Outright Selections
2pts EW Hunter Mahan at 14/1 (Various)
1pt EW Charley Hoffman at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jerry Kelly at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Greg Owen at 125/1 (Various)
My bets were advised earlier today on twitter; I preferred to give you the tips in good time, rather than wait for the chance to write a preview. There is a follow link at the top of the page if you wish to catch the ramblings of me or my partner (@onebetUK)
OK. To this week's event. I will keep it brief, because by now, a lot of the insights that we all use for betting will have been shared already by others pundits.
For any of you yet to have a bet and just thinking of doing a quick check on players who have done well at this event in the last year or two, it is worth noting the venue here has not been used for the Canadian Open since 2006 (and 2003 before that). Then 44 year old Bob Tway prevailed in a play-off over Brad Faxon here in 2003, with 36 year old Jim Furyk winning next time round at Hamilton in 2006. Seems that experience can prevail here. Those looking at last year's winner Sean O'Hair, will also have taken encouragement in his 3rd place finish here in 2006.
Hamilton GC is a thinking man's course. Grip it and rip it does not apply here. Fairways are tight and the penalty for missing the fairway plenty severe enough for longest to be unlikely to equal best. This course is very much all about finding fairways and greens time and again. The greens are quite small here, so some importance must be placed upon scrambling too, as particularly errant players will have to be able to get up and down most of the time to keep their score ticking over. I have paid some attention to those players bent poa annua positive on the greens, but this is a lesser statistic for me this week. Give me a guy in control of his golf ball and we will not be far wrong.
Furyk won here with -14 and Tway 3 years earlier with -21. So, we want solid players who can score. the credentials of Furyk are obvious this time around, but I question whether he will dial in enough on all 4 days to post the score required. However, I am more than willing to accept I may be wrong on that one. Furyk ranks 4 in my ranks and would probably have made the team where he 8th favourite and not 4th. We can all dream sometimes.
So, to the selections.
Hunter Mahan leaps out at me this week and is the clear number one in my system ranks. The headline reason this is that Mahan has been stunning of late from tee to green. In my Lyoness Open preview (link here), observes will have noted I have also placed Mahan in a double with Chris Wood, who is placed OK at -1 after round 1 in Austria. Hunter Mahan has the following driving accuracy states in the last 4 events : 6th (British Open), 3rd, 2nd, 27th (US Open). The two strong positives in the majors are relevant here. If you can drive well at Lytham and Olympic, Hamilton will look like a nice place to relax from the tee. Well, not quite, but you get my point.
Hunter's form is not great here with a 40-odd and 60-odd last two times, but he does have some form in Canada, ranking 14th in my event ranks (4th 2004, 5th 2007, 17th 2010 the highlights). Mahan also knows how to putt on Bentgrass, winning at Bridgestone and the Shell Open in recent years, with other strong finishes along the way on bent surfaces. I also like the way his results are shaping up. Mahan usually hints at solid form before blasting in to contention and either winning or going close. Before Winning the Shell Houston earlier this year, Mahan finished 15/24/24/42. Good solid paychecks before all clicked. From the PGA last year, Mahan went 19/43/8/42 before then going 2/4. Before winning the WGC, Mahan went 37/17. He is one of those players who lulls you in to a false sense of security before landing big. I feel we have a real chance with Hunter this week.
2nd in my system ranks is Bo Van Pelt. He would almost definitely have been on my team had the 30s still been available. I don't like the number of times he has finished just outside the places, however, and with the price coming in to 25s, I have to leave him here. Suffice to say, if he wins, I will be lamenting on twitter and maybe quoting this very sentence.
Charley Hoffman is next and this pick would not have come naturally at all. However, that is why I have a system and on closer inspection, he was certainly worth a play this week at pretty big odds. Hoffman is finally starting to play again, after a relatively lean spell post his eye-catching Deutsche Bank win of 2010. Hoffman missed out somewhat last time at Greenbrier, decelerating to 67th after a fast start (9th after day 1). However, in 3 of the 4 prior tournaments he had been 13th, 2nd and 22nd. Good omens then for my 5th ranked system player. Hoffman has also done well in this event on his 2 previous visits, finishing 28th in 2008 and 4th in 2010. The next comment is too much of a generalisation, but does hold some truth: Canadian Opens are typically played on shortish, tight tracks. So, Hoffman's Canadian Open form should be seen as a positive trend, despite the fact it is a new course this year for Hoffman. Hoffman is hitting greens, ranking 2nd, 12th, 20th and 23rd in 4 of his last 5 events. There are few in the field who can match that sort of form (although 3 of them are also selected in my picks above). I also like the fact that Hoffman can score well enough when in form to go away from most players in the field. He shot -22 to win the Deutsche Bank and recently in finishing 2nd at the Travelers, shot -13. That sort of fits the brief this week and I am happy to roll the dice here.
Talking of dice rolling, let's talk about my 2 triple figure picks. Jerry Kelly is an experienced guy, which dovetails nicely with the profile of previous winners Furyk and Tway. Kelly does not get it done so often these days, although the Canadian Open last year was the springboard for a fine run of 7 top 26 finishes in the last 8 events of the season. Kelly has started his run of form a little earlier this year, entering this week on a run of 37th/12th/36th/13th. None of those events screamed for accuracy quite like this one and on a short tight track, we find the most likely route for Kelly to feature. 11th, 2nd, 20th and 2nd for driving accuracy in the last 4 events and 80th, 5th, 7th and 22nd for greens hit tells you this man is in by far his best ball striking form of the season. 20th for total putts last week at Annandale does not put me off at all either. My final encouragement for Kelly is that he sits 11th in my event form ranks, having been 5th in 2009 and 2005. He doesn't land often, but I am happy to side with Kelly here.
I have talked about Greg Owen in recent player form guides, as he is having a very consistent season. My reservation usually is about whether he can go on and compete for the win, rather than finish "nicely". the Greenbrier rather spoiled the run, but Owen finished 9th, 11th and 17th prior to that. Despite the MC and then a solid 54th at the Open, Owen's stats continue to show prowess where it matters. Accuracy. 22nd for accuracy at the British and 47th for GIR was OK. However, prior to the Greenbriers (where he was still 23rd in greens for the holes he did play), Owen finished in the top 7 for greens hit in 3 straight events. I want him on my team here at a whopping 125/1. I think the place potential is much better than the 30+/1 odds suggest and I am really happy to have him on board. Downsides are no Canadian Opens since 2007 and a so-so 60th here in 2006. However, I think he is in a very good place right now and if he can recapture the groove he has had recently with his irons, he could be in for a big week
So much for the short preview...................
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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