Honda Classic Tips

The Selections

Outright
1pt EW Spencer Levin at 66/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
1pt Ew Robert Allenby at 45/1 (Various) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Mark Wilson at 45/1 (Boyle, BetVictor, Bet365) Loss 2pts
1pt EW YE Yang at 45/1 (Sporting Bet, Stan James) Loss 2pts

72 Hole Mathcbet
1pt Keegan Bradley to beat Lee Westwood at 5/4 (Coral) Loss 1pt
2pts Justin Rose to beat Ian Poulter at 8/13 (Sporting Bet) W Profit 1.23pts

Spread betting tip
Sell Chris Kirk's finishing position at 50 at 0.2 points per point (Spreadex) Loss 1.8pts

Total loss : 9.57pts

The course
The PGA national Champion Course is about as hard as it gets on the regular tour, ranking the hardest course outside of majors in the last 2 years.

There is a high premium on siding with players this week who can play with intelligence and patience.  Bogey avoidance and GIR will be key this week, as players try to plot their way to a score.

Last year, Rory Sabbattini missed the green a fairly incredible 25 times, but still won the tournament.  The reason is that Sabbattini's scrambling was impeccable, with 21 of those 25 missed greens resulting in an up and down for par.  So, as hitting greens is key, so too is an ability to scramble when the inevitable missed greens come along.  With over 100 bunkers on the course, good bunker players have a chance to gain on the field here also.

All rounders are desired here, but the emphasis is lessened on driving this week.  Rather, it is about having near complete iron control and a great short game.  As far as putting is concerned, players will be under pressure to hole out well and consistently.

State form is also a desired attribute, but is a distant 2nd to a demonstrated ability on tough tracks, with of course previous here beneficial.  Finally, prowess on Bermuda putting tracks is a useful guide here.

Much is said of the Bear Trap and rightly so.  It is a brutal stretch in which the remit is survival, but it does conversely offer a great way to be in-play in the first two rounds, which I will describe next.

Betfair in-play consideration
I mentioned the Bear Trap above.  However, there is clear value available for survivors of this stretch pre-cut. After the final Bear Trap hole (17th), holes 18 looped through to hole 5 have the following difficulty ranking : 15, 16, 14, 18, 17, 12.  So, the players have 6 holes in which they are playing 6 of the 7 easiest holes on the entire course.  So how to take advantage of this fact?

I am looking for the following player type:
A player starting on hole 10
A player with proven ability to find greens and make birdies
A player no worse than +1 thru the 17th (his 8th hole)
A player preferably out in the morning

Of course, it is impossible to know what a player's score might be thru 17.  However, we can do a little work on the rest of the brief above and consider the players to back in the outright market if they are going OK.  So, to be clear, my strategy here is to wait until a player walks off the 17th (his 8th) and then back him for the outright tournament if he is still posting a decent score.  The hope then is that over the next 6 holes that player is able to pick up 2 or 3 shots, which will see his odds come in significantly.  Then, it is up to you.  My strategy would be to back a player at say 50s on Betfair after hole 17, then, if he does well up to hole 5, lay out and retrieve at least your stake.  So, effectively I am saying you are setting up a decent player to give you some free money if he plays 18 to 5 well.  Given they have played through the bear trap well, the player should be in a decent place mentally and is either striking the ball well or scrambling well.  This is a sensible play.
In fact, you may even want to consider a player at say +3, if they have played well apart from a triple on 15 or something.  You may find that he is at triple figure odds, plays holes 18-5 in -3 and is suddenly back in the tournament.  Aaron Baddeley was readily avaialable at 200/1 for the Northern Trust Open after going +3 through 3 holes.  The Betfair market likes to over-react, at least in the short term.  If I see somebody such as Mark Wilson at +3 through 17 holes, I will be backing up my outright bet above with a further in-play bet if I can 100s or better.
I would suggest a 1st round leader bet, but liquidity in this market is usually poor on Betfair, especially during the morning.  Of those starting on 10 in the morning, Yang, Sabbattini, Wilson, Steele, Bradley and a few others such as Villegas deserve consideration in this respect.  It is likely that their odds will be inflated at that time and could look a whole lot better 6 holes later.
If you are unsure of any of the above and keen to try this method - one of the best chances at free money you will get in a golf tournament, let me know.  We will post a Betfair guide similar to the spread betting post above in the near future.  Contact me at @onebettips if you want any guidance.  I will try and post some advice in play also........after I have got my own bets on

Outright Selection logic
I like Levin this week.  He consistently shows up on tough tracks, improved to 14th here last year and is in the middle of a fine run of form that almost brought a first victory.  It is notable that Ladbrokes are now hiding away with a 50/1 quote on Levin.  They opened at 80s, with 6 place terms and must (and should) have taken a lot of money at those odds.  16th in my recent Florida ranks, 19th in my recent BermudaGrass rankings and improving, I like his chances here.

Robert Allenby has a great record here down the years with a string of place finishes.  It has been an age since Allenby won on tour, but he is worth a play here, despite the short odds.  Allenby's mental lapse last week cost him that win, but hopefully that serves to add steel and determination this week to a game that was demonstrably ticking nicely last week.  A fine ball striker capable of control better than most when the going is tough, he could have a big chance come Sunday.

Mark Wilson is another in fine form and America's last winner at this event.  Twice a winner in the early part of 2011 and with a W already this season, Wilson's ability to start the season hot has again been affirmed.  I do not add or remove any player based upon the Match Play last week, but I can not fail to be impressed by a run to 3rd place last week, with only a pretty tight match with Mahan until the closing holes resulting in a loss over 6 matches.

YE Yang has a 1st and 2nd here, has started to find his game again and is a real go to player, when it comes to playing tough tracks well.  If Yang starts well, I expect he will stay around and challenge through the week.

In the Match Bets, I simply have to take Bradley to beat Westwood at a pretty massive 5/4.  Although Westwood has good form here and is generally playing well, he has in Bradley one of the finest players around right now to beat.  This is purely a price play.  I have Westwood only a marginal favourite, as I am increasingly concerned that his short game prowess is waning, which may stop him winning such events.

In the other match, I do not see Poulter getting the better of Rose.  Poulter was badly out of sorts last week in a format which has been arguably more career defining for him than his strokeplay results.  In opposition, Justin Rose finished inside the top 20 at the Northenr Trust Open, which gives a good pointer for this week that his ball-striking will see him challenge - a matchplay early exit is insignificant for Rose in my view.  I was close to selecting Rose this week outright, but do feel that he should have plenty of game to get past Poulter this week.

Finally, I have advised a play on Chris Kirk's finishing position in the sell market on Spreadex. Put Simply, I do not consider that a line of 50 is anywhere near the real likely finishing position for Kirk here.  Kirk is a lively outsider for me this week and if his game is right, he may well finish near the top of the leaderboard.  With a line of 50, we lose a maximum of 4 points if he misses the cut - I am hoping of course to see Kirk place top 20, which will give a minimum 6 points profit this week.  For further spread betting information, please take a look through my spread betting guide here http://onebettips.blogspot.com/p/spread-betting-guide.html

Regards

Dave (OneBet)

Racing - 29th Feb

Bangor
2.20 Golden Firebird 9/4 2 point win -2Pts

2.55 Storming Gale 3/1 2 point win +6PTs

3.25 Cantlow 6/1 1 point e/w - 2 PTs

3.55 Fabalu 6/1 1 point e/w +7.5PTs

4.25 Ebony River 12/1 1pt e/w  - 2Pts

4.55 Bagsy’s Bridge 7/2 2 point win - 2Pts

5.25 Basford Ben 13/2 1 pt e/w - 2Pts


+3.5Pts for the meeting


Folkestone

2.10 Regal Park 9/2 1 point win -1Pt

2.45 A Little Swifter 10/3 2 point win +8Pts

3.15 Knock Boy 13/8  2 point win - 2Pts

3.45 Lady Karabaya 9/2 2 point win +9PTs

4.15 Wide Receiver 5/2 2 point win - 2Pts 

4.45 Start Royal 11/8 2 point win +2.75 Pts

5.15 According to Trev 11/2 1 point win +5.5 Pts


+20.25 Pts for the meeting


Southwell

2.00 Milgen Bay Eve 2 point win - 2 PTs

2.35 Tears From Heaven 4/1 1 point win - 1Pt

3.05 Kudu Country 3/10 & 3.35 Solaras Exhibition 15/8 NAP  (Double) 2 point win - 2PTs

4.05 Bardolet 3/1 2 point win - 2Pts

4.35 Royal Entourage 7/2 2 point win +7 Pts

5.05 Salta Daubain 8/1 1 point win ew - 2Pts


Even for the Meeting


+23.75 for the day which we are very pleased with, hope you followed us in !!

