Golf tips - Deutsche Bank Championship Outright selections

Outright selections 
2pts EW Luke Donald at 18/1 (victor Chandler)
1.5pts EW Jason Dufner at 20/1 (Various)
1pt EW Geoff Ogilvy at 50/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jason Day at 50/1 (Various)

Hi all

This started as my tournament form guide and has morphed in to my formal preview for the event after it grew out of all proportion.  The claims of the leading protagonists on a course form basis are compelling enough for me to go with it.  I have done my usual system work and no big outsiders are showing up strongly enough this week.  So, here it is.  Enjoy (make a nice hot drink and get comfortable before starting)

The usual course/tournament form analysis below.

My course analysis goes back to 2003 and I analyse in the following way:

• Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
• Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.  
• Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.  
• Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use.  In reality, this is not a factor here as TPC Boston has been the host since this event first played in 2003.  Although the tournament has only been in its current guise since 2007, TPC Boston's permanent position as tournament host makes it worthwhile going back to 2003 for indicators.

As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year. 

So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:

First, a general comment.  This event is stacked with players who have thrived over the years on this course. TPC Boston seems to reward classy players, who can get it done around the greens.  No surprise then to see the likes of Stricker, Snedeker, Ogilvy and Donald near the top given this.

So to the individual players.  Steve Stricker is ranked 1 here, due to an excellent overall record.  Before a surprisingly average 42nd last year, Stricker had finished 9th, 1st, 13th 9th and 7th in the 5 years prior; 4 of those five years (2007-2010) were results gained in the current play-offs format too, of course.  Stricker arrives here in good form too.  I spent some time talking about his chances last week, before a 54th placed finish somewhat ended the momentum.  I am not overly concerned by that finish.  It was a tough course and a number of great putters had a hard time on the greens over the weekend in particular.  Stricker was 4th in approaches from under 100 yards, 15th in proximity to the hole and 12th in approaches from over 200 yards.  Clearly, he is still striking the ball very nicely.  It was actually in his around the green game that he struggled.  That should not remain for long and the man with a great record around here should go well again.  Motivation should not be a factor either.  Stricker sits 10th in the Ryder cup standings and will want to try and make a definite statement to DLIII ahead of his wildcard picks being made.  A 2nd indifferent week will be very bad timing for Stricker, although he must have a great chance of inclusion even if this does happen.  I just can leave him out again this week.  Again, I am a little nervous, but I want to see more than 28/1 for a player I do not think has great win claims right now.

Perhaps (definitely) surprisingly, Charley Hoffman ranks 2nd.  His win in 2010 is an obvious reason he ranks well, but Hoffman has been in the top 33 in each of the last 4 years showing he can play the course well.  I do not think that he merits the 2nd ranking here, especially when you consider the merits of some of the guys below.  My system ranks are based upon set criteria, which sometimes throws out oddities such as this.  Before I go on though, let's look to what extent I think Hoffman might shock the field and challenge again this year.  I don't.  4 MCs coming in to this event is hardly a ringing endorsement of his chances.  In finishing 31st when defending last year, Hoffman had placed 10th at the Barclays and 37th and 25th in two of the previous 4 events. In winning in 2010, Hoffman's previous 8 events read 25-27-41-7-4-83-10-27.  He is not anywhere near that form and I do not see a challenge here.  Hoffman has really been struggling with the flatstick, ranking 94th or worse in his last 4 events for putts per round.  This tournament demands that you putt well and, despite some decent tee to green stats for accuracy (Barclays aside) recently, I feel he has far too much to find.

OK, back to the big boys.  1st and 2nd in the first two years of this event (2003 and 2004, in the old format) and 5th and 8th last two years, Adam Scott has a great chance of going well again here.  I have a slight mental block in trusting Adam Scott, but I am becoming less ardent about it.  In 13 events this year, Scott has 8 top 15 finishes, but only 2 top 5s.  One of those should have been a British Open win of course and his form has been only OK since.  My problem with Scott is that he is always liable to have a mental snooze for a day or two in an event and that is often costly in a top class field.  Obviously, Scott was outstanding for 68 holes at Lytham, but in every event this year he has posted a score that has been the 44th or worse best round in the field on one of the 4 days.  It is tough to win when you do that.  There in a nutshell is my issue.  In 2010, Scott meandered on days 1 and 2, but then produced a great weekend to place.  Last year, Scott started well and then really fell away in finishing 8th.  There is no doubt he can, but there is plenty of evidence that he will not.  Scott is contracting in the market and I have to leave him at prices of around 25s this week.

Geoff Ogilvy is very interesting.  He is generally 50s, but that will probably not last as people realise his record here.  Since this event gained an increased importance in 2007 and became a play-off event Ogilvy has finished (2007 first) 6-72-7-2-25.  That is compelling form.  Ogilvy is simmering in current form too and threatening to start performing again right at the head of tournaments.  Ogilvy has 10 top 30s in 13 events, but nothing better than 9th.  If you see a top 20 market and have nothing to do with the wheelbarrow of cash sat outside your house, you could do worse.  Slightly more practically, the Spreadex finishing position market certainly is worthy of consideration when available.  I think the reason Ogilvy is not quite there results wise is because his putting is not where he would like it at the moment.  38th in strokes gained putting last week was decent, however, as was 20th in birdie or better.  Ogilvy could just score big this week.  I think 50s is value.

