Humana Challenge 2011 Golf tournament tips

Tourney Bets

Humana Challenge
0.2pts EW Jonas Blixt at 300/1 (Various)
0.2pts EW JJ Killeen at 200/1 (Various)
0.2pts EW Sung-Hoon Kang at 250/1 (Various)
0.2pts EW Jason Kokrak at 200/1 (Various)
0.2pts EW John Merrick at 150/1 (Coral, next best 125s various, but Ladbrokes has 6 places)
0.2pts EW Tommy Gainey at 150/1 (Various)
0.2pts EW Jhonattan Vegas at 66/1 (Various)
*Note.  Although none of the odds above are available at Ladbrokes, they are paying 6 places this week, which may hold some appeal if you are chasing the places with big odds such as those above.  However, I am advising at 5 places.

US Tour retrospective - Sony Open
My (what will become) usual synopsis on the previous week's results.  De Jonge and Rollins both finished -9, 4 shots from 1st and just outside the places.  De Jonge started the day at -10 and right in the mix, propelled by a best of the day 62 in round 2.  As is often the case with De Jonge, his final round was poor and he was +3 through 7 before rallying a little from there.  At 150/1, a fine value shout, but just fell short.  Rollins I think will be kicking himself that he never challenged for the win.  He shot best of the day in round 4 to charge up the field, but his whole tournament was compromised on the 1st hole of round 3, where a triple bogey saw him fall well out of contention.  He actually played the last 35 holes in -10 and the winner finished on -13.  Undoubtedly what might have been for him.  If he arrives next year at a similar price and with a similar build up, you can be sure I will be on him.

Humana Challenge
So, 7 golfers with only 1 priced below 150/1.  Am I mad?  Quite possibly.  I am only going to post a relatively brief rationalé for my tips here, because the tournament is a little too unpredictable for form lines and pushing any player with real confidence for me.

So, we have a course that is relatively short by today's standards and we have a pro-am.  The course is also extremely generous off the tee, benefitting bombers.  The pro-am nature adds another random factor that means I am not willing to risk more than 3 points on the event.  In its previous incarnation as the Bob Hope Classic, this tournament was a rather tedious 5 round event.  We are at 4 rounds this year, with the final round finally shedding the celebs and letting the pros shoot for the title.  Looking at form lines, I can see that more than possibly any other event, many in the field have had a story to tell about a decent result at some time in previous years.  So, it makes little sense for me to be too gung-ho about any individual player.

If you asked me to pick the most likely to win this week, I would actually suggest the likes of Laird, Haas, Kuchar and Mickelson have the best credentials.  However, I am not going to risk any money on short odds players getting it done this week, because I do not believe they represent value in this event.

I have decided to go for 7 golfers, all 0.2pts EW, but all who share a standout ability to go low if they get hot.  Vegas is by far my lowest tip and I happy to have as cover a man who won this event last year, has been in decent form in the last couple of months and will hopefully be doing his utmost to defend his title this week.  Blixt, Killeen and Kokrak all graudated from the Nationwide Tour last year and all shared a headline ability to go extremely low and land big results.  Vegas came off the Nationwide tour last year and won big here at big odds.  For me, the three listed all have potential to similarly challenge if they get hot.

Kang plays this event for the first time, but I am encouraged by a tick in the box for a pro-am format, with a 2nd on the Nationwide tour last year.  In addition, Kang showed his affinity for the tour last year, with 2 very strong results in the fall season.  Another player who can shoot low, he is worth a shout.

Gainey is a player selected for his ability to go low, despite an average performance here last year.  I like the way he plays when he gets on a roll and 150s is a great price here.  Merrick finished 16th, 2nd and 26th here between 2008 and 2010 (never played 2011) and clearly can challenge if he finds his form early.  Again, 150s represents genuine value for me.

I am going to go in no more detail than that really.  I find it difficult to leave Laird in particular out of my plan due to his great form and credentials for this event, but I simply can not select an individual with any true confidence this week.  An alternative play would be to add Laird and reduce even further the investment above, but I am happy with the play selected.  I can easily see anybody being knocked out of the places this week due to the pro-am format in particular.  It is certainly worth considering the above players for a top 20 spot and I toyed with this notion myself.  However, to do that justice would probably require at least double the staking plan.  I would rather know that my maximum liability was 2.8points and shoot for a big win if it comes in.  Despite my repeated utterance that this event could go to numerous players, I am very confident that at least one of my team will be in the mix during the final round.  1 of my players MUST go low, if not more.