, because I think the price is probably about fair. My slight nagging doubt is that he was heavily involved in the late Monday finish and has not yet had two really dialled in weeks with his approach game all year. After a top 10 GIR performance, he has been no better than 23rd the following week in that stat. I just leave him here.
Tiger and Rory, when paired together at the Barclays, failed to really sparkle. Reason if you are wavering to exercise caution I feel.
Jason Dufner did not putt well enough to win last week and then did not avoid double and triple bogeys enough over the weekend to threaten a place (92nd in bogey avoidance last week). But..........he was 5th in proximity to the hole, 5th in approaches over 200 yards and 11th in greens hit as well as 7th in scrambling. So, hidden in among the headline stats is a player who should find he can fire at Crooked Stick. Dufner is holding steady at 25s and is now joint 6th favourite. It seems the market has lost faith in Dufner more than I have. Sorry folks, but he makes my team again.
I have ignored my system for Rory and it is telling me that if not Rory, I should back Oosthuizen. There is still some 25s out there and Louis was sensational approaching the green and in putting. Louis showed when winning in Malaysia straight after the Masters that he can dust himself down and perform the following week. Oosthuizen is a spells players, who gets hot for a time before then gently ebbing away from the sharp end. So, I am going to back that the run continues. In a 70 man field, several of whom will have a pressure to make the Tour Championship final event when it comes to the final round, Louis will be freer than most to just go for the prize. Let's play him here.
My final play this week is on Ryan Moore. In 2010, Moore dialled in for the FedExCup climax, lying 2nd after day 1 of this event and finishing 3rd, before following up with 9th at East Lake. In 2011, Moore was 16th in this event, which was not quite enough to qualify for East Lake. Moore sits 35th in the FedEx cup race and needs to follow up his strong 10th last week with another good display to make East Lake. 11th in GIR last week and 3rd in proximity to the hole, Moore's success or otherwise will depend on whether his scrambling can improve this week. 80/1 is a good price to find out whether he does or not. My final question is whether outright or 1st round leader is the best way to go. Since start 2010, he has had 8 top 5s. In the same period 10 times top 5 after round 1, one of which (Well Fargo this year) was as 1st round leader. Crooked Stick may be a little long for Moore over 4 days I fancy. I am going to play him 1st round leader only here.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Wednesday 29 August 2012
Omega European Masters Outright selections
Outright selections
1pt EW Lee Slattery at 150/1 (Various)
1pt EW Gregory Bourdy at 66/1 (Various)
1pt EW Anders Hansen at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Pablo Larrazabal at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Brett Rumford at 55/1 (Stan James, 50/1 various)
1pt EW Lee Slattery at 150/1 (Various)
1pt EW Gregory Bourdy at 66/1 (Various)
1pt EW Anders Hansen at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Pablo Larrazabal at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Brett Rumford at 55/1 (Stan James, 50/1 various)
Tuesday 28 August 2012
Golf tips - Deutsche Bank Championship Outright selections
Outright selections
2pts EW Luke Donald at 18/1 (victor Chandler)
1.5pts EW Jason Dufner at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Geoff Ogilvy at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 50/1 (Various)
Hi all
This started as my tournament form guide and has morphed in to my formal preview for the event after it grew out of all proportion. The claims of the leading protagonists on a course form basis are compelling enough for me to go with it. I have done my usual system work and no big outsiders are showing up strongly enough this week. So, here it is. Enjoy (make a nice hot drink and get comfortable before starting)
The usual course/tournament form analysis below.
My course analysis goes back to 2003 and I analyse in the following way:
First, a general comment. This event is stacked with players who have thrived over the years on this course. TPC Boston seems to reward classy players, who can get it done around the greens. No surprise then to see the likes of Stricker, Snedeker, Ogilvy and Donald near the top given this.
