At&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Tips

1.5pts EW Hunter Mahan at 22/1 (take Bodog's 6 places, but 22s widely avaialble)
1pt EW Spencer Levin at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Sean O'Hair at 50/1 (Various)
0.5pts EW Cameron Tringale at 90/1 (Bet365, 80s various)

Tournament guide
Anybody who read my synopsis for the Human challenge - a Pro-am event played on 3 different courses - might be anticipating a series of highly priced picks who can turn up in a random format event.  However, the Pebble Beach event is an entirely different proposition, littered with big name winners and perhaps more importantly, winners who have deomanstrated recently that their overall game is in fine order.

Spyglass, Monterey and Pebble Beach are used in rotation for this event, with Pebble Beach used again for the final round.  All are around 6800 yards, with Monterey being by far the easiest course.  Despite the modest yardage, Pebble Beach and Spyglass actually ranked amongst the toughest par 72 courses on tour last year.

Technical tracks such as Spyglass and Pebble Beach demand accuracy and a player who is confident in their game and ball striking.  Confidence is bred by players who have turned up well in recent tournaments and demonstrated they are playing well.  You are unlikely to find your game this week, but will be found out if all elements are not working well.  Previous winners are a succession of players who have demonstrated form in recent build up tournaments.

The challenge of Spyglass and Pebble Beach does not diminish the importance of Monterey either.  The headline brief is to get the scoring done at Monterey and stay solid in the other 3 rounds.  Phil Mickelson, a previous winner in 2007, largely failed to challege last year due to a poor 71 at Monterey.

That said, the pro-am format does also give a different atmosphere to normal events, with the amateurs present even after the cut line is introduced at the end of day 3.

The players I didn't pick
So to the selections.  I am looking for players who hit greens, can keep themselves out of trouble and putt really well on what are tricky Po Annua greens.  I also want players in form, preferably with demonstrable prowess previously at Pebble Beach.  Coastal course positives are also sought, with British Open prowess also a consideration.  Finally, scrambling may be key due to the small greens and likelihood that GIR will be lower than usual this week for most.

At the head of the market, I am willing to overlook the top four.  A lot of people are srabbling to get on Woods while the 11/2 is still there - Woods opened at a general 6/1.  However, given all I have said about players having to be at one with their game, I still have enough doubts in Woods to leave him alone.  Sure, he has a definite chance, but I am not happy enough to take the outright W price and I certainly am not putting my faith in a big bet to get a marginal place return.

Dustin Johnson has won twice here recently and undoubtedly has the right credentials to get it done.  However, there are too many questions about his form.  I opposed him correctly in a match bet last week and he showed no signs at all that he was in the right place to come and win here.  Fowler should be regularly competing for tournament victories.  That he is not is something that is not ability based and he will surely get there.  However, while he does, I am happy to back against him finding the consistency that deserted him last week.

Phil's odds have inevitably contracted.  Had the 25/1 still been avaialble, I might have considered him this week.  However, his form in the key areas is fairly abject in recent weeks and he is overlooked.

A quick word about Bryce Molder.  I wanted to pick him, but can't at the prices offered.  But, a serious chance this week.

This week's tips
Hunter Mahan, on the other hand, is playing very nicely and has attractive stats in driving accuracy, GIR and putting, all of which I believe will be key this week.  A fine player and in form, I expect him to put up a big challenge.

Spencer Levin should have won last week and effectively gave the title away.  However, I am willing to back the fact that he arrives this week of clear mind and able to produce the sort of game that fits this week's brief perfectly.  Levin is a very good player of tough tracks.  He finished 9th in the Canadian Open last year at Shaughnessey, exactly the sort of positive sign that we need to see ahead of this week.  Indeed, Levin had a string of strong results early season (including T4 here) at tougher courses, before fading in the middle of the year.  If he is in contention after round 1, we can expect a good run from him this week.  I would also point you twards the first round leader market with Levin.  He is playing Monterey first, has been 1st and 3rd after round 1 in his last two events, and led the field by round 1 three times in the first 13 weeks of 2011.  I can only see prices on Betfair thus far (35s), but well worth a consideration.  I hoped he would play Monterey first, as his swing and confidence will be less examined on that course, which gives the outright bet the best chance after the issues in round 4 last week.

Sean O'Hair makes our team at 50/1.  O'Hair won the aforementioned Canadian Open last year, since which time he has strung together a series of good performances.  A fine striker of the ball, and with two top 40 finishes in the last two years when in poorer form, O'Hair can step up here this week.  Also, he has had strong results in the past in the British Open.

Finally, a small play on Camron Tringale.  Tringale finished a creditable 4th at the recent Farmers Insurance Open and, away from the main tour, missed a 12 footer to win the Pebble Beach Invitational in November 2011 (he then missed the 2 footer for par and lost by a stroke).  I like the link between the Farmers and here, as there is a similar putting challenge for the players.  Tringale ranked 18th for putting at Torrey Pines.  Tringale starts at Spyglass and if he has a solid first round, he could give us a real run at bigger odds.