Golf Tips - Fedex St Jude Classic Course form guide

Fedex St Jude Classic Course form

Outright selections : 2pts EW David Toms at 33/1 (Ladbrokes only)


St Jude outright selections in full http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-fedex-st-jude-classic.html

Hi all

As usual, my course form analysis below.

My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:

• Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
• Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.  
• Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.  
• Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use.  In reality, this is not a factor here as Muirfield host course in this period with exception of 2007, when 3 courses were used including Muirfield.  

As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. 

So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:

Brian Gay tops the rankings due to his comfortable victory in 2009.  He followed that up with 15th in 2010 and has been 4th (2007) and 5th (2004) also.  The reason Gay and a number of other short guys challenge here is because the test is really not off the tee.  Driving distance is a negligible attribute, although Harrison Frazar was 6th for distance when winning last year.  This is a 2nd shot golf course, with dialled in iron players highly desired.  Gay's recent form is not great however, although a 4th place on bermuda (as per here) at the Valero Texas in April serves as a reminder that he can fire if he finds his groove.

Harrison Frazar won last year as mentioned before.  That he ranks joint first tells me I should consider how I calculate my rankings.  Frazar ranks high for his 14th in 2009 and 1st last year.  However, 3 MCs and a 69th on the four other occasions he has teed up here suggest we should approach Frazar with extreme caution here.  Frazar actually started the year extremely well, finishing 5th and then 2nd in his first two events and sitting 2nd at halfway in the WM Phoenix Open (his 4th event).  However, in 36 rounds since then, only 3 times has he had a good round versus the field.  46th last time out on bermuda at the Players, Frazar actually performed very well in rounds 1 and 3.  However, his putting was not exactly stellar for the week and there is little to suggest he can potentially defend his title here.

Bob Estes is joint 3rd and a look through his last 11 appearances here shows some impressive results.  1st in 2001, 3rd in 2003, 2nd in 2004 and 8th in both 2005 and 2010 is noteworthy.  Add in 4 further top 30 finishes and only 2 MCs and you have a player who likes this course.  With only early prices to date, I am underwhelmed to see only 80/1 available.  Question is, do we see anything in Estes' current form to suggest he can fire again here?  Well, there is something in his recent game that suggests he is worth considering.  In 2011, Estes' stop start season consisted on only 13 events.  This year, Estes will be playing his 13th event this week.  Estes MC last time out at the Crowne Plaza and finished only 41st at the Byron Nelson.  However, Estes had the 10th best round there in round 2 and the best round in round 3 and has never played either event particularly well.   15th at the Players (14th in putts on Bermuda) prior to that was his best finish there so there is something there.  I would like to see triple figures, but he has my attention.  

Villegas was 8th and 3rd here last two years, so has demonstrated course affinity.  Last year, his 3rd is even more impressive when you consider it was his only top 25 in the first 19 events of his season.  Since then, there have been suggestions that his form is slowly returning.  3 top 25s season to date shows he is in a better place, but he is still far from the heights he once scaled.  Villegas has produced an MC and 70th place finish in the last two events, but was 32nd and 18th prior to that.  The 18th would have been a championship contending week as well but for an abject round 3.  Villegas is 40s in the early prices and I would need to see more, but he has a chance here.

David Toms, MC last year aside, has an excellent record here.  From 2002, this is his St Jude CV : 4th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 10th, 3rd, 37th, 2nd, 29th, MC.  If Toms plays well, he places and quite possibly wins.  The Olympic US Open course may have grabbed his attention as a course he has a chance on as well (big drivers may be less dominant there than recent US Opens) so Toms may see this as a serious warm up for the US Open as well.  4th and 1st in accuracy and 6th and 4th in GIR in his last two outings, Toms is a hot putter away from challenging here.  He surprised many (including me) by missing the cut in trying to defend his Crowne Plaza title.  However, 27th in putting on his way to 10th at the Players shows he is not far away.  33/1 with Ladbrokes only is worth taking.

Robert Allenby in T7th is interesting and worth a closing mention.  In 7 appearances here between 2002 ans 2011, Allenby has been 9th, 17th, MC, 12th, 2nd, 4th and 13th.  Whilst last week was not spectacular, all four rounds were OK and hint at a returning consistency.  I highlighted Cink last week as a great spread bet and he duly placed well inside his sell line.  Allenby appears to be also worth a glance on finishing positions this week.  I will look at the line and advise if I believe it still to be value.  I would expect Allenby to be a sell price of somewhere around 48 and will advise a bet if so.

Regards

Dave (OneBet)