Transitions Championship - Midpoint considerations

Mid-point selections
2pt EW Webb Simpson at 20/1 (Various) Loss 4pts
1pt EW Sergio Garcia at 14/1 (Various) Loss 2pts

Note:  Make sure you choose a layer who offers 1/4 place terms.

I wanted to introduce you to some of the analysis I conduct when looking at in-running options on the PGA tour, which will give some perspective on the bets advised.  The table below is an analysis of how the players occupying the top 24 spots at halfway have fared over the weekend in 2011 and to date in 2012.

The key boxes (aside from the player name) are the 3 boxes on the right.  It makes for interesting reading.  Fancy a flutter on William McGirt?  Have a think before you do.  He has, on 11 occasions, been inside the top 20 going in to the weekend and yet has an average finish of 34.5th position.  So, a regular for going backwards over the weekend.  Our leader, Jason Dufner, fares quite well in this analysis; his position at the top of the pile must not be taken lightly.


Contrast the form of McGirt with Luke Donald, who has 12 top 20s at halfway and averages a mighty 5th place finish come Sunday.  Bookies pay top 4 at the midpoint.  Luke Donald is a general 4/1 for the event now, which means money back if he places top 4.  Not a bad price at all, given that you might scoop the win part as well.  McGirt is as big as 25s on Bet365.  Hopefully the above table starts to reveal why that isn't as great a price as it might look at first.


Looking just at top 20 can be a little misleading as McGirt may have been 15th-20th a bunch of times as halfway and Donald 1-10.  So, let's now look at players inside the top 10 at halfway.

This table shows that actually, Dufner does not do quite so well when really in the mix.  Indeed, he seems better able to relax and play well if placed 11-20th as he does when placed 1-10 at halfway.  McGirt has actually been top 7 times.  Nice play, but rarely then followed up over the weekend.  It surprises me that for the 22 players to have had at least one PGA or European Tour top 10 in the last 15 months, only 6 have gone on to average a top 10 finish.  Clearly, there is value in looking at the top 6 ranked players above as holding appeal to be there come late on Sunday.

I have added a final column in above to show wins.  Luke Donald finishes on average 5th in 6 attempts, but has never won when really in the mix at halfway (he did so in the Scottish Open, but that was reduced to 3 rounds).  His Children's Miracle win of last year came from 14th at halfway.  So, the 4/1 actually looks a little tighter on closer inspection.  Indeed, these guys have 102 halway top 10s between them and only 6 of those top 10s have been converted to victory come Sunday.  Webb Simpson may be 5 shots off the top, but at only 2 shots behind Donald and 5 times the price, that is where my value is this weekend.  Sergio also holds great appeal having converted twice last year.  He is a general 14s and, given the clear potential win part of the bet, these guys hold value for me.  You may also want to consider Justin Rose, who is in great form of late.  However, his deceleration over the back 9 on Friday makes me a little more cautious.

I can not see any Spread betting options to date, but would certainly look at BUYING William McGirt's finishing position if anywhere around the 15 mark.