So to the individual players. Steve Stricker is ranked 1 here, due to an excellent overall record. Before a surprisingly average 42nd last year, Stricker had finished 9th, 1st, 13th 9th and 7th in the 5 years prior; 4 of those five years (2007-2010) were results gained in the current play-offs format too, of course. Stricker arrives here in good form too. I spent some time talking about his chances last week, before a 54th placed finish somewhat ended the momentum. I am not overly concerned by that finish. It was a tough course and a number of great putters had a hard time on the greens over the weekend in particular. Stricker was 4th in approaches from under 100 yards, 15th in proximity to the hole and 12th in approaches from over 200 yards. Clearly, he is still striking the ball very nicely. It was actually in his around the green game that he struggled. That should not remain for long and the man with a great record around here should go well again. Motivation should not be a factor either. Stricker sits 10th in the Ryder cup standings and will want to try and make a definite statement to DLIII ahead of his wildcard picks being made. A 2nd indifferent week will be very bad timing for Stricker, although he must have a great chance of inclusion even if this does happen. I just can leave him out again this week. Again, I am a little nervous, but I want to see more than 28/1 for a player I do not think has great win claims right now.
Perhaps (definitely) surprisingly, Charley Hoffman ranks 2nd. His win in 2010 is an obvious reason he ranks well, but Hoffman has been in the top 33 in each of the last 4 years showing he can play the course well. I do not think that he merits the 2nd ranking here, especially when you consider the merits of some of the guys below. My system ranks are based upon set criteria, which sometimes throws out oddities such as this. Before I go on though, let's look to what extent I think Hoffman might shock the field and challenge again this year. I don't. 4 MCs coming in to this event is hardly a ringing endorsement of his chances. In finishing 31st when defending last year, Hoffman had placed 10th at the Barclays and 37th and 25th in two of the previous 4 events. In winning in 2010, Hoffman's previous 8 events read 25-27-41-7-4-83-10-27. He is not anywhere near that form and I do not see a challenge here. Hoffman has really been struggling with the flatstick, ranking 94th or worse in his last 4 events for putts per round. This tournament demands that you putt well and, despite some decent tee to green stats for accuracy (Barclays aside) recently, I feel he has far too much to find.
OK, back to the big boys. 1st and 2nd in the first two years of this event (2003 and 2004, in the old format) and 5th and 8th last two years, Adam Scott has a great chance of going well again here. I have a slight mental block in trusting Adam Scott, but I am becoming less ardent about it. In 13 events this year, Scott has 8 top 15 finishes, but only 2 top 5s. One of those should have been a British Open win of course and his form has been only OK since. My problem with Scott is that he is always liable to have a mental snooze for a day or two in an event and that is often costly in a top class field. Obviously, Scott was outstanding for 68 holes at Lytham, but in every event this year he has posted a score that has been the 44th or worse best round in the field on one of the 4 days. It is tough to win when you do that. There in a nutshell is my issue. In 2010, Scott meandered on days 1 and 2, but then produced a great weekend to place. Last year, Scott started well and then really fell away in finishing 8th. There is no doubt he can, but there is plenty of evidence that he will not. Scott is contracting in the market and I have to leave him at prices of around 25s this week.
Geoff Ogilvy is very interesting. He is generally 50s, but that will probably not last as people realise his record here. Since this event gained an increased importance in 2007 and became a play-off event Ogilvy has finished (2007 first) 6-72-7-2-25. That is compelling form. Ogilvy is simmering in current form too and threatening to start performing again right at the head of tournaments. Ogilvy has 10 top 30s in 13 events, but nothing better than 9th. If you see a top 20 market and have nothing to do with the wheelbarrow of cash sat outside your house, you could do worse. Slightly more practically, the Spreadex finishing position market certainly is worthy of consideration when available. I think the reason Ogilvy is not quite there results wise is because his putting is not where he would like it at the moment. 38th in strokes gained putting last week was decent, however, as was 20th in birdie or better. Ogilvy could just score big this week. I think 50s is value.
