Golf betting: Trophee Hassan II tips

Tips
2pts EW Robert Rock at 25/1 (Various)
2pts EW Joost Luiten at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1.5pt EW Richie Ramsay at 66/1 (Hills, Coral, Ladbrokes)

Tournament guide

The European Tour moves to Morocco this week for the Trophee Hassan II.  From its setting literally within the late King's Palace to the jewel encrusted dagger awaiting the winner, golfers can expect to feel more special this week than they possibly do at any other venue.

There is one major change to events this year and from a punting perspective it is a good one.  Previously, one of the 4 rounds was a pro-am conducted on a different course, which threw up all manner of random variables that could upset the already complex lines and analysis required to find value within a given market.  Well, the pro-am is gone and so we are looking for the player who can play the single course, without distraction, in the least number of shots.  We have a better chance already.

David Horsey won this event last year, edging Rhys Davies in a play-off. Davies also won the event in 2010.  In terms of course form, this is all we really have.  The tournament is in its relative infancy; therefore, form players with the right sort of attributes are perhaps more desired than players who turned up here previously, especially as we have had a pro-am on 2010/11.

Posting tips before anybody else on Monday has its advantages, as it allows a clear mind in selecting golfers.  I have been interested and surprised to see an emphasis on putting from many other golf writers and forecasters.  I do not necessarily subscribe to that view.  The course is a Robert Trent Jones design and there is some value in looking at players who have displayed prowess on other courses designed by him.  The course is relatively tight, tree-lined and supports accuracy.  The winning score was -13 last year, which shows that golfers will have to be much more cautious this week if the weather is less than perfect.  Also guarding the course to an extent are the relatively small bentgrass greens in Morocco and deep bunkers around those greens.  So, my belief is that accurate players are needed here.  I want players who are hitting greens and consistently giving themselves a good chance of making a putt more than I want putting superstars.  Rhys Davies is perhaps the tour's best putter and has a form line of 1, 2 in this event.  However, I am not convinced that such a brief history necessarily dictates that the best putters fit the bill here.  The selections I have put up however do fit the bill for accuracy and the ability to make birdies in clutches when in form.

My selections
In Robert Rock, we have a player who is in fine form and has a real incentive to try and play his way in to the Masters this week by taking the title and going in to the World's top 50.  In 7 events this year, Rock has a 1st, a 9th and 4 other finishes in the top 25, including both WGC events - Rock's first appearances in that format.  Rock's only failure came when his celebrity was probably highest - a 51st in the tournament after going toe to toe with Tiger Woods and beating him.  I can forgive that.  Rock was 17th last week, which is a decent enough result and would have been better had his progress not slowed after a challenging first two days.  On a tree lined course last week, Rock was 11th in greens hit, which appeals here and demonstrates his game is not far away from where it needs to be.

Rock also contended for two rounds here last year, so can certainly handle the challenge.  Of the 2011 tournament, Rock said that he felt he was pushing too much in pursuit of the elusive win, which cost him a real chance to challenge.  This year, the pressure of trying to win for the first time is gone.  Indeed, Rock has now won twice and is a major player on tour these days.  In addition, and since my post, I am very encouraged by comments from Rock that he is starting to settle in to his game again after the increased coverage associated with his win and subsequent WGC appearances.

Given all the above and the fact that this field is very similar in quality, I see no reason for Rock's price to have drifted from 16s to 25s.  Take the added value.

Joost Luiten is a hugely attractive pick for me at 33/1 in this quality of field.  It is very recently that Luiten was going off at 20/1 in such events.  For me, Luiten's 5 results between 17th and 42nd this year is not enough to start pushing him out just yet.  They are all decent finishes and one feels Luiten is a couple of minor adjustments away from the step up, which is inevitable for this quality ball striker.  Jaco Van Zyl's claims here are clear, but to have a player who has little history outside South Africa shorter than Luiten makes precisely no sense (he is shorter than Rock as well).  The value is clearly with Luiten.  Luiten started last year in a similar way before then posting 4 straight top 20 results, including this event last year (11th).  So, his less than electric start should not concern.  A winner since on a course not entirely dis-similar to the challenge this week, I am very happy to have one of the tour's finest iron players on side here in what will be a closest to the pin challenge on many holes where position A is found after the drive.  Luiten is due another big challenge in this type of event very soon.  Hopefully, this week is his time.

Richie Ramsay, on first glance, was a leap of faith in my mind and I did not like the quote of 66/1 when first scanning the prices on Monday.  However, I then started to piece together a few positives that turned a marginal price in to an attractive one.  Ramsay's 33rd finish last week is nothing more than moderate in that quality of field.  However, I am very attracted by the fact that he ranked 1st in GIR for the event.  At 7th on tour for the season so far in GIR, I am convinced that Ramsay only needs to start holing a few putts to challenge strongly for a win.  Holing a few putts is usually his main problem though, so I am not going to tell anybody it will happen this week.  The GIR stats above are merely an affirmation that he is still in great form from tee to green.  But, the smaller greens and tighter holes this week should ensure that he hits more greens than most if not all and that may hold some significance.  On a course with punishing deep bunkers also around the green, I like the fact that Ramsay is likely to be rolling more birdie putts than most.

The other compelling factor is the link to Robert Trent Jones courses.  Most notably, Ramsay finished 6th last year at Valderamma, which is a short tree-lined course with relatively small greens.............but with teeth.  For all three players, I would not mind at all if conditions were less than perfect as all can handle that challenge better than most.  That looks unlikely, but does not diminish the value here for all 3.