Leicester 28th Feb

Leicester 28th Feb

2.30 Coolbeg 15/8 2 point win

3.00 Tuskar Rock 2 point win

3.30 Moscow Cahncer 2/1 2 point win

4.00 Blues And Twos 2/1 2 point win

4.30 Findlay’s Find 4/11 No Bet

5.00 Cesium 7/4 2 point win

Treble Blues and Twos, Findlays Find, Cesium - 2 Pt Win

Catterick 28th Feb

Catterick

2.25 Karmadice 3/1 - 2Pt Win

2.50 Floras Pride 3/1 2Pt win

3.20 Saviero 5/4  3 point win

3.50 & 4.20 (Double) Star Flight 4/11 & Stopped Out 13/8 - 2Pt Win

4.50 The Red Laird 9/2 2 point win

5.20 The Mongolian 8/1 1Pt e/w

Plumpton 27th Feb

Plumpton 27th February

2.15 Primaries 3/1 2 point Win - 2Pts

2.45 No Bet

3.15 Rocky Ryan 4/1 1 Win - 1Pts

3.45 Sarika 11/2 1 point win - 1 Pts

4.15 Speed Steed 5/1 1 point win - 1Pts

4.45 Amaury De Lusignan 15/8 3 point win +5.625 Pts

5.15 Schism 9/2 1 point win +4.5 Pts


Total Profit for today is +5.125, we also had a treble on the 2.45 fav that was a very short price so we added to the 4.45 and 5.15 and bagged a lovely 16Pts further profit. Not advised so wont be claiming it as blog profit!

Weekend Football Bets for Feb 26th

Both teams to score - Yes

FR Ligue 1: Brest vs Marseille 2pts at 23/20 (William Hill, 11/10 Bet365, Paddy Power) loss 2pts


Both teams to score - No
Serie A: Siena vs Palermo 1pt at 11/10 (Paddy Power, 19/20 William Hill, Bodog) loss 1pt
Serie A: Chievo vs Cesena 1pt at 5/6 (Paddy Power, 8/11 Various) W profit 0.83pts
La Liga: Sociedad va Mallorca 2pts at 17/20 (BetVictor, 5/6 Various) W profit 1.7pts
Over 2.5 goals
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich vs Schalke 2pts at 4/7 (Various) loss 2pts

Total loss : -2.47pts

Super League - Sunday 26th Feb

Warrignton v Hull KR
Over 56 Pts - 6/4 (Betfred) - 3 Pts
Anytime Try Scorer - Kris Welham 11/4 (Ladbrokes) 1.5 PTs

Weekend Football BTS system 25th Feb

Both teams to score - Yes
1pt Lyon vs PSG at 10/11 (William Hill, 4/5 Various) W Profit 0.91pts

Over 2.5 goals
2 points Morecambe versus Southend at 7/8 (188Bet, 4/5 Coral, Bet365) Loss 2 points
1 point Stuttgart vs Freiburg at 4/6 (Various) W Profit 0.67pts


Correcr score
1pt Charlton 1-1 Stevenage at at 6/1 (Various) Loss 1pt

Total away goals betting
1pt Santander versus Sp Gijon - Gijon to score 0 goals at 11/8 (BetVictor, 23/20 William Hill) Loss 1pt





Already advised
Both teams to score - Yes
1pt Mancetser vs Blackburn at 19/20 (Willaim Hill, 18/19 BWin) Loss 1pt
2pts Notts County vs Chesterfield at 8/11 (Various) Loss 2pts
1.5pts Scunthorpe vs Brentford at 8/11 (Betvictor 4/6 Various) Loss 1.5pts

Both teams to score - No
2pts Aldershot vs Barnet at 21/20 (Stan James, Evens Various) Loss 2pts

Correct score
0.5pts Scunthrope 1-1 Brentford at 6/1 (Various) Loss 0.5pts

Over 2.5 goals
2pts Chelsea vs Bolton at 8/15 (Various) Won Profit 1.07pts

Under 2.5 goals
1pt Boro vs Reading at 8/13 (Betfred, Skybet) Won 0.53pts

Total loss : 7.82pts

Football BTS system 24th February

Both teams to score
2 points Dresden vs Dusiburg at 8/13 (Various) Loss 2 points

Previously advised this week (via Twitter)
22nd Feb
2pts BTS Arbroath/Forfar at 8/13 W Profit 1.23 points
1pt York/Gateshead over 2.5 goals at 8/11 W Profit 0.73 points

21st Feb
1pt Under 10 corners Crewe/Accrington at 11/10 Loss 1 point
1pt Over 11 corners Oxford/Barnet at 5/6 W Profit 0.83 points
2pts Bologna vs Fiorentina Both teams to score - No at 10/11 W Profit 1.82 points
2pts East Fife vs Dumbarton over 2.5 goals at 8/13 W Profit 1.23 points
1.5pts Barrow vs Luton Both teams to score - Yes Loss 1.5 points
1.5pts Scunthrope vs Walsall Both teams to score - Yes Loss 1.5points

Total loss : 0.16pts

Super League Weekend Selections

Saints v Catalans
Total Points - Over 50 - 11/10 (William Hill) 2 Pt Win
Anytime Try Scorer 2/1 - James Roby 2Pts

