3pt Win Rory McIlroy at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Bo Van Pelt at 66/1 (General)
1pt EW Martin Laird at 125/1 (Vairous)
Previously advised
1.5pt EW Bubba Watson at 40/1 (Various)
1.5pt Ew Jason Dufner at 40/1 (Various)
Kiawah hole by hole guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/golf-tips-us-pga-championship-hole-by.html
The US PGA is the least vaunted of the 4 majors on the golfing calendar but, in my view at least, I think we have an intriguing proposition this week that will may live long in the memory. First, we have the cream of the game competing this week, with the World Ranking invites going beyond 100th place; everybody is here this week.
There are a number of subplots within the field also. Keegan Bradley defends this week and tuned up superbly by gunning down Jim Furyk last week to lift his first WGC title. However, as is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future, Tiger Woods is clearly at the head of the betting. Woods finished well last week to make the top 10. He was let down by nothing more than his putter last week and may have a huge say in the outcome as he continues to seek a comeback major. Rory McIlroy is finally awakening from his mini slump and seems capable of challenging again. World No.1 Luke Donald is also playing well and seems capable of raising his game most when his world no.1 status is threatened.
Perhaps more importantly than the fact that certain players arrive with headline chances is the fact that majors continue to be spread liberally around the world's finest - and not quite finest - golfers. 16 majors, 16 different winners. There is no sense that you can pin your hopes to any player right now with unabashed confidence
In my hole by hole guide (link here) of the course, I tried to give a feel for what players will expect at Kiawah Island this week. Heavy rain at time of writing and in the weeks leading up to the event mean that the longest course in Major Championship history just got longer. A long course does not necessarily equal a bombers course, however, as Jim Furyk showed as recently as the US Open when just failing to land the event at Olympic. However, with generous landing areas on many fairways, players who can hit the ball a long way from the tee have a potentially critical advantage this week. For me, the key attributes are as follows:
Total driving - Players really need to be at least quite long from the tee, but also pretty straight. On many holes, the cost of missing the fairway (particularly to the right) will be a heavy one. However, there is also an advantage on several risk/reward holes of choosing and hitting the longer of two driving areas.
Ability to shape the ball both ways, with a right to left game most desired - The hole by hole preview I posted reiterated the importance of shot shape, with many holes showing a clear advantage for players moving the ball right to left. I picked Bubba last night on Twitter because I had to advise him while the price was still value (Bubba has already come in to 35/1 since). The more I studied the course and hole by hole requirements, the more I could picture holes which would suit Bubba's eye.
A great scrambling game - Obviously players who consistently hit greens will need this part of their game less, but I fancy the winner this week will have got up and down from around the green better than many.
Fairways and greens - hit them both. Often
Solid putting - Players are likely to face several putts of 5-10 feet to make par, either because they have had to chip on to undulating greens, or because they have putted across greens up to 10,000sq feet. Players will have to consistently hole out to keep their score ticking over, especially if the wind gets up. Although the green speed is only expected to reach between 10 and 11 on the stimpmeter by the off, a solid putting stroke will be oft required, especially as the papsalum greens are not experienced often by the field.
Before explaining my choices, I want to highlight two consistent themes that apply to recent winners of this event: Previous winners tend to have already won earlier that year and arrive
in demonstrable form.
Let’s take a look at that point
2011: Winner Keegan Bradley, who also won the Byron Nelson
in May. 15th at Firestone the
week before.
2010: Winner Martin Kaymer, who won the Abu Dhabi Golf
Championship in January. 22nd
at Firestone the week before.
2009: Winner YE Yang, who also landed the Volvo Classic and
Honda Classic in 2009. 19th
at Firestone the week before.
2008: Winner Padraig Harrington, also 2008 Open Champion. 20th at Firestone the week
before.
2007/2006: Winner both years Tiger, who won 13 other events
in those 2 years. Winner by 8 at
Firestone in 07 and winner at the Buick 2 weeks before in 06 (WGC Bridgestone
was held after the PGA prior to 07 and the Buick was Woods’ last event before
the PGA)
2005: Winner Phil Mickelson, winner of 3 tournaments prior to
the PGA that year. 10th at
the International the week before.
2004: Winner Vijay Singh, four time tour winner that year
prior to the event. First at the Buick
two weeks before, Singh’s last event prior to the PGA.
2003: Winner Shaun Micheel, with no prior wins that year. 60th at the International.
2002: Winner Rich Beem, winner of The International 2 weeks
prior to the PGA, which was his last event prior to the PGA.
2001: Winner David Toms, Compaq Classic winner earlier that
year. 35th at the Buick the
week before.
Aside from Shaun Micheel, the last 11 years has seen a previous winner on the PGA or European tour that year prevail in this event. Also, aside from Micheel and to a lesser
extent David Toms in 2001, the winner has demonstrated they are in good shape
in the event immediately prior to the PGA.
