Tourney bets
Tips
Hyundai Tournament of Champions
0.5pt EW Gary Woodland at 18/1. Loss 1pt
0.5pt EW Martin Laird at 22/1 Finished placed EW Profit 2.25pts
0.5pt EW Jhonattan Vegas at 40/1 Loss 1pt
Hyundai TOC overall profit 0.25pts
Africa Open
0.5pt EW JBE Kruger 1st round leader 30/1 Loss 1pt
0.5pt EW Jaco Van Zyl 18/1 Profit 1.75pts
1.5pt win Louis Ossthuizen 5/1 W Profit 7.5pts
0.2pt EW Benjamin Hebert 125/1 Loss 0.4pts
0.1pt EW Shaun Norris 1st round leader at 150/1 Loss 0.2pts
Africa Open overall Profit 7.65pts
Hyundai Tournament of Champions background
Our bets look a little further down the field for value here. Firstly, if we look at the head of the field, there is plenty enough to concern at the prices offered. At 10/1 and below are Stricker, Webb Simpson and Nick Watney. All 3 have the ability to make the sort of score required to win of course, but each were in less than stellar form at the end the 2011 season.
Stricker missed a spell of the season to injury and never really came back as strongly. 2nd last year and 10th the year before make him a tough man to ignore, but the question marks about his current demeanour make an 8/1 win and 2/1 place too short.
Webb Simpson had a stunning year and for a spell was almost a shoe-in to be in the mix last year. However, two things instantly concern. Firstly, Webb's finish to the year was not in keeping with the stunning spell of form he hit in the build up to and during the business end of the season. Secondly, both of his last two seasons suggest he needs a couple of starts to hit his stride at the start of a season. Of two non-major missed cuts last year, one was in his 2nd tournament of the year. In the first, 4 average rounds yielded a finish of 46th. A course debutant here is not necessarily definitive as he has shown up and done well often enough on debut in 2011. However, it is another reason to ignore the 8/1.
Nick Watney proved a man difficult to predict last year. However, one thing that was obvious was that in a regulation PGA tour event, the man was a top 20 machine. Clearly, Watney's average week is the equivalent of a good week for most other players. Also, his first 4 tournaments of 2011 yielded a 6th, 5th, 6th and 1st. So, how do we oppose him? Well, his last appearance here in a similarly small field yielded only 16th. Also, a 2nd in the JT shirners was the only highlight of the back end of the season for Watney and he was a strong favourite there in what was a poor field. So, we can overlook the 10s here as being a non-value price.
So, how to dissect the rest of the field? We need to find players who can fire early in the season, can hit long off the tee (rather than straight on what is a resort course with wide fairways) and can go low.
So, to our tips.
Gary Woodland had a great year in 2011, with a top 30 finish in all 4 majors and a PGA tour win. Importantly for our purposes, he had 7 top 6 finishes, 4 of which came in the first 7 tournaments - a 5th, 2nd, 6th and 1st place. Last year, Woodland was top 5 driving distance, top 10 GIR and 11th for scoring average. Looks a very solid bet as long as he starts quicker than his MC first time out last year.
Martin Laird was 3rd in 2010 at this tournament and missed the chance to try again last year. This year, after another PGA tour win, he is a better player. Laird simply loves resort courses, with the generous fairways allowing him to attack and compensate for a less than perfect game off the tee. Another with obvious claims.
Jhonattan Vegas. Vegas won on tour last year with a final round score of -27. Give him a course to attack on, and he is a genuine threat. Vegas won in February of last year again showing that early season holds no issue for him. However, following that came a period of relative anonymity which lasted most of the season. It was not until October that the next top 10 came. Significantly though, this is part of a season finish that gave plenty of encouragement both on the PGA tour and then in Asia, albeit in patches. 40/1 is a value price for this player, who seems to be back to business.
Kevin Na and Chris Kirk almost made the list, but we will leave it at those 3 in such a small field
Africa Open summary
On the face of it, a par 73 course that measures under 6,800 yards appears to be a closest to the pin competition. However, this course has wind as its ally. The forecast seems to suggest that wind will be a factor. However, the par 5s are reachable in 2 and by today's standards, some of the par 4s are extremely short, which suggests it will be birdies rather than bogey avoidance that will dominate the thoughts of the leading contenders.
If golfers can avoid trouble off the tee, then this course really is there for the taking. Last year's result highlighted that putting is actually a pretty negligible attribute. Rather, accuracy off the tee and an ability to find greens will likely lead to our winner.
Louis Ossthuizen heads the betting and I simply can not ignore his credentials here. He defends his title of last year and has been in sparkling form in the second half of 2011. He is by a long way the most consistent player in this field right now. The other obvious factor for Oosthuizen is that a coastal course subject to winds is something he can handle. Although he had the better of the conditions in Rounds 1 and 2 during his British Open win, so did a number of players in the field who would be very short priced here. Goosen is a worthy second favourite and, despite his form in South Africa over the years, he is a leap of faith right now. That said, I would not put anybody off him as his place credentials are clearly strong (and of course he can win).
Jaco Van Zyl is another who fared well last year and is always a very live threat in his home country. In addition to this, Van Zyl had a very strong year on the European tour in 2011. His last 8 European Tour events read 13, 11, 51, 11, 3, 9, 18, 22. Clearly, Van Zyl is at home and regularly competing strongly in European Tour quality fields these days. This tournament is basically a Sunshine Tour field with a sprinkling of Euro Tour regulars. Van Zyl surely challenges this week, although his conversion rate is questionable.
Benjamin Hebert had a strong spell on the Challenge Tour in 2011, winning 3 out of 5 events in the 2nd half of the year. He followed this up with a number of solid European Tour results, with a peak being a 6th place in the Madrid Masters. I am most encouraged that his relatively poor putting performance will be masked in this event. If his irons fire, he can compete in this class of field and is worth a small stake bet.
To finish, two first round leader bets. Shaun Norris almost landed 1st round EW money at big odds in Africa at the end of 2011, missing by a shot (believe me, I remember!). He finished 8th last year after a best of the day 66 in round 4. I question his ability to hold things together well enough over 4 rounds. However, this big hitter can take this course apart and bring home a good Day 1 result if he fires.
Finally, Kruger. I am nervous about this bet as Kruger can challenge for the tournament overall if he plays well. However, recent weekend failures lead me to believe this is a stronger play. His credentials here are obvious. Last year, Kruger was 8th after round 1 and a shot from the EW money. In the last 4 tournaments, he has been 3, 1, 1 and 55th after round 1. The 55 was in Hong Kong and the two 1st places in South Africa. At a higher price than his outright odds, I strongly prefer the value of this bet.
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