Stealing precious minutes again in writing this preview, hence tips only.
Outright selections
1pt EW Branden Grace at 35/1 (Paddy Power)
1pt EW Marc Warren at 150/1 (Coral)
0.5pt EW Garth Mulroy at 150/1 (Various)
0.5pts EW Felipe Aguilar at 175/1 (Various)
1pt win Paul Lawrie at 25/1 (Various)
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Proofing to Secret Betting Club since January 12th 2012
Wednesday, 27 June 2012
Tuesday, 26 June 2012
Golf tips - AT&T National outright selections
Outright selections
1.5pts EW Dustin Johnson at 16/1 (various)
1pt EW Jeff OVerton at 66/1 (Coral)
1pt EW Marc Leishman at 70/1 (various)
1pt EW Robert Garrigus at 66/1 (Ladbrokes)
AT&T National Tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-at-national-tournament-form.html
AT&T National Player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.nl/2012/06/golf-tips-at-national-player-form-guide.html
Course considerations
Backers need to be cautious in looking looking too hard at recent form guides for this event. First, the history of the event only dates back to 2007, meaning it is hard to derive any players with irresistible tournament form. In addition to this, we are back at Congressional this week for the first time since 2009. Therefore, our only true barometer of tournament and course affinity can be derived between 2007 and 2009.
Finally, this course is not the same as that used in 2009. After Tiger won here in 2009, the course was prepared for the 2011 U.S. Open that was won by Rory McIlroy, who rewrote 16 records on his way to victory.
Arguably the most significant change ahead of the U.S. Open was the change of all greens from Poa Annua to Bentgrass, which at least in theory made the Open more open in the literal sense of the word. Holes have also been extended and tee positions adjusted. However, the layout has reverted to a par 70 having played as a par 71 last year. The 6th hole is again a par 4 this year, so the basic brief on the course is similar from tee to green to previous AT&T Nationals here.
In winning last year, McIlroy destroyed the field in 2 headline categories in my view. First, he hit a staggering 86% of greens, a full 7% more than anybody else. Secondly, he dominated the par 4s. McIlroy led the field for most birdies with 19, 13 of which were on par 4s. On a course with 12 par 4s, 1 of the par 5s playing over 600 yards and extremely difficult par 3s, that fits the bill here. His 1 birdie on the par 3s came in round 4 and was truly exquisite.....OK, enough reverie and on with finding the winner.
Another feature of the course is the graduated rough, which is relatively lenient on those erring slightly, but brutal to those wild off the tee. Recent US Opens have displayed this trait and long hitters rather than straight hitters have dominated near the head of the leaderboard in most years (this year is an exception). A look at last year's leaderboard shows the likes of McIlroy, Day and Garrigus at the head of the field. All are long and all are much happier when there is a little more room off the tee.
In addition to graduated rough, the fairways are tree-lined here. Whilst being long is a desired attribute, players must display control in their aggression too.
As shown in my tournament form guide, players such as Glover, Choi, Furyk, Mahan and Woods all performed strongly at this tournament/course between 2007 and 2009. However, all bar Woods (did not play) failed to really impress from that group last year.
The only other guide we have is the Booz Allen Classic, played here in 2005. Garcia won that event, with a strong Australian contingent among those following him home.
My photo fit player this week is one whose total driving is strong, but with bias towards being a longer hitter more than a straight one. An ability to hit high controlled approaches also will be rewarded here on hard to hit greens - the soft conditions of 2011 which made holding the green so much easier are gone. Finally, scrambling will be key for those missing greens. Not missing many greens is the headline stat for me this week though. Finally, I want good players of par 4s in particular, with putting a nice to have, particularly if you can hole out regularly when missing the green and chipping up. Expect this week to be more of a US Open test than it was when the actual US Open was held here last year. Congressional has a point to prove.
My selections
Tiger Woods heads the betting here and that is undoubtedly correct. A winner at Memorial for his 2nd tour success of the year, writers were scrabbling to proclaim the Messiah had returned when he sat T1 at halfway in the US Open. However, Woods really fell away, finally finishing 21st. I do not really subscribe to the theory that he is now PGA Tour ready but not yet major ready. I question whether anybody is more ready than Woods in World golf, despite recent problems. houThere is no such thing as a major ready golfer out there, which is why we keep getting different winners.
My doubt about Tiger is actually the way he copes and the way his swing is standing up to scrutiny when conditions are at their toughest for him. Woods looked ill at ease on the tight fairways of Sawgrass and never got anywhere near the leaders. His biggest problem at the US Open last time out was the first 6 holes. Of course, they are arguably the toughest opening 6 holes on World Golf. However, on both days his game imploded and he will be tested again here. I believe Woods is still trying to find ultimate confidence in his game. Woods started round 3 of the Open with a definite strategy to not play driver from the tee. However, after a bad start, out it came again. There is something not right enough to be able to leave narrowing quotes 11/2 and lower alone.
Mahan and Furyk are so very close to making my team, but I can't have either of them at the prices. both have great course form here when the AT&T was held between 2007-2009 and as per my tournament form guide. However, both missed the cut on the softer and theoretically benign course last year. I accept the possibility that come late Sunday, I am left cursing the fact I didn't get these guys onside, but I will still be maintaining that as a value shot, I was right to leave them. Despite Furyk's great form, I just think he will fall short in a similar way to the Players - played well, finished 25th.
Dustin Johnson really showed up at the Fedex St Jude and genuinely surprised me by winning in his 2nd start back from injury. I am struggling with the missed cut at the US Open, but not enough to omit him here. the reason I am not put off enough is that Olympic Club is about as bad as it gets for Johnson. Tight, demanding accuracy very much over distance and hugely punishing for those errant, Johnson was never going to have it his own way. As it was, he only missed the cut by a stroke. Had he made the cut and finished OK, we might have seen him at 12s here. Johnson finished 23rd here last year in the US Open, but only after a pretty dreadful start. That was a pretty impressive first showing at the course. In his win at the St Jude, Johnson was 30th in driving distance (expected) and 33 rd in accuracy (noteworthy), with 4th in greens and 40th in putts per round completing a really consistent week leading to an impressive victory. I also like the fact that in finishing 6th at the Memorial, Johnson was 6th for putts on the Bentgrass greens there. In short, the elements are there for Johnson and he could really go to town on this course, if he gets himself set early.
Jeff Overton is next in my squad. After the galling loss that Brian Davis suffered, I am hesitant about putting another multi-event bridesmaid in to my team here. However, Overton played Aronimink last two years in this event, finishing 3rd both times. Prior to that, he was 9th at Congressional. Although only 13th and 38th in his last two events, Overton had 3 good rounds out of 4 in each and so clearly is close to a contending performance. Overton is putting well and driving well too. The question is whether he can dial in well enough with his irons to contend. At 33rd in scrambling, 34th in bogey avoidance and 54th in par 4 scoring, I think 66/1 is enough for me to find out this week.
I am really struggling with the concept af adding further players here, to be honest. Ryan Palmer headed up my recent form guide, with 3 very strong top 10 finishes in his last 3 events. The bookies have him as an ever narrowing 6th favourite at time of writing, versus 4th in my system ranks. Long off the tee and strong in par 4 performance and bentgrass positive both generally and of late, Palmer makes a lot of sense. My concern is that his driving accuracy stats are borderline acceptable here. Whilst certainly long enough, I am not sure a record of not being in the top 50 for driving accuracy in your last 20 events is good enough. Also, 73 and 91st in greens hit in the last two regulation events fails to inspire. I am going out on a limb here and bucking the massive gamble by anybody and everybody - Ryan Palmer will not win this week. The other indicator that makes me believe that to be the case is that his last starts have yielded a 4th, 9th, 5th and 3rd......................and 85th at the Players. That is the one I most wanted to see some performance at as an indicator that he can cope with the challenge from tee to green here.
So, I am genuinely now struggling to add players that give balance to the selections and represent value. How about somebody who was 25th last time out here in 2009 and 7th the following year at Aronimink. The same player is a very useful 48th in distacne and 43 in accuracy off the tee in my recent form ranks, with 52nd for greens and 42nd for putting also. He won last time out and ranks 20th on tour for bentgrass performance in the last 2 years. Marc Leishman is worth another go here. My system has him 6th here, versus 20th or so in the eyes of the layers. 70/1 is actually a nice price as long as he retains focus after his new found fame. I am going to chance it, especially given that nagging stat I have about the prominence of Australian players in the Booz Allen Classic of 2005.
My last pick is Robert Garrigus. I will flesh out the details later
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
1.5pts EW Dustin Johnson at 16/1 (various)
1pt EW Jeff OVerton at 66/1 (Coral)
1pt EW Marc Leishman at 70/1 (various)
1pt EW Robert Garrigus at 66/1 (Ladbrokes)
AT&T National Tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-at-national-tournament-form.html
AT&T National Player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.nl/2012/06/golf-tips-at-national-player-form-guide.html
Course considerations
Backers need to be cautious in looking looking too hard at recent form guides for this event. First, the history of the event only dates back to 2007, meaning it is hard to derive any players with irresistible tournament form. In addition to this, we are back at Congressional this week for the first time since 2009. Therefore, our only true barometer of tournament and course affinity can be derived between 2007 and 2009.
Finally, this course is not the same as that used in 2009. After Tiger won here in 2009, the course was prepared for the 2011 U.S. Open that was won by Rory McIlroy, who rewrote 16 records on his way to victory.
Arguably the most significant change ahead of the U.S. Open was the change of all greens from Poa Annua to Bentgrass, which at least in theory made the Open more open in the literal sense of the word. Holes have also been extended and tee positions adjusted. However, the layout has reverted to a par 70 having played as a par 71 last year. The 6th hole is again a par 4 this year, so the basic brief on the course is similar from tee to green to previous AT&T Nationals here.
In winning last year, McIlroy destroyed the field in 2 headline categories in my view. First, he hit a staggering 86% of greens, a full 7% more than anybody else. Secondly, he dominated the par 4s. McIlroy led the field for most birdies with 19, 13 of which were on par 4s. On a course with 12 par 4s, 1 of the par 5s playing over 600 yards and extremely difficult par 3s, that fits the bill here. His 1 birdie on the par 3s came in round 4 and was truly exquisite.....OK, enough reverie and on with finding the winner.
Another feature of the course is the graduated rough, which is relatively lenient on those erring slightly, but brutal to those wild off the tee. Recent US Opens have displayed this trait and long hitters rather than straight hitters have dominated near the head of the leaderboard in most years (this year is an exception). A look at last year's leaderboard shows the likes of McIlroy, Day and Garrigus at the head of the field. All are long and all are much happier when there is a little more room off the tee.
In addition to graduated rough, the fairways are tree-lined here. Whilst being long is a desired attribute, players must display control in their aggression too.
As shown in my tournament form guide, players such as Glover, Choi, Furyk, Mahan and Woods all performed strongly at this tournament/course between 2007 and 2009. However, all bar Woods (did not play) failed to really impress from that group last year.
The only other guide we have is the Booz Allen Classic, played here in 2005. Garcia won that event, with a strong Australian contingent among those following him home.
My photo fit player this week is one whose total driving is strong, but with bias towards being a longer hitter more than a straight one. An ability to hit high controlled approaches also will be rewarded here on hard to hit greens - the soft conditions of 2011 which made holding the green so much easier are gone. Finally, scrambling will be key for those missing greens. Not missing many greens is the headline stat for me this week though. Finally, I want good players of par 4s in particular, with putting a nice to have, particularly if you can hole out regularly when missing the green and chipping up. Expect this week to be more of a US Open test than it was when the actual US Open was held here last year. Congressional has a point to prove.
My selections
Tiger Woods heads the betting here and that is undoubtedly correct. A winner at Memorial for his 2nd tour success of the year, writers were scrabbling to proclaim the Messiah had returned when he sat T1 at halfway in the US Open. However, Woods really fell away, finally finishing 21st. I do not really subscribe to the theory that he is now PGA Tour ready but not yet major ready. I question whether anybody is more ready than Woods in World golf, despite recent problems. houThere is no such thing as a major ready golfer out there, which is why we keep getting different winners.
My doubt about Tiger is actually the way he copes and the way his swing is standing up to scrutiny when conditions are at their toughest for him. Woods looked ill at ease on the tight fairways of Sawgrass and never got anywhere near the leaders. His biggest problem at the US Open last time out was the first 6 holes. Of course, they are arguably the toughest opening 6 holes on World Golf. However, on both days his game imploded and he will be tested again here. I believe Woods is still trying to find ultimate confidence in his game. Woods started round 3 of the Open with a definite strategy to not play driver from the tee. However, after a bad start, out it came again. There is something not right enough to be able to leave narrowing quotes 11/2 and lower alone.
Mahan and Furyk are so very close to making my team, but I can't have either of them at the prices. both have great course form here when the AT&T was held between 2007-2009 and as per my tournament form guide. However, both missed the cut on the softer and theoretically benign course last year. I accept the possibility that come late Sunday, I am left cursing the fact I didn't get these guys onside, but I will still be maintaining that as a value shot, I was right to leave them. Despite Furyk's great form, I just think he will fall short in a similar way to the Players - played well, finished 25th.
Dustin Johnson really showed up at the Fedex St Jude and genuinely surprised me by winning in his 2nd start back from injury. I am struggling with the missed cut at the US Open, but not enough to omit him here. the reason I am not put off enough is that Olympic Club is about as bad as it gets for Johnson. Tight, demanding accuracy very much over distance and hugely punishing for those errant, Johnson was never going to have it his own way. As it was, he only missed the cut by a stroke. Had he made the cut and finished OK, we might have seen him at 12s here. Johnson finished 23rd here last year in the US Open, but only after a pretty dreadful start. That was a pretty impressive first showing at the course. In his win at the St Jude, Johnson was 30th in driving distance (expected) and 33 rd in accuracy (noteworthy), with 4th in greens and 40th in putts per round completing a really consistent week leading to an impressive victory. I also like the fact that in finishing 6th at the Memorial, Johnson was 6th for putts on the Bentgrass greens there. In short, the elements are there for Johnson and he could really go to town on this course, if he gets himself set early.
Jeff Overton is next in my squad. After the galling loss that Brian Davis suffered, I am hesitant about putting another multi-event bridesmaid in to my team here. However, Overton played Aronimink last two years in this event, finishing 3rd both times. Prior to that, he was 9th at Congressional. Although only 13th and 38th in his last two events, Overton had 3 good rounds out of 4 in each and so clearly is close to a contending performance. Overton is putting well and driving well too. The question is whether he can dial in well enough with his irons to contend. At 33rd in scrambling, 34th in bogey avoidance and 54th in par 4 scoring, I think 66/1 is enough for me to find out this week.
I am really struggling with the concept af adding further players here, to be honest. Ryan Palmer headed up my recent form guide, with 3 very strong top 10 finishes in his last 3 events. The bookies have him as an ever narrowing 6th favourite at time of writing, versus 4th in my system ranks. Long off the tee and strong in par 4 performance and bentgrass positive both generally and of late, Palmer makes a lot of sense. My concern is that his driving accuracy stats are borderline acceptable here. Whilst certainly long enough, I am not sure a record of not being in the top 50 for driving accuracy in your last 20 events is good enough. Also, 73 and 91st in greens hit in the last two regulation events fails to inspire. I am going out on a limb here and bucking the massive gamble by anybody and everybody - Ryan Palmer will not win this week. The other indicator that makes me believe that to be the case is that his last starts have yielded a 4th, 9th, 5th and 3rd......................and 85th at the Players. That is the one I most wanted to see some performance at as an indicator that he can cope with the challenge from tee to green here.
