Abu Dhabi HSBC Tips

Abu Dhabi result - Loss 7.6 points

Post event summary.  
Well, this is definitely a case of what might have been.  There are two ways of looking at McIlroy's form of recent times.  Either, he is in great form or, he does not go on to win often enough when in contention.  I think it is both of these things.  Many are citing the 2 shot penalty in round 2 as a reason for the one shot loss but I think it is a little deeper than that.

McIlroy consistently demonstrates that he can match the play of the best in the field, but so rarely heads those fields.  He needs to develop the single-mindedness that has served Tiger so well down the years or he will never win consistently.  I think I picked the winner on ability and form, but the winner on mental strength was Robert Rock, who won very well and defied none too appealing credentials entering the event.

Charl came and went in both rounds 3 and 4, before eventually drifting away.  Luiten played very nicely from tee to green and his putter let him down.  I said I was happy to risk that his putter got hot.  It didn't.

Kaymer was a huge shock.  I didn't think he was the standout to win the event, but I am nigh on stunned to find that he was not far from last after 2 days.  It shows how difficult it can be sometimes to call these events.  


Abu Dhabi Tips
2pt Win Martin Kaymer at 13/2 (Skybet, Bodog, 6s various)
3pt Win Rory McIlroy at 7/1 (Various)
1pt Ew Charl Schwartzel at 25/1 (Ladbrokes, 22s Paddy Power and Stan James [6 places])
0.3pts EW Joost Luiten at 100/1 (Various)

My reasoning is relatively simple here.  Firstly, I simply can not omit Kaymer with a form line of 1,2,1,1 at this event.  13/2 is actually too big, even with the rest of the World's top 4, Woods, Day, Schwartzel and all the other top players in attendance.  Kaymer romped home last year - if memory serves, I recall Poulter commenting last year with McDowell that it was almost like Kaymer was on a different course, such was his utter dominance in the event.  Kaymer's round ranks last year were 6, 1, 3, 2, proving how well he played on each day of the event.  A must back.

So, despites last  all that, how can I have a bigger bet on McIlroy?  Firstly, his form line here is improving year on year, with 11th, 5th 3rd and then 2nd last year.  Also, his form at the end of last year is stunning - his last 7 tournaments read 3, 3, 2, 2, 4, 1, 11.  Like Kaymer, McIlroy surely contends this week.  The question that remains is McIlroy's putting.  Kaymer has a wonderful touch on these greens.  However, I believe McIlroy will have the edge this week in approach play, with his extra power off the tee making a key difference.  With a hot putter, I believe we have our winner.

If not the two golfers above, I really like the chances of Schwartzel to challenge here.  Long off the tee and very comfortable on these greens, Schwartzel was really let down by some pretty average irons last year.  However, last year the wayward irons did not surprise.  Schwartzel won the Joburg Open last year before placing 8th here in his next event.  However, he gave advanced warning that his irons were not were they should be ahead of the Joburg Open and carried some of this indifference to this event.  If we ignore the surprise MC at the Joburg this year, Schwartzel rivals McIlroy for recent form.  I am happy to take the 5 places at bigger odds.  Schwartzel should make a big play this week.

Finally, I like the play of backing Luiten.  An encouraging 23rd here last year, Luiten is a good fit for this event. Luiten is fast becoming one of the very best iron players on tour, with decent length off the tee also.  I am more than happy to take the chance that his putter gets hot.  For a player much better now than he was when 23rd last year and with his first tour win recently under his belt, this is a great value EW shot.