Jason Day frustrated me last week.  We backed him at 80/1 and he showed me that I wasn't crazy to do so.  After meandering at +2, Day rallied to finish -1 after day 1 and improved to -2 at halfway, only 5 from the lead.  His tournament ended on day 3 with something of a horror round,but he rallied to produce the best round of the day on Sunday.  The omens remain good, but can we play Day again here now he is 50s?  Day has played here 4 times, finishing 50th, 19th, 2nd and 3rd.  Clearly he has a strong affinity with the course.  We are again on Bentgrass this week, which is a tick in the box for Day too.  Day has not had as good a year this year, but it is a sign of how good a player he is that he has 4 top 10s to date in 2012.  Where I believe Day will feel confident this week is that he can get away with less than stellar driving accuracy a lot more this week than he did last.  Last week, 95th in driving accuracy played a big part in 97th GIR.  However, Day was 15th in greens hit at the Deutsche last year despite only sitting 82nd in DA.  What did seem to be in order last week was Day's putting, so if he can "get away" with a couple of less than perfect drives, he may well feature here. Day was 9th in birdie or better last week and 3rd in approaches over 100 yards.  So, he is striking his irons well and rolling the putts nicely too.  OK, the Aussie charge continues.  He makes my team.

Tiger Woods in 7 appearances has a 1st, two 2nds, 7th and 11th twice.  But, Tiger is a tough player to get right at the moment.  There is much talk of his weekend deceleration and last week is the latest in a lengthening line of such examples.  My main problem with Woods is linked to that.  Since his full field comeback win at the Arnold Palmer in March, Woods has had 6 bad weekends.  The tournaments?  The Masters, The Players, The US Open, The British Open, The PGA and the Barclays.  Apart from WGC Bridgestone, where Woods came from deep to make the top 10, he has failed in the 6 biggest events he has played in since April over the weekend.  I have two other issues also.  First, Tiger's stats were just OK last week.  Unlike Jason Day, there is no feeling that he just needs a tweak or a more benevolent course.  Woods struggled with the putter, was average off the tee, was average scrambling and just did not give any confidence that he can win this week.  He seems to be striking his irons pretty well, but still not overly compelling.  Finally, I am not sure how his health is, given the tweaked back and pain experienced last week.  Had this not been a key play-offs event, I think he may have pulled out by now.  He may yet still.  I have to swerve Woods this week, but he can win if his ball is more readily in play as it should be.

Thoughts now on the rest of the top 10 ranked players.  Phil is next, but, if you didn't believe last week at Bethpage Black, there is probably not enough reason to believe here, despite the 2007 win and 10th last year.  Phil's odds have held too, because last week was by no means awful.  I can't have him this week, although the two good rounds from 4 he did shoot last week suggests a game that may be coming around.

Brandt Snedeker has been 3rd and 5th last 2 years and is in very good form.  After four average events coming in, Snedeker went 3rd at the Barclays and 3rd here last year.  Well only 3 average events coming in this year, with 2nd at the Barclays is a nice omen ahead of this event.  4th in strokes gained putting last week and 20th in birdie or better, Snedeker really has a good chance to feature here.  The question is whether I can have him at 28/1.  I think I am just going to leave him.

Jason Dufner has had a week off, the week after I had a week off backing him in a tournament.  OK, I have not been quite that ardent about it, but I always think hard about whether to have Dufner in my team.  Dufner is this year's Webb Simpson for me in many ways, having delivered big from relative obscurity prior.  Dufner was 2nd in 2009 here and followed up with 18th and 31st last 2 years also.  After giving some guys a headstart in the FedEx cup race last week, Dufner has some catching up to do.  The venue at which Webb did it last year has some nice symmetry for me given the similarities in the seasons of both.  Last year, Dufner was 20th in putts per round here having been 88th and 95th in the two events prior.  So, 47th in putts last time out worries me less than 9th and 4th before that encourages me.  The difference is his ballstriking, which has moved from good to sensational in 2012.  I think he has a glorious chance this week as long as he kept his eye on the practice side of things in the week off.  Dufner's Zurich classic maiden win came after a week off, so I am sure he can keep the momentum rolling here.

Vijay is playing pretty well and has a great past record here.  However, I can't trust his weekends any more. At 80s and generally 70s and lower, he has to be overlooked.  1st in 04 and 08 and 2nd in 06 tells you of his past prowess.  Good luck if you are on him.

Finally, Luke Donald.  Luke has been 2nd and 3rd last two years.  And, on a course that tends to favour those with a stellar short game, it is no surprise at all to see.  With par 5s that Donald can look at in 2 blows and an impeccable wedge game when he can't, Donald is very likely to keep the scoreboard ticking over.  After last year's double money list win, it has been fairly quiet this year for him and he has been vocal about his own failure in majors.  3 top 10 finishes in 5 events and nothing worse than 32nd in that time tells you his game is in shape.  I suspect he will be keen to again try and silence the doubters with a strong play-offs.  He played well last week and should challenge again this.  A note of caution: Donald's 3rd rounds have been poor this year on the whole.  If he gets his Saturday right, he will be very close in this event I feel.  A note of optimism: Since the Deutsche in 2010, Luke Donald has had 29 further top 10s in strokeplay events.  If he fails to get a top 10 this week, it will be the first time he has started a top 10 streak and failed to follow it up with another since then (aside from the season ending European Tour event in Abu Dhabi).  That is my killer stat for the week - Luke Donald is in my team too.

I started off trying to do my usual tournament form preview, but I feel I have written enough and picked enough golfers to consider my selections complete.  Good luck to you all this week

Regards

Dave