So, I am genuinely now struggling to add players that give balance to the selections and represent value. How about somebody who was 25th last time out here in 2009 and 7th the following year at Aronimink. The same player is a very useful 48th in distacne and 43 in accuracy off the tee in my recent form ranks, with 52nd for greens and 42nd for putting also. He won last time out and ranks 20th on tour for bentgrass performance in the last 2 years. Marc Leishman is worth another go here. My system has him 6th here, versus 20th or so in the eyes of the layers. 70/1 is actually a nice price as long as he retains focus after his new found fame. I am going to chance it, especially given that nagging stat I have about the prominence of Australian players in the Booz Allen Classic of 2005.
My last pick is Robert Garrigus. I will flesh out the details later
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Golf Tips - AT&T National Player Form Guide
AT&T National Tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-at-national-tournament-form.html
The AT&T National returns to Congressional's Blue Course for the first time since 2009 this year and is a changed venue since then. Extended for the 2011 US Open to 7574 yards and with a change of greens from Poa Annua to Bentgrass, this course has more teeth than it did in 2009. This year's event is a par 70 again, with the 6th hole reverting back to its previous par 4 status (it was a par 5 in the US Open last year). Total yardage on this tight, tree-lined track is 7250 for this year's event.
A glance at the leaderboard for last year's US Open made one thing clear: In spite of typically penal graduated US Open rough and tree lined fairways, you have to be able to hit the golf ball a long way to prosper.
As usual, my form guide is shown below. I rank based upon an average finishing position for a player's last 3 events. It is perhaps surprising that only Jim Furyk averages under or even close to 10 for his last 3 events. the usual then of the the top 60 or so in the form guide, with some comments regarding those who clearly seem to be much higher in the betting than their form suggests.
Greg Owen - Bookies rank: 47th (100/1). My system rank: 41st. My form rank: 3rd
My system likes Greg Owen more than the bookies' systems do it seems here. The reason for that is that Owen is playing some really solid golf of late. Owen is in the top 37 on tour for driving distance, accuracy, GIR and putts per round according to my recent form ratings. With 6 top 31 finishes in 8 events, it is clear Owen is swinging the golf club well. The problem with Owen is the frequency with which he ruins his week with a bad round. He finished 9th last time out, and for the four form stats above was 20th, 21st, 5th and 36th respectively. But, his 3rd round ruined the charge. I expect him to go quite well here, but would be surprised were he to place. If Owen keeps playing like this, then the week he puts four rounds together could be the week he shocks the whole field.
Rory Sabbatini - Bookies rank: 23rd (80/1). My system rank :21st. .My form rank: 5th
Finally waking from an extended slump this season and is starting to threaten leaderboards again. A useful 30th here n the US Open last year, a dialled in Sabbatini can scramble better than most when in contention. Sabatini was 12th in greens his in the 2011 Open, so can clearly use his draw to his advantage around this course and keep the ball in play. Sabbatini will need to improve his driving this week to contend I feel, with only average driving distance and accuracy stats in recent events. His putter is warming up nicely though and he has been 12th for total putts in the last 2 events. 80/1 is too tight for me to advise a play here.
Blake Adams - Bookies rank: 30th (90/1). My system rank :48th. .My form rank: 7th
Although Adams is in decent nick in recent events, it is noteworthy that he only just sits inside the top 100 in the fedex cup standings. Many times in recent events he has featured high, only to fall away near the end. Adams has been in the top 15 at halfway 4 times in the last 6 events but has only a single top 15 finish to show for his efforts in that time (12th, Players). Adams is a good driver. Very straight off the tee and OK if not spectacular for distance, he gets a more consistent look at the green than most. 80th last time out for greens bucks a recent trend though and I am concerned by how this aspect of his game fell away over the weekend at the Travelers. Before then, Adams was 8th, 42nd and 17th in greens hit, which is a valuable commodity at Congressional (McIlroy hit 86% of greens in 2011, with 79% a distant 2nd). I would be surprised to see Adams in the mix this week.
John Merrick - Bookies rank 62nd (150/1). My system rank: 37th. My form rank: 17th
Merrick is interesting, because the bookies have entirely dismissed him and that is overly dismissive. It was only 2 events ago that Merrick finished 2nd at the Fedex St Jude Classic. Merrick MDF at the Travelers, but do not dismiss his performance entirely as he shot the 4th best round of the day in round 2, but was let down by a poor effort in rounds 1 and 3. Merrick is in the top 20 of my Par 4 birdie or better stats and has decent tournament form too, finishing 15 and 16th last two years, with a 27th at Congressional in 2008 also. Merrick's putting is not generally his strongest suit, but he has been driving and hitting his irons pretty well of late. Although I believe the bookies have Merrick's price wrong, there are a couple of factors which would stop me believing he gets it done here. First, in my last 12 recorded events for Merrick on courses using bentgrass putting surfaces, Merrick has not been better than 30th. Second, Merrick's scrambling is not good enough to get it done here. I have to swerve him.
I will talk about Ryan Palmer a little more in my main preview, but he leads the form guide here ahead of Furyk, both of whom are then a long way ahead of the rest for consistency. There is a lot to like about the chances of both this week, as they are continually threatening to place and win. They are very close to my team for the week and I will finalise selections later.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
The AT&T National returns to Congressional's Blue Course for the first time since 2009 this year and is a changed venue since then. Extended for the 2011 US Open to 7574 yards and with a change of greens from Poa Annua to Bentgrass, this course has more teeth than it did in 2009. This year's event is a par 70 again, with the 6th hole reverting back to its previous par 4 status (it was a par 5 in the US Open last year). Total yardage on this tight, tree-lined track is 7250 for this year's event.
A glance at the leaderboard for last year's US Open made one thing clear: In spite of typically penal graduated US Open rough and tree lined fairways, you have to be able to hit the golf ball a long way to prosper.
As usual, my form guide is shown below. I rank based upon an average finishing position for a player's last 3 events. It is perhaps surprising that only Jim Furyk averages under or even close to 10 for his last 3 events. the usual then of the the top 60 or so in the form guide, with some comments regarding those who clearly seem to be much higher in the betting than their form suggests.
Greg Owen - Bookies rank: 47th (100/1). My system rank: 41st. My form rank: 3rd
My system likes Greg Owen more than the bookies' systems do it seems here. The reason for that is that Owen is playing some really solid golf of late. Owen is in the top 37 on tour for driving distance, accuracy, GIR and putts per round according to my recent form ratings. With 6 top 31 finishes in 8 events, it is clear Owen is swinging the golf club well. The problem with Owen is the frequency with which he ruins his week with a bad round. He finished 9th last time out, and for the four form stats above was 20th, 21st, 5th and 36th respectively. But, his 3rd round ruined the charge. I expect him to go quite well here, but would be surprised were he to place. If Owen keeps playing like this, then the week he puts four rounds together could be the week he shocks the whole field.
Rory Sabbatini - Bookies rank: 23rd (80/1). My system rank :21st. .My form rank: 5th
Finally waking from an extended slump this season and is starting to threaten leaderboards again. A useful 30th here n the US Open last year, a dialled in Sabbatini can scramble better than most when in contention. Sabatini was 12th in greens his in the 2011 Open, so can clearly use his draw to his advantage around this course and keep the ball in play. Sabbatini will need to improve his driving this week to contend I feel, with only average driving distance and accuracy stats in recent events. His putter is warming up nicely though and he has been 12th for total putts in the last 2 events. 80/1 is too tight for me to advise a play here.
Blake Adams - Bookies rank: 30th (90/1). My system rank :48th. .My form rank: 7th
Although Adams is in decent nick in recent events, it is noteworthy that he only just sits inside the top 100 in the fedex cup standings. Many times in recent events he has featured high, only to fall away near the end. Adams has been in the top 15 at halfway 4 times in the last 6 events but has only a single top 15 finish to show for his efforts in that time (12th, Players). Adams is a good driver. Very straight off the tee and OK if not spectacular for distance, he gets a more consistent look at the green than most. 80th last time out for greens bucks a recent trend though and I am concerned by how this aspect of his game fell away over the weekend at the Travelers. Before then, Adams was 8th, 42nd and 17th in greens hit, which is a valuable commodity at Congressional (McIlroy hit 86% of greens in 2011, with 79% a distant 2nd). I would be surprised to see Adams in the mix this week.
John Merrick - Bookies rank 62nd (150/1). My system rank: 37th. My form rank: 17th
Merrick is interesting, because the bookies have entirely dismissed him and that is overly dismissive. It was only 2 events ago that Merrick finished 2nd at the Fedex St Jude Classic. Merrick MDF at the Travelers, but do not dismiss his performance entirely as he shot the 4th best round of the day in round 2, but was let down by a poor effort in rounds 1 and 3. Merrick is in the top 20 of my Par 4 birdie or better stats and has decent tournament form too, finishing 15 and 16th last two years, with a 27th at Congressional in 2008 also. Merrick's putting is not generally his strongest suit, but he has been driving and hitting his irons pretty well of late. Although I believe the bookies have Merrick's price wrong, there are a couple of factors which would stop me believing he gets it done here. First, in my last 12 recorded events for Merrick on courses using bentgrass putting surfaces, Merrick has not been better than 30th. Second, Merrick's scrambling is not good enough to get it done here. I have to swerve him.
I will talk about Ryan Palmer a little more in my main preview, but he leads the form guide here ahead of Furyk, both of whom are then a long way ahead of the rest for consistency. There is a lot to like about the chances of both this week, as they are continually threatening to place and win. They are very close to my team for the week and I will finalise selections later.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Sunday, 24 June 2012
Golf Tips - AT&T National Tournament form guide
AT&T National Player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.nl/2012/06/golf-tips-at-national-player-form-guide.html
Hi all
As usual, my Tournament form analysis below.
The AT&T National has only been in existence since 2007, so a limited study versus my usual analysis back to 2001 for PGA tour events. Scoring as follows then:
- Tournament experience, with a maximum 6 points if a player has played 4 or more times
- Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
- Tournament form in 2011, 2010 and 2009, with up to 4 points available for each year.
- Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use. Congressional was used between 2007 and 2009, with Aronimink used in the last two years. We return to Congressional this year, so 2007-09 form takes added importance in this analysis and for our course form guide.
As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. Also note that I am putting this analysis up very early; all alternates are in my list (if they have played the event before) and not all players listed will make the field.
So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results (with further comments below):
Top of my tournament ranks is KJ Choi. Was 2nd here last year at Aronimink but won at this course in 2007. Finally rounding in to some form after a pretty torrid season, Congressional comes at a good time for Choi and at a time for us also potentially. No odds out yet, but look for something above the 50s mark as being a pretty interesting price. 15th last time in the US Open and 19th at the Mermorial tells us that Choi is getting close again. My main doubt is that the greens have changed since his win in 2007 in preapration for the US Open last year, at which Choi missed the cut.
Lucas Glover ties Choi on tournament form in my ranks. 3 top 25s in 4 attempts and his best two finishes on this course; 12th in 2007 and 5th in 2009. 42nd in the US Open here last year. At time of writing, Glover is heading for a midfield finish in the Travelers and his form has been pretty abject this year. Glover could be a sneaky top 20 bet for next week, although I need a little more convincing right now.
Bryce Molder is in a pretty horrible run of form right now. 64th at the Travelers and 3 MC in 5 events before today proves that. Last year's 6th at the Travelers started a run of 6 top 11 finishes in 11 results to the season's end so perhaps better times are ahead. 8th ,25th and 4th in the last 3 years at this event - the 4th being on this course - Molder will have positive memories ahead of next week. Molder did not make the US Open field last year at Congressional. A big leap of faith that all comes together in time for next week, despite course and tournament form positives.
Fresh from his best ever round, a 61 in round 4 of the Travelers to vault up the leaderbaord, Hunter Mahan has a strong record at the AT&T, which gets even better when you look at Congressional form. 30th last year at Aronimink but 8th/12th/2nd in the three years 2007-2009 at Congressional means that Mahan is a serious consideration this week. Mahan MC at last year's US Open here and has a form record on tour of 37th, 19th, 38th, 11th which is solid only coming in to next week's event. However, anything over 25/1 deserves serious thought.
Tiger is 5th in my ranks here, but was 6th in 2007 and 1st in 2009, both at Congressional. A near certainty to go off as a single figures favourite, Tiger will likely see this as another course he has fond past memories of and one he can win on. Woods edged Mahan by a shot in winning in 2009. It is likely that Mahan is triple Woods' price. I prefer the value play on Mahan of the two, especially with the questions that remain after Woods' US Open weekend.
Jim Furyk will no doubt have been hurting after losing the US Open. That he played well and that he is in a great run of consistent form should not be overlooked, however. If we ignore average finishes at Aronimink last 2 years and focus on his Congressional form prior to that, we see a run of 3rd, 3rd and 7th from 2007-2009. Furyk now has 9 straight top 26 finishes, 7 of which are top 13s. He is striking the ball superbly, which is sure to be a highly desired commodity again this year at AT&T. MC at last year's US Open dampens ardour for Furyk plus question marks over his ability to bounce back after the US Open. However, he has to be considered.
Other Congressional/AT&T combined notables:
- Pampling. 19th, 3rd, 20th between 2007 and 2009. 7th also in the Booz Allen classic here in 2005.
- Allenby. 6th 2007 and 3rd 2008. 13th in the Booz Allen.
- O'Hern. 3rd 2008 and 25th 2009.
- Perez. 3rd 2007 and 12th 2008.
Other notables include Moore, Overton, Howell III, Marino, Singh, Beckman, Van Pelt and Garrigus, all of whom scored over 10 points specifically in my AT&T/Congressional linked analysis specifcially. Others such as Watney above rank highly due to their Aronimink form.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Fresh from his best ever round, a 61 in round 4 of the Travelers to vault up the leaderbaord, Hunter Mahan has a strong record at the AT&T, which gets even better when you look at Congressional form. 30th last year at Aronimink but 8th/12th/2nd in the three years 2007-2009 at Congressional means that Mahan is a serious consideration this week. Mahan MC at last year's US Open here and has a form record on tour of 37th, 19th, 38th, 11th which is solid only coming in to next week's event. However, anything over 25/1 deserves serious thought.
Tiger is 5th in my ranks here, but was 6th in 2007 and 1st in 2009, both at Congressional. A near certainty to go off as a single figures favourite, Tiger will likely see this as another course he has fond past memories of and one he can win on. Woods edged Mahan by a shot in winning in 2009. It is likely that Mahan is triple Woods' price. I prefer the value play on Mahan of the two, especially with the questions that remain after Woods' US Open weekend.
Jim Furyk will no doubt have been hurting after losing the US Open. That he played well and that he is in a great run of consistent form should not be overlooked, however. If we ignore average finishes at Aronimink last 2 years and focus on his Congressional form prior to that, we see a run of 3rd, 3rd and 7th from 2007-2009. Furyk now has 9 straight top 26 finishes, 7 of which are top 13s. He is striking the ball superbly, which is sure to be a highly desired commodity again this year at AT&T. MC at last year's US Open dampens ardour for Furyk plus question marks over his ability to bounce back after the US Open. However, he has to be considered.
Other Congressional/AT&T combined notables:
- Pampling. 19th, 3rd, 20th between 2007 and 2009. 7th also in the Booz Allen classic here in 2005.
- Allenby. 6th 2007 and 3rd 2008. 13th in the Booz Allen.
- O'Hern. 3rd 2008 and 25th 2009.
- Perez. 3rd 2007 and 12th 2008.
