1.5pts EW Jim Furyk at 25/1 (Various)
0.75pts EW Nick Watney at 40/1 (Various)
0.75pt EW Sergio Garcia at 28/1 (Coral, BoyleSports)
0.75pts EW Ryan Moore at 55/1 (Stan James, 50/1 general)
For East Lake facts and figures click here
Hi all
The usual course/tournament form analysis below.
My tournament analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:
- Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
- Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
- Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.
- Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use. Aside from 2001 and 2003, East Lake has been the host course.
- There are 3 factors which dilute the effectiveness of going back to 2001 for course form
- Champions GC in Houston was the host course in 2001/2003, not East Lake
- Putting surfaces changed from Bentgrass to Bermudagreass in 2008
- The Tour Championship only became the FedEx cup finale (its current guise) in 2007.
As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. However, 23 out of 30 possible entrants do tee up, further confirming the quality of the field that assembles this week. Of the first-timers that do tee up this week, the likes of Robert Garrigus and a certain Rory McIlroy can not be ignored.
So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:
Tournament rank 1: Phil Mickelson, 12/1 general. 4th in FedEx standings
After 4 top 4 finishes in 6 events, including victory at the AT&T at Pebble and a dreadful bounce from a thin piece of temporary stand arguably costing him the Masters, Phil rather drifted away from the business end of tournament golf..........until the FedEx cup play-offs. A charging 4th at the Deutsche and 2nd at the BMW having co-led through 54 holes tells us Phil is back. And, he is number 1 ranked here on tournament form too. Phil was 5th here back in 2002 and, since 2007 when this became the FedEx cup climax and Bermuda grass greens arrived a year later, he has been a factor. 3rd in 2008, 1st in 2009 and 10th in 2011 tells you Phil may be hard to keep away from the sharp end next week. There are two ways of looking at recent results here. Phil was also 22nd in 2010. In the last two years then, Phil has "only" been 22nd and 10th in a 30 man field. 12/1 is a little tough to be on side with; 2 hot tournaments after a bleak mid-season makes 3/1 the place marginal, even in such a limited field,
Tournament rank 2: Jim Furyk 25/1 general. 18th in FedEx cup standings.
Now, this guy is interesting. Furyk did not make 2011 here, which is probably the only thing that has him out of top spot in the tournament ranks. Furyk finished 8th and 2nd here before the FedEx cup event switch in 2007. 11th in 2007 was only OK, but since the switch to Bentgrass in 2008, Furyk has been 6th and 7th before landing the whole thing by winning in 2010. It will take a stunning sequence of events for him to land the overall FedEx cup prize this time, but winning the tournament itself is not such a leap of faith. Furyk warms up nicely at this time of year. 2010 - 15th at the BMW and then 1st at the Tour Championship. 2011: 6th at the Deutsche and 22nd at the BMW. This year : 13th at the Deutsche and 9th at the BMW. I have left Furyk alone since his narrow failure at the US Open, but he makes my team again here.
Tournament rank 3: Luike Donald 20/1 general (22/1 Coral). 15th in FedEx cup standings
At the head of World golf, Rory McIlroy has steamed off in to the distance in terms of ranking, with Woods and Westwood also coming to the fore as the PGA FedEx Cup race nears its finale. Luke Donald, however, has been somewhat left behind. Last year, Donald finished 18th, 3rd, 4th and 3rd in the 4 play-off events. The year before, 15th, 2nd, 37th and 2nd. 10th, 26th and 28th in the first 3 events this year suggests his game is a little off. It is actually with the putter that Donald is surprisingly most off his game. He was top 20 for total putts in all play-off events last year, but nothing better than 27th so far this year. His scrambling was poor at the BMW too. Donald has been 3rd and 2nd last 2 years here and on the surface, 20/1 in a 30 man field looks attractive. However, there are too many players hitting better form for him to be taken here.
Tournament rank 4: Hunter Mahan 66/1 Various (70/1 SportingBet). 23rd in fedEx cup.
Barring injury, it was almost unthinkable that Hunter Mahan would have missed the Ryder Cup and found himself 70/1 and 23rd in the FedEx cup race. However, the impressive winner of the Shell Houston and WGC Matchplay has totally fallen away in the remainder of the year. In 15 events post Shell Houston, 1 top 10 betrays the quality of this golfer. 2nd last year and 5th in 2007, Mahan can clearly play this track. We are getting over 15/1 a place,but I can leave him even at that price. Mahan is not hitting his irons close and is not making birdies. I can't back that he turns that around here.
Tournament rank 5: Adam Scott 18/1 general. 21st in FedEx cup.
Aside from 6th here last year, Scott won before the format change in 2006. He is in good form too, with 6th and 7th in his last two events. My big reservation with Scott is whether he will putt well enough to land the prize here. Last year's top 5 were 1st, 10th, 3rd, 2nd and 8th in total putts. Scott putted a lot better last week, but may be found just short come next Sunday..
