Mayakoba Golf Classic Tips 23rd February

1pt Ew Roberto Castro at 125/1 (Totesport, Coral, BetFred) Loss 2pts
0.5pt EW Eric Compton at 150/ 1 (Coral, Skybet) Loss 1pt
1pt Ew Heath Slocum at 40/1 (Bet365) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Michael Thompson at 50/1 (Betfred, 45s Loss 2pts
The tournament
A good tipping week last week, with 5 of the 8 golfers I had in consideration for the Northern Trust Open finishing T4th or better.  A real frustration that profit was only marginal given this, but we are on the right track.  This week is a trickier proposition, with a little more finesse required to dissect the field.
From research it seems that there is some value in siding with experience this week, with previous winners such as Funk, Beckman and Johnson Wagner all having previously won on tour before adding a welcome and somewhat surprising additional W to their CV here.
An ability to course manage and keep the ball on the fairways and greens, particularly when the wind blows, makes this a thinker's challenge rather than a bombers haven.  It is no surprise therefore to see that the then 47 year old Funk won this event in 2007 and the likes of John Cook (3rd) and Tom Lehman (13th), challenge strongly last year also.
So, I want players who can control their game this week and play consistent tee to green golf.  I also want to consider good wedge players, given a number of shots on this short course will require a lofted club in to the green.
Motivation is another key theme here this week.  The allure of trying to lock up playing privileges makes this a potentially stand out tournament in the first few months of the year for a number of players.  Occurring in the same week as the Accenture Matchplay, the field is littered with players who do not often get the job done. This is a great chance for a player who may not show up week in week out to gain a big result and secure their card for the next two years.  
The Selections
There are 6 men under 30/1 for this event and all have reasonable claims this week.  However, I will overlook them all.  Levin arguably has the best credentials for me, given his strong recent form.  I am most impressed by his 9th in the AT&T Pebble Beach, which included a very ordinary round on the much easier Monterey course.  With the wind likely to be a factor this week, his ability to play tough courses well may stand him in good stead here.
The likes of Jarrod Lyle and Brian Gay have accuracy as their main weapon, with a sound wedge game also a real feature.  However, Gay is maddeningly inconsistent (I know, I have backed him enough) and, despite a very good record here including a win, I have to leave alone quotes no better than 16/1.  Similarly, Jarrod Lyle's stand out result last week does not make him a 20/1 shot in my eyes.  Charles Howell III does not win often enough despite his obvious ability to get the job done.  Rory Sabbattini is in one of his familiar periods in which he is at odds with himself and his game.  By no means definitive, but I question whether he will be fully on his game if a couple of shots go awry and conditions stiffen.
Finally, defending champion Johnson Wagner is back and made some very positive comments about the event having won last year.  Wagner is in good form of course having won already this season, but I can't trust him to get it done at 14s.
So first, two players who have graduated on to the main tour this year and have started in quite effective fashion.  Neither ticks the box for experience, but both did well on the Nationwide tour in Mexico last year. Eric Compton, despite winning the event on the Nationwide tour last year, is rightly the bigger odds of the two, having not shown as much consistency as Castro on the main tour.  However, I believe he is worth having on side here in an event which will throw up some 'surprises' at the head of the field.
Castro I rather like.  His 4th in Mexico last year is in at least useful.  However, it is his recent prowess from tee to green that catches my eye here.  Using my adjusted rankings, I have Compton 26th for recent driving accuracy and 27th for GIR, whch in this field ranks him amongst the very best.  I believe he has a real chance to have a run in this event if he retains that sort of control.  Castro's putting stats are also useful and I am hopefully that he can really get the flat stick working to give us a chance of a big pay out.
At 40/1 Heath Slocum is my shortest priced pick this week.  He last played here in 2010, finishing 13th.  In addition, his last to events at the WM Phoenix Open and AT&T Pebble Beach offer some hidden positives. In both events, Slocum has recovered from a poor first round to place solidly in the event.  His round ranks versus the field for his last 2 events read 105, 18, 18, 14, 134, 56, 7, 14.  So, if he can start better, he has a big claim this week.
Michael Thompson grabbed my attention again when scoring an excellent 17th last week on a very challenging track.  He had an excellent end to 2011, and after a slower start this year, he is threatening to again start contending.  In this sort of field, a good performance from Thompson will see him do just that.  Thompson missed the cut here last year, but then went on to produce three tour top 10s, followed by an excellent 3rd placed behind Westwood and Schwartzel in the Thai Golf Championship.
I have to an extent belied my initial statement regarding experience here, but I believe that in Slocum (experienced) and Castro, I have two of the most controlled players in the field at very attractive prices.  Compton and Thompson are more feel picks, with the former an attractive price and the latter a real threat if his form continues.  3 top 6 finishes in 4 events last year suggests that he can keep his hot form going in to this week.
I wanted to get Beckman onside, but initial quotes of 70/1 have long since disappeared.  At 11/2 for a top 10 finish, I would not put anybody off.  However, his erratic form stops me formally putting him up here.  the likes of Stroud and Huh were considered, with Chad Campbell very close given his recent stats.  However, I feel we have a good mix of players here who can keep us interested deep in to Sunday.