Other notables include Moore, Overton, Howell III, Marino, Singh, Beckman, Van Pelt and Garrigus, all of whom scored over 10 points specifically in my AT&T/Congressional linked analysis specifcially. Others such as Watney above rank highly due to their Aronimink form.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Friday, 22 June 2012
OneBet Racing Selections - 23rd June Ascot Day 5
23rd June
Ascot Day 5
14.30 Move to Strike 13/8 - 2pt Win -2PTS, Cruck Realta 25/1 0.5PTS ew Placed @40/1 BOG +5PTS
15.05 Memphis Tennessee 6/1 - 2pt Win, OneBet Longshot - Calico Cat 50/1 0.5Pts ew
15.45 Black Caviar - To Win by 5 lengths or more 3/1 - 3pt Win LOST -3PTS
16.25 Medicean Man 14/1 1.5 Pts ew, Gordon Lord Byron 20/1 1pt ew -5PTS
17.00 Camborne 7/1 - 2pt Win WON +14PTS, Anatolian 12/1 1pt ew -2PTS
17.35 Simenon 4/1 - 2pt Win WON +8PTS, American Trilogy 14/1 pt ew -2PTS
Meeting Total:+7PTS
Thursday, 21 June 2012
OneBet Racing Selections - Ascot Day 4
22nd June
Ascot Day 4
14.30 New Fangled 9/4 - 2pt Win WON +4.5PTS, Amazonas 20/1 1pt ew -2PTS
15.05 Astrology 5/4 NAP - 4PT Win -4PTS
15.45 Samitar 5/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.25 Gatewood 7/2 - 2pt Win - WON +7PTS OneBet Longshot - Hyper 28/1 0.5Pts ew -1PT
17.00 Athens 9/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
17.35 Primaeval 11/1 1pt ew, Imperial Djay 20/1 -1pt ew -4PTS
Meeting Total:-3.5PTS
Ascot Day 4
14.30 New Fangled 9/4 - 2pt Win WON +4.5PTS, Amazonas 20/1 1pt ew -2PTS
15.05 Astrology 5/4 NAP - 4PT Win -4PTS
15.45 Samitar 5/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.25 Gatewood 7/2 - 2pt Win - WON +7PTS OneBet Longshot - Hyper 28/1 0.5Pts ew -1PT
17.00 Athens 9/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
17.35 Primaeval 11/1 1pt ew, Imperial Djay 20/1 -1pt ew -4PTS
Meeting Total:-3.5PTS
OneBet Racing Selections - Ascot Day 3
21st June
Ascot
14.30 Cay Verde 3/1 - 3pt Win LOST - 3PTS
15.05 Princess Highway 13/2 - WON@17/2 +8.5 PTS , 1pt Win Momentary 10/1 - 1pt ew -2 PTS
15.45 Fame & Glory NAP - EVE 4pt Win -4PTS
16.25 Fast or Free 8/1 - 1pt Win, WON + 8PTS Compton 50/1 - 1pt ew placed +12.5PTS
17.00 Grandeur 13/2 - 1pt ew -2PTS
17.35 Anomaly 9/1 - 1pt Win, OneBet Longshot - Rocktherunway 25/1 - 1pt ew -3PTS
Meeting Total: +15PTS
Ascot
14.30 Cay Verde 3/1 - 3pt Win LOST - 3PTS
15.05 Princess Highway 13/2 - WON@17/2 +8.5 PTS , 1pt Win Momentary 10/1 - 1pt ew -2 PTS
15.45 Fame & Glory NAP - EVE 4pt Win -4PTS
16.25 Fast or Free 8/1 - 1pt Win, WON + 8PTS Compton 50/1 - 1pt ew placed +12.5PTS
17.00 Grandeur 13/2 - 1pt ew -2PTS
17.35 Anomaly 9/1 - 1pt Win, OneBet Longshot - Rocktherunway 25/1 - 1pt ew -3PTS
Meeting Total: +15PTS
Wednesday, 20 June 2012
Golf tips - BMW International Open Outright Selections
Outeight selections
2pt EW Sergio Garcia at 12/1 (Various)
1pt EW Simon Kham at 150/1 (Various)
1.5pt EW Marcel Siem at 33/1 (Various)
0.5pt EW Lee Slattery at 200/1 (Various)
Hi all, little point in going in to a detailed narrative at this stage, but my selections are above.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
2pt EW Sergio Garcia at 12/1 (Various)
1pt EW Simon Kham at 150/1 (Various)
1.5pt EW Marcel Siem at 33/1 (Various)
0.5pt EW Lee Slattery at 200/1 (Various)
Hi all, little point in going in to a detailed narrative at this stage, but my selections are above.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Golf Tips - Travelers Championship Outright selections
Outright selections
2pt EW Matt Kuchar at 14/1 (Various)
1pt EW Kevin Stadler at 70/1 (Sporting bet)
1pt EW Brian Davis at 70/1 (SkyBet)
3pts Brian Davis to finish in the top 20 at 5/2 (Paddy Power)
Well, it's my own fault I guess. Life has really got in the way this week and I have been unable to post my usual reviews. The price has contracted on a number of players, some of whom are clearly on my radar this week.
Given that we are so close to the off, I will simply share with you the results of my analysis. The following table is my top 20 ranked players this week.
You can see from the attached that I am in accord on the top 3 in the betting as it was on Monday. Webb Simpson I actually think has impeccable credentials for this event, but I can not have him here after the emotionally draining week that has brought his first major win and all of the media commitments since.
In actuality, Hunter Mahan has moved in to joint favouritism for the event in the last 3 days, driven by his excellent course form here (Mahan is 3rd in my ranks for tournament form here). However, I do not like his form enough. A useful 24th in greens from my recent ranks on tour, Mahan's recent putting worries me. I also believe that on this short par 70, his relative lack of accuracy from within 100 yards will see him have a lot to do to make enough birdies this week.
Matt Kuchar maintained his good form last week and avoided the ultimate stress of vying for the win on Sunday, which is a probably a positive here this week. Matt Kuchar has a poor record here, but then he hasn't played here since 2008 - Kuchar is an entirely different player now. I fully expect him to challenge this week and he heads up my staklng plan.
Next I am going to play a man with 9 top 26 finishes in his last 12 events. He is still available at 70/1 despite this stat - it's Kevin Stadler. Stadler is 5th in my rankings, due to a very solid skill set in the areas I believe are key this week. Within the top 50 for both recent putts per round and greens, Stadler can put a poor run here in the past behind him this week and get involved. Stadler is 64th on tour for approaches within 100 yars and sits 22nd in par 4 birdie or better. A really solid fit for the event, despite past inconsistencies. A lack of previous form does not mean you can't win here - Jacobson's win last year followed 2 previous MCs in the event.
Brian Davis is in a similar mould to Stadler in the sense that they are demonstrating week in, week out that they are a threat in regulation tour events. Davis has 6 top 25 finishes in 8 events and this appears yet another event in which he is dismissed a little too readily by the layers. 31st in my tournament form rankings thanks in no small part to 9th last year, Davis has solid recent greens hit and putting stats, and sits in the top 25 for par 4 birdies and also is in the top 25 of my Bentgrass performer ratings in the last 2 years. Davis has a good game fit here and can get involved.
Matt Every would have got my vote here, but I have recently found that he has withdrawn from the event. The above table shows the likes of Gillis and Van Pelt up well also, but I am going to take a play on Brian Davis to be top 20 as my final pick. This move should cover other bets if it lands and I more than happy to bank on another strong week for the Englishman here by taking this cover
Regards
Dave (OneBet).
2pt EW Matt Kuchar at 14/1 (Various)
1pt EW Kevin Stadler at 70/1 (Sporting bet)
1pt EW Brian Davis at 70/1 (SkyBet)
3pts Brian Davis to finish in the top 20 at 5/2 (Paddy Power)
Well, it's my own fault I guess. Life has really got in the way this week and I have been unable to post my usual reviews. The price has contracted on a number of players, some of whom are clearly on my radar this week.
Given that we are so close to the off, I will simply share with you the results of my analysis. The following table is my top 20 ranked players this week.
You can see from the attached that I am in accord on the top 3 in the betting as it was on Monday. Webb Simpson I actually think has impeccable credentials for this event, but I can not have him here after the emotionally draining week that has brought his first major win and all of the media commitments since.
In actuality, Hunter Mahan has moved in to joint favouritism for the event in the last 3 days, driven by his excellent course form here (Mahan is 3rd in my ranks for tournament form here). However, I do not like his form enough. A useful 24th in greens from my recent ranks on tour, Mahan's recent putting worries me. I also believe that on this short par 70, his relative lack of accuracy from within 100 yards will see him have a lot to do to make enough birdies this week.
Matt Kuchar maintained his good form last week and avoided the ultimate stress of vying for the win on Sunday, which is a probably a positive here this week. Matt Kuchar has a poor record here, but then he hasn't played here since 2008 - Kuchar is an entirely different player now. I fully expect him to challenge this week and he heads up my staklng plan.
Next I am going to play a man with 9 top 26 finishes in his last 12 events. He is still available at 70/1 despite this stat - it's Kevin Stadler. Stadler is 5th in my rankings, due to a very solid skill set in the areas I believe are key this week. Within the top 50 for both recent putts per round and greens, Stadler can put a poor run here in the past behind him this week and get involved. Stadler is 64th on tour for approaches within 100 yars and sits 22nd in par 4 birdie or better. A really solid fit for the event, despite past inconsistencies. A lack of previous form does not mean you can't win here - Jacobson's win last year followed 2 previous MCs in the event.
Brian Davis is in a similar mould to Stadler in the sense that they are demonstrating week in, week out that they are a threat in regulation tour events. Davis has 6 top 25 finishes in 8 events and this appears yet another event in which he is dismissed a little too readily by the layers. 31st in my tournament form rankings thanks in no small part to 9th last year, Davis has solid recent greens hit and putting stats, and sits in the top 25 for par 4 birdies and also is in the top 25 of my Bentgrass performer ratings in the last 2 years. Davis has a good game fit here and can get involved.
Matt Every would have got my vote here, but I have recently found that he has withdrawn from the event. The above table shows the likes of Gillis and Van Pelt up well also, but I am going to take a play on Brian Davis to be top 20 as my final pick. This move should cover other bets if it lands and I more than happy to bank on another strong week for the Englishman here by taking this cover
Regards
Dave (OneBet).
Tuesday, 19 June 2012
OneBet Racing Selections - 20th June Ascot Day 2
20th June
Ascot Day 2
14.30 Producer 20/1 - 1pt ew, OneBet Longshot Laffan 66/1 - 0.5Pts ew
15.05 Emulous 3/1 - 2pt Win, Clinical 14/1 - 1p ew
15.45 Planteur 10/1 - 1.5Pts ew, OneBet Longshot - City Style 40/1 0.5Pts ew
16.25 Edinburgh Knight 12/1 - 1pt ew, Boom and Bust 25/1 1pt ew
17.00 Graphic Guest 9/1 1pt ew, Jadanna 12/1 - 1pt ew
17.35 Esentape 11/1 - 1pt ew, Falls of Lora 20/1 1pt ew
Meeting Total:-22PTS
Ascot Day 2
14.30 Producer 20/1 - 1pt ew, OneBet Longshot Laffan 66/1 - 0.5Pts ew
15.05 Emulous 3/1 - 2pt Win, Clinical 14/1 - 1p ew
15.45 Planteur 10/1 - 1.5Pts ew, OneBet Longshot - City Style 40/1 0.5Pts ew
16.25 Edinburgh Knight 12/1 - 1pt ew, Boom and Bust 25/1 1pt ew
17.00 Graphic Guest 9/1 1pt ew, Jadanna 12/1 - 1pt ew
17.35 Esentape 11/1 - 1pt ew, Falls of Lora 20/1 1pt ew
Meeting Total:-22PTS
Monday, 18 June 2012
OneBet Racing Selections - 19th June Ascot Day 1
19th June
Royal Ascot - Day 1
Win Double 3.37/1 - 4pt Win - 4PTS
14.30 Queen Anne Stakes - Frankel 1/6, (OneBet Longshot Red Jazz 80/1 -0.5Pts ew) WON
15.45 St.James Palace Stakes - Power 11/4 LOST
15.05 Bated Breath 5/1 - 2pt Win (OneBet Longshot - Stepper Point 50/1 0.5Pts ew) LOST-3PTS
16.25 Sir Prancealot 4/1 - 2Pt Win LOST-2PTS
17.00 Simenon 7/1 - 2pt Win WON @8/1 +16PTS
17.35 Lyric Ace 4/1 - 2pt Win, -2PTS (OneBet Longshot - Hototo 20/1 0.5Pts ew) +12.5PTS
Meeting Total:+17.5PTS
Royal Ascot - Day 1
Win Double 3.37/1 - 4pt Win - 4PTS
14.30 Queen Anne Stakes - Frankel 1/6, (OneBet Longshot Red Jazz 80/1 -0.5Pts ew) WON
15.45 St.James Palace Stakes - Power 11/4 LOST
15.05 Bated Breath 5/1 - 2pt Win (OneBet Longshot - Stepper Point 50/1 0.5Pts ew) LOST-3PTS
16.25 Sir Prancealot 4/1 - 2Pt Win LOST-2PTS
17.00 Simenon 7/1 - 2pt Win WON @8/1 +16PTS
17.35 Lyric Ace 4/1 - 2pt Win, -2PTS (OneBet Longshot - Hototo 20/1 0.5Pts ew) +12.5PTS
Meeting Total:+17.5PTS
Saturday, 16 June 2012
Golf tips - US Open Midpoint selections
At the halfway stage of the US Open, organisers will be delighted to see nothing like the scoring of last year. It got tough again and, with -1 leading, the possibility that a score over par wins the event is a real one.
As usual, we are going to look at both the event history and the merits of the players near the head of field, to discern whether any value opportunities exist.
First, let's look at where the eventual winner of the US Open has been after 2 rounds in the last 11 years.
The message here is fairly stark. If you want to win the US Open, you have to be contending at halfway to have a realistic chance. Michael Campbell won from 6th place in 2005 and all other winners have been even higher than that at midway. 6 times the halfway leader has gone on to win. As a further note, Lee Janzen won in 1998, the last time Olympic hosted. He was 2 shots back at the halfway stage to continue the theme. Campbell was 2 shots back in 2005 - indeed all 11 previous winners have been within 2 shots at this stage of the event.
I suspect the reason for this is that the US Open courses always play so tough (bar 2011); playing the weekend under par is genuinely difficult. Any players near the head of the field who can grind out a level par weekend will almost invariably beat the field below him.
The top 6 and 2 shot rule above says our winner is either Furyk, Woods, Toms, Thompson, McDowell, Colsaerts or Peterson. 11 years consecutive history tells me that is all I need to know. If true, the very good news is that 2 of those 7 players were in our staking plan before the off. Furyk (45/1) and McDowell (80/1) leapt off the page for me before the off as genuine value prices. I believe they have genuine claims here, despite a certain Mr Woods in T1 with Furyk.
Next, let's see where players finishing the event in the top 5 have been positioned at halfway.
Kevin Chappell ranks first here, having gone from 8th to 3rd at the Children's Miracle and from 1st to 2nd at the Valero Texas, both in 2011. However, 2 samples is not enough to predict a hero charge from +5. Of more interest is the 2nd ranked David Toms. I have loyally followed Toms in recent weeks because the challenge faced has seemed well suited to his skill set. So, slightly frustrated to see him challenge here and not MC! 3 times in the last 2 years Toms has led at half way His finishing position has been no worse than 3rd. However, in this event, Toms has not been any better than 8th since 2001 and has not shot better than 70 in 9 weekends in that time. Toms deserves respect here though, despite that fact. Jim Furyk performs poorly in this analysis, but his performance is evolving as his overall form improves again. The same can be said of Woods, who has translated a 4th in to 3rd by the end and a 2nd and 1st at halfway in to victories this season. Both players are different to that of last year and can not reasonably be judged in this analysis. KJ Choi ranks 3rd in this analysis driven by some really strong weekends in 2011. He has been in and out this year, however, and his weekend record is abject at the US Open, with no rounds better than 73 in 5 years and 10 rounds. Choi went from 3rd to 30th in 2003 and from 4th to 15th in 2005. He is not my charger from deep this week.
