0.2pts SELL Padraig Harrington at 40 (Spreadex)
New to spread betting? Check my guide here http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/p/spread-betting-guide.html
Shell Houston outright tips http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/shell-houston-open-tips.html
Shell Houston recent form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/shell-houston-open-recent-form-guide.html
With the myriad of betting options available for each golfer in each tournament, it is sometimes prudent to consider different ways other than a straight outright tournament bet in backing an individual before the tournament commences.
This week, we look at Padraig Harrington, a player who is either ready to win again or not able to put 4 rounds together, depending on your outlook. Harrington is trying to bed a new swing in and there are clear signs of improvement. However, an EW bet this week is a leap of faith as Harrington has nothing better than a 7th place in his appearances to date in 2012.
The chart below shows Harrington's finishes in the last 15 months. 70 is the default for missed cuts or finishes above 70th, in line with the upper score limit with Spreadex
15 months and 30 tournaments then, with a single top 3 in the event he was defending in Asia and 6 further top 10 finishes. Hardly inspiring.
Yet, despite this, Harrington is priced up at 50/1 this week. There is no way I could justify or advise a place bet on Harrington this week from looking at this profile. 50/1 = 12.5/1 for a place finish. Harrington needs to place once every 12 or so tournaments for this bet to be cost neutral. Are you backing he gets past Lee, Phil, Steve, Keegan and all the other top players this week?
This view is of course a little one dimensional. So, let's glance at Harrington's tournament form.
| 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
| 8 | 40 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 32 |
This looks a little more promising. Harrington has played 6 years straight and has a worst finish of 40th, with his best PGA finish of 2011 being an 8th here last year.
Finally, let's consider Harrington's recent GIR record, as this is the single biggest factor this week (usually).
| Weeknum | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 |
| GIR ranking | 75 | 56 | 123 | 45 |
Not much to be excited about here either. Harrington's 45th in greens hit last time out is an improvement however. Also, driving accuracy is much less a factor here and that can only help Harrington, who finished 5th in greens in 2011, but 109th in accuracy.
So, we have a player who has scratchy form and a poor conversion rate, but clear consistency on this course without producing anything explosive. So, how to bet?
Let's look at the headline odds available for Harrington this week.
To win : 50/1. Already discounted
Place only 12/1. Already discounted
1st round leader 55/1. Some merits. 9th after round 1 here in 2011 and 1st in round 1 last time out. In addition, 5th after round 1 of the Volvo Golf Champions event earlier this year, plus a 4th at the Barclays in 2011 and 2nd in the 2011 Season opener in Abu Dhabi. Still hardly irresistible, but apparently better than the outright bet.
Top 10 finish 5/1. This has landed 7 out of 30 times, including here last year. In cold stats, that is 3.29/1. So, value on the face of things. Certainly, this has more merit than any other outright bet and with a little more consistency this year, this looks OK.
Top 20 finish 2/1. Has landed 10 out of 30 times, which is 2/1. Top 10 clearly the better value shout.
Spreadex sell at 40. This bet I like. This would have at worst broken even in each of the last 6 years here. In addition, an improving Harrington would have yielded a return in 9 of his last 14 events, with an average finishing position of 32nd. .
In play bet. This has been a terrible bet for Harrington in recent weeks and months. Harrington has been an average of 18th at halfway this season, versus 31st average at the end of the tournament. There is no benefit in waiting to see how Padraig starts before getting on board, because the value will disappear and the disappointment is more likely than the in-play position would seem.
Betfair outright bet. Applying the same logic as above, I would not discourage an outright bet before the off with Betfair, with the proviso being that you get out before round 3 to make it a value proposition. As mentioned, Harrington has averaged 18th at halfway. That includes 2 second places at the halfway stage this year. Backing Harrington before the off and then at least recouping your stake before the 3rd round has definite merits. Aside from the limited field season opening Volvo golf Champions event, Harrington has not ranked in the top 40 scores in any tournament for round 3 this year.
If you want to back Harrington, hopefully the above synopsis gives you an idea of how best to get him onside. In short, a Spreadex sell bet, top 10 bet or Betfair outright bet offset before round 3 appears the clear value choice.
Regards
Dave
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