Jason Day frustrated me last week. We backed him at 80/1 and he showed me that I wasn't crazy to do so. After meandering at +2, Day rallied to finish -1 after day 1 and improved to -2 at halfway, only 5 from the lead. His tournament ended on day 3 with something of a horror round,but he rallied to produce the best round of the day on Sunday. The omens remain good, but can we play Day again here now he is 50s? Day has played here 4 times, finishing 50th, 19th, 2nd and 3rd. Clearly he has a strong affinity with the course. We are again on Bentgrass this week, which is a tick in the box for Day too. Day has not had as good a year this year, but it is a sign of how good a player he is that he has 4 top 10s to date in 2012. Where I believe Day will feel confident this week is that he can get away with less than stellar driving accuracy a lot more this week than he did last. Last week, 95th in driving accuracy played a big part in 97th GIR. However, Day was 15th in greens hit at the Deutsche last year despite only sitting 82nd in DA. What did seem to be in order last week was Day's putting, so if he can "get away" with a couple of less than perfect drives, he may well feature here. Day was 9th in birdie or better last week and 3rd in approaches over 100 yards. So, he is striking his irons well and rolling the putts nicely too. OK, the Aussie charge continues. He makes my team.
Tiger Woods in 7 appearances has a 1st, two 2nds, 7th and 11th twice. But, Tiger is a tough player to get right at the moment. There is much talk of his weekend deceleration and last week is the latest in a lengthening line of such examples. My main problem with Woods is linked to that. Since his full field comeback win at the Arnold Palmer in March, Woods has had 6 bad weekends. The tournaments? The Masters, The Players, The US Open, The British Open, The PGA and the Barclays. Apart from WGC Bridgestone, where Woods came from deep to make the top 10, he has failed in the 6 biggest events he has played in since April over the weekend. I have two other issues also. First, Tiger's stats were just OK last week. Unlike Jason Day, there is no feeling that he just needs a tweak or a more benevolent course. Woods struggled with the putter, was average off the tee, was average scrambling and just did not give any confidence that he can win this week. He seems to be striking his irons pretty well, but still not overly compelling. Finally, I am not sure how his health is, given the tweaked back and pain experienced last week. Had this not been a key play-offs event, I think he may have pulled out by now. He may yet still. I have to swerve Woods this week, but he can win if his ball is more readily in play as it should be.
Thoughts now on the rest of the top 10 ranked players. Phil is next, but, if you didn't believe last week at Bethpage Black, there is probably not enough reason to believe here, despite the 2007 win and 10th last year. Phil's odds have held too, because last week was by no means awful. I can't have him this week, although the two good rounds from 4 he did shoot last week suggests a game that may be coming around.
Brandt Snedeker has been 3rd and 5th last 2 years and is in very good form. After four average events coming in, Snedeker went 3rd at the Barclays and 3rd here last year. Well only 3 average events coming in this year, with 2nd at the Barclays is a nice omen ahead of this event. 4th in strokes gained putting last week and 20th in birdie or better, Snedeker really has a good chance to feature here. The question is whether I can have him at 28/1. I think I am just going to leave him.
Jason Dufner has had a week off, the week after I had a week off backing him in a tournament. OK, I have not been quite that ardent about it, but I always think hard about whether to have Dufner in my team. Dufner is this year's Webb Simpson for me in many ways, having delivered big from relative obscurity prior. Dufner was 2nd in 2009 here and followed up with 18th and 31st last 2 years also. After giving some guys a headstart in the FedEx cup race last week, Dufner has some catching up to do. The venue at which Webb did it last year has some nice symmetry for me given the similarities in the seasons of both. Last year, Dufner was 20th in putts per round here having been 88th and 95th in the two events prior. So, 47th in putts last time out worries me less than 9th and 4th before that encourages me. The difference is his ballstriking, which has moved from good to sensational in 2012. I think he has a glorious chance this week as long as he kept his eye on the practice side of things in the week off. Dufner's Zurich classic maiden win came after a week off, so I am sure he can keep the momentum rolling here.
