The AT&T National returns to Congressional's Blue Course for the first time since 2009 this year and is a changed venue since then. Extended for the 2011 US Open to 7574 yards and with a change of greens from Poa Annua to Bentgrass, this course has more teeth than it did in 2009. This year's event is a par 70 again, with the 6th hole reverting back to its previous par 4 status (it was a par 5 in the US Open last year). Total yardage on this tight, tree-lined track is 7250 for this year's event.
A glance at the leaderboard for last year's US Open made one thing clear: In spite of typically penal graduated US Open rough and tree lined fairways, you have to be able to hit the golf ball a long way to prosper.
As usual, my form guide is shown below. I rank based upon an average finishing position for a player's last 3 events. It is perhaps surprising that only Jim Furyk averages under or even close to 10 for his last 3 events. the usual then of the the top 60 or so in the form guide, with some comments regarding those who clearly seem to be much higher in the betting than their form suggests.
Greg Owen - Bookies rank: 47th (100/1). My system rank: 41st. My form rank: 3rd
My system likes Greg Owen more than the bookies' systems do it seems here. The reason for that is that Owen is playing some really solid golf of late. Owen is in the top 37 on tour for driving distance, accuracy, GIR and putts per round according to my recent form ratings. With 6 top 31 finishes in 8 events, it is clear Owen is swinging the golf club well. The problem with Owen is the frequency with which he ruins his week with a bad round. He finished 9th last time out, and for the four form stats above was 20th, 21st, 5th and 36th respectively. But, his 3rd round ruined the charge. I expect him to go quite well here, but would be surprised were he to place. If Owen keeps playing like this, then the week he puts four rounds together could be the week he shocks the whole field.
Rory Sabbatini - Bookies rank: 23rd (80/1). My system rank :21st. .My form rank: 5th
Finally waking from an extended slump this season and is starting to threaten leaderboards again. A useful 30th here n the US Open last year, a dialled in Sabbatini can scramble better than most when in contention. Sabatini was 12th in greens his in the 2011 Open, so can clearly use his draw to his advantage around this course and keep the ball in play. Sabbatini will need to improve his driving this week to contend I feel, with only average driving distance and accuracy stats in recent events. His putter is warming up nicely though and he has been 12th for total putts in the last 2 events. 80/1 is too tight for me to advise a play here.
Blake Adams - Bookies rank: 30th (90/1). My system rank :48th. .My form rank: 7th
Although Adams is in decent nick in recent events, it is noteworthy that he only just sits inside the top 100 in the fedex cup standings. Many times in recent events he has featured high, only to fall away near the end. Adams has been in the top 15 at halfway 4 times in the last 6 events but has only a single top 15 finish to show for his efforts in that time (12th, Players). Adams is a good driver. Very straight off the tee and OK if not spectacular for distance, he gets a more consistent look at the green than most. 80th last time out for greens bucks a recent trend though and I am concerned by how this aspect of his game fell away over the weekend at the Travelers. Before then, Adams was 8th, 42nd and 17th in greens hit, which is a valuable commodity at Congressional (McIlroy hit 86% of greens in 2011, with 79% a distant 2nd). I would be surprised to see Adams in the mix this week.
John Merrick - Bookies rank 62nd (150/1). My system rank: 37th. My form rank: 17th
Merrick is interesting, because the bookies have entirely dismissed him and that is overly dismissive. It was only 2 events ago that Merrick finished 2nd at the Fedex St Jude Classic. Merrick MDF at the Travelers, but do not dismiss his performance entirely as he shot the 4th best round of the day in round 2, but was let down by a poor effort in rounds 1 and 3. Merrick is in the top 20 of my Par 4 birdie or better stats and has decent tournament form too, finishing 15 and 16th last two years, with a 27th at Congressional in 2008 also. Merrick's putting is not generally his strongest suit, but he has been driving and hitting his irons pretty well of late. Although I believe the bookies have Merrick's price wrong, there are a couple of factors which would stop me believing he gets it done here. First, in my last 12 recorded events for Merrick on courses using bentgrass putting surfaces, Merrick has not been better than 30th. Second, Merrick's scrambling is not good enough to get it done here. I have to swerve him.
I will talk about Ryan Palmer a little more in my main preview, but he leads the form guide here ahead of Furyk, both of whom are then a long way ahead of the rest for consistency. There is a lot to like about the chances of both this week, as they are continually threatening to place and win. They are very close to my team for the week and I will finalise selections later.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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