Tournament rank 6: Tiger Woods 6/1 Coral, 11/2 in other places. 2nd in FedEx cup
9 top 10s in 17 events, including 3 wins, Tiger is back isn't he? Well, nearly. And, Rory has come along and swept him aside in recent weeks. Tiger has won 3 times this year on courses where he has had proven success in the past. He only ranks 6th this year due to not making it in 2010 and 2011. His 4 results before that here? 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd. At a general 11/2, the place position just about covers the win part of the bet and many will think that is compelling enough to back each way - surely Woods will not be too far away. Woods is scrambling and putting well, which will be useful here. He is also striking his mid to long range irons beautifully when in position. I just can't quite have him at such short odds right now. Woods is in the pressure zone of knowing a win lands him the whole FedEx cup. The top 5 will be under a lot of pressure and, while Woods has more winning knowledge than all others, he has been a little susceptible in the heat of battle this year when it comes to the big events. Out of form recently, until a strong first three rounds last week. 2nd 2007 (Bentgrass) and 9th last year, plus Georgia affinity confirmed with his Masters win. A pass for me, although the place terms hold some appeal.
Tournament rank T8: Nick Watney, 40/1 general. 3rd in FedEx cup.
A lot of pressure for the top 5 entering the event. However, Watney has some interesting hidden claims here. When Furyk won with -8 in 2010, Watney played the weekend in -10 to place 4th. He can win this event if he hooks up. Being blown away at the PGA aside, Watney has 9 straight top 45s, 7 of which are top 21 finishes. He won two events ago and can be forgiven a bit of a mental snooze in the next two events. Watney likes Bermuda and his caddy reads the surfaces particularly well. Watney is very tempting at the odds given. I am going to play him at reduced stakes - the pressure of knowing it is all in his hands leaves me a little hesitant.
Tournament rank T8: Ernie Els, 50/1 general. 22nd in FedEx Cup.
6 events and nothing better than 26th since the Open, Els is a huge leap of faith. 7th 2010, 9th 2009 and 6th 2008 shows Els may choose here to improve. Consider match bets where he may be 6/4 or worse depending on his opponent.
Tournament rank 10: Steve Stricker. 33/1 general. 13th in Fedex Cup.
6th is Stricker's best finish here. Recent form none too clever either, although he is finding greens better than most.. A pass for me - Watney's 40s and Furyk's 25s are eminently better value.
Tournament rank 11: Sergio Garcia, 28/1 available, 25s general. 12th in FedEx Cup..
No appearances here since 2008, however 2nd that year and 4th the year before tells you Sergio likes this place. Sergio won 3 starts ago on BermudaGrass in landing the Wyndham. He also led the field for total putts at WGC Cadillac on Bermuda earlier this year. Sergio is driving well and hitting greens better than most. If he gets his putting groove back on Bermuda at a course where he has placed last two times he has played it, he should be a major player in this event. At 12th in the FedEx cup, he may just land the whole thing with a win. Importantly for Sergio, he may not realise how close he is to landing the FedEx cup until he walks off the course, as the permutations tend to switch often in this event. Sergio's temperament in strokeplay golf's biggest events is questionable, so he is backable from off the pace in the FedEx cup. I am going to have a reduced play on Sergio this week, who will hopefully be ready to dial in ahead of the Ryder Cup.
Tournament rank T12: Bo Van Petl, 35/1 available, 33/1 general. 19th in FedEx cup.
Bo always appeals because he almost nearly always plays better than his odds suggest. However, he so often just misses even a place. 9th here last year and 10th last week. I just overlook him here, due to the preference for Sergio/Watney/Furyk in this sort of price band.
Tournament rank T12: John Senden, 80/1 SkyBet, 661 various. 29th in FedEx cup
10th in 2009 is about all we have for Senden. Poor result last week. General indifferent putting means I can't back him here, even at such odds.
Tournament rank 14: Dustin Johnson, 16/1 general. 7th in FedEx cup.
3 poor finishes last 3 years here, but 3rd, 4th and 6th in his last 3 events. Johnson will have his backers, but not for me at the price, given abject course form. As Johnson has won in each of the last two years during the FedEx cup, pressure will have been high at East Lake. It still is, as he sits 7th in the standings. A swerve for me.
Tournament rank T15: Bubba Watson, 33/1 general. 11th in FedEx Cup
3 attempts, nothing better than 17th. Led the field for scoring on Sunday in the BMW to rocket up to 12th overall. Won in Georgia at the Masters this year too of course. Improved irons and scrambling last time out. Could surprise a few, but not the best midfielder to pick from for me.
Tournament rank T15: Justin Rose, 33/1 general. 24th in FedEx cup.