Widnes v Leeds
Total Points - Over 56 6/4 (Betfred) 3 Pt Win

Mayakoba Golf Classic Tips 23rd February

1pt Ew Roberto Castro at 125/1 (Totesport, Coral, BetFred) Loss 2pts
0.5pt EW Eric Compton at 150/ 1 (Coral, Skybet) Loss 1pt
1pt Ew Heath Slocum at 40/1 (Bet365) Loss 2pts
1pt EW Michael Thompson at 50/1 (Betfred, 45s Loss 2pts
The tournament
A good tipping week last week, with 5 of the 8 golfers I had in consideration for the Northern Trust Open finishing T4th or better.  A real frustration that profit was only marginal given this, but we are on the right track.  This week is a trickier proposition, with a little more finesse required to dissect the field.
From research it seems that there is some value in siding with experience this week, with previous winners such as Funk, Beckman and Johnson Wagner all having previously won on tour before adding a welcome and somewhat surprising additional W to their CV here.
An ability to course manage and keep the ball on the fairways and greens, particularly when the wind blows, makes this a thinker's challenge rather than a bombers haven.  It is no surprise therefore to see that the then 47 year old Funk won this event in 2007 and the likes of John Cook (3rd) and Tom Lehman (13th), challenge strongly last year also.
So, I want players who can control their game this week and play consistent tee to green golf.  I also want to consider good wedge players, given a number of shots on this short course will require a lofted club in to the green.
Motivation is another key theme here this week.  The allure of trying to lock up playing privileges makes this a potentially stand out tournament in the first few months of the year for a number of players.  Occurring in the same week as the Accenture Matchplay, the field is littered with players who do not often get the job done. This is a great chance for a player who may not show up week in week out to gain a big result and secure their card for the next two years.  
The Selections
There are 6 men under 30/1 for this event and all have reasonable claims this week.  However, I will overlook them all.  Levin arguably has the best credentials for me, given his strong recent form.  I am most impressed by his 9th in the AT&T Pebble Beach, which included a very ordinary round on the much easier Monterey course.  With the wind likely to be a factor this week, his ability to play tough courses well may stand him in good stead here.
The likes of Jarrod Lyle and Brian Gay have accuracy as their main weapon, with a sound wedge game also a real feature.  However, Gay is maddeningly inconsistent (I know, I have backed him enough) and, despite a very good record here including a win, I have to leave alone quotes no better than 16/1.  Similarly, Jarrod Lyle's stand out result last week does not make him a 20/1 shot in my eyes.  Charles Howell III does not win often enough despite his obvious ability to get the job done.  Rory Sabbattini is in one of his familiar periods in which he is at odds with himself and his game.  By no means definitive, but I question whether he will be fully on his game if a couple of shots go awry and conditions stiffen.
Finally, defending champion Johnson Wagner is back and made some very positive comments about the event having won last year.  Wagner is in good form of course having won already this season, but I can't trust him to get it done at 14s.
So first, two players who have graduated on to the main tour this year and have started in quite effective fashion.  Neither ticks the box for experience, but both did well on the Nationwide tour in Mexico last year. Eric Compton, despite winning the event on the Nationwide tour last year, is rightly the bigger odds of the two, having not shown as much consistency as Castro on the main tour.  However, I believe he is worth having on side here in an event which will throw up some 'surprises' at the head of the field.
Castro I rather like.  His 4th in Mexico last year is in at least useful.  However, it is his recent prowess from tee to green that catches my eye here.  Using my adjusted rankings, I have Compton 26th for recent driving accuracy and 27th for GIR, whch in this field ranks him amongst the very best.  I believe he has a real chance to have a run in this event if he retains that sort of control.  Castro's putting stats are also useful and I am hopefully that he can really get the flat stick working to give us a chance of a big pay out.
At 40/1 Heath Slocum is my shortest priced pick this week.  He last played here in 2010, finishing 13th.  In addition, his last to events at the WM Phoenix Open and AT&T Pebble Beach offer some hidden positives. In both events, Slocum has recovered from a poor first round to place solidly in the event.  His round ranks versus the field for his last 2 events read 105, 18, 18, 14, 134, 56, 7, 14.  So, if he can start better, he has a big claim this week.
Michael Thompson grabbed my attention again when scoring an excellent 17th last week on a very challenging track.  He had an excellent end to 2011, and after a slower start this year, he is threatening to again start contending.  In this sort of field, a good performance from Thompson will see him do just that.  Thompson missed the cut here last year, but then went on to produce three tour top 10s, followed by an excellent 3rd placed behind Westwood and Schwartzel in the Thai Golf Championship.
I have to an extent belied my initial statement regarding experience here, but I believe that in Slocum (experienced) and Castro, I have two of the most controlled players in the field at very attractive prices.  Compton and Thompson are more feel picks, with the former an attractive price and the latter a real threat if his form continues.  3 top 6 finishes in 4 events last year suggests that he can keep his hot form going in to this week.
I wanted to get Beckman onside, but initial quotes of 70/1 have long since disappeared.  At 11/2 for a top 10 finish, I would not put anybody off.  However, his erratic form stops me formally putting him up here.  the likes of Stroud and Huh were considered, with Chad Campbell very close given his recent stats.  However, I feel we have a good mix of players here who can keep us interested deep in to Sunday.

WGC Accenture Matchplay Tips

1pt EW Luke Donald at 18/1 (Totesport, Betfred)
1pt EW Sergio Garcia at 20/1 (Totesport, Betfred)
1pt EW Ben Crane at 66/1 (general)
1pt EW Webb Simpson at 30/1 (general)

All bets lost for 8pts lost over all

I am going to keep this relatively brief this week - on course indicators at least. The reason for this is that we are in Matchplay format - the remit is to find a player who can play tough for 6 days, demonstrating the right mix of flair and grit to get over the line against whichever opponent they face.
I could go over each match, analyse the likelihood of player A beating player B and then model how I think the whole tournament will pan out, but that is to an extent an exercise in futility. That there will be shocks is inevitable. That there are a number of marginal matches is also without question. I could also look at bets such as Watney to beat Clarke and decide to jeopardise my mortgage on the bet, but Clarke is not quite the roll-over he definitely would have been in his post-open winning haze at the end of last year. So, in the first round at least, I am going to keep my powder dry with respect to match bets.
So,how to dissect this event and give some meaningful value to the bets. Well, let's simplify things. The bookies offer 4 places here. So, let's pick a player from each quarter, knowing that we have a chance to have multiple representation at the semi-final stage. It makes no sense to me to back 2 players in the same bracket; I do not want my best case to be that I take one of my players out before they reach the money stage. By picking a player from each bracket, I have 4 chances to win a bracket, each of which assure an overall profit if they so little as place. Easy huh?
So, after defining my strategy for selections, I have to pick the type of player in each bracket who can reach the semi-final. My main brief is to find match players.......it sounds simple, but this is easily overlooked when looking at the array of talent on show. More specifically, I want players who consistently make those difficult up and downs and hole out for crucial hole wins and halfs. Recent match play winners such as Donald, Ogilvy and Poulter and strong players in Ryder cup and Presidents cup renewals display these attributes readily. I want also to have either form players or players who have proven Matchplay credentials on side. I don't see the point in risking that George Coetzee, Nicholas Colsaerts or the many other talented players on show can turn up here, win 6 matches against the world's best and walk away with the title.
So, let's look at the brackets. Luke Donald is a must pick for me. He was quite sensational last year in blowing away all comers. Like last year, he is quite light of schedule in the build up to the event and his indifferent showing lat week is better than the horror show 2nd round and MC of last year ahead of the event. As mentioned, it is tough to call how the matches pan out, but Donald can beat Els with plenty to spare; Els will not punish his opponent readily enough given his current putting woes. After that, Dufner/Hanson deserve respect but should not cause undue worry. The next round looks tough, with Choi, Snedeker, Goosen or Stanley all posing a difficult challenge. But, the fact that is a strong quartet means that staying away for them, at least at this stage, is a must. The last test could see Dustin Johnson in the quarter finals, but I am actually more concerned about the round before. Luke at greater than 4/1 for the place looks very strong here.
In the Player bracket I have gone for Garcia. This is such a tough bracket, with the likes of McIlroy, Poulter, Ogilvy, Day, Schwartzel and Keegan Bradley all challenging, not to mention a certain titanic clash with Jimenez in the first match for Sergio. But, I like best that one of the most revered Ryder cuppers of the current era has really found his zeal for the game again. Garcia is a little frail sometimes at the business end of big events, but not in Match play. Garcia can and probably will beat anybody if on his game on a given day.
The Jones bracket is also extremely tough and filled with potential winners. I think a fit Stricker is my clear favourite here, but I have enough questions about him over 6 days to omit him from my staking plan. Similarly, Kaymer is hinting at finding his best game, but I would not have supreme confidence in any given match up. So, I am going with a live outsider capable of headline wins such as that here last year, is in form and can make a string of putts when needed to close out an opponent. Step forward Ben Crane, who I believe can really give us a run........if he can get running by edging out Bubba in the opener. The bet could die in round 1, but at 66/1 outright, this offers great value for me.
Finally, the Snead bracket. Big questions here over the big names for me. Westwood has been trying for a decade to get beyond round 2 here and in Colsaerts, may find an opponent who extends that miserable record for him. Woods missed enough short putts on Sunday at Pebble beach to question whether his short odds are really value. Watney has decent credentials but has been very inconsistent of late. I prefer to look to the bottom half of the bracket, which sees Webb Simpson offered the kindest first two matches of all of the leading players. Manassero, followed by Quiros/Laird is about as good as it is going to get here. Simpson, after a stellar 2012 and strong Presidents Cup, has a serious chance of winning those games. A possible match up with Haas awaits, followed by those mentioned earlier in the quarter finals. However, at 30/1, I think Webb is a strong value shout to win 4 matches and make the EW places.
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad

Super League 18th & 19th Feb

Huddersfield v Warrington
Huddersfield + 8Pts      2Pt Win @ Eve (Bet Victor) (Lost -2Pts)

Hull KR v Saints
Hull KR + 14Pts           2Pt Win @10/11 (Various) (Won + 1.82 Pts)


Bradford v Wigan
Wigan -12 PTs             2 Pt Win @ 10/11 (Various) (Won +1.82 Pts)

Widnes v Salford
Salford -6 Pts               2Pt Win @17/20 (Sporting Bet) (Won +1.7 Pts)

Hull v London Broncos
Hull - 16Pts                  1.5 Pts Win @11/10 (Bet 365) (Lost -1.5Pts)

Football Weekend Corner System Bets 17/18th Feb

Over corners bets
Championship - Ipswich vs Cardiff 1pt over 12 corners at Evens (Bet365)
League two - Burton vs Rotherham 2pts over 12 corners at Evens (Bet365)

Under corners bets
Bundeslige Leverkusen vs Augsburg 2pts under 9 corners at Evens (\bet365)

Corner handicap bets
La Liga - Getafe vs Espanyol 2pts Espanyol +1 to win the corner handicap at Evens (Bet365)
La Liga - Sevilla vs Ossasuna 2pts Sevilla -3 to win the corner h/cap at 11/10 (Bet365, Evens Stan James)
Serie A - Roma vs Parma 3pts Roma -2 to win the corner h/cap at Evens (Bet365)
Serie A - Cesena vs Milan 2pts Cesena -1 to win the corner h/cap at 6/5 (Bet365)
Scots Prem - Hibs vs Celtic 2pts Celtic -2 to win the corner h/cap at 5/4 (Bet365)

Weekend Football BTS System bets 17th/18th Feb

18 Hole Matchbets - Northern Trust Open February 16th

2pts Luke Donald to beat Adam Scott/Nick Watney at 13/10 (Totesport, Betfrd)

18 hole betting is a tricky business as a hot spell for one golfer can render your pick out of contention and conversely, as little a single poor shot by your pick can cost the whole bet.

I have looked in some detail at all of the 3-balls and I believe the bet above offers some stand-out value.  We called Barnes to beat Harrington last week - let's hope we fare as well today.

Logic for Luke
For Luke to be only marginal odds against in a match bet with 2 of the very best players in the game at first looks tight.  However, a little deeper digging suggests actually he should be a little tighter.  My first point with Donald is that we have to consider and let pass his horror round here in round 2 last year, which took him not only out of contention, but also beyond the cut line.  That aside, Donald has an impeccable record here and has been in the top 13 in 5 of the last 7 renewals of the event. So, proof positive that he can perform well, which allows me to regard 2011 as a blip.

Watney started well yesterday but faded to finish +2 by the end of his round.  Scott is also +2.  Luke Donald sits an encouraging -1 and in T14th.  However, this is almost indcidental when considering today.

My first encouragement comes from the fact that Scott played the front 9 (his back 9) in +1 yesterday and Watney played the same stretch in a miserable +5.  Whilst the course may not play so tough today, I always like the fact that players who struggle coming in on a Thursday have to face the same stretch going out on Friday.

In addition to this, I have looked at how the respective players perform when in a similar position in recent events and then I see the real value.  Put simply, Adam Scott (British Open aside) does not have any history in the last 18 months of following a below par first round with a strong 2nd round.  Scott has 11 top 10s in the last 18 months. His worst position in any of those events after day 1 is 33rd and that was the Australian PGA, which is a different kind of challenge to this week.  He sits 55th after round 1 here, 7 shots off Phil Mickelson.  In contrast, the times when he does not compete on day 2 if distant are numerous.  Watney is not dis-similar in this respect although the times he has started this poorly are relatively few.  In the last 18 months, his round rank after round 2 in which he has been outside the top 40 after day 1 read as follows : 58, 15, 132, 64, 45.  So, he usually advertises that his game is off in round 1 and confirms it in round 2.  Both players of course are fine players and can play well, so to believe in this bet, I need to have confidence that Luke can get it done.  I do.

When in the top 20 after round 1 over the same period, Luke's round ranks are as follows : 10, 10, 2, 8, 12, 2, 134, 26, 1, 3, 44, 10, 18, 10.

The 134th was the implosion here last year.  The 44th was the high prestige Deutsche Bank event.  That aside, Luke is highly likely to put in a top 20 display, which is highly likely to be good enough.  A bet for me.

Racing Tips 17th February

Newbury 17th February
12.10 &12.40 Sprinter Sacre & Long Run (Double) 6/4 Sportingbet - 5 Pts Win +7.5Pts
13.15 Zarkandar 3/1 - 2Pt Win + 6Pts
13.50 Montbazon 5/2 - 2 Pt Win + 5Pts
14.25 Gullinbursti 3/1 - 2Pt Win - 2Pts
14.55 Cedre Bleu 6/1 - 1Pt Win -1 Pts
15.30 Gevry Chambertin 3/1 - 2Pt Win - 1PTs

+13.5 Pts for today and a great days profit for the blog.

Avantha Masters tips

The Staking Plan
1.5pts EW Richie Ramsay at 33/1 (Various, but take the 6 places at Ladbrokes)

1pt EW Lorenzo Gagli at 60/1 (SportingBet, SkyBet, Bet365)

0.75pts EW Felipe Aguilar at (Various, but take the 6 places at Ladbrokes)

0.2pts EW Anirban Lahiri 1st round leader at 200/1 (BetVictor, 150/1 Various)

1pt Chowrasia to finish top 10 at 6/1 (Various)


For a brief synopsis of last week's result (near miss) on the European tour, please click on this link http://onebettips.blogspot.com/2012/02/dubai-desert-classic-tips.html



The Tournament
This years Avantha Masters throws up an interesting challenge in trying to find a likely winner.

Based in Delhi, the tournament has only been part of the European Tour for the last three years and has only been played on this course in 2010 and 2011.

The remit for prospering on this Arnold Palmer design is accuracy.  At a time of year when winds are likely, this tree-lined course demands accuracy and the ability to hit fairways and greens.

The course is relatively modest in length by today's standards, with 4 par 3s under 200 yards and 4 par 5s reachable in 2.  Ball-strikers are likely to thrive here.  Indeed, I place an ability to find the right level of the green above an ability to hole putts this week.

The selections
A quick glance at the stats and you see that Chowrasia has won 2 of the 3 editions of this event in 2009 and here last year.  In addition to that, he seems bullish ahead of his title defence and happy with his game.  However, I question his ability to get it done this year, given the class of the field around him.  That he may go well is distinctly possible, but to win it again would be quite a feat.  I like the top 10 play here, as it covers a solid week from Chowrasia, but insures against the likelihood of other players getting it done however Chowrasia plays.