We have Furyk in the outrights who has a strong chance here. I am also fairly optimistic of a solid weekend from Kuchar which could see him place. McDowell will be close I suspect by the end.
I am not going to formally advise a bet because of the positions I already hold with the above players. If I were to advise a bet without the players I have, it would be a W only bet on Furyk and an EW bet on Toms. The echoes with 2008 are strong at this stage and I really feel those in the top 5 now will dominate the top 5 on Sunday. Westwood is the most likely in my view to get involved in the place positions from deep, but 33s is not a good enough price to get onside. If backing Woods, it may pay to wait for in-play opportunities should he, for example find himself +1 after the brutal first 6 holes. Consider an in-play bet on any player in this list who is still on the same score or better after the 6th.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
As usual, we are going to look at both the event history and the merits of the players near the head of field, to discern whether any value opportunities exist.
First, let's look at where the eventual winner of the US Open has been after 2 rounds in the last 11 years.
The message here is fairly stark. If you want to win the US Open, you have to be contending at halfway to have a realistic chance. Michael Campbell won from 6th place in 2005 and all other winners have been even higher than that at midway. 6 times the halfway leader has gone on to win. As a further note, Lee Janzen won in 1998, the last time Olympic hosted. He was 2 shots back at the halfway stage to continue the theme. Campbell was 2 shots back in 2005 - indeed all 11 previous winners have been within 2 shots at this stage of the event.
I suspect the reason for this is that the US Open courses always play so tough (bar 2011); playing the weekend under par is genuinely difficult. Any players near the head of the field who can grind out a level par weekend will almost invariably beat the field below him.
The top 6 and 2 shot rule above says our winner is either Furyk, Woods, Toms, Thompson, McDowell, Colsaerts or Peterson. 11 years consecutive history tells me that is all I need to know. If true, the very good news is that 2 of those 7 players were in our staking plan before the off. Furyk (45/1) and McDowell (80/1) leapt off the page for me before the off as genuine value prices. I believe they have genuine claims here, despite a certain Mr Woods in T1 with Furyk.
Next, let's see where players finishing the event in the top 5 have been positioned at halfway.
Since 2005, no player has finished top 5 having been below 25th at halfway. That in theory removes the Westwood, Poulter, Kaymer, Manassero, Simpson etc group at +5. Last year, 5 of the 7 players in the place positions (incl ties) were top 5 at halfway. 2008 was a really bizarre result. Midpoint leader Stuart Appleby fell apart and finished 36th, but the real oddity was that all in the top 6 at the end were in the top 5 at halfway. If punting was always that simple, we would have no bookmakers left. Appleby led on -1 at halfway that year by the way, with a certain Mr Woods a shot back. He somehow got to play-off on one leg (he was visibly injured) before prevailing over Mediate. That sort of mental toughness is exactly as per the brief this year. Woods is a very clear danger. In 2007, a certain Jim Furyk came from 19th to finish 2nd, with Woods going from 13th to 2nd also. Furyk won the US Open in 2003, taking his lead at halfway and staying there to the end, winning by 3 shots in the end Westwood was one of the players to charge from 25th to 3rd last year, mainly due to a fine 65 on day 3. We have him win only, so that appears almost gone, but he still has claims for a place. Matt Kuchar, one of our selections and 9th at halfway, was able to move from 24th to 6th in 2010 after a fine final round.
The instances of players coming from deep do exist, but also it has been very clear that being in position and staying solid over the weekend will yield rewards.
If looking for a halfway punt then, pick your winner from the 7 players at -1 or +1. If looking for a place play, a player can come from a few shots further back than that, but it will be difficult to do.
In the usual way, we will now look at the leading contenders, to understand how they have performed when in contention in the last 2 years. The chart features all players from the leaders to T29th with the ranking at the end showing how they have performed on average over the weekend when in the top 10 before round 3 starts.
Kevin Chappell ranks first here, having gone from 8th to 3rd at the Children's Miracle and from 1st to 2nd at the Valero Texas, both in 2011. However, 2 samples is not enough to predict a hero charge from +5. Of more interest is the 2nd ranked David Toms. I have loyally followed Toms in recent weeks because the challenge faced has seemed well suited to his skill set. So, slightly frustrated to see him challenge here and not MC! 3 times in the last 2 years Toms has led at half way His finishing position has been no worse than 3rd. However, in this event, Toms has not been any better than 8th since 2001 and has not shot better than 70 in 9 weekends in that time. Toms deserves respect here though, despite that fact. Jim Furyk performs poorly in this analysis, but his performance is evolving as his overall form improves again. The same can be said of Woods, who has translated a 4th in to 3rd by the end and a 2nd and 1st at halfway in to victories this season. Both players are different to that of last year and can not reasonably be judged in this analysis. KJ Choi ranks 3rd in this analysis driven by some really strong weekends in 2011. He has been in and out this year, however, and his weekend record is abject at the US Open, with no rounds better than 73 in 5 years and 10 rounds. Choi went from 3rd to 30th in 2003 and from 4th to 15th in 2005. He is not my charger from deep this week.
We have Furyk in the outrights who has a strong chance here. I am also fairly optimistic of a solid weekend from Kuchar which could see him place. McDowell will be close I suspect by the end.
I am not going to formally advise a bet because of the positions I already hold with the above players. If I were to advise a bet without the players I have, it would be a W only bet on Furyk and an EW bet on Toms. The echoes with 2008 are strong at this stage and I really feel those in the top 5 now will dominate the top 5 on Sunday. Westwood is the most likely in my view to get involved in the place positions from deep, but 33s is not a good enough price to get onside. If backing Woods, it may pay to wait for in-play opportunities should he, for example find himself +1 after the brutal first 6 holes. Consider an in-play bet on any player in this list who is still on the same score or better after the 6th.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
OneBet Racing Selections - 16th June
16th June
Hexham
2.25 Farm Pixie3/1 2 point win -2PTS
3.00 Golden Sparkle 11/8 2 point win -2PTS
3.35 Riskier 3/1 2 point win WON+6PTS
4.05 Saddlers Mot 11/4 NAP 4 point win -4PTS
4.35 Homer Run 5/2 2 point win -2PTS
5.05 Fog Patches 5/2 2 point win +5PTS
5.35 Absolutely Bygones 2/1- 2 point win +4PTS
Meeting total: +5PTS
Hexham
2.25 Farm Pixie3/1 2 point win -2PTS
3.00 Golden Sparkle 11/8 2 point win -2PTS
3.35 Riskier 3/1 2 point win WON+6PTS
4.05 Saddlers Mot 11/4 NAP 4 point win -4PTS
4.35 Homer Run 5/2 2 point win -2PTS
5.05 Fog Patches 5/2 2 point win +5PTS
5.35 Absolutely Bygones 2/1- 2 point win +4PTS
Meeting total: +5PTS
Friday, 15 June 2012
OneBet Racing Selections - 15th June
15th June
Aintree
5.50 Oakwell 9/1 1 point EW NR
6.25 Tuskar Rock 4/1 -2 point win -2PTS
7.00 Jolly Roger 11/8 NAP 4 point win +5.5PTS
7.35 Bhaltair 2/1 2 point win +4PTS
8.10 Vegas Cash 11/10 2 point win +2.2PTS
8.45 With Grace 2/1 1 point win -1PT
9.20 Vinnie My Boys Evs 2 point win +2PTS
Aintree
5.50 Oakwell 9/1 1 point EW NR
6.25 Tuskar Rock 4/1 -2 point win -2PTS
7.00 Jolly Roger 11/8 NAP 4 point win +5.5PTS
7.35 Bhaltair 2/1 2 point win +4PTS
8.10 Vegas Cash 11/10 2 point win +2.2PTS
8.45 With Grace 2/1 1 point win -1PT
9.20 Vinnie My Boys Evs 2 point win +2PTS
Meeting Total: +10.7PTS
Wednesday, 13 June 2012
Golf tips - US Open Specials
US Open Outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-outright-selections.html
US Open player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-2012-us-open-player-form.html
US Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-tournament-form-guide.html
As always in a Major Championship, there are a whole host of special bets out there. I believe a few offer value. Without going in to any specifics, my selections are posted below
US Open player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-2012-us-open-player-form.html
US Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-tournament-form-guide.html
As always in a Major Championship, there are a whole host of special bets out there. I believe a few offer value. Without going in to any specifics, my selections are posted below
72 hole matchbets
3pts Graeme McDowell to beat Nick Watney at 10/11 (Betfred, Totesport) W Profit 2.73pts
2.5pts Jonathan Byrd to beat Martin Laird at 20/23 (Boylesports) W Profit 2.17pts
2pts Carl Pettersson to beat Martrin Laird at 5/6 (SkyBet) Loss 2pts
1.5pts Branden Grace to beat Nicolas Colsaerts at evens (Paddy Power) Loss 1.5pts
1pt Phil Mickelson to beat Tiger Woods at 6/4 (William Hill) Loss 1pt
Top nationality markets
1pt EW Aaron Baddeley to be top Australian at 13/2 (William Hill only - take 1/3 odds and only 2 places) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Raphael Jacquelin to be top Continental European at 50/1 (Stan James) Result EW Profit 11.5pts
Twitter specials
1pt Both Byrd and Furyk to finish top 10 at 30/1 (incl ties) - SkyBet. Loss 1pt
Total profit: 8.90pts
Total profit: 8.90pts
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Tuesday, 12 June 2012
Golf Tips - St Omer Open
Outright selections
1pt EW Pelle Edberg at 25/1 (Various) Result T4th Profit 2.125pts
1pt EW Lloyd Saltman at 40/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Roope Kakko at 100/1 (SkyBet) Loss 2pts
Total loss : 1.875pts
All 3 have demonstrable form last time out and hit the ball a long way off the tee. That can be a real asset at this course. All 3 are also in the top 14 for putts per round. This course is forgiving enough for all 3 to take advantage of their length off the tee and hole some putts to contend here. I love the 100/1 quote on Kakko in this field and feel that all in this quality of event can really contend. In this field, not worth saying too much more, but these prices really leap out at me.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
1pt EW Pelle Edberg at 25/1 (Various) Result T4th Profit 2.125pts
1pt EW Lloyd Saltman at 40/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Roope Kakko at 100/1 (SkyBet) Loss 2pts
Total loss : 1.875pts
All 3 have demonstrable form last time out and hit the ball a long way off the tee. That can be a real asset at this course. All 3 are also in the top 14 for putts per round. This course is forgiving enough for all 3 to take advantage of their length off the tee and hole some putts to contend here. I love the 100/1 quote on Kakko in this field and feel that all in this quality of event can really contend. In this field, not worth saying too much more, but these prices really leap out at me.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Golf tips - US Open Tournament form guide
US Open Outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-outright-selections.html
US Open player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-2012-us-open-player-form.html
Hi all
As usual, my Tournament form analysis below.
My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:
US Open player form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-2012-us-open-player-form.html
Hi all
As usual, my Tournament form analysis below.
My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:
- Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
- Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
- Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.
- Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use. Not a factor here, as this course has not hosted the event since 1998.
As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year.
So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results:
I am hesitant in advising the significance of these results as of course, the venue differs year on year. However, the US Open is set up to be a brutal test for players, so those prominent in the above form guide know how to keep their focus an be patient during the inevitable spells when scoring gets tough. Perspective is critical here. The first 6 holes are a real test and it is conceivable that anything less than a fine ball-striking start could see a player fall to +2 or worse. Those experienced above in US Opens before know well that +2 come the close of Sunday is top 20 and maybe much higher. The ability to play each hole on its merits and with full focus will take a player a long way this week.
You will see that my outright selections largely feature prominently here. Baddeley, Puolter and Harman are exceptions to that statement, but I feel the slighlty different remit this year brings them more readily in to play. Harman is an outrageous price for one with a fine junior record here (more about that to come in the outright preview)
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Golf tips 2012 - US Open player form guide
Outright selection
1.25pts EW Ian Poulter at 80/1 (William Hill)
US Open Outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-outright-selections.html
US Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-tournament-form-guide.html
Very much like the Masters, we enter this week's 2nd major of the year with the world's finest players in ominous form. World number 1 Luke Donald won the prestigious BMW PGA at Wentworth and followed up with a solid 12th place last time out. Rory McIlroy righted the ship and needed a birdie at the last to force a play-off with Dustin Johnson (McIlroy actually found the water and made double). Lee Westwood won at a canter in Sweden and Tiger won last time out also, with a storming final round.
So given this, just who are form players entering the event? My usual 3 tournament form guide is below, summarising the top 60 or so players, with supporting comments below regarding those who are much bigger odds than their form at least suggests they should be.
Jonathan Byrd - Byrd has a pretty abject record at the US Open, although the varied courses perhaps lessen the significance of that statement. Byrd's most recent memory of California is a positive one, with 8th on the Bentgrass (same as here at Olympic) of Riviera in the Northern Trust Open earlier this season. Byrd's good run really stretches to 5 events now, with 27th, 9th, 12th, 10th and 6th last time out. 4 of the last 5 events plus a 5th at Riviera have all been on Bentgrass, suggesting he will handle the greens OK. Byrd's driving and greens hit stats in recent events are useful. I fancy Byrd to go fairly well this week and the 100/1 available holds some appeal.
Peter Lawrie and Branden Grace are players who rank well due to their exploits in Europe. Despite strong recent from both, it is quite a leap of faith that they deliver strongly here. With Grace at 200s and Lawrie at 300s, it seems the layers dismiss their chances also. Despite the fact that Grace is a 3 times winner (including a 60/1 winner in the china open for us earlier this year) I actually prefer the credentials of Lawrie of the two. 11th in driving accuracy (Grace 75th) and 37th in greens hit (34th for Grace) is a decent skill set for this event. However, I would be very surprised if either scramble an putt well enough to compete with the very best here.
World number 1 as recently as last year, Martin Kaymer is 66/1 here despite lying 5th in the form guide. 8th in the US Open of 2010 and with most recent results of 7th, 15th and 15th, there are signs that KAymer is ready to win again. However, with the desire to be able to shape the ball both ways off the tee, I do not see it is this week he really contends. Kaymer is a class act when on song, but I genuinely believe that even at 60/1, he has too much to find here. Expect me to be looking hard at him for upcoming events however.
Bo Van Pelt has been really strong of late on tour. Van Pelt finished 14th at last year's US Open. His recent form is consistently good - The Heritage aside, Van Pelt has had top 19 finishes in his last 8 events. Pretty compelling form. Van Pelt is a solid golfer that you can rely on to generally play pretty well over 4 days. However, 8 successive top 19 have brought ZERO place finishes. This test is as tough as he will have had it this year and I think he falls short again. 66s is not without attraction, but I do not trust him enough here. Van Pelt can play in California, with 8th at Riviera this year and 2nd at the Frys in 2010. Look for Riviera as your barometer here though as this week will be tough and the putting test at Riviera is closer to this week's challenge. Good, but not a winner for me.
I took my list of golfers on Sunday for this analysis, which means some who are not taking part are included here as they were possible entrants at the time. A shame, because John Huh on recent form and key attributes was very interesting here at 200/1.
