Farmer's Insurance Open 2011 Tips

I planned to only write a brief review for the Abu Dhabi event.  As I haven't this event will lack explanation and be tips only.

1pt EW Nick Watney 15/1 (Boylesports, 14/1 Various) - 1st in my system ranks, but 2nd in odds.
1pt EW Rickie Fowler 28/1 (Various).  - 2nd in my system ranks, 5th best odds according to book
0.5pts EW Scott Piercy 150/1 (Various) - Massive value according to my system ranks.  Consistency the question for him, but ability to challenge here beyond question for me.  On the easier North Course to start - a good first round could really set him up

1pt Rickie Fowler to beat Bubba Watson in a 72 hole matchbet at 10/11 (Various)
1pt Justin Rose to beat Ernie Els at 10/11 (Ladbrokes Only)

Overall result : Loss 5.1pts.

A frustrating results in some ways, with all 5 bets offering some promise before fading.  Nick Watney sat -7 after 2 rounds and looked ready to challenge the places at least over the weekend.  Watney is (usually) a machine in non-major events and, on a  course where he won a couple of years ago and in good moving position, I felt confident that he could push on and potentially challenge for the win that in the end was only 9 shots away.  The weekend was a major disappointment.

Fowler never quite got there all week, despite constantly threatening to go on a charge.  His customary decent start was sadly not the springboard.  I question Fowler's focus sometimes.  In glancing briefly at 1st round stats last year, Fowler was 18th or better 13 times, versus 12 times now.  On 8 occasions, he was in the top 10 after day 1.  So, to finish the year with only 4 top 10s to his name is perhaps indicative of a man who has not yet learned to discipline himself through a 4 day event.  Perhaps.  On day 4, I had early hope as he quickly went to -9, but it was not to be.  Also in the matchbet, a late Fowler bogey meant he drew with Watson.  Always frustrating to lose a 72 hole matchbet to a draw that fails late on.

Piercy started the event badly and I was almost ready to discount him at +2 approaching the turn on the "easy" course.  He managed to turn it round though and come the final day, he was 2 shots from a lucrative place given the long odds.  Quickly, he found himself in solo 4th after a fine start.  Sadly, Piercy fell away from there and failed to challenge.  Very much a case of what might have been as, with 13 holes still left, he was only 4 shots from the eventual winning total.

The other matchbet won, with Rose winning comfortably enough, despite doing little in the event.  I backed the fact that Rose is a match for Els in ball striking when playing solidly and also factored the relatively safe bet that is Els would probably be let down by the flat stick.  Els 3 putted 5 times in round 3 to confirm that.

As to the eventual winner, Snedeker was a bet I waivered on before passing.  2nd and 9th last two years with strong form last week clearly meant he had the game to challenge.  However, I thought 25s was a little tight given the field and given his recent surgery.  A shame and a name I am sure many will have backed, but not quite for me.  2 winless weeks on tour means little in fields of >100 players.  The value shots will land soon enough (I hope) to turn the situation around