Richie Ramsay is my strongest play this week.  His game is all about control.  On tour last year, Ramsay was 2nd in driving accuracy and 7th in greens hit.  Despite a fairly ordinary start to 2012, his natural game should see him finish well up the keaderboard come Sunday.  In considering tree-lined courses, Ramsay finished an eye-catching 3rd behind Garcia and Jimenez at Valderrama last year after a stunning first round 65.  Ranked first last week for driving accuracy, Ramsay only needs to find a little more with his irons and he will go extremely close this week.

Lorenzo Gagli made great strides on tour last year, with a string of headline finishes.  This year has started in a more subdued fashion, with two MCs in the last two events.  However, I am willing to overlook that as the credentials of Gagli for this type of golf course are excellent.  Gagli is in a similar mould to Ramsay; he averaged 8th in driving accuracy and 2nd in GIR on tour last year and again, has the control required to challenge this week.  I also note a very similar start last year to this before a 5th at the Sicilian Open, so the MC of last week is not necessarily definitive.  One thing I am sure of is that 60/1 will not be available for Gagli on many other occasions this year if he starts to find his groove.

Felipe Aguilar is an interesting option for this event.  A player with some history of success in Asia, his chances of success always increase when the possibility of windy conditions arise.  Aguilar had a great spell last year, probably the highlight of which was a T3rd at the Alfred Dunhill behind Hoey and McIlroy.  A solid but unspectacular 36th here last year, I believe that he really has the game to compete here this week and should be much shorter than 80/1.

Finally, I am willing to have a play on Lahiri in the first round leader market.  This is far from a random choice, as Lahiri time and again produces the boom/bust type of golf that lends itself more to a 1st round leader pick than an outright win in this class of field.  A quick glance at Lahiri's best results in 2011 (and earlier) support thid notion and on many occasions, it is with the freedom of playing in the 1st round thaty his best effort is produced.  Worth a play.


Players I omitted this week
Joost Luiten is a worthy favourite, having won his first tour event at the end of last year and started this year in solid if unspectacular fashion.  I might have picked him but for express concerns by the player himself that his irons were off last week.  Luiten is not the greatest of putters, but if on song, his ball-striking can certainly see him win this event.  However, there are enough questions for me to want to side with Ramsay and Gagli at bigger prices.

Gregory Havret would have been in my picks had he been 28/1.  It is as simple as that really.  Havret is a little too inconsistent for me to trust that he will turn up this week, although a strong T24th last week, a 6th at Valderram and real ball-striking ability make him an obvious candidate for the title.  I also have to dismiss Donaldson this week as he does not finish events off as well as I would need to trust a 20/1 quote.  He has a real chance here, if he can find the swagger required to beat the field.  Too often, Donaldson has a very good tounrmanet but not a stellar one.  His 10th last week is the perfect example.  I want to see that more of that edge to his game before I touch 20/1 quotes. Phil Mickelson was 25/1 last week............

A little look further down and I see John Daly extends his flirtation with the European tour.  Daly is in decent form and I noted a 2nd place at an Arnold Palmer designed track aat the 2009 Italian Open.  However, I must overlook him due to the call for accuracy over force here.

Jaidee and Singh, for their strengths in this part of the world and Wattel for his continued fine form were also considered but omitted.  In truth, we have a field here filled with players capable of winning, but without the consistency to sustain a high world ranking.  That is why the favourite is 18/1 and the field is relatively bunched in price.  Ramsay and Gagli are amongst the very best in this field in terms of consistent delivery on the tour and represent the more likely players (with Luiten) to feature.

Northern Trust Open Tips

The staking plan
1.5pts EW KEvin Na at (40/1 (Various) L 3points
1.5pts EW Aaron Baddeley at 35/1 (Bet365, Boyle) Loss 3 points
2pts Win Phil Mickelson at 10/1 (Paddy Power, Boyle) Loss 2 points
0.5pts EW Jimmy Walker at 100/1 (Various) and 2pts top 20 at 10/3 (Paddy Power, 3/1 Skybet) Result T4th, Profit 12.91 points

0.5pts EW double Luke Donald and Richie Ramsay (Avantha MAsters) at 577/1 (Various) Loss 1pt

Overall profit 3.91pts


The tournament
This week's Northern Trust Open at Riviera gives a real opportunity to back players with some belief that they might get it done.  This tournament often rewards favourite sons from the past, with course knowledge a particular trait here.  I feel able to readily consider many in the field "would be surprise winners" based upon this stat alone.

However, this view is over-simplistic.  This classic 7,300+ yard course is long enough to reward accuracy, but dangerous enough to punish imprecise players also.  One only has to look at the top 5 from 2010 (Stricker, Donald, Dustin, JB Holmes, Romero) to understand that looking for a single type of player here is short-sighted.

That said, we can really strongly look at some key traits in trying to find our winner this week.  First, an affinity to California and Riviera particularly is an advantage.  In terms of the type of golfer we want, the ability to find the putting surface and particularly, the right part of the putting surface consistently, will be key.  A great iron game allied to a sure putting stroke on fast, testing greens will be rewarded.  When a player does miss the green, ability around the green will also be an important feature.  Players who miss greens consistently here will drop shots at more courses than most others.

You may have observed that I am yet to mention driving.  It is less critical here, although length off the tee can really help to open up the par 5s to be attacked in 2.  To offset that, the impeccable record of Donald here shows there are other ways.  An ability to consistently course manage well and maximise on the birdie holes such as the par 5s are the most important aspects this week.

The selections
I have a hard time of it this week, because I strongly see the chances of several players.

Phil Mickelson - Won last week and alive again after a lean time.  Critically, 4th in GIR last week, which is a welcome and very relevant return to form ahead of this event.  2/1/1 here between 2007 and 2009.

Luke Donald -  5 top 13 finishes in 7 starts.  Don't let last year's 2nd round 79 and subsequent MC detract from the stunning record Donald has here.

Kevin Na - 3rd and 10th last 2 years.  Tour winner for the first time last year and better golf than ever since.  5th last week, 12th in scrambling on tour last year and 17th for GIR last week. 8th, 15th, 30th and 5th on last 4 California outings.

Aaron Baddeley - last year's winner and almost a carbon copy of last year coming in to the event.  4th last week and 9th for GIR.  3 top 10s in the last 5 events in California.

Jimmy Walker - 4th last year and 9th last week.  Number 1 in my adjusted California ranks, with 4 top 10s in the last 5 events.

Dustin Johnson - 5th last time out.  3rd here in 2010.  Perfect high long ball flight shape for this event if on song.  Similar to Mickelson, but in much better form generally for the last two years.

Sergio Garcia - Dual winner at the end of last year, with professions this week that he is enjoying his golf like he did when 18 again.  ONe of the best ball-strikers in the game and arguably one of the best scramblers of all time.

Mark Wilson - 3 time winner in the last 13 months, all early in the season.  10th here in 08 and 19th last time out, which featured a best of day -7 final round.  Accurate player who keeps bogeys off the card with strong recent GIR and putting stats.  14th in GIR in winning the Humana Challenge

I could add a few other players, such as Rose, Mahan and Barnes, but the 8 men above represent the most likely for me to feature high up on the final leaderboard come Sunday.  However, I need to whittle the list down a little.

Dustin Johnson moved ominously in to form last week.  However, I am going to leave him out due to lingering concerns over his consistency.  If his irons are even slightly off, then the man who ranked 176th on tour last year for scrambling will find that bogeys continually hamper his progress.  Sergio Garcia is reluctantly overlooked due to doubts over his recent lack of exposure to the course and the fact he hasn't been ready over 4 rounds so far this year.  Mark Wilson is also reluctantly left out, due to some concerns over his consistency a couple of weeks ago, which will be found out here if repeated.

