WGC Cadillac Championship Tips

2pt EW Nick Watney at 33/1 (Various) Loss 4pts
0.75pt EW David Toms at 100/1 Loss 1.5pts
0.75pts EW Ben Crane at 100/1 (Various) Loss 1.5pts
0.5pts EW KJ Choi at 90/1 (boyleSports, Bet365) Loss 1pt

18 hole matchbet - 1pt Luke Donald to beat Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy at 5/2 (Various) Loss 1pt
18 hole matchbet - 2pt Retief Goosen to beat Ian Poutler and Rickie Fowler at 9/4 (SportingBet, 11/5 various) W Profit 1.25pts (dead heat rules - Goosen tied with Fowler)

Total loss : -9.75pts

I have been really surprised this week to find that very few tipsters on twitter and the web have been talking up the chances of Nick Watney.   Initially priced up at 35/1, I expected to see his odds converge towards 25s before the off.  That they haven't is probably due to a fairly average run of form,coupled with the apparent strength ahead of him in the betting, with an in-form quartet of McIlroy, Westwood, Woods and Mickelson occupying the column inches of many writers this week.

Indeed, the sub-plot between these major players is an intriguing one this week.  We can throw Luke Donald in to the mix as well, with the World Number 1 slot very much up for grabs here.

However, I believe there is scope for some of the bigger priced players to feature here.  The strength of the big 4 in the market has clearly pushed out the price for others who would normally be shorter given their relative merits.  Put simply, I do not trust any of them enough to be confident they will win this week.  In addition, I believe the list of potential winners goes deeper than the top 4.

Mickelson and Woods are not to be trusted entirely right now.  A lot of people are saying that Tiger is back.  Undoubtedly, he is challenging consistently at the moment and seems to be due a win some time soon.  However, he is still not managing to post 4 good rounds.  The stunning final round on Sunday can be looked at 2 ways.  My philosophical take is that before the hero charge on Sunday, Tiger had produced little more than solid scores in the first three rounds.  His putting clearly improved over the weekend and perhaps he is starting to find a little more confidence with the flatstick.  However, I am willing to pass up quotes of 7/1 in a World class field such as this................albeit reluctantly.

I had Phil win only last time out and he should have won after the fine start and tame challenge that confronted him on day 4.  That he didn't further put a doubt in my mind as to how much I can expect him to compete these days.  I do not have confidence that he gets it done this week, although his price is only just too low.

Westwood has an average record here and I have real doubts about his ability to really dominate a top class field.  I just can't trust him here and despite recent form, I think 14/1 is a poor price on a man with such a bad majors and WGC win record (i.e. 0 wins).  I understand the need to protect the place side from the bookies' perspective, but I can not trust a place either here given recent form.  McIlroy is the new number 1 and, in addition to playing tennis up in New York a couple of days ago, I suspect his practice time has been somewhat compromised in recent days and his focus may not be entire.  It is a hunch and also a major risk to oppose a guy who rates 11th as a blip in form over the last few months, but I feel oppose him I must.

I looked at the bermuda grass/Florida angle last week for the Honda Classic and lamented the fact I could not take advantage of the stellar form of Watney and Choi for this combination in recent seasons.  I usually consider Choi a better bet on tougher, more technical tracks than this, but am more than happy to have him onside at the price.  Watney finished 9th again this year at the MatchPlay as per last year and, despite a fairly slow start to the year, has not missed any cuts yet.  Also, Watney can quickly turn around indifference and produce big.  I actually like the fact that he is playing with Woods and Garcia in round 1.  Their Masters duel lives long in the memory and with both returning to form, there is likely to be a lot of focus on them this week.  Watney, the defending champion and 17th in the World to Tiger's 16th and Sergio's 18th, is playing a bit part - ideal for a returning champion on day one.  I just find it crazy that a guy with form here of 2, 26, 1 is such a big price.  How can he be over 2 times Westwood?  It just does not compute for me.  I believe that if Watney can go well in round 1, he has an outstanding chance to be contending again come Sunday.

Toms has a fine record here in the pre-WGC format, with a 2nd 5th and 5th in consecutive seasons between 2004 and 2006.  the course has been lengthened and modified a little since then, but Toms certainly has game to go well here.  I do not necessarily subscribe to the fact that long hitters are necessary here.  toms has been quietly getting his game together and played pretty well at the MatchPlay.  I considered Luke Donald for this event and like the broadly similar credentials of the tidy Toms at over 3 times the price, especially as I have some form in 2012 to go on.

Finally, I can not ignore Ben Crane at 100/1.  Crane has been one of the best players on tour this season and is performing well in greens hit, putting and birdies, all of which are highly desired this week on a relatively easy track.  I actually expect him to feature this week and I think he should be more arount the 50/1 mark this week.  100/1 is a great price.

The mathcbets are pure value calls, as always.  Westwood's great charge denied us in the matchbets with Bradley last week, but I am happy to take him on again.  At 5/2, the usually ultra-consistent Luke Donald should be backed as a value option against McIlroy and Westwood.  In the other matchbet, I would be stunned to see Poulter do anything on day 1 given his preparation for this event.  Then, I am left with Goosen and Fowler.  Fowler can start hot, but quotes of 13/10 are too prohibitive.  At over 2/1 in (what I consider to be) a 2-ball with Fowler, I am happy to take Goosen.  I can trust Goosen much more to turn up on day 1 than by the end of day 4 these days.