Vijay is playing pretty well and has a great past record here. However, I can't trust his weekends any more. At 80s and generally 70s and lower, he has to be overlooked. 1st in 04 and 08 and 2nd in 06 tells you of his past prowess. Good luck if you are on him.
Finally, Luke Donald. Luke has been 2nd and 3rd last two years. And, on a course that tends to favour those with a stellar short game, it is no surprise at all to see. With par 5s that Donald can look at in 2 blows and an impeccable wedge game when he can't, Donald is very likely to keep the scoreboard ticking over. After last year's double money list win, it has been fairly quiet this year for him and he has been vocal about his own failure in majors. 3 top 10 finishes in 5 events and nothing worse than 32nd in that time tells you his game is in shape. I suspect he will be keen to again try and silence the doubters with a strong play-offs. He played well last week and should challenge again this. A note of caution: Donald's 3rd rounds have been poor this year on the whole. If he gets his Saturday right, he will be very close in this event I feel. A note of optimism: Since the Deutsche in 2010, Luke Donald has had 29 further top 10s in strokeplay events. If he fails to get a top 10 this week, it will be the first time he has started a top 10 streak and failed to follow it up with another since then (aside from the season ending European Tour event in Abu Dhabi). That is my killer stat for the week - Luke Donald is in my team too.
I started off trying to do my usual tournament form preview, but I feel I have written enough and picked enough golfers to consider my selections complete. Good luck to you all this week
Regards
Dave
2pts EW Luke Donald at 18/1 (victor Chandler)
1.5pts EW Jason Dufner at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Geoff Ogilvy at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 50/1 (Various)
Hi all
This started as my tournament form guide and has morphed in to my formal preview for the event after it grew out of all proportion. The claims of the leading protagonists on a course form basis are compelling enough for me to go with it. I have done my usual system work and no big outsiders are showing up strongly enough this week. So, here it is. Enjoy (make a nice hot drink and get comfortable before starting)
The usual course/tournament form analysis below.
My course analysis goes back to 2003 and I analyse in the following way:
- Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
- Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
- Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.
- Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use. In reality, this is not a factor here as TPC Boston has been the host since this event first played in 2003. Although the tournament has only been in its current guise since 2007, TPC Boston's permanent position as tournament host makes it worthwhile going back to 2003 for indicators.
As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year.
So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:
First, a general comment. This event is stacked with players who have thrived over the years on this course. TPC Boston seems to reward classy players, who can get it done around the greens. No surprise then to see the likes of Stricker, Snedeker, Ogilvy and Donald near the top given this.
So to the individual players. Steve Stricker is ranked 1 here, due to an excellent overall record. Before a surprisingly average 42nd last year, Stricker had finished 9th, 1st, 13th 9th and 7th in the 5 years prior; 4 of those five years (2007-2010) were results gained in the current play-offs format too, of course. Stricker arrives here in good form too. I spent some time talking about his chances last week, before a 54th placed finish somewhat ended the momentum. I am not overly concerned by that finish. It was a tough course and a number of great putters had a hard time on the greens over the weekend in particular. Stricker was 4th in approaches from under 100 yards, 15th in proximity to the hole and 12th in approaches from over 200 yards. Clearly, he is still striking the ball very nicely. It was actually in his around the green game that he struggled. That should not remain for long and the man with a great record around here should go well again. Motivation should not be a factor either. Stricker sits 10th in the Ryder cup standings and will want to try and make a definite statement to DLIII ahead of his wildcard picks being made. A 2nd indifferent week will be very bad timing for Stricker, although he must have a great chance of inclusion even if this does happen. I just can leave him out again this week. Again, I am a little nervous, but I want to see more than 28/1 for a player I do not think has great win claims right now.