This leaves me with my final 5.  Strange though it may sound, I am going to play Luke Donald in a double only with Richie Ramsay in the Avantha Masters.  I am not convinced he has the game to win here, given the rustiness suggested in European tour appearances this year.  However, at 4/1 place odds, I am happy to attempt a double up with Ramsay, who also seems well able to place in India.  The place terms offer effective odds greater than 40/1, which feels like an outstanding price for this bet.  Both certainly can win too and I am hopeful that there is some hope/excitement come Sunday.

Phil is win only.  At 10/1, I do not trust he is a a shoe-in for a place.  He either gets it done or not this week.  I do not see much middle ground from him.

Walker, despite the recent good finish and impeccable Califronia credentials, has most to find to win here.  I am happy with the dual play advised as the top 20 offers a nice opportunity to recoup losses elsewhere should they arise.

Kevin Na and Aaron Baddeley are irresistible for me this week and are backed accordingly.

Total Corner System 14th February

1pt Carlisle vs Tranmere OVER 12 corners at 11/10 (Bet365) Loss 1pt
1pt Watford vs Leicester UNDER 10 corners at 11/10 (Bet365) Loss 1pt

Total loss 2pts

BTS System 14th Feb

Both teams to score - Yes
1.4pts Carlisle vs Tranmere at 8/11 (Various) Loss 1.4pts
1.3pts Cardiff vs Peterborough at 4/5 (Ladbrokes, 8/11 Various) W Profit 1.04pts
1.5pts Bradford vs Port Vale at 10/11 (Skybet/William Hill) W Profit 1.36pts


Both teams to score - No
1pt Brighton vs Millwall at 10/11 (BetVictor, 4/5 Various) Loss 1pt
1pts Bristol City vs Crystal Palace at 17/20 (BetVictor, 5/6 Stan James) Loss 1pt
1pt Aldershot vs Hereford at 10/11 (BetVictor, 5/6 Various) W Profit 0.91pts

Overall loss 0.09pts

Total corners bets 12th Feb 2012

Augsburg vs Nurmberg 2 points under 9 total corners at evens with Bet365 W Profit 2 points
Atalanta vs Lecce 2 points under 10 total corners at evens with Bet365 W Profit 2 points
Both advised bets are even money, so we need a winner from 2 to break even. All 4 teams above have consistently struggled to force corners this season, whilst showing an ability to limit corners from their opponents at the other end. I believe there is a good chance that both bets will land; usually a team falling behind is galvanised to go for it more and hence threaten to force more corners. However, it is not really in the armour of these sides.
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad

AT&T Pebble Beach 18 Hole Matchbets 12th Feb

1.5pts Ricky Barnes to beat Padraig Harrington at 11/8 (Totesport, Betfred)
Padraig Harrington played Pebble Beach extremely well on Friday, shooting a -6 score.  However, I am willing to oppose him here in a match bet with Ricky Barnes, who is much higher than the sort of 11/10 range I expected.  Barnes himself played nicely at Pebble yesterday, with a solid -2 score.
There are a few reasons to be keen on this bet.  First, Barnes is having a solid week, with only 3 dropped shots through 54 holes.  Harrington, after a Bogey, Par, Bogey, Double bogey, Par finish yesterday, has now dropped 8 shots this week.  This has been a long week, with rounds taking in the region of 6 hours to complete.  I want to side with players who keep bogeys off the card for Sunday and there is a now familiar feeling that Harrington is falling off his game slightly.
Barnes has not contended much in recent times.  However, when considering his ability to compete on day 4 in exalted company, we do not have to go far back to remember a string of majors in which Barnes contended strongly at the head of the field.  In more recent times, Barnes finished 4th at last year's Honda Classic, shooting the 5th best score of the day to finish in the paying places for punters.  Also, at the Heritgae, Barnes entered the final round in 5th and improved to 4th with a solid 69.
Harrington is a complete contrast to that.  In his major winning prime of a few years ago, Harrington was a tenacious day 4 competitor to be feared down the home stretch.  However, recent events have suggested a fragility when in contention.  At the recent Volvo Golf Champions event in South Africa, Harrington fell away from contention with a poor last day.  At the Iskandar Johor Open (which he was defending), Harrington was just off the lead before a similar failure.  Similarly, at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, Harrington produced an average day 4 to fall away from contention, while the likes of winner Hoey and McIlroy kicked on and really went for the title.  Harrington echoes Goosen in this respect for me.  Former greats in the game who still have the attributes to shoot low scores and contend, but who somehow lack that mental edge required to drive a big result.  Whether I am proved wrong today or in the near future is of course possible, but there are enough signs to question Harrington here.
I expected Barnes to be 11/10 and personally regard him a marginal favourite.  This is a must bet for me

Wigan v Leeds Superleague

Over 8 tries 11/8 (Stan James) 2Pts
Anytime Tryscorer - Sam Tomkins 5/4 (Skybet 1.5 Pts)

Football Tips BTS system 10th-13th Feb 2012

Dear all,

The Cottbus bet advised earlier on Twitter won to give us a nice start.  Let's hope we continue in the same vein over the weekend

Premier League bets February 11th 2012

Dear all,

Latest bets below.  I may add further bets as corner odds become more available.  If so, I will advise on twitter as well as posting here

Manchester United vs Liverpool

Manchester United vs Liverpool 1pt most goals 2nds half at 6/5 (Coral, 11/10 Stan James)

Manchester United vs Liveprool 1pt under 1.5 goals at 11/4 (Various)

Manchester United vs Liveprool 1pt HT draw at 5/4 (Bet365, 6/5 Coral)

Blackburn vs QPR  Blackburn vs QPR 1pt Both teams to score - No at 6/5 (StanJames, 11/10 various)

Bolton vs Wigan  Bolton vs Wigan 1pt over 2.5 goals at 7/9 (188 Bet, 8/11 Various)

Bolton vs Wigan 1pt Bolton HT/FT at 12/5 (Ladbrokes. 23/10 188Bet)

Everton vs Chelsea  Everton vs Chelsea 1pt Everton to lead at HT at 10/3 (William Hill, 3/1 Stan James)

Fulham vs Stoke  Fulham vs Stoke 1pt Both teams to score at 10/11 (Various)

Sunderland vs Arsenal  Sunderland vs Arsenal 1pt over 2.5 goals at 22/23 (188Bet, 10/11 Coral/Hills)

Sunderland vs Arsneal 1pt Sundlernad HT/FT at 11/2 (BlueSq, 888Sport, 188Bet)

Swansea vs Norwich  Swansea vs Norwich 1pt under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (BetVictor, 9/10 Bet365)

Swansea vs Norwich 1pt Swansea HT/Draw FT at 16/1 (Various)

Tottenham vs Newcastle  Tottenham vs Newcastle 1pt Both teams to score at 19/20 (William Hill, 10/11 Ladbrokes)

Saints v Salford

Saints 2nd game of the campaign is at their new home "Langtree Park" and it is sure to become the new fortress and this game offers a great opportunity for the free flowing Saints to score some tries. Albeit early in the season Saints have some great attacking options in Lance Hohaia, Jon Wilkin, Jonny Lomax and the two players earmarked below for anytime try scorer.

Some early value offered with Sky Bet on try scorers for this game. James Roby and Lee Gaskell play a leading role in driving Saints forward throughout the game. They are attacking players and are offered at the prices below which are worth snapping up early:

Anytime Try Scorer (Sky Bet)
Lee Gaskell 11/8 - 2 Pts
James Roby 7/4 - 2 Pts

Dubai Desert Classic Tips

Post tournament synopsis


Last week's event in Dubai was a frustrating one.  Of the selections, Bjorn and Colsaerts both failed by a single shot to make the money places - both failed to birdie the par 5 18th to steal some money back for the OneBet team.