Ian Poulter I very much like on this track. With the withrawal of Casey and the never entering Sean O'Hair no longer part of my plans, I am going to add Poulter to my team. On the tight, tree-lined Wentworth, Poulter finished 10th a couple of weeks ago, improving upon his best effort around the track. I want somebody who can putt on hard fast bentgrass surfaces this week and the man who has been 10th, 27th and 3rd in the last 3 Masters will do for me. However, he makes this list for his recent form. Coming in to the vent, in a stretch that inclues top notch events such as the Masters, the Players and BMW PGA Championship Poulter has the following 6 event stretch : 3rd, 7th, 29th, 15th, 25th, 10th. Pretty compelling form. The 29th was on an absolute beast of course in China and the Ballantines after was on slow putting surfaces - hardly Poulter's forté. 3rd, 7th and 21st in accuracy off the tee in his last 3 events and 13th in greens at the Players, I really expect Poulter to be grinding it near the top of the leaderboard this week.
Vijay Singh fell away badly in round 4 of the Memorial to finish 16th last time out. However, 9th, 47th and 16th in the last 3 events is at least suggestive that Singh is finding a groove again. My big worry is that in all 3 events, Singh has faltered badly on day 4. Always a risk with his back problems, I suspect fatigue may play a part in the day 4 problems. Singh was 25th back in 1998 at this course when his threat much more obvious. I am tempted to get involved on Betfair or Spreadex with a view trading out after three days, but will not advise anything formally here.
Roberto Castro was 1000 on Betfair until yesterday and almost got some of my money. His last 3 events, all on Bent greens, have yielded 32nd, 29th and 19th place finishes. Not bad. Last time out (Crowne Plaza), he would have challenged for the win were it not for a really poor second round. Rounds 1, 3 and 4 were very strong. Where Castro appeals is that he was 4th in accuracy and 13th in greens in that event. Far from short off the tee, Castro could surprise this week and produce a decent finish. I do not rate his chances of a top 20 particularly highly, but can see the potential were he to do so.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
1.25pts EW Ian Poulter at 80/1 (William Hill)
US Open Outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-outright-selections.html
US Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-tournament-form-guide.html
Very much like the Masters, we enter this week's 2nd major of the year with the world's finest players in ominous form. World number 1 Luke Donald won the prestigious BMW PGA at Wentworth and followed up with a solid 12th place last time out. Rory McIlroy righted the ship and needed a birdie at the last to force a play-off with Dustin Johnson (McIlroy actually found the water and made double). Lee Westwood won at a canter in Sweden and Tiger won last time out also, with a storming final round.
So given this, just who are form players entering the event? My usual 3 tournament form guide is below, summarising the top 60 or so players, with supporting comments below regarding those who are much bigger odds than their form at least suggests they should be.
Jonathan Byrd - Byrd has a pretty abject record at the US Open, although the varied courses perhaps lessen the significance of that statement. Byrd's most recent memory of California is a positive one, with 8th on the Bentgrass (same as here at Olympic) of Riviera in the Northern Trust Open earlier this season. Byrd's good run really stretches to 5 events now, with 27th, 9th, 12th, 10th and 6th last time out. 4 of the last 5 events plus a 5th at Riviera have all been on Bentgrass, suggesting he will handle the greens OK. Byrd's driving and greens hit stats in recent events are useful. I fancy Byrd to go fairly well this week and the 100/1 available holds some appeal.
Peter Lawrie and Branden Grace are players who rank well due to their exploits in Europe. Despite strong recent from both, it is quite a leap of faith that they deliver strongly here. With Grace at 200s and Lawrie at 300s, it seems the layers dismiss their chances also. Despite the fact that Grace is a 3 times winner (including a 60/1 winner in the china open for us earlier this year) I actually prefer the credentials of Lawrie of the two. 11th in driving accuracy (Grace 75th) and 37th in greens hit (34th for Grace) is a decent skill set for this event. However, I would be very surprised if either scramble an putt well enough to compete with the very best here.
World number 1 as recently as last year, Martin Kaymer is 66/1 here despite lying 5th in the form guide. 8th in the US Open of 2010 and with most recent results of 7th, 15th and 15th, there are signs that KAymer is ready to win again. However, with the desire to be able to shape the ball both ways off the tee, I do not see it is this week he really contends. Kaymer is a class act when on song, but I genuinely believe that even at 60/1, he has too much to find here. Expect me to be looking hard at him for upcoming events however.
Bo Van Pelt has been really strong of late on tour. Van Pelt finished 14th at last year's US Open. His recent form is consistently good - The Heritage aside, Van Pelt has had top 19 finishes in his last 8 events. Pretty compelling form. Van Pelt is a solid golfer that you can rely on to generally play pretty well over 4 days. However, 8 successive top 19 have brought ZERO place finishes. This test is as tough as he will have had it this year and I think he falls short again. 66s is not without attraction, but I do not trust him enough here. Van Pelt can play in California, with 8th at Riviera this year and 2nd at the Frys in 2010. Look for Riviera as your barometer here though as this week will be tough and the putting test at Riviera is closer to this week's challenge. Good, but not a winner for me.
I took my list of golfers on Sunday for this analysis, which means some who are not taking part are included here as they were possible entrants at the time. A shame, because John Huh on recent form and key attributes was very interesting here at 200/1.
Ian Poulter I very much like on this track. With the withrawal of Casey and the never entering Sean O'Hair no longer part of my plans, I am going to add Poulter to my team. On the tight, tree-lined Wentworth, Poulter finished 10th a couple of weeks ago, improving upon his best effort around the track. I want somebody who can putt on hard fast bentgrass surfaces this week and the man who has been 10th, 27th and 3rd in the last 3 Masters will do for me. However, he makes this list for his recent form. Coming in to the vent, in a stretch that inclues top notch events such as the Masters, the Players and BMW PGA Championship Poulter has the following 6 event stretch : 3rd, 7th, 29th, 15th, 25th, 10th. Pretty compelling form. The 29th was on an absolute beast of course in China and the Ballantines after was on slow putting surfaces - hardly Poulter's forté. 3rd, 7th and 21st in accuracy off the tee in his last 3 events and 13th in greens at the Players, I really expect Poulter to be grinding it near the top of the leaderboard this week.
Vijay Singh fell away badly in round 4 of the Memorial to finish 16th last time out. However, 9th, 47th and 16th in the last 3 events is at least suggestive that Singh is finding a groove again. My big worry is that in all 3 events, Singh has faltered badly on day 4. Always a risk with his back problems, I suspect fatigue may play a part in the day 4 problems. Singh was 25th back in 1998 at this course when his threat much more obvious. I am tempted to get involved on Betfair or Spreadex with a view trading out after three days, but will not advise anything formally here.
Roberto Castro was 1000 on Betfair until yesterday and almost got some of my money. His last 3 events, all on Bent greens, have yielded 32nd, 29th and 19th place finishes. Not bad. Last time out (Crowne Plaza), he would have challenged for the win were it not for a really poor second round. Rounds 1, 3 and 4 were very strong. Where Castro appeals is that he was 4th in accuracy and 13th in greens in that event. Far from short off the tee, Castro could surprise this week and produce a decent finish. I do not rate his chances of a top 20 particularly highly, but can see the potential were he to do so.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Monday, 11 June 2012
Golf tips - US Open outright selections
Outright selections
2pt win Lee Westwood at 13/1 (Paddy Power) Loss 2pts
2pts EW Matt Kuchar at 33/1 (Vairous, 6 places) Loss 4pts
1.5pts EW Jim Furyk at 45/1 (Betfred, Totesport) Result T4th Profit 9.125pts
1pt EW Graeme McDowell at 80/1 (Various, but take 6 places) Result 2nd Profit 19 points
1pt Ew Aaron Baddeley at 125/1 (Various, take 6 places) Loss 3pts
0.5pts EW Brian Harman at 1000/1 (Various, but take 6 places) Loss 1pt
1.25pts EW Ian Poulter at 80/1 (William Hill) Loss 2.5pts
Total profit - 15.625pts
Not taking part and replaced by Ian Poulter above
0.3pts EW Paul Casey at 250/1
1pt EW Sean O'Hair
US Open player from guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-2012-us-open-player-form.html
US Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-tournament-form-guide.html
Course guide
For the 5th time, Olympic Club hosts the US Open. Traditionally the toughest of the 4 majors, Rory McIlroy's gallop to victory and -16 will surely not be repeated this year. Similar to the Masters, this tournament is filled with subplots and the peaking players at the very top of the game.
First to the course. A Par 70 at little over 7000 yards this course is theoretically not long. However, much will depend on the approach a player takes as to the extent that is correct. Recent editions of the US Open have allowed big hitters to thrive, with the oft touted pre-requisite of accuracy off the tee not really being born out. However, this week appears a little different, which brings me back to my original point. Tight, tree-lined and with potential for coastal breeze to constantly affect ball flight off the tee, players may elect to play 3 wood or even lower on some holes to try and assure they remain in play for the next shot. Do that however, and this course will then play very long in places. In addition, there is a genuine requirement for players to shape the ball both ways off the tee.
The first 6 holes are brutal and will severely test the mental aspect of a player's game from the very start. Length wise, players will feel respite after that point.....that is, until the small matter of the 670 yard 16th. Lee Janzen won the event by 4 shots here in 1998 (averaging 70 shots per round), the last time this event was played here and was the only player to play four rounds in the 60s 5 years prior (thanks for that stat twitter). However, this course has changed fairly significantly then. In '98, there was a great controversy surrounding the 18th green and the fact that it literally would not hold the ball for certain shots. That has been fixed, diseased trees have been removed and several tee areas have been move, altering the dynamic of the tee shot for the golfer. Another highly significant change is the move from from Poa Annua to Bentgrass greens in 2007. This in some ways gives the event a more Open feel - Bentgrass greens does tend to give East coasters a better (more even) chance than Poa did.
Given all of this, what type of player are we looking for here? Bogey avoidance is perhaps obviously key. I refer to the point I made in the tournament guide "The US Open is set up to be a brutal test for players, so those prominent in the above form guide know how to keep their focus an be patient during the inevitable spells when scoring gets tough. Perspective is critical here. The first 6 holes are a real test and it is conceivable that anything less than a fine ball-striking start could see a player fall to +2 or worse. Those experienced above in US Opens before know well that +2 come the close of Sunday is top 20 and maybe much higher. The ability to play each hole on its merits and with full focus will take a player a long way this week". Westwood (10th), Kuchar (2nd), Furyk (1st), McDowell (55th), Baddeley (108th), Harman (93rd) and Poulter (85th last year, no formal stats this as of yet) are a mixed bag in this stat on tour.
Total driving is important as a player ideally can be both long and straight. Of the two, players that can find the fairway are arguably more important than those who can hit it long this week. I believe his to be an open Open, as it were and both type of golfer will feature come Sunday I expect. Allied to this is the ability to find the putting surface. Greens are on the small side, so instances of long, treacherous putts across tiered greens will be lessened here. With bent greens possibly reaching 13.5 on the stimp, players will want to find greens as often as possible to avoid treacherous chips. Over the back on 18 remains a bad plan......
The other type of player is the guy who misses a few greens, chips like a dream and putts wonderfully from 5-10ft. All with have a few of those, but I do not really want to trust that anybody does that to win more than most. Putting on such greens is important, but I think this type of test is more about making the 2 putt par your default setting and allowing the occasional putt to drop. I do not need the best putter this week, although anybody who can guarantee me Westwood tops that stat, I will take 7/1.
The selections
Before I explain my reasoning, a quick comment on the leading contenders in general.
World no.1 Luke Donald enters this event on the back of a win in the prestigious BMW PGA and a fast finishing 12th last time out. A brilliant scrambler and putter, Donald has a chance here. If you pick the course up and dump it in Florida, I am backing Donald at those odds. I feel I can actually leave Donald quite easily here. First, Donald's driving distance, accuracy, greens hit and even putting is less compelling this year versus last as a generalisation. Although long enough for this course, I think he will suffer too greatly in GIR to be able to win.
Rory defends here of course and had he found a birdie instead of water on the 72nd hole last week, he would have taken Dustin Johnson to a play-off. However, Rory missed so many fairways last week and a repeat of that here will really hurt him. I do not believe Rory wins.
Tiger has won 3 times now since his return (yes, I do include the Chevron). Each time he has returned a scene of several past triumphs to prosper again. A much younger Tiger played here in 98, finishing T18th and failing to better 71 over 4 days. I simply can not trust that he wins here for a whole host of reasons, not least that he is a difficult man to trust on tight tracks. Like Rory (and despite tour stats to the contrary), I am not convinced Tiger is straight enough to win this week.
On to Lee Westwood. That I have gone win only on Westwood could be interpreted as lunacy. Arguably the most consistent finish in Major Championship golf with 6 top 3 finishes in 10 majors, Westwood fits the bill beautifully here. Players do not win the US Open after winning the week prior (and, Ogilvy aside, players in the last 10 years do not win having played the week prior, never mind won) so we do have a fair bit of history to overcome here. If opposing Westwood, this would be a compelling reason. As I am on side, I will pick at the stat. Firstly, Westwood's win last Saturday was on a Wed-Sat schedule; the extra day is a significant difference. Second, Westwood won at an absolute canter and had noting like the sort of mental exertion that the likes of Dustin Johnson and Rory faced late (not so late as the event finished earlier than other regular events) in to Sunday. I have already said that I want great all-round drivers (Westwood), players who can consistently find the green (Westwood), tend to keep bogeys off the card (Westwood) and not necessarily the best putter on the planet (Westwood). Westwood can handle the brief this week and the two top 3 finishes in the 3 years at the Masters demonstrates that fast bent is not necessarily the feature that costs him a serious challenge for the title here. I could have gone 2EW here, but actually believe that a dialled in Westwood this week can leave this field in his wake. Let's be non-English and get bold. Win only.
Matt Kuchar is not a player that I usually look to. However, I simply can not ignore his credentials here. T15th as a rookie in 1998 here, Kuchar really should be close come Sunday. Whichever way you evaluate Kuchar's finishes, Mr Consistency is impressive. 11 events, nothing worse than 44th, with 9 top 26s this year, Kuchar has won the Players and finished T3 in the Masters. If we extend back in to last year, Kuchar has in 20 tournaments been in the top 26 17 times! That is truly sensational consistency. The win at the Players offers encouragement here as the tight course offers some similarity to this in terms of the challenge from tee to green Kuchar was exceptional in closing out at Sawgrass and I see him winning here. His 3rd at the Masters shows also that fast bent is fine for him. Kuchar has been top 10 in greens in 3 of the last 5 events and top 10 in putts in each of the last 2 events. Hard - too hard - to omit this week.
Jim Furyk finished 2nd here in 1998 so can play the course in its old guise. I am happy to wager he can play the newly modified course too. When I think of a photofit for tough challenges, I think of Furyk, A great record in British Opens and a previous US Open winner, Furyk is exactly the competitor to have on your team this week. Top 22 in riving accuracy in 8 of his last 9 events and 3rd last time out, Furyk will be firing in to greens from the fairway more than most. Also, first in greens at the Crowne Plaza demonstrates where his iron game is. I always think that in tough events, consistent players can prosper as they just need to stay consistent to turn a decent finish in to a place position and potentially even a win. Furyk is like Kuchar in that respect, both as they are impeccable golfers who so often finish well. With 8 straight top 26 finishes including a play-off loss at the Transitions, this feels like the sort of event Furyk could return big in. The 2010 Tour Championship winner can really give us a run this week, by doing nothing more than keeping on keeping on.
Graeme McDowell won of course in 2010. His winning score was even par and the brief will be similar here. It is fair to say that McDowell has failed to really hit the heights since. However, there are signs he is coming back. Although great friends, I am sure GMac would love to take the title back from Rory this week. McDowell has actually MC in his last 2 events, and the Players and BMW PGA are events you want players demonstrating form in to feel entirely happy. On the flip side, this means McDowells is 80s and not 40s, so not all bad. Last year, Mcdowell finished 14th, ruined only by a poor 2nd round. McDowell's record around the event was abject: 42nd, 100th, 59th, 61st, 113th, 33rd, 128th, 14th (US Open result), 87th, 65th, 127th, 43rd, 37th. 13 straight events with only the US Open a positive. I often like to find players who have displayed this sort of profile in the previous year and enter this year in better shape - my spread bet on Allenby last week was on a similar premise. McDowell missed the cut at the players due largely to his putting. His game tee to green is actually very encouraging. In the last 4 events, McDowell's driving accuracy reads 1st, 1st, 4th, 1st. Wow. 28th in greens last time out and back with real incentive this week, I believe McDowell can again contend.
