Open De Andalucia Tips

1.5pt EW Alejandro Canizares at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Rhys Davies at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Coral)
1pt EW Marcel Siem at 25/1 (Various)
0.5pts EW David Horsey at 100/1 (Bet365, 80/1 Various)

Aloha Golf Club hosts the Open De Andalucia this week, having not hosted since 2007/2008.  The course this week is a par 72 and under 7000 yards.  The tree-lined nature of the course deserves some respect, but winning scores of -20 and -16 here in the past confirm that birdies fulfill the brief this week.  Players who can thrive on tree-lined tracks should feel good this week, but the real key seems to be in an adeptness on the putting surface, aligned to a sound game from tee to green.

Alejandro Canizares has been on my radar for several weeks and strong finishes at the Avantha Masters and the Mayakoba classic (where he led the field in putting) serve to confirm his credentials.  Canizares caught my eye earlier in the season because, despite a number of midfield finishes, he continually ranked amongst the very best putters.  In recent tournaments, he has improved his iron play (I discount the Honda Classic MC as it is an entirely different challenge to this) and now represents a real threat on a non-challenging course and an average field to contend with.  A progressive ball striker with a great putting stroke is a pretty lethal combination this week.  Canizares actually opened at 50s, which is in my view a crazy price.  Not convinced yet?  Well, Canizares' best finish last year was in the Andalucia Masters, confirming he is at home in front of Ardent Spanish support.  Also, Canizares finished 18th here in 2007, confirming he can play this course.  Back the value.

Rhys Davies appeals for four reasons.  First, this is a good time of year for him.  Davies won the Trophee Hassan in March 2010 and was runner up to David Horsey the following year (more on him later).  Second, Davies is consistently one of the very best putters on tour and on this course, he should have plenty of scope to capitalise on that fact.  Next, Davies has a Challenge tour win in Spain and other good results on the main tour such as 2nd at the 2010 Madrid Masters; performing well in Spain is something that would not surprise.  Finally and perhaps most compelling given the above, Davies finished a strong 10th last time out at the Avanthat Masters, driven perhaps surprisingly by his GIR stats and not his putting.  The particularly grainy greens over there may have been a factor for one of the best an smoothest putters on tour.  If his iron play stays hot, expect the putter to get hot again.  If so, we have a major contender this week.

Marcel Siem is a player picked on form, with place finishes in the last two events.  I missed the very obvious by not tipping him last time out and  I do not want to do that again on a course which should be well suited for Siem.  51st for putts per round and 23rd for putts per GIR, Siem should go well again this week.

Finally, David Horsey.  As Rhys Davies has form at this time, so does the man who edged him last year in the Tropee Hassan.  At first glance, 100/1 for a man with a win on tour in each of the last two years is big in this quality of  field.  Tree lined courses suit Horsey, who has twice won on courses which demand careful course management off the tee.  Horsey also gave EW backers a good run when 7th behind Luke Donald at Wentworth last year.  The reason for Horsey's big price is his indifference so far this year.  However, Horsey gave followers plenty of warning on Twitter that his game was not well tuned and truly delivered to that expectation.  Since the Avantha, Horsey has had a further 3 weeks to find his season, and I am happy to back him to come back to form here at odds which could look extremely foolish come Sunday.