2pt EW Matt Kuchar at 14/1 (Various)
1pt EW Kevin Stadler at 70/1 (Sporting bet)
1pt EW Brian Davis at 70/1 (SkyBet)
3pts Brian Davis to finish in the top 20 at 5/2 (Paddy Power)
Well, it's my own fault I guess. Life has really got in the way this week and I have been unable to post my usual reviews. The price has contracted on a number of players, some of whom are clearly on my radar this week.
Given that we are so close to the off, I will simply share with you the results of my analysis. The following table is my top 20 ranked players this week.
You can see from the attached that I am in accord on the top 3 in the betting as it was on Monday. Webb Simpson I actually think has impeccable credentials for this event, but I can not have him here after the emotionally draining week that has brought his first major win and all of the media commitments since.
In actuality, Hunter Mahan has moved in to joint favouritism for the event in the last 3 days, driven by his excellent course form here (Mahan is 3rd in my ranks for tournament form here). However, I do not like his form enough. A useful 24th in greens from my recent ranks on tour, Mahan's recent putting worries me. I also believe that on this short par 70, his relative lack of accuracy from within 100 yards will see him have a lot to do to make enough birdies this week.
Matt Kuchar maintained his good form last week and avoided the ultimate stress of vying for the win on Sunday, which is a probably a positive here this week. Matt Kuchar has a poor record here, but then he hasn't played here since 2008 - Kuchar is an entirely different player now. I fully expect him to challenge this week and he heads up my staklng plan.
Next I am going to play a man with 9 top 26 finishes in his last 12 events. He is still available at 70/1 despite this stat - it's Kevin Stadler. Stadler is 5th in my rankings, due to a very solid skill set in the areas I believe are key this week. Within the top 50 for both recent putts per round and greens, Stadler can put a poor run here in the past behind him this week and get involved. Stadler is 64th on tour for approaches within 100 yars and sits 22nd in par 4 birdie or better. A really solid fit for the event, despite past inconsistencies. A lack of previous form does not mean you can't win here - Jacobson's win last year followed 2 previous MCs in the event.
Brian Davis is in a similar mould to Stadler in the sense that they are demonstrating week in, week out that they are a threat in regulation tour events. Davis has 6 top 25 finishes in 8 events and this appears yet another event in which he is dismissed a little too readily by the layers. 31st in my tournament form rankings thanks in no small part to 9th last year, Davis has solid recent greens hit and putting stats, and sits in the top 25 for par 4 birdies and also is in the top 25 of my Bentgrass performer ratings in the last 2 years. Davis has a good game fit here and can get involved.
Matt Every would have got my vote here, but I have recently found that he has withdrawn from the event. The above table shows the likes of Gillis and Van Pelt up well also, but I am going to take a play on Brian Davis to be top 20 as my final pick. This move should cover other bets if it lands and I more than happy to bank on another strong week for the Englishman here by taking this cover
Regards
Dave (OneBet).
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