Aaron Baddeley has a great recent record at Riviera and I like the link here as it is arguably the most representable challenge to this week on tour. In his last 5 starts in California, Baddeley has finished 6th, 1st, 27th, 4th and 11th. Baddeley started this season well but fell away between the Shell Houston (week 13) and the Crowne Plaza (Week 21) with nothing better than 40th However, at the Memorial last time out, Baddeley started well and finished a solid 9th. 25th and 26th for putts in the last two events on Bent greens, Baddeley will cope better than most on these greens. The hint at a return to form at a huge 125/1 makes this a highly appealing price.
So, my first ever advised 1000/1 tip. Definitely fishing here huh? William Hill's pointless pricing on outsiders aside (in which all players are lower than other bookies in price), Harman is 400s with several other layers. the main reason I have taken a punt on this crazy outsider is his performance in the 2004 US Junior champs here. Harman shot 66-67 to finish as the only player under par and a winner by 8 strokes. Of course, the course has changed, but clearly the basic attributes fitted his eye well last year in the same way that it did Furyk in 1998. Harman's form has been fairly poor after a good start to the season, but last time out his driving was much improved (10th accuracy, 28th distance). Amidst an average Players Championship display, Harman did shoot the 5th best round in round 2. A real long range punt this one, but a good start could see him cause a massive shock and challenge for a place.
Finally, my super-sub Ian Poulter. I said all I really wanted and needed to in my player guide posted earlier today "On the tight, tree-lined Wentworth track, Poulter finished 10th a couple of weeks ago, improving upon his best effort around the track. I want somebody who can putt on hard fast bentgrass surfaces this week and the man who has been 10th, 27th and 3rd in the last 3 Masters will do for me. However, he makes this list for his recent form. Coming in to the vent, in a stretch that includes top notch events such as the Masters, the Players and BMW PGA Championship Poulter has the following 6 event stretch : 3rd, 7th, 29th, 15th, 25th, 10th. Pretty compelling form. The 29th was on an absolute beast of course in China and the Ballantines after was on slow putting surfaces - hardly Poulter's forté. 3rd, 7th and 21st in accuracy off the tee in his last 3 events and 13th in greens at the Players, I really expect Poulter to be grinding it near the top of the leaderboard this week."
There are obvious others to consider such as Phil (I am worried about Phil), Rose, Dufner, Molinari and Petterson, but I am very happy with my team
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
2pt win Lee Westwood at 13/1 (Paddy Power) Loss 2pts
2pts EW Matt Kuchar at 33/1 (Vairous, 6 places) Loss 4pts
1.5pts EW Jim Furyk at 45/1 (Betfred, Totesport) Result T4th Profit 9.125pts
1pt EW Graeme McDowell at 80/1 (Various, but take 6 places) Result 2nd Profit 19 points
1pt Ew Aaron Baddeley at 125/1 (Various, take 6 places) Loss 3pts
0.5pts EW Brian Harman at 1000/1 (Various, but take 6 places) Loss 1pt
1.25pts EW Ian Poulter at 80/1 (William Hill) Loss 2.5pts
Total profit - 15.625pts
Not taking part and replaced by Ian Poulter above
0.3pts EW Paul Casey at 250/1
1pt EW Sean O'Hair
US Open player from guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-2012-us-open-player-form.html
US Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-tournament-form-guide.html
Course guide
For the 5th time, Olympic Club hosts the US Open. Traditionally the toughest of the 4 majors, Rory McIlroy's gallop to victory and -16 will surely not be repeated this year. Similar to the Masters, this tournament is filled with subplots and the peaking players at the very top of the game.
First to the course. A Par 70 at little over 7000 yards this course is theoretically not long. However, much will depend on the approach a player takes as to the extent that is correct. Recent editions of the US Open have allowed big hitters to thrive, with the oft touted pre-requisite of accuracy off the tee not really being born out. However, this week appears a little different, which brings me back to my original point. Tight, tree-lined and with potential for coastal breeze to constantly affect ball flight off the tee, players may elect to play 3 wood or even lower on some holes to try and assure they remain in play for the next shot. Do that however, and this course will then play very long in places. In addition, there is a genuine requirement for players to shape the ball both ways off the tee.
The first 6 holes are brutal and will severely test the mental aspect of a player's game from the very start. Length wise, players will feel respite after that point.....that is, until the small matter of the 670 yard 16th. Lee Janzen won the event by 4 shots here in 1998 (averaging 70 shots per round), the last time this event was played here and was the only player to play four rounds in the 60s 5 years prior (thanks for that stat twitter). However, this course has changed fairly significantly then. In '98, there was a great controversy surrounding the 18th green and the fact that it literally would not hold the ball for certain shots. That has been fixed, diseased trees have been removed and several tee areas have been move, altering the dynamic of the tee shot for the golfer. Another highly significant change is the move from from Poa Annua to Bentgrass greens in 2007. This in some ways gives the event a more Open feel - Bentgrass greens does tend to give East coasters a better (more even) chance than Poa did.
Given all of this, what type of player are we looking for here? Bogey avoidance is perhaps obviously key. I refer to the point I made in the tournament guide "The US Open is set up to be a brutal test for players, so those prominent in the above form guide know how to keep their focus an be patient during the inevitable spells when scoring gets tough. Perspective is critical here. The first 6 holes are a real test and it is conceivable that anything less than a fine ball-striking start could see a player fall to +2 or worse. Those experienced above in US Opens before know well that +2 come the close of Sunday is top 20 and maybe much higher. The ability to play each hole on its merits and with full focus will take a player a long way this week". Westwood (10th), Kuchar (2nd), Furyk (1st), McDowell (55th), Baddeley (108th), Harman (93rd) and Poulter (85th last year, no formal stats this as of yet) are a mixed bag in this stat on tour.
Total driving is important as a player ideally can be both long and straight. Of the two, players that can find the fairway are arguably more important than those who can hit it long this week. I believe his to be an open Open, as it were and both type of golfer will feature come Sunday I expect. Allied to this is the ability to find the putting surface. Greens are on the small side, so instances of long, treacherous putts across tiered greens will be lessened here. With bent greens possibly reaching 13.5 on the stimp, players will want to find greens as often as possible to avoid treacherous chips. Over the back on 18 remains a bad plan......
The other type of player is the guy who misses a few greens, chips like a dream and putts wonderfully from 5-10ft. All with have a few of those, but I do not really want to trust that anybody does that to win more than most. Putting on such greens is important, but I think this type of test is more about making the 2 putt par your default setting and allowing the occasional putt to drop. I do not need the best putter this week, although anybody who can guarantee me Westwood tops that stat, I will take 7/1.
The selections
Before I explain my reasoning, a quick comment on the leading contenders in general.
World no.1 Luke Donald enters this event on the back of a win in the prestigious BMW PGA and a fast finishing 12th last time out. A brilliant scrambler and putter, Donald has a chance here. If you pick the course up and dump it in Florida, I am backing Donald at those odds. I feel I can actually leave Donald quite easily here. First, Donald's driving distance, accuracy, greens hit and even putting is less compelling this year versus last as a generalisation. Although long enough for this course, I think he will suffer too greatly in GIR to be able to win.
Rory defends here of course and had he found a birdie instead of water on the 72nd hole last week, he would have taken Dustin Johnson to a play-off. However, Rory missed so many fairways last week and a repeat of that here will really hurt him. I do not believe Rory wins.
Tiger has won 3 times now since his return (yes, I do include the Chevron). Each time he has returned a scene of several past triumphs to prosper again. A much younger Tiger played here in 98, finishing T18th and failing to better 71 over 4 days. I simply can not trust that he wins here for a whole host of reasons, not least that he is a difficult man to trust on tight tracks. Like Rory (and despite tour stats to the contrary), I am not convinced Tiger is straight enough to win this week.
On to Lee Westwood. That I have gone win only on Westwood could be interpreted as lunacy. Arguably the most consistent finish in Major Championship golf with 6 top 3 finishes in 10 majors, Westwood fits the bill beautifully here. Players do not win the US Open after winning the week prior (and, Ogilvy aside, players in the last 10 years do not win having played the week prior, never mind won) so we do have a fair bit of history to overcome here. If opposing Westwood, this would be a compelling reason. As I am on side, I will pick at the stat. Firstly, Westwood's win last Saturday was on a Wed-Sat schedule; the extra day is a significant difference. Second, Westwood won at an absolute canter and had noting like the sort of mental exertion that the likes of Dustin Johnson and Rory faced late (not so late as the event finished earlier than other regular events) in to Sunday. I have already said that I want great all-round drivers (Westwood), players who can consistently find the green (Westwood), tend to keep bogeys off the card (Westwood) and not necessarily the best putter on the planet (Westwood). Westwood can handle the brief this week and the two top 3 finishes in the 3 years at the Masters demonstrates that fast bent is not necessarily the feature that costs him a serious challenge for the title here. I could have gone 2EW here, but actually believe that a dialled in Westwood this week can leave this field in his wake. Let's be non-English and get bold. Win only.
Matt Kuchar is not a player that I usually look to. However, I simply can not ignore his credentials here. T15th as a rookie in 1998 here, Kuchar really should be close come Sunday. Whichever way you evaluate Kuchar's finishes, Mr Consistency is impressive. 11 events, nothing worse than 44th, with 9 top 26s this year, Kuchar has won the Players and finished T3 in the Masters. If we extend back in to last year, Kuchar has in 20 tournaments been in the top 26 17 times! That is truly sensational consistency. The win at the Players offers encouragement here as the tight course offers some similarity to this in terms of the challenge from tee to green Kuchar was exceptional in closing out at Sawgrass and I see him winning here. His 3rd at the Masters shows also that fast bent is fine for him. Kuchar has been top 10 in greens in 3 of the last 5 events and top 10 in putts in each of the last 2 events. Hard - too hard - to omit this week.
Jim Furyk finished 2nd here in 1998 so can play the course in its old guise. I am happy to wager he can play the newly modified course too. When I think of a photofit for tough challenges, I think of Furyk, A great record in British Opens and a previous US Open winner, Furyk is exactly the competitor to have on your team this week. Top 22 in riving accuracy in 8 of his last 9 events and 3rd last time out, Furyk will be firing in to greens from the fairway more than most. Also, first in greens at the Crowne Plaza demonstrates where his iron game is. I always think that in tough events, consistent players can prosper as they just need to stay consistent to turn a decent finish in to a place position and potentially even a win. Furyk is like Kuchar in that respect, both as they are impeccable golfers who so often finish well. With 8 straight top 26 finishes including a play-off loss at the Transitions, this feels like the sort of event Furyk could return big in. The 2010 Tour Championship winner can really give us a run this week, by doing nothing more than keeping on keeping on.
Graeme McDowell won of course in 2010. His winning score was even par and the brief will be similar here. It is fair to say that McDowell has failed to really hit the heights since. However, there are signs he is coming back. Although great friends, I am sure GMac would love to take the title back from Rory this week. McDowell has actually MC in his last 2 events, and the Players and BMW PGA are events you want players demonstrating form in to feel entirely happy. On the flip side, this means McDowells is 80s and not 40s, so not all bad. Last year, Mcdowell finished 14th, ruined only by a poor 2nd round. McDowell's record around the event was abject: 42nd, 100th, 59th, 61st, 113th, 33rd, 128th, 14th (US Open result), 87th, 65th, 127th, 43rd, 37th. 13 straight events with only the US Open a positive. I often like to find players who have displayed this sort of profile in the previous year and enter this year in better shape - my spread bet on Allenby last week was on a similar premise. McDowell missed the cut at the players due largely to his putting. His game tee to green is actually very encouraging. In the last 4 events, McDowell's driving accuracy reads 1st, 1st, 4th, 1st. Wow. 28th in greens last time out and back with real incentive this week, I believe McDowell can again contend.
Aaron Baddeley has a great recent record at Riviera and I like the link here as it is arguably the most representable challenge to this week on tour. In his last 5 starts in California, Baddeley has finished 6th, 1st, 27th, 4th and 11th. Baddeley started this season well but fell away between the Shell Houston (week 13) and the Crowne Plaza (Week 21) with nothing better than 40th However, at the Memorial last time out, Baddeley started well and finished a solid 9th. 25th and 26th for putts in the last two events on Bent greens, Baddeley will cope better than most on these greens. The hint at a return to form at a huge 125/1 makes this a highly appealing price.
So, my first ever advised 1000/1 tip. Definitely fishing here huh? William Hill's pointless pricing on outsiders aside (in which all players are lower than other bookies in price), Harman is 400s with several other layers. the main reason I have taken a punt on this crazy outsider is his performance in the 2004 US Junior champs here. Harman shot 66-67 to finish as the only player under par and a winner by 8 strokes. Of course, the course has changed, but clearly the basic attributes fitted his eye well last year in the same way that it did Furyk in 1998. Harman's form has been fairly poor after a good start to the season, but last time out his driving was much improved (10th accuracy, 28th distance). Amidst an average Players Championship display, Harman did shoot the 5th best round in round 2. A real long range punt this one, but a good start could see him cause a massive shock and challenge for a place.
Finally, my super-sub Ian Poulter. I said all I really wanted and needed to in my player guide posted earlier today "On the tight, tree-lined Wentworth track, Poulter finished 10th a couple of weeks ago, improving upon his best effort around the track. I want somebody who can putt on hard fast bentgrass surfaces this week and the man who has been 10th, 27th and 3rd in the last 3 Masters will do for me. However, he makes this list for his recent form. Coming in to the vent, in a stretch that includes top notch events such as the Masters, the Players and BMW PGA Championship Poulter has the following 6 event stretch : 3rd, 7th, 29th, 15th, 25th, 10th. Pretty compelling form. The 29th was on an absolute beast of course in China and the Ballantines after was on slow putting surfaces - hardly Poulter's forté. 3rd, 7th and 21st in accuracy off the tee in his last 3 events and 13th in greens at the Players, I really expect Poulter to be grinding it near the top of the leaderboard this week."
There are obvious others to consider such as Phil (I am worried about Phil), Rose, Dufner, Molinari and Petterson, but I am very happy with my team
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Sunday, 10 June 2012
Golf tips - FedEx St Jude Final round selection
Hi all,
2pts EW Robert Allenby at 14/1 (various : 3 places 1/4 odds).
Time constraints over the weekend have stopped me from posting any midpoint considerations. This is a real frustration as the midpoint selections have been showing up well of late with the likes of Jason Dufner (9/2 winner and Dicky Pride at 50/1, placed) yielding rewards last time out.
However, I have had a long look at the final round and believe the above price does stand out as value.
Firstly, it looks as though our outright selections are dead in the water, barring a course record from Hearn or Estes. Since 2001, no player has ever placed from as low as 39th in this event, which is where both Hearn and Estes are placed after round 3. David Howser's charge from 37th to 5th in 2002 is my only hope, with all other placed finishers having been in the top 25 before the start of round 4.
I tipped Allenby up on spreadex and he is threatening to do too well. Allenby was added due to his great consistency, with 6 out of 7 finishes here being in the top 17. Spreadex had his predicted position at 46, which, allied to signs of improving game, made this a worthy bet. Allenby is currently in 5th, which is worth around 8 points profit at the advised 0.2pt stake.
