Midpoint selection
1pt EW Peter Hanson at 150/1 (Various)
On a personal note, I selected players ready to see a true test of links golf, convinced I had the right calibre of player onside to cope better than most. What we have seen is a mild and almost limp event, which has allowed players to dial in and play target golf.............or so the theory goes.
Snedeker and Scott show how easy the course is playing to date, with Snedeker hitting well over 80% of greens despite less than stellar accuracy off the tee. It is a real surprise to me then that only 26 other players have managed to break par. There have been comments about players struggling to readjust to the benign conditions having practiced low punch shots, chip and run shots and worked generally on coping with adversity in the build up. This is a factor of course, but I am surprised at the level of frankly poor play to date. Players seem to be struggling to reset and attack the golf course. Snedeker and Scott clearly have taken the course for what it is to date and that stands them on good stead today, as more of the same weather wise is expected. The question is whether either of the leaders can fare well today and hold on when the weather is expected to really pick up tomorrow. Let's see if we can find any indicators.
The first chart below shows the position of the eventual winner after 36 holes since 2001.
Aside from 2001, all winners have been inside the top 15 at halfway. Indeed, in all years bar 2001 and 2007, all winners have been inside the top 10 at this stage. In 5 of the 11 years, the halfway leader or co-leader has gone on to win the event. 2001 takes on a little added significance here of course, as this was the last British Open at Lytham. Duval sat at level par 142 (It was a par 71 in 2001) and 7 shots back of Monty's lead, before romping through the field with -10 over the weekend, eventually winning easily by 3 shots. clearly, it can be done, but it takes a special effort. In the previous Lytham Open in 1996, Tom Lehman led at the end of each round and went on to win despite a closing 73.
The logic for a hero charge from deep would appear to be along these lines - If the top two stall today and the lead is somewhere between -8 and -10 at the close of play, any player who can take advantage of mild conditions today and shoot -5 to -7 will surge up the leaderboard. We are on Goosen who is Even par and T28th. So, let's surmise with him - always nice to dream. If Goosen were to shoot 64 today and sit at -6, he would be in the hunt. Tomorrow in expected tough conditions, a round of level par may yet see him challenge for the title. Sounds easy huh? In reality, I would be surprised to see the lead remain at -10 and so the main chance appears to be for those in a little closer order having a good day and threatening -10 by the close. Els is 7 off and has to be considered unlikely from there (especially with the way he is putting). For me, it is a likely 9 horse race for those -4 and better - the top 9 is full of top notch players, all of whom can fit my brief for what is required to come through and win.............and Thomas Aiken. I might regret that dismissal come Sunday, but, talented though he is, I will be surprised if he gets near winning this event.
The next chart shows where players have been at half way before going on to place.
The first thing that strikes me as interesting is the midway position of the entire top 5 in 2001 (including ties). 2001 is the only year in which no player placing was even in the top 5 at the halfway stage. Midway positions are as follows in 2001: 35th, 6th, 17th, 35th, 9th, 17th, 26th, 17th, 26th. Repeated numbers indicate tied positions. So, only 2 players placing were in the top 10, with the other 6th 17th or worse at this stage. So, it can be done.
In 2002 and 2003, players were able to come from the cut line to place. In fact, each year there is a decent story for players coming from deep to place. Headlines as follows:
2001: 35th halfway to 1st (Duval)
2002: 68th to 2nd (Elkington)
2003: 11th to 2nd (Vijay Singh. Brian Davis went from 57th to 6th)
2004: 37th to 4th (Westwood)
2005: 70th to 5th (Ogilvy)
2006: (22nd to 5th (Tanihara)
2007: 42nd to 4th (Richard Green)
2008: 52nd to 3rd (Stenson)
2009: 53rd to 5th (Donald)
2010: 38th to 3rd (McIlroy)
2011 : 19th to 5th (Fowler/Kim)
So, if you can find a player at huge odds who finds his groove and gets tough tomorrow, there is genuine hope that a player can place.
Given the two charts above, I would suggest it is easier to win big by backing a player at huge odds who goes on to place than it is to back a longshot to come and win. Anybody who selects a player to win from below Ernie in 10th is at best brave. Recall that Duval won from 35th, but the gap was "only" seven at that stage. The flip side to this is that Duval was 7 back after round 2, but actually led the field after round 3.
Now let's analyse our leaderboard. The chart below shows how our players have fared in the last two years when in the top 20 at halfway. Note that my stats are taken from the PGA and European tour only, so I don't have anything here for the likes of Steven Alker, who sits T11th.
How it works:
Those columns marked "current position" show the event leaderboard as it stands. "Halfway position 2011/2012" shows how many top 20s a player has had and their average position within the top 20. The performance columns show how a player has performed from halfway to the end, with the rank on the right showing who has performed best.
Luke Donald ranks first above. In 18 top 20 halfway positions, his average improvement has gone from 9.2 to 5.8 by the end. That is a very strong improvement, but I just do not fancy he hangs on when it gets wild tomorrow.
Peter Hanson is interesting. In a not dissimilar position in the Masters, we tipped him at 80/1 and he duly went on to storm through the field and lead after round 3, eventually finishing 3rd. Hanson, when in the top 15 in 2011 and 2012 at halfway, produced the following finishes: 15th, 6th, 10th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 3rd. 6 top 4s in 9 events where he has been top 15 is strong. If you look at the trend, the top 4 finishes are the last 6 numbers. Hanson is 150/1 and given he can play tough conditions too, I am going to get him onside at what I consider to be a huge 150/1 with 4 places available in the place market. 37.5/1 that Hanson makes up 3 shots on the field and places is massive value given that he keeps doing exactly that over the weekend.
So what of the leaders? It is interesting that none of those currently in the top 5 bar Paul Lawrie rank inside the top 10 here. This includes Tiger, partly because he has been top 3 in 4 majors since his break from the game, none of which have produced anything better than a 4th place finish. There is a clear suggestion that some of these guys will fall away, which adds a little more weight to the theory that a guy like Peter Hanson can score.
Since 2010, Snedeker has performed as follows when top 10 at halfway (halfway position followed by finishing position in brackets) : 6(43), 1(8), 1(5), 1(4), 9(1), 7(15), 3(11), 8(33), 4(3), 7(22), 10(16), 8(8), 2(1), 7(17)
Snedeker goes backwards very much more often than not. 3 times he had led at this stage, with nothing better than 4th by the end.
And the same for Adam Scott: 7(9), 7(9), 6(11), 8(6), 8(23), 10(3), 1(1), 9(67), 1(8), 1(6), 9(4), 4(4), 3(13), 5(15)
So, Scott is much more solid than Sendeker, but still hardly compelling. When the wind blows, Scott had best hope he has a few shots on the field I fancy.
I am going to stick with a single selection here, but there is genuine encouragement for those chasing when looking at the head of the field. I haven't talked about Tiger and will not really say much. I have to leave him at 3/1. I simply do not have faith that he copes well tomorrow for reasons of pressure and scrutiny and the ability of him either utilise driver well if winds dictate he must, or control long irons to the green in cross-winds, if he does keep the driver in the his bag
I personally am going to lay Snedeker, but will not adivse as it is a costly exercise. Unfortunately, Goosen is 10 back so can not readily be traded. I will hold on and hope for that 65.
I personally am going to lay Snedeker, but will not adivse as it is a costly exercise. Unfortunately, Goosen is 10 back so can not readily be traded. I will hold on and hope for that 65.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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