If we take the logic above as a very strong barometer of our
likely winner this week, we can dissect and eliminate a number of players from
this week’s field. There are 18 players
in the field who finished in the top 30 in the last event and also have won on
one of the major tours this year. They
are as follows:
Player
|
Last
tournament
|
Last
3 event average
|
2012
winner?
|
Keegan Bradley
|
1
|
27
|
Yes
|
Steve Stricker
|
2
|
10
|
Yes
|
Louis Oosthuizen
|
4
|
16
|
Yes
|
Rory McIlroy
|
5
|
25
|
Yes
|
Justin Rose
|
5
|
37
|
Yes
|
Thorbjorn Olesen
|
5
|
17
|
Yes
|
Jason Dufner
|
7
|
14
|
Yes
|
Webb Simpson
|
7
|
12
|
Yes
|
Scott Stallings
|
7
|
52
|
Yes
|
Tiger Woods
|
8
|
32
|
Yes
|
Luke Donald
|
8
|
10
|
Yes
|
Matt Kuchar
|
8
|
17
|
Yes
|
Kyle Stanley
|
16
|
39
|
Yes
|
Dustin Johnson
|
19
|
20
|
Yes
|
Bubba Watson
|
19
|
15
|
Yes
|
Bill Haas
|
19
|
24
|
Yes
|
Scott Piercy
|
19
|
8
|
Yes
|
Rafael Cabrera Bello
|
29
|
52
|
Yes
|
I use statistics a lot in my analysis. And, although this is a little
one-dimensional, I would certainly be hesitant in having onside any players who
could not get near the head of the field at Bridgestone last week.
So, we want players who can find fairways and greens and hit it longer than average, as well as being able to scramble and putt solidly when required. We also ideally want recent winners, who arrive with their game in good shape. So to my choices.
Bubba Watson - A winner at Augusta this year of course and I have said much about Bubba already of course. With a first major and a first child, it is entirely expected that Bubba's form would have dipped a little. However, the signes are there that he is coming back. Bubba produced his best finish at the British Open and followed up with a very solid T19 at Firestone last week. However, the most compelling case I can make for Bubba is the course's requirements. Bubba has the right shot shape for this course and is plenty long enough. He will be more comfortable than most moving the ball away from the main danger, which is usually on the right off the tee. In addition, Bubba's continues to lead GIR stats on tour. His ability to do so from off the fairway will be key again this week where required. I fully expect Bubba to enjoy himself this week. If the wind gets high, I have my doubts, but I am not convinced he will be particularly blown away versus the rest of the field even if it does blow. I also like the fact that Bubba made the play-off at the Pete Dye designed Whistling Straits in 2010, which is perhaps the most closely aligned Dye design to this. I expect Bubba to give us a fun ride this week and he may just pick up a second major.
Jason Dufner - There is nobody I trust to go well this week more than Dufner. We just missed with him last week, but I see no reason to leave him out this at all. I watched with anguish as Dufner played his 3rd round in +2 to slip away from the leaders. He didn't play so badly but similar to Tiger in round 1, he did not score anywhere near as well as his tee to green game dictated he should have. I have highlighted a few times in recent weeks how well Dufner is striking the ball - 25th driving distance, 3rd in driving accuracy and 12th in greens hit last week does nothing to dampen that view. 12th in greens hit is his fisst time outside the top 10 in that category in 4 events, by the way. The final positive is Dufner and Pete Dye designs. 5th and 2nd in the last 2 years in the US PGA Championship have both been achieved on Pete Dye designs. A great scrambler which contributes to his place in the top 10 for bogey avoidance, I can find very few negatives for Dufner this week. Sure, he is not the best putter in the field, but this is not the week where the best putter is the pre-requisite for victory. Expect Dufner to be very close to the head of the field yet again. I tipped Dufner early at 40/1, which is a brilliant price. He is 30s already less than a day later. I still think you need him on side.
Rory McIlroy - Rory lost a play-off in this event along with Bubba in 2010. Finally, he is coming back to form. I am most encouraged by the amount of work Rory put in after the British Open. Whatever the reason (and most have an opinion) for his relative slump, there are signs he is coming back. This course is often generous from the tee, which is right how McIlroy likes it. When winning the US Open last year, McIlroy was able to unleash his driver and dial in his irons to stunning effect in going away from the field. It would not surprise me at all were he to do just that again this week. There may be some luck in avoiding the worst of the conditions this week, but McIlroy has been able to dominate a Masters field for 3 days, a British Open field for a day (arguably 3 days after a second round 80 did not deter him from finishing 3rd) and a US Open fielld for 4 days. He arguably should have won this event in 2010 also, but I think he could have a great chance this week, especially as the course gets damper and hence longer. I am going win only here. Rory is one of the few to truly believe can win, but also can not be trusted fully yet to fire. the last time I did this, I watched Bill Haas hole a monster in a play-off and deny Phil. Still, win only feels the right play to me.
I am struggling with my final selection. The whole world seems to be on Dustin Johnson and I entirely understand the rationalé for him this week. However, I do not think he was favourite over Bubba and Dufner at all and the continued adoration for him as he moves in to clear 4th favouritism frankly baffles me. He can win, but like Scott last week, he is terribly priced to do so. Justin Rose is a bit of a photo-fit for this event in many ways and can make a strong challenge this week. However, I feel the lengthening of the course may just take this almost literally out of reach for him.
I like Piercy, but the value has been long since taken on him. Similarly, Garrigus is now too tight to back. Bill Haas is sneaking back in to some form and holds some appeal, as does Schwartzel. I actually like Els, not just because he has a 4th major story of the year where he to challenge (the Masters story was the will they invite or won't they saga that preceded the event - they didn't). the likes of Goosen and Leishman can also tough it out if the going gets a little tougher. Leishman ticks the box for having won this year also. Bo Van Pelt again tempts me and 66/1 is good enough here. I picked him last week and he did nothing to discourage. He is in the top 20 for my recent driving distance and driving accuracy stats and 9th in my recent GIR rankings. Make sure you take the 6 places, as Bo is great at finding that 6th-10th range. I expect he will go well again.
I am also going to play one more guy. Martin Laird has had a fairly quiet time of things this year, but is starting to play better again. I think the fact the course is lengthening works in Laird's favour, as does the fact that there are a number of holes with generous landing areas. Laird is a massive price at 125/1 on a course where I believe only a few will be able to prevail if it plays really long. Laird is one of those guys
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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