A quick word on the likely winner in this event. From 2001, players have been in the following position after round 3, before going on to win : 1st, 9th, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 6th, 4th, 7th, 1st, 3rd, 2nd. Only 4 times has the leader actually gone on to win in 11 years. We have 3 leaders here of course. Nick O'Hern closed with 68 in 2009 and 66 in 2011. 66 probably wins. However, both scores delivered only midfield finishes. The pressure will be entirely different today. O'Hearn has not challenge for a win on the final day for some time. It will be tough for him.
Davis Love III is interesting, as he certainly fits the bill for being over 30 (all winners wince 2001 have been over 30). In 2005, he finished 4th having entered the final round 4th. His final round ranks have been OK if unspectacular in the last couple of years and he has ranked 8th, 37th and 20th for round 4 in the three times he has got that far year to date. He might not be far away at the end.
John Merrick has been 7 out of 7 this year for what I would midfield final rounds. Not terrible, but not great either. The last time Merrick truly contended going in to the final round? Here, last year. Merrick ranked 55th that day, shot 72 and fell from 3rd to 11th. In 3 attempts here, he has never broken 70 in round 4. However, 3rd after 3 rounds last and 1st after 3 this shows he has played the course generally very well. 11/1 is not entirely without appeal.
6 players sit a shot further back and I will talk you through each of those from my perspective.
Dustin Johnson is back and clearly fit again. This is quite some debut for Johnson here and he is a class act. Perhaps understandably, Johnson decelerated over the weekend on his return at the Memorial. I do see enough instances of Johnson getting hot in round 3 only to then meander a little in round 4. He did this last year in the Deutsche, the Open (famously), the US Open, the Byron, and the WGC Cadillac. That he can win is unquestioned, but I have just enough doubts at 11/2.
Robert Allenby actually has a tremendous round 4 record here and 3 places at 14/1 holds appeal. In 6 made cuts, Allenby has shot 66, 66, 70, 65, 69 and 67 on the final day. As I already mentioned, all of those finishes are top 17 finishes too. With the 65 in 2009 vaulting him in to a play-ff, which he lost to Justin Leonard. He was 23rd after round 3, so can clearly get hot and contend here. Allenby has not won on tour for years and many will remember his final hole collapse to fall back in to a marathon play-off to John Huh at Mayakoba, which he ultimately lost. However, it is easy to forget that his round was sensational before that. Allenby has a history of dialling in in round 3 and following it up with another good round 4. the following figures show Allenby's round 3 ranks where he has been inside the top 15 scorers and in contention, with his round 4 rank in brackets in the last two years : 11 (4), 2 (6), 11 (12), 8, (9), 15 (3). Only 5 samples to go from, but it does seem that the choker tag is perhaps a little undeserved. I am going to play him outright.
I have no evidence at all that Kisner stays in the place positions In fact, I have a lot confidence he doesn't. Kisner is generally dire in round 4 and fell away from good finishes in the Children's Miracle, McGladrey and PGA qualifying events at the end of last year, when in decent general form. I only wish I could see an 18 hole matchbet to oppose him with. Dustin Johnson and Robert Allenby are paired in his 3 ball and I am hesitant about calling the winner in that duel. However, with Dustin 13/10 and Allenby 9/5, I would not deter anybody from dutching the 2.
Chad Campbell finally did something here last year, placing 32nd with a final round 69. Campbell is playing well this week, but it is a real leap of faith that he jumps from the pack to prevail. His Open Championship 5th place featured an excellent final round but I can not entertain 16/1, which is only 2 points higher than the clearly better Allenby in terms of form and experience.
Kevin Stadler is a fine ballstriker and if that holds up for another round, he has claims here. Stadler has 9 top 26 finishes this year and is playing consistently well. In 5 of those 9 events, he has been in the top 11 for final day scoring. Those who have highligted 2 faltering weekends when in 2nd place at halfway are premature with Stadler. With final rounds of 67 and 69 here previously, the 18/1 with Sporting bet holds some appeal, but at only 3 places, I am just put off.
Finally Rory. His price is no better than 11/4. I don't even need to check stats to know I am not playing those odds for a frequent challenger who infrequently wins. Mcilroy's week so far is similar to his 2010 appearance where he went gently backwards over the weekend, falling from 10th to 29th. With so many top 10 finishes, he has a great chance if he plays anything like his best game, but I will sit this one out.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
2pts EW Robert Allenby at 14/1 (various : 3 places 1/4 odds).
Time constraints over the weekend have stopped me from posting any midpoint considerations. This is a real frustration as the midpoint selections have been showing up well of late with the likes of Jason Dufner (9/2 winner and Dicky Pride at 50/1, placed) yielding rewards last time out.
However, I have had a long look at the final round and believe the above price does stand out as value.
Firstly, it looks as though our outright selections are dead in the water, barring a course record from Hearn or Estes. Since 2001, no player has ever placed from as low as 39th in this event, which is where both Hearn and Estes are placed after round 3. David Howser's charge from 37th to 5th in 2002 is my only hope, with all other placed finishers having been in the top 25 before the start of round 4.
I tipped Allenby up on spreadex and he is threatening to do too well. Allenby was added due to his great consistency, with 6 out of 7 finishes here being in the top 17. Spreadex had his predicted position at 46, which, allied to signs of improving game, made this a worthy bet. Allenby is currently in 5th, which is worth around 8 points profit at the advised 0.2pt stake.
A quick word on the likely winner in this event. From 2001, players have been in the following position after round 3, before going on to win : 1st, 9th, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 6th, 4th, 7th, 1st, 3rd, 2nd. Only 4 times has the leader actually gone on to win in 11 years. We have 3 leaders here of course. Nick O'Hern closed with 68 in 2009 and 66 in 2011. 66 probably wins. However, both scores delivered only midfield finishes. The pressure will be entirely different today. O'Hearn has not challenge for a win on the final day for some time. It will be tough for him.
Davis Love III is interesting, as he certainly fits the bill for being over 30 (all winners wince 2001 have been over 30). In 2005, he finished 4th having entered the final round 4th. His final round ranks have been OK if unspectacular in the last couple of years and he has ranked 8th, 37th and 20th for round 4 in the three times he has got that far year to date. He might not be far away at the end.
John Merrick has been 7 out of 7 this year for what I would midfield final rounds. Not terrible, but not great either. The last time Merrick truly contended going in to the final round? Here, last year. Merrick ranked 55th that day, shot 72 and fell from 3rd to 11th. In 3 attempts here, he has never broken 70 in round 4. However, 3rd after 3 rounds last and 1st after 3 this shows he has played the course generally very well. 11/1 is not entirely without appeal.
6 players sit a shot further back and I will talk you through each of those from my perspective.
Dustin Johnson is back and clearly fit again. This is quite some debut for Johnson here and he is a class act. Perhaps understandably, Johnson decelerated over the weekend on his return at the Memorial. I do see enough instances of Johnson getting hot in round 3 only to then meander a little in round 4. He did this last year in the Deutsche, the Open (famously), the US Open, the Byron, and the WGC Cadillac. That he can win is unquestioned, but I have just enough doubts at 11/2.
Robert Allenby actually has a tremendous round 4 record here and 3 places at 14/1 holds appeal. In 6 made cuts, Allenby has shot 66, 66, 70, 65, 69 and 67 on the final day. As I already mentioned, all of those finishes are top 17 finishes too. With the 65 in 2009 vaulting him in to a play-ff, which he lost to Justin Leonard. He was 23rd after round 3, so can clearly get hot and contend here. Allenby has not won on tour for years and many will remember his final hole collapse to fall back in to a marathon play-off to John Huh at Mayakoba, which he ultimately lost. However, it is easy to forget that his round was sensational before that. Allenby has a history of dialling in in round 3 and following it up with another good round 4. the following figures show Allenby's round 3 ranks where he has been inside the top 15 scorers and in contention, with his round 4 rank in brackets in the last two years : 11 (4), 2 (6), 11 (12), 8, (9), 15 (3). Only 5 samples to go from, but it does seem that the choker tag is perhaps a little undeserved. I am going to play him outright.
I have no evidence at all that Kisner stays in the place positions In fact, I have a lot confidence he doesn't. Kisner is generally dire in round 4 and fell away from good finishes in the Children's Miracle, McGladrey and PGA qualifying events at the end of last year, when in decent general form. I only wish I could see an 18 hole matchbet to oppose him with. Dustin Johnson and Robert Allenby are paired in his 3 ball and I am hesitant about calling the winner in that duel. However, with Dustin 13/10 and Allenby 9/5, I would not deter anybody from dutching the 2.
Chad Campbell finally did something here last year, placing 32nd with a final round 69. Campbell is playing well this week, but it is a real leap of faith that he jumps from the pack to prevail. His Open Championship 5th place featured an excellent final round but I can not entertain 16/1, which is only 2 points higher than the clearly better Allenby in terms of form and experience.
Kevin Stadler is a fine ballstriker and if that holds up for another round, he has claims here. Stadler has 9 top 26 finishes this year and is playing consistently well. In 5 of those 9 events, he has been in the top 11 for final day scoring. Those who have highligted 2 faltering weekends when in 2nd place at halfway are premature with Stadler. With final rounds of 67 and 69 here previously, the 18/1 with Sporting bet holds some appeal, but at only 3 places, I am just put off.
Finally Rory. His price is no better than 11/4. I don't even need to check stats to know I am not playing those odds for a frequent challenger who infrequently wins. Mcilroy's week so far is similar to his 2010 appearance where he went gently backwards over the weekend, falling from 10th to 29th. With so many top 10 finishes, he has a great chance if he plays anything like his best game, but I will sit this one out.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Saturday, 9 June 2012
OneBet Racing Selections - 10th June
10th June
Worcester
14.00 Clever Dick 4/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
14.30 Wait No More 9/4 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.00 Eastlake NAP - EVE 4pt Win -4PTS
15.30 Amuse Me 5/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.00 Blue Hills NB 2/1- 3pt Win NR Replaced by Ours 5/2 - 2pt Win NR
16.30 Ironical 9/2 - 2pt Win NR replaced by My Viking Bay 6/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
17.00 Aqualung 6/1 - 1pt Win -1PT
Meeting Total: -13PTS
Perth
14.10 Next Exit NAP - 8/11 - 4pt Win -4PTS
14.40 Blazin White Face 3/1 -2pt Win -2PTS
15.10 Lord Redsgirth NB 11/10 -3pt Win -3PTS
15.40 Benluna 7/1 - 1pt Win -1PT
16.10 Cootehill 10/1 - 1pt ew +1.5PTS
16.40 Lockedinthepocket 4/1 -2pt Win -2PTS
17.10 Piper Hill 2/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
Perth - Tasty Treble (EW) -Jason McGuire - Hurraboru, Lord Redsgirth, Piper Hill 25/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
Meeting Total:-14.5
Daily Total -27.5PTS
Worcester
14.00 Clever Dick 4/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
14.30 Wait No More 9/4 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.00 Eastlake NAP - EVE 4pt Win -4PTS
15.30 Amuse Me 5/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.00 Blue Hills NB 2/1- 3pt Win NR Replaced by Ours 5/2 - 2pt Win NR
16.30 Ironical 9/2 - 2pt Win NR replaced by My Viking Bay 6/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
17.00 Aqualung 6/1 - 1pt Win -1PT
Meeting Total: -13PTS
Perth
14.10 Next Exit NAP - 8/11 - 4pt Win -4PTS
14.40 Blazin White Face 3/1 -2pt Win -2PTS
15.10 Lord Redsgirth NB 11/10 -3pt Win -3PTS
15.40 Benluna 7/1 - 1pt Win -1PT
16.10 Cootehill 10/1 - 1pt ew +1.5PTS
16.40 Lockedinthepocket 4/1 -2pt Win -2PTS
17.10 Piper Hill 2/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
Perth - Tasty Treble (EW) -Jason McGuire - Hurraboru, Lord Redsgirth, Piper Hill 25/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
Meeting Total:-14.5
Daily Total -27.5PTS
Friday, 8 June 2012
OneBet Racing Selections - 9th June
9th June
Hexham
13.50 The Rodeo Clown 5/2 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
14.25 Sean Airgead 13/2 - 1pt ew 2nd +1.2PTS
15.00 Treehouse 8/1 - 1pt ew Lost -2pts
15.35 Dr Flynn 2/1 -2pt Win WON@3/1 +6PTS
16.05 Dilizan Eve - 2pt Win WON@11/10+2.2PTS
16.40 Mon Chevalier 15/8 - 3pt Win LOST -3PTS
17.15 Langley House 6/1 - 1pt Win LOST -1PT
Meeting Total: +1.4PTS
Worcester
14.10 Sagredo 7/2 - 2pt Win WON@4/1 +8PTS
14.45 Like Minded 11/4 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
15.20 Swing Bill 6/1 -1pt Win LOST -1PT
15.50 My Lad Percy 4/1 -2pt Win WON+8PTS
16.25 Native Breeze 5/1 -2pt Win LOST -2PTS
17.00 Midnight Tuesday 15/8 - 3pt Win LOST -3PTS
17.35 Fcast Martial Law, Bens Moor, Pearls Legend 15/1 - 1pt Win LOST -1PT
18.05 According to Trev 9/2 - 2pt Win WON +9PTS
Meeting Total: +16PTS
Daily Total: +17.4 PTS
Hexham
13.50 The Rodeo Clown 5/2 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
14.25 Sean Airgead 13/2 - 1pt ew 2nd +1.2PTS
15.00 Treehouse 8/1 - 1pt ew Lost -2pts
15.35 Dr Flynn 2/1 -2pt Win WON@3/1 +6PTS
16.05 Dilizan Eve - 2pt Win WON@11/10+2.2PTS
16.40 Mon Chevalier 15/8 - 3pt Win LOST -3PTS
17.15 Langley House 6/1 - 1pt Win LOST -1PT
Meeting Total: +1.4PTS
Worcester
14.10 Sagredo 7/2 - 2pt Win WON@4/1 +8PTS
14.45 Like Minded 11/4 - 2pt Win LOST -2PTS
15.20 Swing Bill 6/1 -1pt Win LOST -1PT
15.50 My Lad Percy 4/1 -2pt Win WON+8PTS
16.25 Native Breeze 5/1 -2pt Win LOST -2PTS
17.00 Midnight Tuesday 15/8 - 3pt Win LOST -3PTS
17.35 Fcast Martial Law, Bens Moor, Pearls Legend 15/1 - 1pt Win LOST -1PT
18.05 According to Trev 9/2 - 2pt Win WON +9PTS
Meeting Total: +16PTS
Daily Total: +17.4 PTS
Thursday, 7 June 2012
US Open Outright selections
Tip made Thursday 7th June
1pt EW Sean O'Hair at 150/1 (Bet365)
As mentioned on Twitter, all other layers have O'Hair at 100/1 or lower. I will write more about my selections next week, but 150s on a man who has won on Bent surfaces and plays tight, tough courses well is a real value proposition at the price. It may be that 6 places become available next week, but I am fairly sure this price will disappear so am taking it now
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad
OneBet Racing Selections 7th June
7th June
Punchestown
17.40 Drive on Regardless 4/1 -2pt Win WON +8PTS
18.10 Champagne Agent 4/1 -2pt Win -2PTS
18.45 Super Collider 6/1 -1pt Win -2PTS
19.20 Shot from the hip 9/4 -2pt Win -2PTS
19.50 Nearest the Pin 3/1 -2pt Win NR - Replacement Horse Double Seven 10/1 -1pt ew (OneBet Longshot - Major Harry 66/1 0.5Pts ew) -3PTS
20.20 Rudi Trucker 11/4 -2pt Win -2PTS
20.50 Summer Star 5/2 -2pt Win -2PTS
Meeting Total:-5PTS
Punchestown
17.40 Drive on Regardless 4/1 -2pt Win WON +8PTS
18.10 Champagne Agent 4/1 -2pt Win -2PTS
18.45 Super Collider 6/1 -1pt Win -2PTS
19.20 Shot from the hip 9/4 -2pt Win -2PTS
19.50 Nearest the Pin 3/1 -2pt Win NR - Replacement Horse Double Seven 10/1 -1pt ew (OneBet Longshot - Major Harry 66/1 0.5Pts ew) -3PTS
20.20 Rudi Trucker 11/4 -2pt Win -2PTS
20.50 Summer Star 5/2 -2pt Win -2PTS
Meeting Total:-5PTS
Wednesday, 6 June 2012
OneBet Racing Selections -6th June
6th June
Cartmel
14.10 Ghabeesh 11/8 - 2pt Win -2PTS
14.40 Hidden Horizons 2/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.15 Hathamore 11/4 - 2pt Win -2PTS (Pumboo 16/1-0.5pts e/w - backed with B365 on 5th June) +1.2PTS
15.50 General Hardi 6/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.25 Oranger 12/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
16.55 Pasture Bay 9/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
17.25 Jolly Roger 4/1 -2pt Win +8PTS , Stanley Bridge 12/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
Meeting Total:-2.8PTS
Cartmel
14.10 Ghabeesh 11/8 - 2pt Win -2PTS
14.40 Hidden Horizons 2/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
15.15 Hathamore 11/4 - 2pt Win -2PTS (Pumboo 16/1-0.5pts e/w - backed with B365 on 5th June) +1.2PTS
15.50 General Hardi 6/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.25 Oranger 12/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
16.55 Pasture Bay 9/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
17.25 Jolly Roger 4/1 -2pt Win +8PTS , Stanley Bridge 12/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
Meeting Total:-2.8PTS
Tuesday, 5 June 2012
Golf Tips - Fedex St Jude Classic
Fedex St Jude Outright Selections
Spreadex selection
Robert Allenby 0.2 sell at 46 (spreadex)
Outright selections
1pt EW Joe Durant at 100/1 (Various)
1pt EW David Hearn at 125/1 (Various)
Previously advised
2pts EW David Toms at 33/1 (Now a best price of 25s), advised in the course form guide published on Monday http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-fedex-st-jude-classic-course.html
1pt EW Bob Estes at 80/1 (Various), advised on Twitter.