Both players will look back and think they could have won the event.  Bjorn in particular had the event in his grasp.  After 14 holes of the third round, Bjorn shared the lead with Westwood.  However, 3 bogeys in his last 4 holes and a slow start to round 4 put paid to any hopes of winning the event.  I have backed Bjorn without success recently.  I probably need to see quotes of 30/1 before I consider him again at present as his consistency is not quite there over 4 days.  


Colsaerts spent a day standing still and that really cost him overall. He played quite well in round 4, but frustratingly, bogeys at semi-regular intervals consistently derailed his charge and he fell just short.


Westwood should have won the event. I advised he was the best bet of the leading trio, but the inability to take a tournament that was just waiting for him to do so confirms that it was wise to lay off the 11/1 quotes.  


Cabrera-Bello won well in the end and capitalised on the door that Westwood left wide open.  After he headed the leaderboard on Thursday, I thought "him again".  One to watch for this sort of market as he is a streaky player that can go on hot runs during a round.  



1.5pts EW Thomas Bjorn at 22/1 (Various)
1pt EW Nicolas Colsaerts at 35/1 (Vairious)
1pt EW Paul Lawrie at 35/1 (Bet365, Sporting Bet)
0.5pt EW joost Luiten at 80/1 (Bodog, 6places.  66s general).
0.2pts EW Raphael Jacquelin at 150/1 (Bet365, Skybet)
0.3pts EW Michael Hoey at 110/1 (Bet365, 100s general)


2 points Michael Hoey to beat Mark Foster and George Coetzee in an 18 hole match bet at 23/10 (Stan James, 9/4 skyBet, Betvictor)

Tournament guide
So, time to back up our 50/1 winner from last week with another this.  That is the plan at least.  


I make no apologies for going back this week to familiar faces in the form of Bjorn, Lawrie, Jacquelin and Luiten.  We remain on the desert swing the headline brief is similar in a number of respects.  I want ball strikers this week who can finesse their way around the course.  I also need players who can handle any wind that is likely to come.  Putting is less prevalent here than recent events, but the greens are fast enough to cause problems. Finally, I need players who are already in form and confident in their game when tackling what is a difficult track if the wind blows.  


As befits the most prestigious of the desert swing events, a fine European field has assembled again.  The event has been won largely by big name players in good form, although the likes of O'Meara, Coceres and Derksen certainly buck that trend.


If the wind does blow we may need a little luck in the timing of our players out, although by picking 7 we have ensured that most of the day is covered!  




The players I didn't pick
The claims of Mcilroy, Kaymer and Westwood are obvious here.  Westwood has never won the event, but just failed to beat Jimenez a couple of years ago, losing out only in a play-off.  So, no question he can get the job done.  In terms of value, Westwood is actually the closest to getting a pick this week, but he leaves enough doubt with recent form to suggest he might fall short again; I would want to go win only on any of the top 3 if I were to back them.  Mcllroy, winner in 2009, is rightly a clear favourite.  His form is stunning.  However, I am not willing to take a 4/1 price on him getting it done here.  For such a talent, his win to tournament ratio is pretty dire.  Until he starts to win consistently, 4/1 is a long way from a backable price, especially in this field.  If you consider that he was 7/1 a couple of tournaments back and failed to win there, then he must be left alone.  Kaymer's win ratio is well documented, but despite a decent finish last time out, he was never going to win that event.  He does not look like winning right now and this is not the tournament to back a turn around in his game.  Kaymer is a horses for courses kind of player (usually), so I happily omit him here.


Robert Rock is a nervous omission, given the win last time out on a course that I believe he was not really well suited to win at.  Quiros also has great credentials in the desert as does Dyson, but I believe the bookmakers have defended their position well enough at the prices offered.  Peter Hanson has some history in this event also, but I do not like quotations anywhere near 20/1 for him.  



This week's tips
Had Thomas Bjorn not shot +7 in round1 last week, we would be looking at a 3rd and another place finish in the last two events and a 16/1 quotation.  So, whilst his bad round was terrible for my assured tip last week, it is good news this.  Bjorn won this event in 2001, so can clearly play the course - he fended off Tiger that time.  But, we can place that indicator as secondary to his recent form (79 aside) on the desert swing, allied to his triple winning 2011 and proclamations of being back in love with golf.  My concern is that he has not started well enough in either of the last two events to have a shot at the win.  A good start this week and we should be close on Sunday.


Nicolas Colsaerts is a fine young player, who continues to perform well on tour and threaten to add to his win in 2011.  Critically here, we have a man who is highly adept at hitting greens.  Had I not spent so much on the outrights, I would have considered a 1st round leader bet on Colsaerts, who led the field in his season opening event and did so also on tour last year.  But, I am happy to take his outright price here.  Colsaerts is 15 points higher in the betting than Quiros, but in undoubtedly better form.  He is worth a punt at 40s this week.


I said everything about Paul Lawrie in my pre and post tounrament analysis of Lawire http://onebettips.blogspot.com/2012/02/commercial-bank-qatar-masters-tips.html and so will say little more than the fact that he is the form man in Europe and states himself this is the best he has ever played.  I can not omit him at the moment and while odds are so much bigger than the top 6 in the betting.  


I backed Luiten at 100s a few weeks back, saying that his ball striking was exactly as required for the event.  However, my stated concerns over his putting on a tougher track were sadly born out by a good but non-challenging 4 days.  This week, I believe the lessened putting challenge can potentially bring Luiten in to play.  If he can gain some confidence on day 1, expect him to go well.


Michael Hoey won twice last year, but remains under-rated by bookmakers.  the two factors which appeal this week are his T15 last year, which shows he can handle the track.  Also, Hoey finished 12th last year in Qatar - an event where I would not really expect him to feature.  45th last year in Qatar before a T15 here, my hope is that he is arriving in better form and can get in the mix.  when Hoey is in the mix, he is actually one of the better finishers on tour.  I have backed Hoey in the 3-ball as Mark Foster has described the last two days of practice as amongst the worst of his career.  So, if we assume that carries in to the event, it is a matchbet with Coetzee.  Hoey was 9th in Abu Dhabi recently and led the field after day 1 of the Alfred Dunhill.  Although this bet is by no means a given, at 23/10 it is great value.


Finally, a tip which will turn @onebetuk cold.  I tipped Jacquelin at 125s last week and he missed the cut.  Well, he is back at 150s this and I want to have him onside again.  the price is farcical for a player of his ability in my view.  See the above blog for wider thoughts on Jacquelin, but his T20th here shows he can play the course.  A fine ball striker and scrambler, he has game to challenge here.  

At&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Tips

1.5pts EW Hunter Mahan at 22/1 (take Bodog's 6 places, but 22s widely avaialble)
1pt EW Spencer Levin at 40/1 (Various)
1pt EW Sean O'Hair at 50/1 (Various)
0.5pts EW Cameron Tringale at 90/1 (Bet365, 80s various)

Tournament guide
Anybody who read my synopsis for the Human challenge - a Pro-am event played on 3 different courses - might be anticipating a series of highly priced picks who can turn up in a random format event.  However, the Pebble Beach event is an entirely different proposition, littered with big name winners and perhaps more importantly, winners who have deomanstrated recently that their overall game is in fine order.

Spyglass, Monterey and Pebble Beach are used in rotation for this event, with Pebble Beach used again for the final round.  All are around 6800 yards, with Monterey being by far the easiest course.  Despite the modest yardage, Pebble Beach and Spyglass actually ranked amongst the toughest par 72 courses on tour last year.