3 appearances, with only 11th back in 2007 as a best result. Better form at the BMW than recent efforts. Irons really back on song last week as he led the field in GIR. However, putting stats remain pretty dire. No better than 46th for strokes gained putting in 3 play-off events. Avoid.
Tournament rank T17: Jason Dufner, 25/1 general. 10th in FedEx cup.
13th and 19th here in 2 previous events is OK. 2 good rounds out of 4 in the last 3 events. If he puts it together, he contends again as he has for much of the season. Dufner's first tour win (Zurich, this year) was on Bermuda and he was 2nd at halfway in the Masters, also at Georgia. I can't back him this week, but he could get it done.
Tournament rank T17: Matt Kuchar, 50/1 general. 16th in Fed Ex cup.
2 poor finishes here in the last 2 years and a very poor play-off sequence to date. 54th last week, despite 2nd in strokes gained putting and good scrambling stats. Irons need to improve a lot for him to feature.
Tournament rank 19th: Ryan Moore, 50/1 general. 28th in fed ex cup.
9th 2010 in his only appearance - interesting. Moore has finished 24th, 10th and 10th in the play-offs to date to make East Lake this week having been way off the pace coming in. Good iron play, 4th in proximity to the hole last week and performing well on and around the green, Moore is tempting at the price. Moore's 9th here in 2010 came off 3rd at the BMW, so can he can ride two hot rounds in the play-offs. Prior to the play-offs, Moore has had 4 top 10s, 3 of which came in a run of 4 events. I am going to take him to ride the momentum once more and feature, at what are tasty odds for one of the very best form players coming in.
Tournament rank 20th: Brandt Snedeker, 401 general, 5th in FedEx cup
Big pressure on Snedeker this week, knowing a win means 11.4m US dollars. 16th and 29th in two tries here is not overly encouraging either. Also, having placed 2nd and 6th in the first 2 play-off events, Snedeker produced 4 average to poor rounds at TPC Boston last time. give me Watney of the 40/1 shots instead please.
Tournament rank T21st: Carl Pettersson, 75/1 Stan James, 66/1 general. 17th in FedEx cup.
21st in 2008 and 16th in 2006 here are the only indicators we have, although Pettersson is a better player now of course. However, he arrives having done nothing since his fine PGA and subsequent Wyndham showing. I am going to leave Pettersson, although he is close to being backed purely on his price.
Tournament rank T21st : Keegan Bradley, 40/1 general. 14th in FedEx cup.
A useful 11th in his maiden appearance last year, Bradley has been 1st (Bridgestone), 3rd (PGA defence) and 13th (Deutsche) in the last 5 events. Useful form, although he had a poor BMW last time out. Will need to putt a lot better than he did last time out to feature.
Tournament rank T21st : Webb Simpson, 45/1 available 40/1 general. 25th in FedEx cup.
Webb entered last season's Tour Championship 1st in the FedEx cup standings. Not so this time. Webb's debut last year, perhaps understandably, was underwhelming. Webb swapped good irons for good putting last time out. If he can put it together, he may feature. However, it is a leap of faith that 40/1 does not justify.
Rory - Obvious favourite here. Can he really win 3 straight, hold his FedEx lead and land a huge prize? Maybe, but I can't take him at 5/1 given that and his debut here. He has arguably the best chance, but enough arguments for me to want 8s.
Lee Westwood - 16s and in good form. 8th in the race, arguably his biggest title - the FedEx cup - may well be landed if he were to win here. I tend to look for Westwood when it is Bentgrass greens in the States. Also, last time out, he hardly troubled McIlroy in meandering to T2nd with the equally languid Mickelson. If he has a poor 1st round, I might just back him EW to come from off the pace and get in the mix, but I can't have him outright.
Louis Oosthuizen - 25s and with a great chance to win the whole thing if he prevails, winning is quite a proposition for the debutant. Like Westwood, I struggle to trust Oosthuizen on Bermuda and, given all other factors, he is overlooked.
Robert Garrigus - 66s is too tight. Garrigus did well to get here and is a streaky type, but I think too many of the World's top players will get between him and a place this week.
Rickie Fowler - 75/1 is available for Rickie in this 30 man field. Sounds good on a purely price basis. However, 8 events coming in with only 1 top 30 (24th Barclays) makes him unbackable on debut.
John Huh - In three of the last 4 events, Hiuh has had a very strong Friday and Sunday, spoiled by a fairly abject Thursday and Saturday. Huh is dismissed at 100/1. May be worth a second look if his 1st round is useful.
Scott Piercy - 100/1 and last to scrape in at 30th in the FedEx cup race, Piercy has lost his game during the play-offs. the only bright spot was a good last round at the BMW last time out. I can't back him this week.
Dave (OneBet)
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