The course
The St Jude Classic at TPC Southwind, Memphis is a difficult event to unpick this week. In its usual place on tour as the precursor to the US Open, it is difficult to know exactly how the leading contenders will approach this week. Whilst always useful to go in to a Major Championship in demonstrable good form, the merits of winning or challenging in the week prior are questionable. First is the obvious mental and physical exertion associated with challenging at the business end of the tournament. Second is the media hype associated with being one of the form men going in to the year's 2nd major and added pressure on a golfer to follow up.
A quirk I noticed in glancing at previous winners is a strong association with Texas. In the last 11 years, players born or raised in Texas have won in 2001 (Estes), 2005/2008 (Leonard), 2006 (Maggert), 2009 (Gay) and 2011 (Frazar). 6 out of the 11 winners in that time have strong Texas links. If we add the other 5 winners in to the mix (Mattiace, Austin, Westwood, Toms twice), then we see that no players from the West coast have won here in that time. Perhaps it won't be John Daly's week here then. The other thing you will notice is that all of these players were over 30 when they won. Experience is a desired trait here.
More important on this tight par 70 bermudagrass greened track is the ability to pay accurately around the course. Driving distance is far from the most important attribute here. Harrison Frazar actually finished 6th for driving distance last year, but you then have to scroll to Jhonattan Vegas in T32nd to find the next player to be in the top 10 in this category. Accuracy from the tee is important, but king here is hitting greens and having the ability to putt well and scramble well when required. The top 4 here last year were 8th, 2nd, 18th and 1st respectively for greens hit. At only 73% greens hit by the stat leader last year (Villegas), TPC Southwind ranked as one of the toughest on tour in this category. Clearly, the winner come Sunday will have dialled in their iron game better than most if not all.
The selections
Zach Johnson is favourite this week and rightly so. With a pair of second places and a win last time out in his last 4 events, there is little question that Johnson is dialled in right now. With a Ryder cup place now within his sights, Johnson can ill afford to let up either. The question is whether single figure quotes can be backed. I am not convinced. Firstly, Johnson, despite his impeccable recent form is not a person to trust to stay hot for long. I am well aware that I raised this as a reason for ignoring 12/1 last week which proved costly. However, Johnson is a player who often performs in spells and I simply can not trust a single figure quote here. My other consideration is the US Open in the following week. Johnson has a pretty abject record in the US Open, but may feel that the tighter Olympic track could offer a chance for him to really contend. I do wonder if he will be fully focussed on winning here.
Rory McIlroy has a slightly similar feel to Tiger last week for me. Tiger had performed pretty poorly in the Masters, Wells Fargo Championship and Players Championship, before winning in impressive style last week. In the same period, McIlroy has missed 3 cuts and added this event as an attempt to tune up ahead of his US Open title defence. It could be that Rory dials in here and walks off with the event, but I am far from convinced that he is playing accurately enough to prosper here. Again, I have to leave the 11/1 quotes.
I advised David Toms with a confident 2pt EW bet yesterday when Ladbrokes were a stand out 33/1. That they are now hiding at 20/1 is indicative I believe of how wrong that price was. 25s is still generally available elsewhere, however, and that is still worth taking. I mentioned Toms' record here in my course form preview, which includes 2 victories, 2 runners up finishes, 3rd, 4th and 10th in the last 10 visits here. Toms is in the right place to challenge again this week, despite a missed cut when defending his Crowne Plaza title last time out. It was Toms' putter that let him down that week (bentgrass). However, for the first two rounds, he was right near the top of the sheets for driving accuracy and greens hit. Previously on bermuda at the Players, Toms was 27th in putting. I really think that he has an excellent chance here.
I have convinced myself also that Bob Estes is worth a play. 3rd in my course form ranks, I believe I said all I needed to in my course form preview "1st in 2001, 3rd in 2003, 2nd in 2004 and 8th in both 2005 and 2010 is noteworthy. Add in 4 further top 30 finishes and only 2 MCs and you have a player who likes this course. With only early prices to date, I am underwhelmed to see only 80/1 available. Question is, do we see anything in Estes' current form to suggest he can fire again here? Well, there is something in his recent game that suggests he is worth considering. In 2011, Estes' stop start season consisted on only 13 events. This year, Estes will be playing his 13th event this week. Estes MC last time out at the Crowne Plaza and finished only 41st at the Byron Nelson. However, Estes had the 10th best round there in round 2 and the best round in round 3 and has never played either event particularly well. 15th at the Players (14th in putts on Bermuda) prior to that was his best finish there so there is something there. I would like to see triple figures, but he has my attention."
Estes is well worth a play this week.
Harrison Frazar's win in 2011 at 275/1 showed that big priced winners can be found here. Indeed, in 2010, it was only the then unheralded Robert Garrigus dropping 3 shots on the 72nd hole, which allowed Westwood in to a play-off that he eventually won. Given this, I am happy to look further down the list for my final selections.
Joe Durant gets the nod at 100/1 for me this week. Durant was a fast finishing 3rd last time out at the Byron Nelson. Indeed, he led the round ranks for both rounds 3 and 4. Durant certainly fits my over 30 brief as a tour veteran in his 49th year. I am drawn to Durant for his impeccable accuracy generally and noticeably in recent events. In the last 4 events, Durant has been 16th, 1st, 13th and 3rd for driving accuracy and 31st, 5th, 9th and 21st (and 8th before those events also) for greens hit. Put simply, Durant is the type of player who will do the simple things well and that is important here. Durant only has a 25th in 2007 as any recent hint that he can play well here. However, I believe there will be a big price or two near the top the leaderboard come Sunday and Durant is certainly one who can. I hope his US Open qualifying efforts have not taken their toll.
My final vote goes to David Hearn. who actually ranks 6th in my tournament predictor ratings and is quoted at 125/1 this week. Hearn is actually 10th best in the field using my usual 3 tournament form guide coming in to the event and again is really dialled in of late in accuracy from tee to green. In the last two events, Hearn has posted 4 rounds in the top 15 best in the field. Although 47th last year is hardly irresistible, Hearn sat within the top 20 after round 3 and was only denied a good finish after falling away on the final day. Indeed, Hearn and Villegas sat together on -2 going in to the final day. Villegas shot 64 to finish 3rd and Hearn went in entirely the opposite direction. Adept at keeping bogeys from the card and a useful scrambler, Hearn will go well this week if he can find a better groove with the putter. I am happy to chance that he does.
I am also adding Allenby in the Spreadex market. As I mentioned in my course form guide, 6 top 17 finishes out of 7 is enough for me to make a play. 0.2pt sell at 46.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Spreadex selection
Robert Allenby 0.2 sell at 46 (spreadex)
Outright selections
1pt EW Joe Durant at 100/1 (Various)
1pt EW David Hearn at 125/1 (Various)
Previously advised
2pts EW David Toms at 33/1 (Now a best price of 25s), advised in the course form guide published on Monday http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-fedex-st-jude-classic-course.html
1pt EW Bob Estes at 80/1 (Various), advised on Twitter.
The course
The St Jude Classic at TPC Southwind, Memphis is a difficult event to unpick this week. In its usual place on tour as the precursor to the US Open, it is difficult to know exactly how the leading contenders will approach this week. Whilst always useful to go in to a Major Championship in demonstrable good form, the merits of winning or challenging in the week prior are questionable. First is the obvious mental and physical exertion associated with challenging at the business end of the tournament. Second is the media hype associated with being one of the form men going in to the year's 2nd major and added pressure on a golfer to follow up.
A quirk I noticed in glancing at previous winners is a strong association with Texas. In the last 11 years, players born or raised in Texas have won in 2001 (Estes), 2005/2008 (Leonard), 2006 (Maggert), 2009 (Gay) and 2011 (Frazar). 6 out of the 11 winners in that time have strong Texas links. If we add the other 5 winners in to the mix (Mattiace, Austin, Westwood, Toms twice), then we see that no players from the West coast have won here in that time. Perhaps it won't be John Daly's week here then. The other thing you will notice is that all of these players were over 30 when they won. Experience is a desired trait here.
More important on this tight par 70 bermudagrass greened track is the ability to pay accurately around the course. Driving distance is far from the most important attribute here. Harrison Frazar actually finished 6th for driving distance last year, but you then have to scroll to Jhonattan Vegas in T32nd to find the next player to be in the top 10 in this category. Accuracy from the tee is important, but king here is hitting greens and having the ability to putt well and scramble well when required. The top 4 here last year were 8th, 2nd, 18th and 1st respectively for greens hit. At only 73% greens hit by the stat leader last year (Villegas), TPC Southwind ranked as one of the toughest on tour in this category. Clearly, the winner come Sunday will have dialled in their iron game better than most if not all.
The selections
Zach Johnson is favourite this week and rightly so. With a pair of second places and a win last time out in his last 4 events, there is little question that Johnson is dialled in right now. With a Ryder cup place now within his sights, Johnson can ill afford to let up either. The question is whether single figure quotes can be backed. I am not convinced. Firstly, Johnson, despite his impeccable recent form is not a person to trust to stay hot for long. I am well aware that I raised this as a reason for ignoring 12/1 last week which proved costly. However, Johnson is a player who often performs in spells and I simply can not trust a single figure quote here. My other consideration is the US Open in the following week. Johnson has a pretty abject record in the US Open, but may feel that the tighter Olympic track could offer a chance for him to really contend. I do wonder if he will be fully focussed on winning here.
Rory McIlroy has a slightly similar feel to Tiger last week for me. Tiger had performed pretty poorly in the Masters, Wells Fargo Championship and Players Championship, before winning in impressive style last week. In the same period, McIlroy has missed 3 cuts and added this event as an attempt to tune up ahead of his US Open title defence. It could be that Rory dials in here and walks off with the event, but I am far from convinced that he is playing accurately enough to prosper here. Again, I have to leave the 11/1 quotes.
I advised David Toms with a confident 2pt EW bet yesterday when Ladbrokes were a stand out 33/1. That they are now hiding at 20/1 is indicative I believe of how wrong that price was. 25s is still generally available elsewhere, however, and that is still worth taking. I mentioned Toms' record here in my course form preview, which includes 2 victories, 2 runners up finishes, 3rd, 4th and 10th in the last 10 visits here. Toms is in the right place to challenge again this week, despite a missed cut when defending his Crowne Plaza title last time out. It was Toms' putter that let him down that week (bentgrass). However, for the first two rounds, he was right near the top of the sheets for driving accuracy and greens hit. Previously on bermuda at the Players, Toms was 27th in putting. I really think that he has an excellent chance here.
I have convinced myself also that Bob Estes is worth a play. 3rd in my course form ranks, I believe I said all I needed to in my course form preview "1st in 2001, 3rd in 2003, 2nd in 2004 and 8th in both 2005 and 2010 is noteworthy. Add in 4 further top 30 finishes and only 2 MCs and you have a player who likes this course. With only early prices to date, I am underwhelmed to see only 80/1 available. Question is, do we see anything in Estes' current form to suggest he can fire again here? Well, there is something in his recent game that suggests he is worth considering. In 2011, Estes' stop start season consisted on only 13 events. This year, Estes will be playing his 13th event this week. Estes MC last time out at the Crowne Plaza and finished only 41st at the Byron Nelson. However, Estes had the 10th best round there in round 2 and the best round in round 3 and has never played either event particularly well. 15th at the Players (14th in putts on Bermuda) prior to that was his best finish there so there is something there. I would like to see triple figures, but he has my attention."
Estes is well worth a play this week.
Harrison Frazar's win in 2011 at 275/1 showed that big priced winners can be found here. Indeed, in 2010, it was only the then unheralded Robert Garrigus dropping 3 shots on the 72nd hole, which allowed Westwood in to a play-off that he eventually won. Given this, I am happy to look further down the list for my final selections.
Joe Durant gets the nod at 100/1 for me this week. Durant was a fast finishing 3rd last time out at the Byron Nelson. Indeed, he led the round ranks for both rounds 3 and 4. Durant certainly fits my over 30 brief as a tour veteran in his 49th year. I am drawn to Durant for his impeccable accuracy generally and noticeably in recent events. In the last 4 events, Durant has been 16th, 1st, 13th and 3rd for driving accuracy and 31st, 5th, 9th and 21st (and 8th before those events also) for greens hit. Put simply, Durant is the type of player who will do the simple things well and that is important here. Durant only has a 25th in 2007 as any recent hint that he can play well here. However, I believe there will be a big price or two near the top the leaderboard come Sunday and Durant is certainly one who can. I hope his US Open qualifying efforts have not taken their toll.
My final vote goes to David Hearn. who actually ranks 6th in my tournament predictor ratings and is quoted at 125/1 this week. Hearn is actually 10th best in the field using my usual 3 tournament form guide coming in to the event and again is really dialled in of late in accuracy from tee to green. In the last two events, Hearn has posted 4 rounds in the top 15 best in the field. Although 47th last year is hardly irresistible, Hearn sat within the top 20 after round 3 and was only denied a good finish after falling away on the final day. Indeed, Hearn and Villegas sat together on -2 going in to the final day. Villegas shot 64 to finish 3rd and Hearn went in entirely the opposite direction. Adept at keeping bogeys from the card and a useful scrambler, Hearn will go well this week if he can find a better groove with the putter. I am happy to chance that he does.
I am also adding Allenby in the Spreadex market. As I mentioned in my course form guide, 6 top 17 finishes out of 7 is enough for me to make a play. 0.2pt sell at 46.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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