AT&T National Player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.nl/2012/06/golf-tips-at-national-player-form-guide.html
Hi all
As usual, my Tournament form analysis below.
The AT&T National has only been in existence since 2007, so a limited study versus my usual analysis back to 2001 for PGA tour events. Scoring as follows then:
- Tournament experience, with a maximum 6 points if a player has played 4 or more times
- Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
- Tournament form in 2011, 2010 and 2009, with up to 4 points available for each year.
- Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use. Congressional was used between 2007 and 2009, with Aronimink used in the last two years. We return to Congressional this year, so 2007-09 form takes added importance in this analysis and for our course form guide.
As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. Also note that I am putting this analysis up very early; all alternates are in my list (if they have played the event before) and not all players listed will make the field.
So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results (with further comments below):
Top of my tournament ranks is KJ Choi. Was 2nd here last year at Aronimink but won at this course in 2007. Finally rounding in to some form after a pretty torrid season, Congressional comes at a good time for Choi and at a time for us also potentially. No odds out yet, but look for something above the 50s mark as being a pretty interesting price. 15th last time in the US Open and 19th at the Mermorial tells us that Choi is getting close again. My main doubt is that the greens have changed since his win in 2007 in preapration for the US Open last year, at which Choi missed the cut.
Lucas Glover ties Choi on tournament form in my ranks. 3 top 25s in 4 attempts and his best two finishes on this course; 12th in 2007 and 5th in 2009. 42nd in the US Open here last year. At time of writing, Glover is heading for a midfield finish in the Travelers and his form has been pretty abject this year. Glover could be a sneaky top 20 bet for next week, although I need a little more convincing right now.
Bryce Molder is in a pretty horrible run of form right now. 64th at the Travelers and 3 MC in 5 events before today proves that. Last year's 6th at the Travelers started a run of 6 top 11 finishes in 11 results to the season's end so perhaps better times are ahead. 8th ,25th and 4th in the last 3 years at this event - the 4th being on this course - Molder will have positive memories ahead of next week. Molder did not make the US Open field last year at Congressional. A big leap of faith that all comes together in time for next week, despite course and tournament form positives.
Fresh from his best ever round, a 61 in round 4 of the Travelers to vault up the leaderbaord, Hunter Mahan has a strong record at the AT&T, which gets even better when you look at Congressional form. 30th last year at Aronimink but 8th/12th/2nd in the three years 2007-2009 at Congressional means that Mahan is a serious consideration this week. Mahan MC at last year's US Open here and has a form record on tour of 37th, 19th, 38th, 11th which is solid only coming in to next week's event. However, anything over 25/1 deserves serious thought.
Tiger is 5th in my ranks here, but was 6th in 2007 and 1st in 2009, both at Congressional. A near certainty to go off as a single figures favourite, Tiger will likely see this as another course he has fond past memories of and one he can win on. Woods edged Mahan by a shot in winning in 2009. It is likely that Mahan is triple Woods' price. I prefer the value play on Mahan of the two, especially with the questions that remain after Woods' US Open weekend.
Jim Furyk will no doubt have been hurting after losing the US Open. That he played well and that he is in a great run of consistent form should not be overlooked, however. If we ignore average finishes at Aronimink last 2 years and focus on his Congressional form prior to that, we see a run of 3rd, 3rd and 7th from 2007-2009. Furyk now has 9 straight top 26 finishes, 7 of which are top 13s. He is striking the ball superbly, which is sure to be a highly desired commodity again this year at AT&T. MC at last year's US Open dampens ardour for Furyk plus question marks over his ability to bounce back after the US Open. However, he has to be considered.
Other Congressional/AT&T combined notables:
- Pampling. 19th, 3rd, 20th between 2007 and 2009. 7th also in the Booz Allen classic here in 2005.
- Allenby. 6th 2007 and 3rd 2008. 13th in the Booz Allen.
- O'Hern. 3rd 2008 and 25th 2009.
- Perez. 3rd 2007 and 12th 2008.
Other notables include Moore, Overton, Howell III, Marino, Singh, Beckman, Van Pelt and Garrigus, all of whom scored over 10 points specifically in my AT&T/Congressional linked analysis specifcially. Others such as Watney above rank highly due to their Aronimink form.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Fresh from his best ever round, a 61 in round 4 of the Travelers to vault up the leaderbaord, Hunter Mahan has a strong record at the AT&T, which gets even better when you look at Congressional form. 30th last year at Aronimink but 8th/12th/2nd in the three years 2007-2009 at Congressional means that Mahan is a serious consideration this week. Mahan MC at last year's US Open here and has a form record on tour of 37th, 19th, 38th, 11th which is solid only coming in to next week's event. However, anything over 25/1 deserves serious thought.
Tiger is 5th in my ranks here, but was 6th in 2007 and 1st in 2009, both at Congressional. A near certainty to go off as a single figures favourite, Tiger will likely see this as another course he has fond past memories of and one he can win on. Woods edged Mahan by a shot in winning in 2009. It is likely that Mahan is triple Woods' price. I prefer the value play on Mahan of the two, especially with the questions that remain after Woods' US Open weekend.
Jim Furyk will no doubt have been hurting after losing the US Open. That he played well and that he is in a great run of consistent form should not be overlooked, however. If we ignore average finishes at Aronimink last 2 years and focus on his Congressional form prior to that, we see a run of 3rd, 3rd and 7th from 2007-2009. Furyk now has 9 straight top 26 finishes, 7 of which are top 13s. He is striking the ball superbly, which is sure to be a highly desired commodity again this year at AT&T. MC at last year's US Open dampens ardour for Furyk plus question marks over his ability to bounce back after the US Open. However, he has to be considered.
Other Congressional/AT&T combined notables:
- Pampling. 19th, 3rd, 20th between 2007 and 2009. 7th also in the Booz Allen classic here in 2005.
- Allenby. 6th 2007 and 3rd 2008. 13th in the Booz Allen.
- O'Hern. 3rd 2008 and 25th 2009.
- Perez. 3rd 2007 and 12th 2008.
Other notables include Moore, Overton, Howell III, Marino, Singh, Beckman, Van Pelt and Garrigus, all of whom scored over 10 points specifically in my AT&T/Congressional linked analysis specifcially. Others such as Watney above rank highly due to their Aronimink form.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
No comments:
Post a Comment