Perhaps (definitely) surprisingly, Charley Hoffman ranks 2nd. His win in 2010 is an obvious reason he ranks well, but Hoffman has been in the top 33 in each of the last 4 years showing he can play the course well. I do not think that he merits the 2nd ranking here, especially when you consider the merits of some of the guys below. My system ranks are based upon set criteria, which sometimes throws out oddities such as this. Before I go on though, let's look to what extent I think Hoffman might shock the field and challenge again this year. I don't. 4 MCs coming in to this event is hardly a ringing endorsement of his chances. In finishing 31st when defending last year, Hoffman had placed 10th at the Barclays and 37th and 25th in two of the previous 4 events. In winning in 2010, Hoffman's previous 8 events read 25-27-41-7-4-83-10-27. He is not anywhere near that form and I do not see a challenge here. Hoffman has really been struggling with the flatstick, ranking 94th or worse in his last 4 events for putts per round. This tournament demands that you putt well and, despite some decent tee to green stats for accuracy (Barclays aside) recently, I feel he has far too much to find.
OK, back to the big boys. 1st and 2nd in the first two years of this event (2003 and 2004, in the old format) and 5th and 8th last two years, Adam Scott has a great chance of going well again here. I have a slight mental block in trusting Adam Scott, but I am becoming less ardent about it. In 13 events this year, Scott has 8 top 15 finishes, but only 2 top 5s. One of those should have been a British Open win of course and his form has been only OK since. My problem with Scott is that he is always liable to have a mental snooze for a day or two in an event and that is often costly in a top class field. Obviously, Scott was outstanding for 68 holes at Lytham, but in every event this year he has posted a score that has been the 44th or worse best round in the field on one of the 4 days. It is tough to win when you do that. There in a nutshell is my issue. In 2010, Scott meandered on days 1 and 2, but then produced a great weekend to place. Last year, Scott started well and then really fell away in finishing 8th. There is no doubt he can, but there is plenty of evidence that he will not. Scott is contracting in the market and I have to leave him at prices of around 25s this week.
Geoff Ogilvy is very interesting. He is generally 50s, but that will probably not last as people realise his record here. Since this event gained an increased importance in 2007 and became a play-off event Ogilvy has finished (2007 first) 6-72-7-2-25. That is compelling form. Ogilvy is simmering in current form too and threatening to start performing again right at the head of tournaments. Ogilvy has 10 top 30s in 13 events, but nothing better than 9th. If you see a top 20 market and have nothing to do with the wheelbarrow of cash sat outside your house, you could do worse. Slightly more practically, the Spreadex finishing position market certainly is worthy of consideration when available. I think the reason Ogilvy is not quite there results wise is because his putting is not where he would like it at the moment. 38th in strokes gained putting last week was decent, however, as was 20th in birdie or better. Ogilvy could just score big this week. I think 50s is value.
Jason Day frustrated me last week. We backed him at 80/1 and he showed me that I wasn't crazy to do so. After meandering at +2, Day rallied to finish -1 after day 1 and improved to -2 at halfway, only 5 from the lead. His tournament ended on day 3 with something of a horror round,but he rallied to produce the best round of the day on Sunday. The omens remain good, but can we play Day again here now he is 50s? Day has played here 4 times, finishing 50th, 19th, 2nd and 3rd. Clearly he has a strong affinity with the course. We are again on Bentgrass this week, which is a tick in the box for Day too. Day has not had as good a year this year, but it is a sign of how good a player he is that he has 4 top 10s to date in 2012. Where I believe Day will feel confident this week is that he can get away with less than stellar driving accuracy a lot more this week than he did last. Last week, 95th in driving accuracy played a big part in 97th GIR. However, Day was 15th in greens hit at the Deutsche last year despite only sitting 82nd in DA. What did seem to be in order last week was Day's putting, so if he can "get away" with a couple of less than perfect drives, he may well feature here. Day was 9th in birdie or better last week and 3rd in approaches over 100 yards. So, he is striking his irons well and rolling the putts nicely too. OK, the Aussie charge continues. He makes my team.
