Golf Tips - British Open Tournament Form Guide

Outright selections
2pts EW Lee Westwood at 16/1 (Various, but take Paddy Power's 7 places)
2pts win Retief Goosen at 180 (Betfair only, with a view to trade)


Already advised 1pt EW Raphael Jacquelin at 150/1 (Paddy Power, 7 places)


British Open outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-outright_17.html 
British Open special bets http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-special-bets.html
Golf tips - British Open Form guide (table only) http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-form-guide-table.html


Hi all


As usual, my tournament form analysis below.


My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:

• Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
• Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.  
• Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.  
• Course experience points - I am not using this metric this week as, although Lytham was used in 2001, it is too far back to truly differentiate the field here for this analysis, given that the number of players having played the course 11 years ago is so low.  In my outright preview, I will of course consider any previous Lytham experience in making my final selections.  

As we are looking at tournament form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. 

So, looking purely at tournament histor, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:

Stewart Cink heads my rankings here, due to a really consistent British Open record, climaxed by a win in 2009. Few players can match Cink's record of 6 top 34 finishes in 11 years, with the win in 2009 and 6th place in 2007 the highlights.  Cink is as big as 225/1 with Bet365, which holds some appeal given his form here.  Cink also finished a useful 30th at Lytham in 2001, so has some course form.  Against him is form coming in to the event, but the same can be said of him in 2009, when he won the Open having done nothing on tour for the previous 4 months.  Cink is not quite the force he was on the PGA Tour right now, but this is a dark horse pick I could not put you off at the price.

Darren Clarke is 2nd in my ranks for very obvious reasons.  The defending champion this year, Clarke has played pretty horribly since winning the Claret Jug in 2011.  Following that win, Clarke was given the most laughable major starting odds I have ever and probably will ever see : 66/1 for the PGA last year.  Since then, his form has prompted a dose of realism from layers and Clarke is a general 150/1 in the format of golf he loves most this week.  Open winners have a strong trend of having won earlier in the same year, which was true also of Clarke, who was in much better shape in 2011 coming in.  Clarke however, recently hinted in the Irish Open that he may be ready to give punters at least early excitement in his defence of the title.  In the last 11 years, Clarke's other headline result is a 3rd place.............here at Lytham in 2001.  Clarke also played Lytham in 1996, finishing T11.  I find it difficult to match up his form with any realistic hope of winning, but Clarke will have his backers this week.  I am not going get to misty eyed and sentimental about Clarke here - between 1st in 2011 and 3rd in 2001, Clarke failed to crack the top 10.  He is a swerve for me.

Tied 2nd in my ranks with Clarke is Lee Westwood.  Westwood's MC last year was a surprise, but do not let that anomaly cloud his credentials to contend here.  2nd in 2010 and 3rd in 2009 (plus a 4th in 2004) allied to strong major finishes everywhere else in recent years, Westwood is perhaps the best person to trust to contend this week.  The question is, can he get over the line and win the event.  It is a tough question, although I believe Westwood's total driving will again set him up well here versus the great majority of the field.  I tipped Westwood up win only in the US Open in what was another event with a high premium on keeping the ball in play and Westwood finished well, but not quite well enough.  If Westwood can start well (as he did in 2009 and 2010), he is an extremely strong place contender and may just be the last man standing.  I want him onside again this week.