Technical tracks such as Spyglass and Pebble Beach demand accuracy and a player who is confident in their game and ball striking.  Confidence is bred by players who have turned up well in recent tournaments and demonstrated they are playing well.  You are unlikely to find your game this week, but will be found out if all elements are not working well.  Previous winners are a succession of players who have demonstrated form in recent build up tournaments.

The challenge of Spyglass and Pebble Beach does not diminish the importance of Monterey either.  The headline brief is to get the scoring done at Monterey and stay solid in the other 3 rounds.  Phil Mickelson, a previous winner in 2007, largely failed to challege last year due to a poor 71 at Monterey.

That said, the pro-am format does also give a different atmosphere to normal events, with the amateurs present even after the cut line is introduced at the end of day 3.

The players I didn't pick
So to the selections.  I am looking for players who hit greens, can keep themselves out of trouble and putt really well on what are tricky Po Annua greens.  I also want players in form, preferably with demonstrable prowess previously at Pebble Beach.  Coastal course positives are also sought, with British Open prowess also a consideration.  Finally, scrambling may be key due to the small greens and likelihood that GIR will be lower than usual this week for most.

At the head of the market, I am willing to overlook the top four.  A lot of people are srabbling to get on Woods while the 11/2 is still there - Woods opened at a general 6/1.  However, given all I have said about players having to be at one with their game, I still have enough doubts in Woods to leave him alone.  Sure, he has a definite chance, but I am not happy enough to take the outright W price and I certainly am not putting my faith in a big bet to get a marginal place return.

Dustin Johnson has won twice here recently and undoubtedly has the right credentials to get it done.  However, there are too many questions about his form.  I opposed him correctly in a match bet last week and he showed no signs at all that he was in the right place to come and win here.  Fowler should be regularly competing for tournament victories.  That he is not is something that is not ability based and he will surely get there.  However, while he does, I am happy to back against him finding the consistency that deserted him last week.

Phil's odds have inevitably contracted.  Had the 25/1 still been avaialble, I might have considered him this week.  However, his form in the key areas is fairly abject in recent weeks and he is overlooked.

A quick word about Bryce Molder.  I wanted to pick him, but can't at the prices offered.  But, a serious chance this week.

This week's tips
Hunter Mahan, on the other hand, is playing very nicely and has attractive stats in driving accuracy, GIR and putting, all of which I believe will be key this week.  A fine player and in form, I expect him to put up a big challenge.

Spencer Levin should have won last week and effectively gave the title away.  However, I am willing to back the fact that he arrives this week of clear mind and able to produce the sort of game that fits this week's brief perfectly.  Levin is a very good player of tough tracks.  He finished 9th in the Canadian Open last year at Shaughnessey, exactly the sort of positive sign that we need to see ahead of this week.  Indeed, Levin had a string of strong results early season (including T4 here) at tougher courses, before fading in the middle of the year.  If he is in contention after round 1, we can expect a good run from him this week.  I would also point you twards the first round leader market with Levin.  He is playing Monterey first, has been 1st and 3rd after round 1 in his last two events, and led the field by round 1 three times in the first 13 weeks of 2011.  I can only see prices on Betfair thus far (35s), but well worth a consideration.  I hoped he would play Monterey first, as his swing and confidence will be less examined on that course, which gives the outright bet the best chance after the issues in round 4 last week.

Sean O'Hair makes our team at 50/1.  O'Hair won the aforementioned Canadian Open last year, since which time he has strung together a series of good performances.  A fine striker of the ball, and with two top 40 finishes in the last two years when in poorer form, O'Hair can step up here this week.  Also, he has had strong results in the past in the British Open.

Finally, a small play on Camron Tringale.  Tringale finished a creditable 4th at the recent Farmers Insurance Open and, away from the main tour, missed a 12 footer to win the Pebble Beach Invitational in November 2011 (he then missed the 2 footer for par and lost by a stroke).  I like the link between the Farmers and here, as there is a similar putting challenge for the players.  Tringale ranked 18th for putting at Torrey Pines.  Tringale starts at Spyglass and if he has a solid first round, he could give us a real run at bigger odds.

Racing Tips 7th February

Southwell 

1.15 Harry’s Yer Man 7/2  (Bet 365)- 2Pt Win

1.45 Dunaskin 6/1 -(Bet 365) 1 Pt Win

2.15 Magilini 7/2 (Bet 365) -1 Pt Win

2.45 Drawnfromthepast  4/5 (Various) -2 Pt Win

3.15 Derivatives, Aqua Ardens Str Fcast 1.57/1 - 2Pts 

3.45 Global Village 7/2 - 2Pt Win

4.15 Samasana 4/1 - 1Pt Win 

4.45 Unex Picasso 5/1 (Bet365) - 1Pt Win

Ayr 6th February

Ayr
13.30 Maes Choice 10/11 -  2 Pt Win
14.00 Sydney Paget Eve - 2 Pt Win +2 Pts
14.35 Lie Forrit 10/11 - 2 Pt Win
15.10 What a Dream 7/4 - 2 Pt Win
15.40 Neptune Equester 11/4 - 1 Pt Win
16.15 See The Legend 6/1 - 1Pt Win +6Pts
16.45 Im a Gangster 5/1 - 1Pt Win

Cheeky Accumulator today at Ayr - Mae's Choice, What A Dream, Sydney Paget, Lie Forrit..... 15.07/1..... 1 Pt Win


-1 Pts overall for the meeting which was disappointing given the quality of the Jockey and Horses selected. Well thats racing for you !

Wigan v Huddersfield (Sunday 5th Feb)

Sunday Super League - Wigan v Huddersfield Over 8.5 Tries 6/5 (Bet Victor & Ladbrokes) 2 Pts

Weekend football BTS system February 4th

Marginal profits yesterday.  Some attractive lines today.  Good luck!

Weekend football BTS system February 4th

Dear all,
Latest selections below.  Some important modifications made to the process, which hopefully will yield a nice return today

Total profit 0.36pts

London v Saints (Saturday 3rd Feb)

A new  name and a new look team with 9 changes for London who did beat Saints away from home last season. This however is a new look saints team having lost Eastmond, Pryce and James Graham, but now have a very strong half back pairing of Jonny Lomax and Lance Hohaia and I feel that Saints will be too strong on the day even giving 10 pts to London.

Saints -10 to Win @ 5/6 (Stan James) 3 Pt Win

Leeds v Hull KR (3rd February 2012)

Results below for the 2 meetings of these clubs last year which is proving excellent value for an even money bet of over 46 Pts with Bet365. I suspect this will not be there too long so get on it early!

There will be plenty more to come over the weekend so keep an eye out on the blog and Twitter for more feeds.......#SLvalue

Over 46 Pts @ Eve (Bet 365) - 3Pts
Anytime Try Scorer @ 11/8 (Ladbrokes) Kris Welham - 2 Pts

KO: 18:00, Venue: Headingley Carnegie Stadium, Att: 13,669

Leeds Rhinos (16) 44

T: Lee Smith, Ryan Hall 3, Weller Hauraki, Danny McGuire, Zak Hardaker, Brett Delaney,
G: Kevin Sinfield 6,
DG:

Hull Kingston Rovers (10)14

T: Ben Cockayne, Kris Welham, Craig Hall,
G: Michael Dobson,
DG:

KO: 15:15, Venue: Craven Park, Att: 8,673

Hull Kingston Rovers (24)38

T: Mick Vella, Kris Welham, Matt Cook, Scott Murrell, Liam Colbon, Sam Latus, Ben Galea,
G: Scott Murrell 5,
DG:

Leeds Rhinos (10) 28

T: Lee Smith, Kallum Watkins 2, Ryan Hall, Paul McShane,
G: Kevin Sinfield 4,
DG: