Outright Selections
2pts EW Hunter Mahan at 14/1 (Various)
1pt EW Charley Hoffman at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Jerry Kelly at 80/1 (Various)
1pt EW Greg Owen at 125/1 (Various)
My bets were advised earlier today on twitter; I preferred to give you the tips in good time, rather than wait for the chance to write a preview. There is a follow link at the top of the page if you wish to catch the ramblings of me or my partner (@onebetUK)
OK. To this week's event. I will keep it brief, because by now, a lot of the insights that we all use for betting will have been shared already by others pundits.
For any of you yet to have a bet and just thinking of doing a quick check on players who have done well at this event in the last year or two, it is worth noting the venue here has not been used for the Canadian Open since 2006 (and 2003 before that). Then 44 year old Bob Tway prevailed in a play-off over Brad Faxon here in 2003, with 36 year old Jim Furyk winning next time round at Hamilton in 2006. Seems that experience can prevail here. Those looking at last year's winner Sean O'Hair, will also have taken encouragement in his 3rd place finish here in 2006.
Hamilton GC is a thinking man's course. Grip it and rip it does not apply here. Fairways are tight and the penalty for missing the fairway plenty severe enough for longest to be unlikely to equal best. This course is very much all about finding fairways and greens time and again. The greens are quite small here, so some importance must be placed upon scrambling too, as particularly errant players will have to be able to get up and down most of the time to keep their score ticking over. I have paid some attention to those players bent poa annua positive on the greens, but this is a lesser statistic for me this week. Give me a guy in control of his golf ball and we will not be far wrong.
Furyk won here with -14 and Tway 3 years earlier with -21. So, we want solid players who can score. the credentials of Furyk are obvious this time around, but I question whether he will dial in enough on all 4 days to post the score required. However, I am more than willing to accept I may be wrong on that one. Furyk ranks 4 in my ranks and would probably have made the team where he 8th favourite and not 4th. We can all dream sometimes.
So, to the selections.
Hunter Mahan leaps out at me this week and is the clear number one in my system ranks. The headline reason this is that Mahan has been stunning of late from tee to green. In my Lyoness Open preview (link here), observes will have noted I have also placed Mahan in a double with Chris Wood, who is placed OK at -1 after round 1 in Austria. Hunter Mahan has the following driving accuracy states in the last 4 events : 6th (British Open), 3rd, 2nd, 27th (US Open). The two strong positives in the majors are relevant here. If you can drive well at Lytham and Olympic, Hamilton will look like a nice place to relax from the tee. Well, not quite, but you get my point.
Hunter's form is not great here with a 40-odd and 60-odd last two times, but he does have some form in Canada, ranking 14th in my event ranks (4th 2004, 5th 2007, 17th 2010 the highlights). Mahan also knows how to putt on Bentgrass, winning at Bridgestone and the Shell Open in recent years, with other strong finishes along the way on bent surfaces. I also like the way his results are shaping up. Mahan usually hints at solid form before blasting in to contention and either winning or going close. Before Winning the Shell Houston earlier this year, Mahan finished 15/24/24/42. Good solid paychecks before all clicked. From the PGA last year, Mahan went 19/43/8/42 before then going 2/4. Before winning the WGC, Mahan went 37/17. He is one of those players who lulls you in to a false sense of security before landing big. I feel we have a real chance with Hunter this week.
2nd in my system ranks is Bo Van Pelt. He would almost definitely have been on my team had the 30s still been available. I don't like the number of times he has finished just outside the places, however, and with the price coming in to 25s, I have to leave him here. Suffice to say, if he wins, I will be lamenting on twitter and maybe quoting this very sentence.
Charley Hoffman is next and this pick would not have come naturally at all. However, that is why I have a system and on closer inspection, he was certainly worth a play this week at pretty big odds. Hoffman is finally starting to play again, after a relatively lean spell post his eye-catching Deutsche Bank win of 2010. Hoffman missed out somewhat last time at Greenbrier, decelerating to 67th after a fast start (9th after day 1). However, in 3 of the 4 prior tournaments he had been 13th, 2nd and 22nd. Good omens then for my 5th ranked system player. Hoffman has also done well in this event on his 2 previous visits, finishing 28th in 2008 and 4th in 2010. The next comment is too much of a generalisation, but does hold some truth: Canadian Opens are typically played on shortish, tight tracks. So, Hoffman's Canadian Open form should be seen as a positive trend, despite the fact it is a new course this year for Hoffman. Hoffman is hitting greens, ranking 2nd, 12th, 20th and 23rd in 4 of his last 5 events. There are few in the field who can match that sort of form (although 3 of them are also selected in my picks above). I also like the fact that Hoffman can score well enough when in form to go away from most players in the field. He shot -22 to win the Deutsche Bank and recently in finishing 2nd at the Travelers, shot -13. That sort of fits the brief this week and I am happy to roll the dice here.
Talking of dice rolling, let's talk about my 2 triple figure picks. Jerry Kelly is an experienced guy, which dovetails nicely with the profile of previous winners Furyk and Tway. Kelly does not get it done so often these days, although the Canadian Open last year was the springboard for a fine run of 7 top 26 finishes in the last 8 events of the season. Kelly has started his run of form a little earlier this year, entering this week on a run of 37th/12th/36th/13th. None of those events screamed for accuracy quite like this one and on a short tight track, we find the most likely route for Kelly to feature. 11th, 2nd, 20th and 2nd for driving accuracy in the last 4 events and 80th, 5th, 7th and 22nd for greens hit tells you this man is in by far his best ball striking form of the season. 20th for total putts last week at Annandale does not put me off at all either. My final encouragement for Kelly is that he sits 11th in my event form ranks, having been 5th in 2009 and 2005. He doesn't land often, but I am happy to side with Kelly here.
I have talked about Greg Owen in recent player form guides, as he is having a very consistent season. My reservation usually is about whether he can go on and compete for the win, rather than finish "nicely". the Greenbrier rather spoiled the run, but Owen finished 9th, 11th and 17th prior to that. Despite the MC and then a solid 54th at the Open, Owen's stats continue to show prowess where it matters. Accuracy. 22nd for accuracy at the British and 47th for GIR was OK. However, prior to the Greenbriers (where he was still 23rd in greens for the holes he did play), Owen finished in the top 7 for greens hit in 3 straight events. I want him on my team here at a whopping 125/1. I think the place potential is much better than the 30+/1 odds suggest and I am really happy to have him on board. Downsides are no Canadian Opens since 2007 and a so-so 60th here in 2006. However, I think he is in a very good place right now and if he can recapture the groove he has had recently with his irons, he could be in for a big week
So much for the short preview...................
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Wednesday, 25 July 2012
Tuesday, 24 July 2012
Golf Tips Lyoness Open Outright selections
Outright selections
1.5pts EW Chris Wood at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Anthony Wall at 35/1 (Various)
1pt EW Ignacio Garrido at 55/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts EW Steven O'Hara at 175/1 (SkyBet, 150/1 various)
0.5pts EW Adam Gee at 300/1 (Various)
0.3pts EW Chris Wood/Hunter Mahan double at 389/1 (BlueSq, 344/1 various)
A brief synopsis of my selections for this event, which starts on Wednesday.
Diamond Country Club has hosted the last two Austrian Opens prior to this year and is again used in 2012, albeit under the new and distinctly unappealing banner of the Lyoness Open. Looking at past trends for the last two years, we see the importance clearly of finding greens and fairways. Good putters will thrive here on relatively good greens, but the trick to this course is about consistently finding the short stuff.
This year, with damp conditions and the threat of some adverse weather during the week, this near 7,400 yard course may play tough for some of the tour's shorter hitters. Therefore, I believe the brief is slightly different to usual desired attributes. I want players who trend well in total driving (distance and accuracy) and control their irons consistently.
My final point is a lesser one over 4 days, but certainly can be a factor early on day 1. If looking to trade on Betfair or looking at 1st round leader bets, it may pay to select players who start early on Wednesday from the 10th tee. Players starting on 10, play the following hole ranks in their first 6 holes: 17, 8, 15, 16, 6, 11. It gets tougher after that and the 5 hole stretch from 16 through 2 is the toughest on the course, but I would rather have a player onside who has got their rhythm and a decent start before facing this challenge. I have backed Gee, O'Hara and Wood on Betfair personally with a view to trading before the 16th hole (thier 7th). All 3 start early, all 3 start on the 10th and all 3 have chances in my view here, as my preview below will detail.
So, given it is Tuesday night and I am neglecting my PGA obligations to date, I am going to move straight to my selections.
Chris Wood finally breaks his duck this week, or so my system says. In this quality of field, Wood's solid recent tour-wide stats of around 40th for driving distance, accuracy and GIR is both solid and also better than the great majority of this field. With a fair wind, Wood would have two titles to his name already this season, having produced a stunning final round in Sicily, which was a shot shy of Olesen's debut winning total. In the BMW international Open, Wood narrowly missed the play-off having looked the winner at various stages of the final round. The number of recent first time winners (Olesen, Donaldson, Weisberger, Willett) should give Wood confidence that he can be next. He may not get a better chance than this. I have also added a small double with Wood and Mahan. I really do think that Wood should go well here. He starts on the easier holes and that should hopefully give him the springboard to get involved and stay involved. As I will summarise with my Canadian Open preview, I am equally bullish about the chances for Hunter Mahan so am happy to play a small double.
Anthony Wall has started to threaten leaderboards again after a pretty lean spell in the last couple of years. In the last 10 events, wall has been in the top 6 3 times, the highlight of which was a recent T2nd behind Jamie Donaldson in the Irish Open. I love tournaments where my top system picks are not at the head of the betting and Wall is 2nd in my ranks this week. While Olesen and Weisberger have ability in abundance, they are far from reliable market leaders. Wall does not hit the ball as far as the biggest hitters, but he is not quite short either. However, Wall makes the team due to his ball striking prowess. A repeat of his -14 at the Irish Open will see him go very close this week.
Ignacio Garrido is a big box ticker for this event in terms of the photo-fit player we want here. The concern as usual is whether Garrido has the fitness to contend over 4 days. I am very happy to take the chance at 55/1. Garrido's finishes are not exactly stellar this year, although 4 finishes between 9th and 11th (including last time out, 11th at the Scottish Open) shows that he can still perform very solidly on tour. It is 9 years now since Garrido last prevailed, but I really believe he can contend this week. 11th last time out as mentioned, Garrido enters this week in good form. Garrido has good season long stats for greens hit and driving accuracy and he ranks the best in my recent form ranks for these two metrics. Expect Garrido to play very solidly this week, with one big round potentially pushing him right in to contention.
Some longer shots to finish. Steve O'Hara missed the cut here last year, which initially is a negative of course. However, O'Hara's ball striking in recent weeks is his best of the season and he can go close if he repeats that form here. In my recent form ranks on tour, O'Hara ranks 37th for driving distance, 33rd for accuracy and 16th for greens in regulation. 175/1 is massive and I a more than happy to chance that O'Hara can trouble the places this week.
Adam Gee is way out of left field, but I am basically playing that this 300/1 shot can dial in with his irons and contend. Gee's season long stats are impressive for driving distance and GIR, with a none too bad driving accuracy stat either. Often let down by his putting, I am playing here that Gee finds his share of greens, but also is aided by both a true putting challenge on fine greens but also a slower challenge, with the moisture slowing the surface and helping to reduce the edge of the great putters.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
1.5pts EW Chris Wood at 25/1 (Various)
1pt EW Anthony Wall at 35/1 (Various)
1pt EW Ignacio Garrido at 55/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts EW Steven O'Hara at 175/1 (SkyBet, 150/1 various)
0.5pts EW Adam Gee at 300/1 (Various)
0.3pts EW Chris Wood/Hunter Mahan double at 389/1 (BlueSq, 344/1 various)
A brief synopsis of my selections for this event, which starts on Wednesday.
Diamond Country Club has hosted the last two Austrian Opens prior to this year and is again used in 2012, albeit under the new and distinctly unappealing banner of the Lyoness Open. Looking at past trends for the last two years, we see the importance clearly of finding greens and fairways. Good putters will thrive here on relatively good greens, but the trick to this course is about consistently finding the short stuff.
This year, with damp conditions and the threat of some adverse weather during the week, this near 7,400 yard course may play tough for some of the tour's shorter hitters. Therefore, I believe the brief is slightly different to usual desired attributes. I want players who trend well in total driving (distance and accuracy) and control their irons consistently.
My final point is a lesser one over 4 days, but certainly can be a factor early on day 1. If looking to trade on Betfair or looking at 1st round leader bets, it may pay to select players who start early on Wednesday from the 10th tee. Players starting on 10, play the following hole ranks in their first 6 holes: 17, 8, 15, 16, 6, 11. It gets tougher after that and the 5 hole stretch from 16 through 2 is the toughest on the course, but I would rather have a player onside who has got their rhythm and a decent start before facing this challenge. I have backed Gee, O'Hara and Wood on Betfair personally with a view to trading before the 16th hole (thier 7th). All 3 start early, all 3 start on the 10th and all 3 have chances in my view here, as my preview below will detail.
So, given it is Tuesday night and I am neglecting my PGA obligations to date, I am going to move straight to my selections.
Chris Wood finally breaks his duck this week, or so my system says. In this quality of field, Wood's solid recent tour-wide stats of around 40th for driving distance, accuracy and GIR is both solid and also better than the great majority of this field. With a fair wind, Wood would have two titles to his name already this season, having produced a stunning final round in Sicily, which was a shot shy of Olesen's debut winning total. In the BMW international Open, Wood narrowly missed the play-off having looked the winner at various stages of the final round. The number of recent first time winners (Olesen, Donaldson, Weisberger, Willett) should give Wood confidence that he can be next. He may not get a better chance than this. I have also added a small double with Wood and Mahan. I really do think that Wood should go well here. He starts on the easier holes and that should hopefully give him the springboard to get involved and stay involved. As I will summarise with my Canadian Open preview, I am equally bullish about the chances for Hunter Mahan so am happy to play a small double.
Anthony Wall has started to threaten leaderboards again after a pretty lean spell in the last couple of years. In the last 10 events, wall has been in the top 6 3 times, the highlight of which was a recent T2nd behind Jamie Donaldson in the Irish Open. I love tournaments where my top system picks are not at the head of the betting and Wall is 2nd in my ranks this week. While Olesen and Weisberger have ability in abundance, they are far from reliable market leaders. Wall does not hit the ball as far as the biggest hitters, but he is not quite short either. However, Wall makes the team due to his ball striking prowess. A repeat of his -14 at the Irish Open will see him go very close this week.
Ignacio Garrido is a big box ticker for this event in terms of the photo-fit player we want here. The concern as usual is whether Garrido has the fitness to contend over 4 days. I am very happy to take the chance at 55/1. Garrido's finishes are not exactly stellar this year, although 4 finishes between 9th and 11th (including last time out, 11th at the Scottish Open) shows that he can still perform very solidly on tour. It is 9 years now since Garrido last prevailed, but I really believe he can contend this week. 11th last time out as mentioned, Garrido enters this week in good form. Garrido has good season long stats for greens hit and driving accuracy and he ranks the best in my recent form ranks for these two metrics. Expect Garrido to play very solidly this week, with one big round potentially pushing him right in to contention.
Some longer shots to finish. Steve O'Hara missed the cut here last year, which initially is a negative of course. However, O'Hara's ball striking in recent weeks is his best of the season and he can go close if he repeats that form here. In my recent form ranks on tour, O'Hara ranks 37th for driving distance, 33rd for accuracy and 16th for greens in regulation. 175/1 is massive and I a more than happy to chance that O'Hara can trouble the places this week.
Adam Gee is way out of left field, but I am basically playing that this 300/1 shot can dial in with his irons and contend. Gee's season long stats are impressive for driving distance and GIR, with a none too bad driving accuracy stat either. Often let down by his putting, I am playing here that Gee finds his share of greens, but also is aided by both a true putting challenge on fine greens but also a slower challenge, with the moisture slowing the surface and helping to reduce the edge of the great putters.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Saturday, 21 July 2012
OneBet Racing Selections 21st July
21st July
Cartmel
14.25 Foundry Square 5/2 - 2pt Win WON +4.5PTS
15.00 Kilvergan Boy 3/1 - 2pw Win -2PTS
15.35 Colditz 4/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.10 Postmaster 7/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
16.50 Silverlord 8/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
17.25 Lieutenant Miller 8/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS, Royal Riviera 12/1 1pt ew NR
17.55 Desolait 3/1 -2pt Win WON +6PTS
Meeting Total: +0.5PTS
Market Rasen
13.45 Ctappers 3/1 - 2pt Win WON +6PTS
14.15 DJ Milan 10/1 - 1p ew -2PTS
14.50 Absinthe 5/1 - 2pt Win =2PTS
15.25 Alco 5/1 - 2pt Win, OneBet Longshot - Stonethrower 33/1 - 1pt ew -4PTS
16.00 Compton Blue 9/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
16.40 Ballbough Gorta 6/4 - 3pt Win -3PTS
17.15 Well Green 9/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
Meeting Total: -9PTS
Daily Total: -8.5PTS
Cartmel
14.25 Foundry Square 5/2 - 2pt Win WON +4.5PTS
15.00 Kilvergan Boy 3/1 - 2pw Win -2PTS
15.35 Colditz 4/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS
16.10 Postmaster 7/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
16.50 Silverlord 8/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
17.25 Lieutenant Miller 8/1 - 2pt Win -2PTS, Royal Riviera 12/1 1pt ew NR
17.55 Desolait 3/1 -2pt Win WON +6PTS
Meeting Total: +0.5PTS
Market Rasen
13.45 Ctappers 3/1 - 2pt Win WON +6PTS
14.15 DJ Milan 10/1 - 1p ew -2PTS
14.50 Absinthe 5/1 - 2pt Win =2PTS
15.25 Alco 5/1 - 2pt Win, OneBet Longshot - Stonethrower 33/1 - 1pt ew -4PTS
16.00 Compton Blue 9/1 - 1pt ew -2PTS
16.40 Ballbough Gorta 6/4 - 3pt Win -3PTS
17.15 Well Green 9/2 - 2pt Win -2PTS
Meeting Total: -9PTS
Daily Total: -8.5PTS
Golf tips - British Open Midway Considerations
Midpoint selection
1pt EW Peter Hanson at 150/1 (Various)
On a personal note, I selected players ready to see a true test of links golf, convinced I had the right calibre of player onside to cope better than most. What we have seen is a mild and almost limp event, which has allowed players to dial in and play target golf.............or so the theory goes.
Snedeker and Scott show how easy the course is playing to date, with Snedeker hitting well over 80% of greens despite less than stellar accuracy off the tee. It is a real surprise to me then that only 26 other players have managed to break par. There have been comments about players struggling to readjust to the benign conditions having practiced low punch shots, chip and run shots and worked generally on coping with adversity in the build up. This is a factor of course, but I am surprised at the level of frankly poor play to date. Players seem to be struggling to reset and attack the golf course. Snedeker and Scott clearly have taken the course for what it is to date and that stands them on good stead today, as more of the same weather wise is expected. The question is whether either of the leaders can fare well today and hold on when the weather is expected to really pick up tomorrow. Let's see if we can find any indicators.
The first chart below shows the position of the eventual winner after 36 holes since 2001.
Aside from 2001, all winners have been inside the top 15 at halfway. Indeed, in all years bar 2001 and 2007, all winners have been inside the top 10 at this stage. In 5 of the 11 years, the halfway leader or co-leader has gone on to win the event. 2001 takes on a little added significance here of course, as this was the last British Open at Lytham. Duval sat at level par 142 (It was a par 71 in 2001) and 7 shots back of Monty's lead, before romping through the field with -10 over the weekend, eventually winning easily by 3 shots. clearly, it can be done, but it takes a special effort. In the previous Lytham Open in 1996, Tom Lehman led at the end of each round and went on to win despite a closing 73.
The logic for a hero charge from deep would appear to be along these lines - If the top two stall today and the lead is somewhere between -8 and -10 at the close of play, any player who can take advantage of mild conditions today and shoot -5 to -7 will surge up the leaderboard. We are on Goosen who is Even par and T28th. So, let's surmise with him - always nice to dream. If Goosen were to shoot 64 today and sit at -6, he would be in the hunt. Tomorrow in expected tough conditions, a round of level par may yet see him challenge for the title. Sounds easy huh? In reality, I would be surprised to see the lead remain at -10 and so the main chance appears to be for those in a little closer order having a good day and threatening -10 by the close. Els is 7 off and has to be considered unlikely from there (especially with the way he is putting). For me, it is a likely 9 horse race for those -4 and better - the top 9 is full of top notch players, all of whom can fit my brief for what is required to come through and win.............and Thomas Aiken. I might regret that dismissal come Sunday, but, talented though he is, I will be surprised if he gets near winning this event.
The next chart shows where players have been at half way before going on to place.
The first thing that strikes me as interesting is the midway position of the entire top 5 in 2001 (including ties). 2001 is the only year in which no player placing was even in the top 5 at the halfway stage. Midway positions are as follows in 2001: 35th, 6th, 17th, 35th, 9th, 17th, 26th, 17th, 26th. Repeated numbers indicate tied positions. So, only 2 players placing were in the top 10, with the other 6th 17th or worse at this stage. So, it can be done.
In 2002 and 2003, players were able to come from the cut line to place. In fact, each year there is a decent story for players coming from deep to place. Headlines as follows:
2001: 35th halfway to 1st (Duval)
2002: 68th to 2nd (Elkington)
2003: 11th to 2nd (Vijay Singh. Brian Davis went from 57th to 6th)
2004: 37th to 4th (Westwood)
2005: 70th to 5th (Ogilvy)
2006: (22nd to 5th (Tanihara)
2007: 42nd to 4th (Richard Green)
2008: 52nd to 3rd (Stenson)
2009: 53rd to 5th (Donald)
2010: 38th to 3rd (McIlroy)
2011 : 19th to 5th (Fowler/Kim)
So, if you can find a player at huge odds who finds his groove and gets tough tomorrow, there is genuine hope that a player can place.
Given the two charts above, I would suggest it is easier to win big by backing a player at huge odds who goes on to place than it is to back a longshot to come and win. Anybody who selects a player to win from below Ernie in 10th is at best brave. Recall that Duval won from 35th, but the gap was "only" seven at that stage. The flip side to this is that Duval was 7 back after round 2, but actually led the field after round 3.
Now let's analyse our leaderboard. The chart below shows how our players have fared in the last two years when in the top 20 at halfway. Note that my stats are taken from the PGA and European tour only, so I don't have anything here for the likes of Steven Alker, who sits T11th.
How it works:
Those columns marked "current position" show the event leaderboard as it stands. "Halfway position 2011/2012" shows how many top 20s a player has had and their average position within the top 20. The performance columns show how a player has performed from halfway to the end, with the rank on the right showing who has performed best.
Luke Donald ranks first above. In 18 top 20 halfway positions, his average improvement has gone from 9.2 to 5.8 by the end. That is a very strong improvement, but I just do not fancy he hangs on when it gets wild tomorrow.
Peter Hanson is interesting. In a not dissimilar position in the Masters, we tipped him at 80/1 and he duly went on to storm through the field and lead after round 3, eventually finishing 3rd. Hanson, when in the top 15 in 2011 and 2012 at halfway, produced the following finishes: 15th, 6th, 10th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 3rd. 6 top 4s in 9 events where he has been top 15 is strong. If you look at the trend, the top 4 finishes are the last 6 numbers. Hanson is 150/1 and given he can play tough conditions too, I am going to get him onside at what I consider to be a huge 150/1 with 4 places available in the place market. 37.5/1 that Hanson makes up 3 shots on the field and places is massive value given that he keeps doing exactly that over the weekend.
So what of the leaders? It is interesting that none of those currently in the top 5 bar Paul Lawrie rank inside the top 10 here. This includes Tiger, partly because he has been top 3 in 4 majors since his break from the game, none of which have produced anything better than a 4th place finish. There is a clear suggestion that some of these guys will fall away, which adds a little more weight to the theory that a guy like Peter Hanson can score.
Since 2010, Snedeker has performed as follows when top 10 at halfway (halfway position followed by finishing position in brackets) : 6(43), 1(8), 1(5), 1(4), 9(1), 7(15), 3(11), 8(33), 4(3), 7(22), 10(16), 8(8), 2(1), 7(17)
Snedeker goes backwards very much more often than not. 3 times he had led at this stage, with nothing better than 4th by the end.
And the same for Adam Scott: 7(9), 7(9), 6(11), 8(6), 8(23), 10(3), 1(1), 9(67), 1(8), 1(6), 9(4), 4(4), 3(13), 5(15)
So, Scott is much more solid than Sendeker, but still hardly compelling. When the wind blows, Scott had best hope he has a few shots on the field I fancy.
I am going to stick with a single selection here, but there is genuine encouragement for those chasing when looking at the head of the field. I haven't talked about Tiger and will not really say much. I have to leave him at 3/1. I simply do not have faith that he copes well tomorrow for reasons of pressure and scrutiny and the ability of him either utilise driver well if winds dictate he must, or control long irons to the green in cross-winds, if he does keep the driver in the his bag
I personally am going to lay Snedeker, but will not adivse as it is a costly exercise. Unfortunately, Goosen is 10 back so can not readily be traded. I will hold on and hope for that 65.
I personally am going to lay Snedeker, but will not adivse as it is a costly exercise. Unfortunately, Goosen is 10 back so can not readily be traded. I will hold on and hope for that 65.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Wednesday, 18 July 2012
Golf Tips - True South Classic Outright Selections
Outright selections
1.5pts EW Roberto Castro at 28/1 (Various)
1pt EW Boo Weekley at 66/1 (Various)
1.25pts EW Joe Durant at 100/1 (Coral)
Hi all,
I am blog tipping exhausted this week after the British Open and will not have chance to provide a sound update on this event. However, I have run the model according to the attributes I perceive as key this week and Joe Durant ranks 1, Boo Weekley 3 and Roberto Castro 4. Favourite De Jonge is 2nd in my ranks and not quite justifiable value, despite having obvious claims here.
I am very happy to back my system here, as each tip makes sense when looking further at stats and recent trend lines in key areas.
I have only selected 3 players, due to the rife inconsistency in the field. Durant for me is exceptional value and I am happy to risk an extra half point on him here.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
1.5pts EW Roberto Castro at 28/1 (Various)
1pt EW Boo Weekley at 66/1 (Various)
1.25pts EW Joe Durant at 100/1 (Coral)
Hi all,
I am blog tipping exhausted this week after the British Open and will not have chance to provide a sound update on this event. However, I have run the model according to the attributes I perceive as key this week and Joe Durant ranks 1, Boo Weekley 3 and Roberto Castro 4. Favourite De Jonge is 2nd in my ranks and not quite justifiable value, despite having obvious claims here.
I am very happy to back my system here, as each tip makes sense when looking further at stats and recent trend lines in key areas.
I have only selected 3 players, due to the rife inconsistency in the field. Durant for me is exceptional value and I am happy to risk an extra half point on him here.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Golf tips - British Open special bets
British Open outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-outright_17.html
British Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-tournament-form.html
British Open Player form guide (table only) http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-form-guide-table.html
Selections
Top nationality markets
Top Australasian
1.5pts EW Marcus Fraser at 16/1 (3 places, 1/4 odds for a place, Stan James)
Top Continental European
1pt EW Fredrik Jacobson at 14/1 (4 places, 1/4 odds wth Coral/Totesport)
Already advised
Top South African
1.5pts EW Retief Goosen top South African at 10/1 (BlueSq)
1st round leader
0.2pts EW Russ Cochran at 500/1 (BetVictor)
0.2pts EW Johnson Wagner at 250/1 (Betfred/Totesport)
0.2pts EW James Morrison at 200/1 (Various)
0.2pts EW Davis Love III at 125/1 (Various)
0.2pts EW Darren Clarke at 125/1 (Various)
British Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-tournament-form.html
British Open Player form guide (table only) http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-form-guide-table.html
Selections
Top nationality markets
Top Australasian
1.5pts EW Marcus Fraser at 16/1 (3 places, 1/4 odds for a place, Stan James)
Top Continental European
1pt EW Fredrik Jacobson at 14/1 (4 places, 1/4 odds wth Coral/Totesport)
Already advised
Top South African
1.5pts EW Retief Goosen top South African at 10/1 (BlueSq)
1st round leader
0.2pts EW Russ Cochran at 500/1 (BetVictor)
0.2pts EW Johnson Wagner at 250/1 (Betfred/Totesport)
0.2pts EW James Morrison at 200/1 (Various)
0.2pts EW Davis Love III at 125/1 (Various)
0.2pts EW Darren Clarke at 125/1 (Various)
Tuesday, 17 July 2012
Golf Tips - British Open Outright selections
Outright selections
1.5pts EW Jason Dufner at 50/1 (Various, but take 50s with BetVictor)
1pt EW BenCurtis at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places with BetVictor)
0.5pts EW John Huh at 300/1 (Various, but take 6 places)
0.5pts EW Marcus Fraser at 250/1 (Various, but take 6 places with BetVictor)
already advised
1pt EW Raphael Jacquelin at 150/1 (Paddy Power, 7 places)
2pts EW Lee Westwood at 16/1 (Various, but take Paddy Power's 7 places)
2pts win Retief Goosen at 180 (Betfair only, with a view to trade)
Specials bet
1.5pts EW Retief Goosen top South African at 10/1 (BlueSq)
British Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-tournament-form.html
British Open Player form guide (table only) http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-form-guide-table.html
British Open special bets http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-special-bets.html
Tournament preview
Like no other event, I have really struggled to settle upon my selections this week. The Open Championship is truly the most bewildering event in which to settle on a group of golfers with confidence for 2 headline reasons. First, links golf at its toughest can disarm the greatest and most able golfer. Second, the case for so many can be written that whittling potential challengers down to a select few is so tough.
With the winners in the last 10 years including the likes of Clarke, Ben Curtis (then, very much unfancied), Todd Hamilton, Louis Oosthuizen (400/1 back then) and Stewart Cink, we can clearly see that the Open can throw up a huge range of potential winners in addition to the obvious candidates at the head of the market. With Tiger and Lee Westwood the only players below 20/1 in the betting, there genuinely is an Open feel to this week's event. Add in a string of first time winners in recent majors and an ongoing jostle for the number 1 spot and it is hard to be definitive about this most open of majors.
However, while uncertainty reigns at the top of world golf, so opportunities exist elsewhere to prosper.
Lytham is a great test of a golfer's ability and has thrown up a number of winners who are in the hall of frame bracket over the years. A par 70 for the first time (par 71 previously) and measuring longer by almost 200 yards since the Open was last here in 2001, Lytham has been toughened slightly this time around in terms of the length of the course. However, it appears without question that this golf course will bare its teeth more this time. The reason for this is a combination of weather and the hazards on the course. England has endured a particularly wet Summer, which has meant that links courses up and down the country are greener than usual and the rough made lusher. Lytham's rough was tough enough without this added complication and the premium on driving well is heightened as a result. Immediately following a pratice round, Tiger Woods described the thickest parts of the rough as "almost unplayable" and Darren Clarke was unequivocal in his assertion that driving accuracy over distance was the key to going well here.
The forecast for the week is also indifferent, but at time of writing, there is no clear indication that early/late starters will be significantly better or worse off than late/early starters. Given this, I am just picking golfers I fancy to win.
The photofit for this week's winner first neglects the specific course used for this year's open. Links golf is a test of patience and mental strength, and fortitude when things do not go well. It is a also a test of imagination and shot-making ability, allied to an ability to maintain form and confidence in a swing that will be challenged by varying breeze. Above all, course management is king.
Lytham specifically demands good ball strikers who can keep the ball in play particularly from the tee. Around the green, it is necessary to scramble well, unless you can outplay the field by hitting more greens in regulation. The greens are a little slower here, which may equalise the field somewhat in putting. However, nerve will be required in converting the likely many testing putts from 3-8 feet that a golfer will have this week. Also of note is the fact that David Duval won on a much duskier Lytham in 2001 with a score of -10, having played the 3 pars 5s in -10 for the week. The 6th hole is a par 4 now, but again, a player will want to maximise on the par 5s and the 6th hole this week if they want to score positively.
I have already mentioned the penal rough. In addition to this, 206 strategically placed and by and large nightmarish to escape bunkers await careless or errant golfers this week. Keeping the ball on the short stuff will be utterly critical.
My selections
I have already discussed the merits of Goosen, Westwood and Jacquelin in earlier previews, but I will emphasise the key points here.
As I said in my preview of a couple of weeks ago I was keen to get Jacquelin onside before his price contracted and after a good finish at the Open De France and a further good display in Scotland last week, Jacquelin has indeed shortened in the betting. Ladbrokes are still holding out at 150s, but the 7 places at 150s advised has now long gone. Jacquelin lay 107th after round 1 of the Open Championship last year, but then proceeded to play some tremendous golf in difficult conditions to finish 8th. In rounds 2-4, Jacquelin produced the 1st, 5th and 3rd best rounds of the day to charge up the leaderboard. Recent form coming in this year is strong too. In the last 6 events, Jacquelin has been 18th, 21st (US Open), 3rd and 16th to confirm he is playing well more often than not right now. Jacquelin also played Lytham in 2001, finishing a highly encouraging 13th. Jacquelin is a player in form, with links history, Lytham history and an affinity for playing tough courses well. My nagging doubt re Jacquelin is his accuracy off the tee. He has improved of late, but must drive the ball really solidly if he wants to really get in the mix this week. An excellent scrambler, which means he can often make par, but he will need to sharpen up off the tee to truly contend. At 150/1, I think there is plenty enough value to find out.
As soon as you place a higher premium on total driving, hitting greens and generally displaying great ball striking prowess, thoughts immediately turn to Lee Westwood. So often the nearly man in majors, I suspect some people will question the wisdom of this choice. Question is, who do you trust more to get in the mix? Put simply, Westwood is the ONLY consistent performer in majors in the last 3 years. Sure, some such as Mahan have done better than most and Dufner stands up well in the last 3 major events, but Westwood, with 8 tops 10s in 11 major starts, 6 of which were top 3s, is the go to man for me this week. At 16/1, I am getting 3/1 the place and this on a man who has been profitable at evens to place over the last 11 majors. Westwood has actually never placed in a major held in England, which is a strange anomaly, but I do not think there is a specific factor which makes that so. I also like the theoretical grace he gets here from slower putting surfaces, which hopefully will allow him to roll his putts as well as the majority of the field. Although some doubts exist from his slip last time out, which cause his horrific start to round 3 in France, I do not think he would have entertained playing round 4 had he been anything but comfortable. We are with Westwood here for the second straight major. Odds are, we get a place and hopefully better.
I will skip to Jason Dufner next, because I want to continue a theme mentioned with Westwood above. Dufner is not the greatest putter on tour, but I do not think it will be as costly as other events such as the Masters. For some time now, Dufners ball striking stats have been nothing short of sensational. Also, as mentioned above, Dufner is now demonstrating that he is ready to contend for Majors having all but won the PGA last year, led the Masters at halfway and then finished a fine 4th at the US Open. Dufner has nothing here in terms of demonstrable British Open form, but he is a different beast now and I would not be surprised to see him right there come Sunday evening. Dufner is 3rd in my recent GIR stats on the PGA tour and sits 23rd for driving accuracy, whilst still 40th for driving distance. Add also that Dufner is a brilliant scrambler, is top 5 for bogey avoidance on tour and has two first places, a 2nd and 4th in the last 5 events and we have an outstanding player at 50/1. Dufner is lightly raced, having not teed it up since the US Open. Whether this is good or bad remains to be seen, but 50/1 could look like the price of the year in a few days time.
I explained my summary logic for Retief Goosen in the tounrament form guide (link above). Retief Goosen is a model of consistency in this event and I believe 110/1 and 7 places from Paddy Power will attract a steady stream of bets as punters do their homework...........or read this. Goosen missed lat year, but in 10 straight years prior, Goosen averaged a 12th placed finish, which is stunning consistency around a variety of links courses. This is Goosen's run in those 10 years, Lytham 2001 first: 13th, 8th, 10th, 7th, 5th, 14th, 23rd, 32nd, 5th, 6th. Make no mistake, Goosen is actually likely to keep punters interested come the final day. Goosen has shot nothing worse than 76 in his last 40 rounds, which is tremendous consistency. Although weather may be a factor, I am going to play that Goosen's consistency gives us a run this week. There is currently strong liquidity for Goosen at 180 on Betfair and that is the advised play for me here. I think there is every chance that Goosen is hovering somewhere within 5 shots of the summit come the weekend, which could yield a strong opportunity to trade. Goosen has a 5th, 10th and 23rd in his last 5 starts too, to show that his recent form stands up pretty well (his other two events were MCs). The 5th was in the Volvo Matchplay in Spain (where he over-performed versus expectation). His 10th was at the super-tough US Open and his 23rd at the tough Open De France. Goosen then has served warning that he is ready to again contend where the brief is for players that can grind and plot their way around the course. I will put some specials up later in the week, but the 10/1 with 3 places for top South African by BlueSq is one of the best bets I have seen in a long time. Sure, there are some great South Africans out there, but if Goosen does what he does every time he tees it up in this event, he is almost certain to at least place.
Some longer shots to finish. Ben Curtis is very attractive at 100/1. A winner this year, and 1st in 2003 and 7th and 8th in 2007/8 at the British Open makes the headline chances of Curtis strong here. Curtis is having a bit of a renaissance on tour this year, having done little since last winning in 2006. His fine finishes in the British Open in 2007 and 2008 show that he can perform here however strong his general game is on tour. The 2008 winning score was +3, showing that if it does get really tough this week, he can hang around. In 2003, Curtis won with a score of -1, which may look very handy after 72 holes around this course if repeated this year. Curtis' form dipped a little after winning earlier this year, but there are signs that his form is coming back. Curtis' driving accuracy and GIr stats are well in the top 10 on tour this year. In my recent ranks, Curtis has demonstrated that he is maintaining that sort of ball striking ability, sitting 24th in driving accuracy and 27th in GIR. His recent putting has been fairly average and it is that in the main which has slower his progress. However, like Westwood and Dufner, I think that is a lessened factor here. Curtis is a great option at a triple figure price.
We highlighted earlier some of the big priced winners in the last 10 years, Curtis included. In addition to Jacquelin and Curtis who are both triple figure odds, I am going to players at really big prices. John Huh is 300/1 here, but has had a real strong debut year on tour to date. Where I like his chances here is that he is one of the most accurate players on tour. For driving accuracy and GIR, Huh is 24th and 25th respectively on the PGA tour in my recent ranks and sits inside the top 10 on tour for the season is driving accuracy. Generally a very good putter, Huh may struggle if he starts missing greens. However, it would not surprise me at all if he were to get hot early and hang around near the top of the leaderboard. At 300/1, Huh is a great price.
Marcus Fraser is in great shape on the European tour this season. In tough conditions 3 starts ago, Fraser was edged in a play-off for the title. This was the 4th top 6 of the season for Fraser, who currently sits inside the top 20 in the Race to Dubai standings. Fraser is a very good and accurate driver of the golf ball, but also a fantastic scrambler and putter. I can see him churning his way around this course and grinding out pars hole after hole, in which much the same way Thomas Bjorn did last year when placing 4th. I really think he could feature in this event and 250/1 for one the most consistent players on the European tour this year holds great appeal.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
1.5pts EW Jason Dufner at 50/1 (Various, but take 50s with BetVictor)
1pt EW BenCurtis at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places with BetVictor)
0.5pts EW John Huh at 300/1 (Various, but take 6 places)
0.5pts EW Marcus Fraser at 250/1 (Various, but take 6 places with BetVictor)
already advised
1pt EW Raphael Jacquelin at 150/1 (Paddy Power, 7 places)
2pts EW Lee Westwood at 16/1 (Various, but take Paddy Power's 7 places)
2pts win Retief Goosen at 180 (Betfair only, with a view to trade)
Specials bet
1.5pts EW Retief Goosen top South African at 10/1 (BlueSq)
British Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-tournament-form.html
British Open Player form guide (table only) http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-form-guide-table.html
British Open special bets http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-special-bets.html
Tournament preview
Like no other event, I have really struggled to settle upon my selections this week. The Open Championship is truly the most bewildering event in which to settle on a group of golfers with confidence for 2 headline reasons. First, links golf at its toughest can disarm the greatest and most able golfer. Second, the case for so many can be written that whittling potential challengers down to a select few is so tough.
With the winners in the last 10 years including the likes of Clarke, Ben Curtis (then, very much unfancied), Todd Hamilton, Louis Oosthuizen (400/1 back then) and Stewart Cink, we can clearly see that the Open can throw up a huge range of potential winners in addition to the obvious candidates at the head of the market. With Tiger and Lee Westwood the only players below 20/1 in the betting, there genuinely is an Open feel to this week's event. Add in a string of first time winners in recent majors and an ongoing jostle for the number 1 spot and it is hard to be definitive about this most open of majors.
However, while uncertainty reigns at the top of world golf, so opportunities exist elsewhere to prosper.
Lytham is a great test of a golfer's ability and has thrown up a number of winners who are in the hall of frame bracket over the years. A par 70 for the first time (par 71 previously) and measuring longer by almost 200 yards since the Open was last here in 2001, Lytham has been toughened slightly this time around in terms of the length of the course. However, it appears without question that this golf course will bare its teeth more this time. The reason for this is a combination of weather and the hazards on the course. England has endured a particularly wet Summer, which has meant that links courses up and down the country are greener than usual and the rough made lusher. Lytham's rough was tough enough without this added complication and the premium on driving well is heightened as a result. Immediately following a pratice round, Tiger Woods described the thickest parts of the rough as "almost unplayable" and Darren Clarke was unequivocal in his assertion that driving accuracy over distance was the key to going well here.
The forecast for the week is also indifferent, but at time of writing, there is no clear indication that early/late starters will be significantly better or worse off than late/early starters. Given this, I am just picking golfers I fancy to win.
The photofit for this week's winner first neglects the specific course used for this year's open. Links golf is a test of patience and mental strength, and fortitude when things do not go well. It is a also a test of imagination and shot-making ability, allied to an ability to maintain form and confidence in a swing that will be challenged by varying breeze. Above all, course management is king.
Lytham specifically demands good ball strikers who can keep the ball in play particularly from the tee. Around the green, it is necessary to scramble well, unless you can outplay the field by hitting more greens in regulation. The greens are a little slower here, which may equalise the field somewhat in putting. However, nerve will be required in converting the likely many testing putts from 3-8 feet that a golfer will have this week. Also of note is the fact that David Duval won on a much duskier Lytham in 2001 with a score of -10, having played the 3 pars 5s in -10 for the week. The 6th hole is a par 4 now, but again, a player will want to maximise on the par 5s and the 6th hole this week if they want to score positively.
I have already mentioned the penal rough. In addition to this, 206 strategically placed and by and large nightmarish to escape bunkers await careless or errant golfers this week. Keeping the ball on the short stuff will be utterly critical.
My selections
I have already discussed the merits of Goosen, Westwood and Jacquelin in earlier previews, but I will emphasise the key points here.
As I said in my preview of a couple of weeks ago I was keen to get Jacquelin onside before his price contracted and after a good finish at the Open De France and a further good display in Scotland last week, Jacquelin has indeed shortened in the betting. Ladbrokes are still holding out at 150s, but the 7 places at 150s advised has now long gone. Jacquelin lay 107th after round 1 of the Open Championship last year, but then proceeded to play some tremendous golf in difficult conditions to finish 8th. In rounds 2-4, Jacquelin produced the 1st, 5th and 3rd best rounds of the day to charge up the leaderboard. Recent form coming in this year is strong too. In the last 6 events, Jacquelin has been 18th, 21st (US Open), 3rd and 16th to confirm he is playing well more often than not right now. Jacquelin also played Lytham in 2001, finishing a highly encouraging 13th. Jacquelin is a player in form, with links history, Lytham history and an affinity for playing tough courses well. My nagging doubt re Jacquelin is his accuracy off the tee. He has improved of late, but must drive the ball really solidly if he wants to really get in the mix this week. An excellent scrambler, which means he can often make par, but he will need to sharpen up off the tee to truly contend. At 150/1, I think there is plenty enough value to find out.
As soon as you place a higher premium on total driving, hitting greens and generally displaying great ball striking prowess, thoughts immediately turn to Lee Westwood. So often the nearly man in majors, I suspect some people will question the wisdom of this choice. Question is, who do you trust more to get in the mix? Put simply, Westwood is the ONLY consistent performer in majors in the last 3 years. Sure, some such as Mahan have done better than most and Dufner stands up well in the last 3 major events, but Westwood, with 8 tops 10s in 11 major starts, 6 of which were top 3s, is the go to man for me this week. At 16/1, I am getting 3/1 the place and this on a man who has been profitable at evens to place over the last 11 majors. Westwood has actually never placed in a major held in England, which is a strange anomaly, but I do not think there is a specific factor which makes that so. I also like the theoretical grace he gets here from slower putting surfaces, which hopefully will allow him to roll his putts as well as the majority of the field. Although some doubts exist from his slip last time out, which cause his horrific start to round 3 in France, I do not think he would have entertained playing round 4 had he been anything but comfortable. We are with Westwood here for the second straight major. Odds are, we get a place and hopefully better.
I will skip to Jason Dufner next, because I want to continue a theme mentioned with Westwood above. Dufner is not the greatest putter on tour, but I do not think it will be as costly as other events such as the Masters. For some time now, Dufners ball striking stats have been nothing short of sensational. Also, as mentioned above, Dufner is now demonstrating that he is ready to contend for Majors having all but won the PGA last year, led the Masters at halfway and then finished a fine 4th at the US Open. Dufner has nothing here in terms of demonstrable British Open form, but he is a different beast now and I would not be surprised to see him right there come Sunday evening. Dufner is 3rd in my recent GIR stats on the PGA tour and sits 23rd for driving accuracy, whilst still 40th for driving distance. Add also that Dufner is a brilliant scrambler, is top 5 for bogey avoidance on tour and has two first places, a 2nd and 4th in the last 5 events and we have an outstanding player at 50/1. Dufner is lightly raced, having not teed it up since the US Open. Whether this is good or bad remains to be seen, but 50/1 could look like the price of the year in a few days time.
I explained my summary logic for Retief Goosen in the tounrament form guide (link above). Retief Goosen is a model of consistency in this event and I believe 110/1 and 7 places from Paddy Power will attract a steady stream of bets as punters do their homework...........or read this. Goosen missed lat year, but in 10 straight years prior, Goosen averaged a 12th placed finish, which is stunning consistency around a variety of links courses. This is Goosen's run in those 10 years, Lytham 2001 first: 13th, 8th, 10th, 7th, 5th, 14th, 23rd, 32nd, 5th, 6th. Make no mistake, Goosen is actually likely to keep punters interested come the final day. Goosen has shot nothing worse than 76 in his last 40 rounds, which is tremendous consistency. Although weather may be a factor, I am going to play that Goosen's consistency gives us a run this week. There is currently strong liquidity for Goosen at 180 on Betfair and that is the advised play for me here. I think there is every chance that Goosen is hovering somewhere within 5 shots of the summit come the weekend, which could yield a strong opportunity to trade. Goosen has a 5th, 10th and 23rd in his last 5 starts too, to show that his recent form stands up pretty well (his other two events were MCs). The 5th was in the Volvo Matchplay in Spain (where he over-performed versus expectation). His 10th was at the super-tough US Open and his 23rd at the tough Open De France. Goosen then has served warning that he is ready to again contend where the brief is for players that can grind and plot their way around the course. I will put some specials up later in the week, but the 10/1 with 3 places for top South African by BlueSq is one of the best bets I have seen in a long time. Sure, there are some great South Africans out there, but if Goosen does what he does every time he tees it up in this event, he is almost certain to at least place.
Some longer shots to finish. Ben Curtis is very attractive at 100/1. A winner this year, and 1st in 2003 and 7th and 8th in 2007/8 at the British Open makes the headline chances of Curtis strong here. Curtis is having a bit of a renaissance on tour this year, having done little since last winning in 2006. His fine finishes in the British Open in 2007 and 2008 show that he can perform here however strong his general game is on tour. The 2008 winning score was +3, showing that if it does get really tough this week, he can hang around. In 2003, Curtis won with a score of -1, which may look very handy after 72 holes around this course if repeated this year. Curtis' form dipped a little after winning earlier this year, but there are signs that his form is coming back. Curtis' driving accuracy and GIr stats are well in the top 10 on tour this year. In my recent ranks, Curtis has demonstrated that he is maintaining that sort of ball striking ability, sitting 24th in driving accuracy and 27th in GIR. His recent putting has been fairly average and it is that in the main which has slower his progress. However, like Westwood and Dufner, I think that is a lessened factor here. Curtis is a great option at a triple figure price.
We highlighted earlier some of the big priced winners in the last 10 years, Curtis included. In addition to Jacquelin and Curtis who are both triple figure odds, I am going to players at really big prices. John Huh is 300/1 here, but has had a real strong debut year on tour to date. Where I like his chances here is that he is one of the most accurate players on tour. For driving accuracy and GIR, Huh is 24th and 25th respectively on the PGA tour in my recent ranks and sits inside the top 10 on tour for the season is driving accuracy. Generally a very good putter, Huh may struggle if he starts missing greens. However, it would not surprise me at all if he were to get hot early and hang around near the top of the leaderboard. At 300/1, Huh is a great price.
Marcus Fraser is in great shape on the European tour this season. In tough conditions 3 starts ago, Fraser was edged in a play-off for the title. This was the 4th top 6 of the season for Fraser, who currently sits inside the top 20 in the Race to Dubai standings. Fraser is a very good and accurate driver of the golf ball, but also a fantastic scrambler and putter. I can see him churning his way around this course and grinding out pars hole after hole, in which much the same way Thomas Bjorn did last year when placing 4th. I really think he could feature in this event and 250/1 for one the most consistent players on the European tour this year holds great appeal.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Golf tips - British Open Form guide (table only)
British Open outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-outright_17.html
British Open special bets http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-special-bets.html
British Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-tournament-form.html
British Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-tournament-form.html
I am going to do little more than post my form table here for your reference this week. the simple reason for this is that I do not actually rate form as all that critical a factor here. One only has to look at the relatively unheralded form of Clarke, Oosthuizen and Cink coming in to the event in the last 3 years to know that a player can find his game at the British Open if he gets the mental side of the game right. Indeed, even Harrington before that trio was not in great form before retaining his title in 2008.
However, with no fewer than 21 players averaging under 30 for the last 3 events they have entered on the PGA or European Tour, it is clear that the world's best golfers are here and plenty enough of them are in fine form.
The market is headed up by Jason Dufner and Francesco Molinari, both of whom have been in fine form on tour. Both also, perhaps more significantly, are competing regularly for wins on tour due to their ball-striking. Do not be surprised to see either or both contending come Sunday. As I said, this post is really for your reference and I would not consider any bets based upon form here.
Monday, 16 July 2012
Golf Tips - British Open Tournament Form Guide
Outright selections
2pts EW Lee Westwood at 16/1 (Various, but take Paddy Power's 7 places)
2pts win Retief Goosen at 180 (Betfair only, with a view to trade)
Already advised 1pt EW Raphael Jacquelin at 150/1 (Paddy Power, 7 places)
British Open outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-outright_17.html
British Open special bets http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-special-bets.html
Golf tips - British Open Form guide (table only) http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-form-guide-table.html
Hi all
As usual, my tournament form analysis below.
My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:
2pts EW Lee Westwood at 16/1 (Various, but take Paddy Power's 7 places)
2pts win Retief Goosen at 180 (Betfair only, with a view to trade)
Already advised 1pt EW Raphael Jacquelin at 150/1 (Paddy Power, 7 places)
British Open outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-outright_17.html
British Open special bets http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-special-bets.html
Golf tips - British Open Form guide (table only) http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-form-guide-table.html
Hi all
As usual, my tournament form analysis below.
My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:
- Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
- Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
- Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.
- Course experience points - I am not using this metric this week as, although Lytham was used in 2001, it is too far back to truly differentiate the field here for this analysis, given that the number of players having played the course 11 years ago is so low. In my outright preview, I will of course consider any previous Lytham experience in making my final selections.
As we are looking at tournament form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year.
So, looking purely at tournament histor, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:
Stewart Cink heads my rankings here, due to a really consistent British Open record, climaxed by a win in 2009. Few players can match Cink's record of 6 top 34 finishes in 11 years, with the win in 2009 and 6th place in 2007 the highlights. Cink is as big as 225/1 with Bet365, which holds some appeal given his form here. Cink also finished a useful 30th at Lytham in 2001, so has some course form. Against him is form coming in to the event, but the same can be said of him in 2009, when he won the Open having done nothing on tour for the previous 4 months. Cink is not quite the force he was on the PGA Tour right now, but this is a dark horse pick I could not put you off at the price.
Darren Clarke is 2nd in my ranks for very obvious reasons. The defending champion this year, Clarke has played pretty horribly since winning the Claret Jug in 2011. Following that win, Clarke was given the most laughable major starting odds I have ever and probably will ever see : 66/1 for the PGA last year. Since then, his form has prompted a dose of realism from layers and Clarke is a general 150/1 in the format of golf he loves most this week. Open winners have a strong trend of having won earlier in the same year, which was true also of Clarke, who was in much better shape in 2011 coming in. Clarke however, recently hinted in the Irish Open that he may be ready to give punters at least early excitement in his defence of the title. In the last 11 years, Clarke's other headline result is a 3rd place.............here at Lytham in 2001. Clarke also played Lytham in 1996, finishing T11. I find it difficult to match up his form with any realistic hope of winning, but Clarke will have his backers this week. I am not going get to misty eyed and sentimental about Clarke here - between 1st in 2011 and 3rd in 2001, Clarke failed to crack the top 10. He is a swerve for me.
Tied 2nd in my ranks with Clarke is Lee Westwood. Westwood's MC last year was a surprise, but do not let that anomaly cloud his credentials to contend here. 2nd in 2010 and 3rd in 2009 (plus a 4th in 2004) allied to strong major finishes everywhere else in recent years, Westwood is perhaps the best person to trust to contend this week. The question is, can he get over the line and win the event. It is a tough question, although I believe Westwood's total driving will again set him up well here versus the great majority of the field. I tipped Westwood up win only in the US Open in what was another event with a high premium on keeping the ball in play and Westwood finished well, but not quite well enough. If Westwood can start well (as he did in 2009 and 2010), he is an extremely strong place contender and may just be the last man standing. I want him onside again this week.
Retief Goosen is a model of consistency in this event and i believe 110/1 and 7 places from Paddy Power will attract a steady stream of bets as punters do their homework...........or read this. Goosen missed lat year, but in 10 straight years prior, Goosen averaged a 12th placed finish, which is stunning consistency around a variety of links courses. This is Goosen's run in those 10 years, Lytham 2001 first: 13th, 8th, 10th, 7th, 5th, 14th, 23rd, 32nd, 5th, 6th. Make no mistake, Goosen is actually likely to keep punters interested come the final day. Goosen has shot nothing worse than 76 in his last 40 rounds, which is tremendous consistency. Although weather may be a factor, I am going to play that Goosen's consistency gives us a run this week. There is currently strong liquidity for Goosen at 180 on Betfair and that is the advised play for me here. I think there is every chance that Goosen is hovering somewhere within 5 shots of the summit come the weekend, which could yield a strong opportunity to trade. goosen has a 5th, 10th and 23rd in his last 5 starts too, to show that his recent form stands up pretty well (his other two events were MCs). The 5th was in the Volvo Matchplay in Spain (where he over-performed versus expectation). His 10th was at the super-tough US Open and his 23rd at the tough Open De France. Goosen then has served warning that he is ready to again contend where the brief is for players that can grind and plot their way around the course. There are few better. I will put some specials up later in the week, but the 10/1 with 3 places for top South African by BlueSq is one of the best bets I have seen in a long time. Sure, there are some great South Africans out there, but if Goosen does what he does every time he tees it up in this event, he is almost certain to at least place.
Sergio ties Goosen in my ranks here, due to 7 top 10s in 11 starts, which includes 9th at Lytham in 2001. I have a nagging doubt re Sergio which is on top of his obvious nearly man tag down the years. When not far from the lead at the Masters this year, Garcia said he was not able to win a major at that point in time (I can't remember the exact quote, but it was that order of magnitude). That is not the mentality you want to have when trying to beat the World's best. However, the British Open is different as often it is a case of last man standing rather than being the guy who storms through to victory. Garcia's last win at the end of last year was at Valderrama, which reaffirms that he can still play tough tracks extremely well. His 9th last year in the Open was yet another reminder that his flair and creativity, allied to an impeccable short game, are traits that make him a likely contender again. Arguably the most popular potential winner from outside the British Isles, Garcia has strong claims this week and a strong week from him would be a contending week. My concern is Garcia's price. He is no better than 35/1 with layers offering place positions. I am genuinely teetering over whether Garcia makes my team and a forecast closer to the time which favours his early/late tee slot in the first two rounds may sway me. The other factor that nags at me is his opening grouping with Rose and Woods. Garcia's famous battle with Woods at the Masters is over a decade ago now. I simply do not know how he will react if Woods starts well in particular. I will probably reluctantly leave him out in the final reckoning, but it is far from an easy call.
Other notable performers:
Romero - Played 4 times, finishing 8th, 3rd (should have won), 32nd and 13th
Ben Curtis - 1st 2003, 8th 2007, 7th 2008. Although form not as strong as earlier this year, he is a 2012 winner and may just go well here.
Davis Love III - 21st Lytham 2001, 14th 2002, 4th 2003, 5th 2004, 9th last year.
Dustin Johnson - 14th, 2nd last two years. 55/1 will not last if you are keen
Ernie Els - 8 top 8 finishes between 2001 and 2009, including a win in 2002 and 3rd here in 2001
Jim Furyk - 4th 06, 12th 07, 5th 08
Luke Donald - 5th 09, 11th 10
Martin Kaymer - 7th 2010, 12th 2011. Hinting at form last week.
Padraig Harrington - 1,1 2007 and 2008. Very strong and consistent form of late
Phil Mickelson - 3rd 2004, 2nd 2011 and 30th here in 2001. Nice tune up last week
Raphael Jacquelin - 8th 2011 and 13th here in 2001. Tip already advised
Richard Green - 4th 2007 and 16th 2011. Finally, some form found coming in to this week.
Rickie Fowler - played 2, 14th and 5th. Big threat.
Rory McIlroy - 3rd, 25th last two years
Steve Stricker - 8th 07, 7th 08, 12th 11.
Thomas Bjorn - 8th 2002, 2nd 2003, 4th last year. MC here in 2001. Form a little indifferent, but this is the Open........
Tiger - 4th 03, 9th 04, 1st 05, 1st 06 . Hasn't worked out to win when really tough yet at this event and for me not a value price to do so this year.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Sunday, 15 July 2012
OneBet Racing Selections - 15th July
15th July
Southwell
13.40 Red not Blue 2/1 - 2pt Win
14.10 Otto Quercus 9/1 - 1pt ew
14.40 Avanos 4/1 - 2pt Win
15.10 Kingdom of Munster 7/1-1pt Win OneBet Longshot - Pa Murphy 33/1 - 1pt ew
15.40 Robbie 7/1 - 1pt Win , Folk Tune 18/1 - 1pt ew
16.10 Fiveways 14/1 - 1pt ew
16.40 Safe Investment 8/1 - 2Pt Win,
17.10 Mollly Oscar3/1 -2pt Win
Meeting Total:
Southwell
13.40 Red not Blue 2/1 - 2pt Win
14.10 Otto Quercus 9/1 - 1pt ew
14.40 Avanos 4/1 - 2pt Win
15.10 Kingdom of Munster 7/1-1pt Win OneBet Longshot - Pa Murphy 33/1 - 1pt ew
15.40 Robbie 7/1 - 1pt Win , Folk Tune 18/1 - 1pt ew
16.10 Fiveways 14/1 - 1pt ew
16.40 Safe Investment 8/1 - 2Pt Win,
17.10 Mollly Oscar3/1 -2pt Win
Meeting Total:
Tuesday, 10 July 2012
Golf tips - John Deere Classic Outright selections
Outright selections
1.25pt EW Ben Crane at 66/1 (Ladbrokes, SportingBet)
0.5pts EW Ken Duke at 66./1 (Various)
Already advised
1.5pts EW Jonathan Byrd at 28/1 (Various)
1.25pts EW John Senden at 40/1 (Various)
John Deere Classic Player Form Guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-player.html
John Deere Classic tournament form guide - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-tournament.html
Approaches within 100 yards 5
Ben Crane ranks 6th despite a nothing record in this event (MC 2008, 32nd 2004, MC 2003), but I think he has a strong game to prosper here. A good putter ranker 14th in the all-rounds this year, Ben Crane has very strong recent stats of 14th in driving accuracy, 21st in GIR and 37th putting on tour. A good scrambler and 8th in birdie or better average, he surely finally has a strong week here this week. It is unusual for me to put more than 1pt EW on a 66/1 shot, but I want the value to be maximised here. In my mind, this guy is a 40/1 shot this week.
I have changed my mind on Duke. I said in my preview that he was maybe a good back to lay option or a good 1st round leader bet. However, he doesn't have an early tee time, so I would be surprised to see him right there early. My system has him 7th versus the layers' 22nd, but I need to affirm that by looking more closely at his game. Duke's recent putting stats are strong and he sits 16th on tour for strokes gained putting. A straight drive who hits more than his fair share of greens, Duke is also a good scrambler and sits 34th for birdies. I also like the fact that Stricker 3 times and Perry before him were in their 40s when winning here. Hopefully Duke enjoys the relatively easy challenge here and gets on a roll. Do not be surprised to see a hot round from Duke which propels him right in to contention this week.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
1.25pt EW Ben Crane at 66/1 (Ladbrokes, SportingBet)
0.5pts EW Ken Duke at 66./1 (Various)
Already advised
1.5pts EW Jonathan Byrd at 28/1 (Various)
1.25pts EW John Senden at 40/1 (Various)
John Deere Classic Player Form Guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-player.html
John Deere Classic tournament form guide - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-tournament.html
Reason for selections
On the eve of the tournament and having already shared my selections with you for this week, I see little merit in writing chapter and verse on the reason for my selections.
However, I will share with you my top 20 rank for this event and provide the summary reasoning for my selections this week.
First, some comments on my logic for this event. As well as looking at recent form, I considered the following headline attributes (the numbers in brackets represent the weighting given to each attribute):
| Scoring_average_actual | 8 |
| Scrambling | 3 |
| Driving acc recent | 4 |
| GIR recent | 8 |
| Putts recent | 8 |
I also looked at some longer term stats and recent scoring average to try and catch players coming in to form. I also gave an attribute of 5 to tournament form here. But simplistically, they are my key indicators this week. I have seen a lot written about generous fairways and accuracy not being a factor around here, but I simply disagree. Consider the headline stats for last year's event. The number to the right represents the average position for the players in the top 9 last year (11 players as 3 were T9th)
Driving distance: 76
Driving accuracy: 42
Greens in regulation: 27
Putts per round: 24
Bombers can do well here, as Kyle Stanley showed last year. However, Stanley actually did well because he ranked 1st in accuracy last year, not because he was leading the field in distance off the tee (28th). Indeed, in addition to 2nd place Stanley leading the accuracy stats, McQuillan (6th) and Zach Johnson (2nd) also showed the benefit of controlling the tee ball. Stricker won it last year because he led the field in putts. Kyle Stanley, who saw Stricker hole a good putt and a great putt on the last two holes to edge, will testify to that fact. So, greens hit and good putting will yield rewards here. Also, in keeping bogeys off the card, there is a lessened but not insignificant importance in getting up and down here.
OK, to my ranks then. I highlighted my misgivings about the value of Stricker and Johnson at the head of the market, which opened up my 4 midfield bets as being real value in my mind. Last week, I placed an over-large EW bet on Summerhays. At 150/1, he ranked 3rd in my system analysis. I couldn't ignore that and the 1pt EW bet was rewarded. I also added DeLaet at 200/1 and he gave us a great run as well, finishing 12th. The logic was sound, as all 5 placers were triple figure odds. This week, my results suggest the leaderboard will be littered with the better players in the field. Stricker and Zach Johnson surely have a great chance of being in the top 10 and I believe the 4 above also should give us a good run this week. My top 25 ranks are as follows:
If my rank is at least 3 higher than the bookies' rank, you will see "Yes" in the right-hand value column. You can see that the top 4 in my ranks are marginal value at best. I gave reasons why I could leave both Stricker and Johnson in my tournament preview. Ryan Palmer is in great form, but I am not sure he will score well enough to fit the brief this week. I am nervous about this statement, because he has done so before, but 25s is just too tight this week for me.
I gave my reasons for Byrd and Senden in the tournament preview. Here again are my comments.
John Senden ranks T5th in my rankings and I like his credentials here. Senden ranks well due to 12th last time here in 2010 adding to a win here in 2006. Senden's form line has a lot of similarities with the previous 2 years. In 2010, Senden in 10 events failed to break the top 30 before finishing 12th here. Last year, after an admittedly stronger first half of the year, Senden went on a run of 12 top 30 finishes in 13 events from the US Open to the end of the season. This year, Senden's form dipped a little in the weeks leading up to the US Open before finishing a fine 10th at Olympic. It feels distinctly possible that Senden performs well this week. 28th in approaches up to 100 yards to confirm his wedge play credentials, 12th in birdie or better, 5th in greens hit and 30th in driving accuracy, Senden looks very nicely set to contend this week and makes my team.
Jonathan Byrd. Suffering with his health a little in the last few events, Byrd continues to have a fine year on tour. And here, at the scene of a 2nd place finish in 2003 and 1st in 2007, Byrd surely will feel he can go close this week. 6th, 9th, 10th, 12th and 22nd in the last 6 events tells you that Byrd is in fine form. 6th in my bentgrass ranks for the last two years, 5th for my tournament rank here and 24th for the year in strokes gained putting, we can expect a big week from Byrd. I can not find a significant weakness here in terms of what I expect a contending golfer to display as Byrd is a strong wedge player, in the top 50 for birdies and scoring average adjusted. I like his chances this week, with my only niggle being that he might throw in a round close to par, which could be pivotal here. I would like 33s, but will take 28s, especially with the misgivings I have regarding Stricker and Zach at the head of the field
Ben Crane ranks 6th despite a nothing record in this event (MC 2008, 32nd 2004, MC 2003), but I think he has a strong game to prosper here. A good putter ranker 14th in the all-rounds this year, Ben Crane has very strong recent stats of 14th in driving accuracy, 21st in GIR and 37th putting on tour. A good scrambler and 8th in birdie or better average, he surely finally has a strong week here this week. It is unusual for me to put more than 1pt EW on a 66/1 shot, but I want the value to be maximised here. In my mind, this guy is a 40/1 shot this week.
I have changed my mind on Duke. I said in my preview that he was maybe a good back to lay option or a good 1st round leader bet. However, he doesn't have an early tee time, so I would be surprised to see him right there early. My system has him 7th versus the layers' 22nd, but I need to affirm that by looking more closely at his game. Duke's recent putting stats are strong and he sits 16th on tour for strokes gained putting. A straight drive who hits more than his fair share of greens, Duke is also a good scrambler and sits 34th for birdies. I also like the fact that Stricker 3 times and Perry before him were in their 40s when winning here. Hopefully Duke enjoys the relatively easy challenge here and gets on a roll. Do not be surprised to see a hot round from Duke which propels him right in to contention this week.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
Golf tips - John Deere Classic Tournament Form Guide
Outright selections
1.5pts EW Jonathan Byrd at 28/1 (Various)
1.25pts EW John Senden at 40/1 (Various)
John Deere Classic Outright Selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-outright.html
John Deere Classic Player Form Guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-player.html
Hi all
As usual, my course form analysis below.
My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:
1.5pts EW Jonathan Byrd at 28/1 (Various)
1.25pts EW John Senden at 40/1 (Various)
John Deere Classic Outright Selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-outright.html
John Deere Classic Player Form Guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-player.html
Hi all
As usual, my course form analysis below.
My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:
- Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
- Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
- Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.
- Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use. In reality, this is not a factor here as TPC Deere Run has been the host for the duration of my analysis
As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year.
So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:
Steve Stricker - I am not sure there is much point in saying too much about Steve Stricker's tournament form for this event. Stricker has won the last 3 editions of this event of course. Leading the tour for proximity to the hole this year and having won his opening event of the season, Stricker seems well set to go well again here. In the last 3 years, Sticker has hit 10 of 12 rounds in the 60s, including 61 and 64 in 2009, 60 and 62 in 2010 and 64 and 63 in 2011. So, do we have our winner elect again in Stricker? The answer is maybe. The answer of whether he is value at 7s is also a difficult one to answer strongly in the positive. Whilst Stricker's stellar wedge game will always give him chances on this course, I question how well he is putting right now.
In regulation events last year, Stricker ranked 57th, 6th 23rd, 23rd, 25th and 7th for total putts in the events leading up to this one. This year, only twice has he been in the top 30 for putts since the opening week of the season. Stricker averaged 23.5 in total putts last year before this event. This year, he averages 47. Is he, therefore, hitting more greens and hence having less one putts? Not really. Average 39th GIR before last year's event versus 51st this year again tells us Stricker is a little off his game. Also, Stricker finished the year 3rd in adjusted scoring last year and sits 30th this year, despite the jump forward last week. A somewhat lengthy analysis of Stricker, but hopefully I have explained why I have to leave him this week. 10/1 = must back. 7/1 = I will take my chances.
Zach Johnson, loves playing here on what is a home game for him. After 7 tries with nothing better than 20th, Johnson has been 2nd, 21st and 3rd in the last 3 years. He has also shown great form this year, with a run of 2nd (Heritage), 69th (Wells Fargo), 2nd (the Players) and 1st (Crowne Plaza) the clear highlight. Since then, however, Johnson has lost his way a little. With a MC, 41st and 64th in the last 3 events. Last year's 3rd was the culmination of a 4 event progression from 32nd down to 3rd, so clearly he arrived in better shape. Johnson was 34th in driving accuracy and 5th in greens hit last year at the Travellers and went on to place here. This year, 48th accuracy and 62nd in greens suggest all is not so well this time around. I can avoid Johnson here.
Charles Howell III is a very solid player here, with 5th, 39th and 23rd in the last 3 years adding to a distant 22nd and 25th. So, does he have it in him to go better? I don't think so. Howell is having a pretty average year. Usually so consistent, Howell's 6 top 10s in 2010 and 2011 eclipse his solitary top 10 this year (2nd in Howell's first event at the Sony Open). With nothing better than 27th in the last 8 events and pretty abject driving accuracy, greens hit and putting stats, he is a very poor value option for me at 50/1 this week.
Matt Jones will surprise many...........including me. Jones has placed in 2 of the last 3 years and 175/1 odds requires a second glance. However, Jones' form is dire this season. Jones has missed the cut by a distance in each of the last 4 events. Despite great odds, I can not have him this week, especially as his 5th place finish was preceded by a decent spell of form.
John Senden ranks T5th in my rankings and I like his credentials here. Senden ranks well due to 12th last time here in 2010 adding to a win here in 2006. Senden's form line has a lot of similarities with the previous 2 years. In 2010, Senden in 10 events failed to break the top 30 before finishing 12th here. Last year, after an admittedly stronger first half of the year, Senden went on a run of 12 top 30 finishes in 13 events from the US Open to the end of the season. This year, Senden's form dipped a little in the weeks leading up to the US Open before finishing a fine 10th at Olympic. It feels distinctly possible that Senden performs well this week. 28th in approaches up to 100 yards to confirm his wedge play credentials, 12th in birdie or better, 5th in greens hit and 30th in driving accuracy, Senden looks very nicely set to contend this week and makes my team.
In 6 events here, Tim Petrovic has 5 top 30s, with the highlight a 5th in 2009. However, Petrovic is in a pretty dark place this year, with only a 16th at the Mayakoba a hint that he can make his tour card. The positive is a much improved 38th last time out at the Greenbrier, but, even at 200/1 this man is tough to back this week. Despite putting well and driving straight last week, I can not have him on side. Petrovic is not making enough birdies this year and is not dialled in from within 100 yards. Greens hit is not critical here as players fire more readily for the pins, but any man who is 21st in accuracy but 144th in greens in the preceding event can not be trusted. Expect Petrovic to make far too money bogeys to have a chance this week.
Finally, Jonathan Byrd. Suffering with his health a little in the last few events, Byrd continues to have a fine year on tour. And here, at the scene of a 2nd place finish in 2003 and 1st in 2007, Byrd surely will feel he can go close this week. 6th, 9th, 10th, 12th and 22nd in the last 6 events tells you that Byrd is in fine form. 6th in my bentgrass ranks for the last two years, 5th for my tournament rank here and 24th for the year in strokes gained putting, we can expect a big week from Byrd. I can not find a significant weakness here in terms of what I expect a contending golfer to display as Byrd is a strong wedge player, in the top 50 for birdies and scoring average adjusted. I like his chances this week, with my only niggle being that he might throw in a round close to par, which could be pivotal here. I would like 33s, but will take 28s, especially with the misgivings I have regarding Stricker and Zach at the head of the field
Regards
Dave (OneBet)