Retief Goosen is a model of consistency in this event and i believe 110/1 and 7 places from Paddy Power will attract a steady stream of bets as punters do their homework...........or read this.  Goosen missed lat year, but in 10 straight years prior, Goosen averaged a 12th placed finish, which is stunning consistency around a variety of links courses.  This is Goosen's run in those 10 years, Lytham 2001 first: 13th, 8th, 10th, 7th, 5th, 14th, 23rd, 32nd, 5th, 6th.  Make no mistake, Goosen is actually likely to keep punters interested come the final day.  Goosen has shot nothing worse than 76 in his last 40 rounds, which is tremendous consistency.  Although weather may be a factor, I am going to play that Goosen's consistency gives us a run this week.  There is currently strong liquidity for Goosen at 180 on Betfair and that is the advised play for me here.  I think there is every chance that Goosen is hovering somewhere within 5 shots of the summit come the weekend, which could yield a strong opportunity to trade.  goosen has a 5th, 10th and 23rd in his last 5 starts too, to show that his recent form stands up pretty well (his other two events were MCs).  The 5th was in the Volvo Matchplay in Spain (where he over-performed versus expectation).  His 10th was at the super-tough US Open and his 23rd at the tough Open De France.  Goosen then has served warning that he is ready to again contend where the brief is for players that can grind and plot their way around the course.  There are few better.  I will put some specials up later in the week, but the 10/1 with 3 places for top South African by BlueSq is one of the best bets I have seen in a long time.  Sure, there are some great South Africans out there, but if Goosen does what he does every time he tees it up in this event, he is almost certain to at least place.  

Sergio ties Goosen in my ranks here, due to 7 top 10s in 11 starts, which includes 9th at Lytham in 2001.  I have a nagging doubt re Sergio which is on top of his obvious nearly man tag down the years.  When not far from the lead at the Masters this year, Garcia said he was not able to win a major at that point in time (I can't remember the exact quote, but it was that order of magnitude).  That is not the mentality you want to have when trying to beat the World's best.  However, the British Open is different as often it is a case of last man standing rather than  being the guy who storms through to victory.  Garcia's last win at the end of last year was at Valderrama, which reaffirms that he can still play tough tracks extremely well.  His 9th last year in the Open was yet another reminder that his flair and creativity, allied to an impeccable short game, are traits that make him a likely contender again.  Arguably the most popular potential winner from outside the British Isles, Garcia has strong claims this week and a strong week from him would be a contending week.  My concern is Garcia's price.  He is no better than 35/1 with layers offering place positions.  I am genuinely teetering over whether Garcia makes my team and a forecast closer to the time which favours his early/late tee slot in the first two rounds may sway me.  The other factor that nags at me is his opening grouping with Rose and Woods.  Garcia's famous battle with Woods at the Masters is over a decade ago now.  I simply do not know how he will react if Woods starts well in particular.  I will probably reluctantly leave him out in the final reckoning, but it is far from an easy call.

Other notable performers:

Romero - Played 4 times, finishing 8th, 3rd (should have won), 32nd and 13th

Ben Curtis - 1st 2003, 8th 2007, 7th 2008.  Although form not as strong as earlier this year, he is a 2012 winner and may just go well here.

Davis Love III - 21st Lytham 2001, 14th 2002, 4th 2003, 5th 2004, 9th last year.

Dustin Johnson - 14th, 2nd last two years.  55/1 will not last if you are keen

Ernie Els - 8 top 8 finishes between 2001 and 2009, including a win in 2002 and 3rd here in 2001

Jim Furyk - 4th 06, 12th 07, 5th 08

Luke Donald - 5th 09, 11th 10

Martin Kaymer - 7th 2010, 12th 2011.  Hinting at form last week.

Padraig Harrington - 1,1 2007 and 2008.  Very strong and consistent form of late

Phil Mickelson - 3rd 2004, 2nd 2011 and 30th here in 2001.  Nice tune up last week

Raphael Jacquelin - 8th 2011 and 13th here in 2001.  Tip already advised

Richard Green - 4th 2007 and 16th 2011.  Finally, some form found coming in to this week.

Rickie Fowler - played 2, 14th and 5th.  Big threat.  

Rory McIlroy - 3rd, 25th last two years

Steve Stricker - 8th 07, 7th 08, 12th 11.  

Thomas Bjorn - 8th 2002, 2nd 2003, 4th last year.  MC here in 2001.  Form a little indifferent, but this is the Open........

Tiger - 4th 03, 9th 04, 1st 05, 1st 06 . Hasn't worked out to win when really tough yet at this event and for me not a value price to do so this year.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)