Golf Tips - Fedex St Jude Classic

Fedex St Jude Outright Selections


Spreadex selection
Robert Allenby 0.2 sell at 46 (spreadex)


Outright selections
1pt EW Joe Durant at 100/1 (Various)
1pt EW David Hearn at 125/1 (Various)

Previously advised
2pts EW David Toms at 33/1 (Now a best price of 25s), advised in the course form guide published on Monday  http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-fedex-st-jude-classic-course.html
1pt EW Bob Estes at 80/1 (Various), advised on Twitter.

The course
The St Jude Classic at TPC Southwind, Memphis is a difficult event to unpick this week.  In its usual place on tour as the precursor to the US Open, it is difficult to know exactly how the leading contenders will approach this week.  Whilst always useful to go in to a Major Championship in demonstrable good form, the merits of winning or challenging in the week prior are questionable.  First is the obvious mental and physical exertion associated with challenging at the business end of the tournament. Second is the media hype associated with being one of the form men going in to the year's 2nd major and added pressure on a golfer to follow up.

A quirk I noticed in glancing at previous winners is a strong association with Texas.  In the last 11 years, players born or raised in Texas have won in 2001 (Estes), 2005/2008 (Leonard), 2006 (Maggert), 2009 (Gay) and 2011 (Frazar).  6 out of the 11 winners in that time have strong Texas links.  If we add the other 5 winners in to the mix (Mattiace, Austin, Westwood, Toms twice), then we see that no players from the West coast have won here in that time.  Perhaps it won't be John Daly's week here then.  The other thing you will notice is that all of these players were over 30 when they won.  Experience is a desired trait here.

More important on this tight par 70 bermudagrass greened track is the ability to pay accurately around the course.  Driving distance is far from the most important attribute here.  Harrison Frazar actually finished 6th for driving distance last year, but you then have to scroll to Jhonattan Vegas in T32nd to find the next player to be in the top 10 in this category.  Accuracy from the tee is important, but king here is hitting greens and having the ability to putt well and scramble well when required.  The top 4 here last year were 8th, 2nd, 18th and 1st respectively for greens hit.  At only 73% greens hit by the stat leader last year (Villegas), TPC Southwind ranked as one of the toughest on tour in this category.  Clearly, the winner come Sunday will have dialled in their iron game better than most if not all.


The selections
Zach Johnson is favourite this week and rightly so.  With a pair of second places and a win last time out in his last 4 events, there is little question that Johnson is dialled in right now.  With a Ryder cup place now within his sights, Johnson can ill afford to let up either.  The question is whether single figure quotes can be backed.  I am not convinced.  Firstly, Johnson, despite his impeccable recent form is not a person to trust to stay hot for long.  I am well aware that I raised this as a reason for ignoring 12/1 last week which proved costly.  However, Johnson is a player who often performs in spells and I simply can not trust a single figure quote here.  My other consideration is the US Open in the following week.  Johnson has a pretty abject record in the US Open, but may feel that the tighter Olympic track could offer a chance for him to really contend.  I do wonder if he will be fully focussed on winning here.

Rory McIlroy has a slightly similar feel to Tiger last week for me.  Tiger had performed pretty poorly in the Masters, Wells Fargo Championship and Players Championship, before winning in impressive style last week.  In the same period, McIlroy has missed 3 cuts and added this event as an attempt to tune up ahead of his US Open title defence.  It could be that Rory dials in here and walks off with the event, but I am far from convinced that he is playing accurately enough to prosper here.  Again, I have to leave the 11/1 quotes.

I advised David Toms with a confident 2pt EW bet yesterday when Ladbrokes were a stand out 33/1.  That they are now hiding at 20/1 is indicative I believe of how wrong that price was.  25s is still generally available elsewhere, however, and that is still worth taking.  I mentioned Toms' record here in my course form preview, which includes 2 victories, 2 runners up finishes, 3rd, 4th and 10th in the last 10 visits here.  Toms is in the right place to challenge again this week, despite a missed cut when defending his Crowne Plaza title last time out.  It was Toms' putter that let him down that week (bentgrass).  However, for the first two rounds, he was right near the top of the sheets for driving accuracy and greens hit.  Previously on bermuda at the Players, Toms was 27th in putting.  I really think that he has an excellent chance here.

I have convinced myself also that Bob Estes is worth a play.  3rd in my course form ranks, I believe I said all I needed to in my course form preview "1st in 2001, 3rd in 2003, 2nd in 2004 and 8th in both 2005 and 2010 is noteworthy.  Add in 4 further top 30 finishes and only 2 MCs and you have a player who likes this course.  With only early prices to date, I am underwhelmed to see only 80/1 available.  Question is, do we see anything in Estes' current form to suggest he can fire again here?  Well, there is something in his recent game that suggests he is worth considering.  In 2011, Estes' stop start season consisted on only 13 events.  This year, Estes will be playing his 13th event this week.  Estes MC last time out at the Crowne Plaza and finished only 41st at the Byron Nelson.  However, Estes had the 10th best round there in round 2 and the best round in round 3 and has never played either event particularly well.   15th at the Players (14th in putts on Bermuda) prior to that was his best finish there so there is something there.  I would like to see triple figures, but he has my attention."


Estes is well worth a play this week.

Harrison Frazar's win in 2011 at 275/1 showed that big priced winners can be found here.  Indeed, in 2010, it was only the then unheralded Robert Garrigus dropping 3 shots on the 72nd hole, which allowed Westwood in to a play-off that he eventually won.  Given this, I am happy to look further down the list for my final selections.

Joe Durant gets the nod at 100/1 for me this week.  Durant was a fast finishing 3rd last time out at the Byron Nelson.  Indeed, he led the round ranks for both rounds 3 and 4.  Durant certainly fits my over 30 brief as a tour veteran in his 49th year.  I am drawn to Durant for his impeccable accuracy generally and noticeably in recent events.  In the last 4 events, Durant has been 16th, 1st, 13th and 3rd for driving accuracy and 31st, 5th, 9th and 21st (and 8th before those events also) for greens hit.  Put simply, Durant is the type of player who will do the simple things well and that is important here.  Durant only has a 25th in 2007 as any recent hint that he can play well here.  However, I believe there will be a big price or two near the top the leaderboard come Sunday and Durant is certainly one who can.  I hope his US Open qualifying efforts have not taken their toll.

My final vote goes to David Hearn. who actually ranks 6th in my tournament predictor ratings and is quoted at 125/1 this week.  Hearn is actually 10th best in the field using my usual 3 tournament form guide coming in to the event and again is really dialled in of late in accuracy from tee to green.  In the last two events, Hearn has posted 4 rounds in the top 15 best in the field.  Although 47th last year is hardly irresistible, Hearn sat within the top 20 after round 3 and was only denied a good finish after falling away on the final day.  Indeed, Hearn and Villegas sat together on -2 going in to the final day.  Villegas shot 64 to finish 3rd and Hearn went in entirely the opposite direction.  Adept at keeping bogeys from the card and a useful scrambler, Hearn will go well this week if he can find a better groove with the putter.  I am happy to chance that he does.

I am also adding Allenby in the Spreadex market.  As I mentioned in my course form guide, 6 top 17 finishes out of 7 is enough for me to make a play.  0.2pt sell at 46.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)