Tiger Woods in 7 appearances has a 1st, two 2nds, 7th and 11th twice. But, Tiger is a tough player to get right at the moment. There is much talk of his weekend deceleration and last week is the latest in a lengthening line of such examples. My main problem with Woods is linked to that. Since his full field comeback win at the Arnold Palmer in March, Woods has had 6 bad weekends. The tournaments? The Masters, The Players, The US Open, The British Open, The PGA and the Barclays. Apart from WGC Bridgestone, where Woods came from deep to make the top 10, he has failed in the 6 biggest events he has played in since April over the weekend. I have two other issues also. First, Tiger's stats were just OK last week. Unlike Jason Day, there is no feeling that he just needs a tweak or a more benevolent course. Woods struggled with the putter, was average off the tee, was average scrambling and just did not give any confidence that he can win this week. He seems to be striking his irons pretty well, but still not overly compelling. Finally, I am not sure how his health is, given the tweaked back and pain experienced last week. Had this not been a key play-offs event, I think he may have pulled out by now. He may yet still. I have to swerve Woods this week, but he can win if his ball is more readily in play as it should be.
Thoughts now on the rest of the top 10 ranked players. Phil is next, but, if you didn't believe last week at Bethpage Black, there is probably not enough reason to believe here, despite the 2007 win and 10th last year. Phil's odds have held too, because last week was by no means awful. I can't have him this week, although the two good rounds from 4 he did shoot last week suggests a game that may be coming around.
Brandt Snedeker has been 3rd and 5th last 2 years and is in very good form. After four average events coming in, Snedeker went 3rd at the Barclays and 3rd here last year. Well only 3 average events coming in this year, with 2nd at the Barclays is a nice omen ahead of this event. 4th in strokes gained putting last week and 20th in birdie or better, Snedeker really has a good chance to feature here. The question is whether I can have him at 28/1. I think I am just going to leave him.
Jason Dufner has had a week off, the week after I had a week off backing him in a tournament. OK, I have not been quite that ardent about it, but I always think hard about whether to have Dufner in my team. Dufner is this year's Webb Simpson for me in many ways, having delivered big from relative obscurity prior. Dufner was 2nd in 2009 here and followed up with 18th and 31st last 2 years also. After giving some guys a headstart in the FedEx cup race last week, Dufner has some catching up to do. The venue at which Webb did it last year has some nice symmetry for me given the similarities in the seasons of both. Last year, Dufner was 20th in putts per round here having been 88th and 95th in the two events prior. So, 47th in putts last time out worries me less than 9th and 4th before that encourages me. The difference is his ballstriking, which has moved from good to sensational in 2012. I think he has a glorious chance this week as long as he kept his eye on the practice side of things in the week off. Dufner's Zurich classic maiden win came after a week off, so I am sure he can keep the momentum rolling here.
Vijay is playing pretty well and has a great past record here. However, I can't trust his weekends any more. At 80s and generally 70s and lower, he has to be overlooked. 1st in 04 and 08 and 2nd in 06 tells you of his past prowess. Good luck if you are on him.
Finally, Luke Donald. Luke has been 2nd and 3rd last two years. And, on a course that tends to favour those with a stellar short game, it is no surprise at all to see. With par 5s that Donald can look at in 2 blows and an impeccable wedge game when he can't, Donald is very likely to keep the scoreboard ticking over. After last year's double money list win, it has been fairly quiet this year for him and he has been vocal about his own failure in majors. 3 top 10 finishes in 5 events and nothing worse than 32nd in that time tells you his game is in shape. I suspect he will be keen to again try and silence the doubters with a strong play-offs. He played well last week and should challenge again this. A note of caution: Donald's 3rd rounds have been poor this year on the whole. If he gets his Saturday right, he will be very close in this event I feel. A note of optimism: Since the Deutsche in 2010, Luke Donald has had 29 further top 10s in strokeplay events. If he fails to get a top 10 this week, it will be the first time he has started a top 10 streak and failed to follow it up with another since then (aside from the season ending European Tour event in Abu Dhabi). That is my killer stat for the week - Luke Donald is in my team too.
I started off trying to do my usual tournament form preview, but I feel I have written enough and picked enough golfers to consider my selections complete. Good luck to you all this week
Regards
Dave
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