Halfway tip
2pts KJ Choi to place at 16/1 (Paddy Power)
Some analysis below on the leading contenders for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at half way.
The table below looks at the leading players and considers how they have performed being within the top 20 at the halfway stage.
So, let's walk you through what the above means, by looking at Tiger. Tiger has had 6 tops 20s at half way in the last 15 months, averaging 9th position at halfway from those 6 tournaments. However, his average finish in those events is 18th, which is only the 13th best of those challenging this week. So, he drops on average 9 spots, which ranks only 15th in weekend performance after a sound start.
Of course, this is not definitive where Tiger is concerned and I will not be advising anything on him. He loves this course, has won 33 out of 41 times he has been halfway leader throughout his career and has a real chance. At around even money, it is a question of whether it is this week he returns or not. Tough to be confident at evens given recent disappointment, but he must win soon.
I am looking for value elsewhere. If you look at two ranking columns, you will see KJ Choi at one for both. So, his finishing position from his 10 top 20s at halfway is the best average finish in the field. Also, the second last column shows me that only he and Webb Simpson have improved their position on average in the last two seasons. Contrast that with co-leader Charlie Wi. T1 at halfway, but falls an average 23 positions over the weekend. At 10/1 with 3 places and 1/4 or 4 places and 1/5 odds, I can not advise Wi as being a value shout here.
The next table looks at players who have been top 10 at halfway. Same columns.
Interestingly, no player averaged an improvement over the weekend after being within the top 10 at halfway. This is more understandable, as a player who is 1 at halfway can only finish in the same position or worse come the end. We also see in terms of number of records that we have a less reliable data set to go on. Sean O'Hair ranks 1, but we only have 2 events to look at. KJ Choi has been top 10 5 times and performs 2nd best over the weekend. Also, at the Players last year, Choi turned an 11th at halfway in to a W come Sunday. So, we have a player who can come from deep to prevail on a tough course. I like the place odds of 16/1 with Paddy Power and believe he is worth a decent punt. I have stayed off the 80/1 EW - I believe that (fair conditions considered) Choi may need back to back 66s to even have a chance to win and that feels extremely unlikely given the tough nature of the course and weekend pin positions.
Martin Laird is the only of my pre-event tips truly in the mix. He performs well enough over the weekend for the 16.5/1 place odds we got before the off to still feel like value. Laird is of course defending here and hopefully he fights strongly for us over the weekend.
No prices up on Spreadex as yet, but if you can buy Charlie Wi at around 15, he may be worth a small interest
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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