1.5pts EW Jonathan Byrd at 28/1 (Various)
1.25pts EW John Senden at 40/1 (Various)
John Deere Classic Outright Selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-outright.html
John Deere Classic Player Form Guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-player.html
Hi all
As usual, my course form analysis below.
My course analysis goes back to 2001 and I analyse in the following way:
- Tournament experience, with a maximum 8 points if a player has played 6 or more times
- Tournament history, with a maximum 10 points if a player has ever won the event, with further increments down to down to 2 points for any top 25.
- Tournament form in 2012, 2011 and 2010, with up to 4 points available for each year.
- Course experience points - As per tournament form, but for the specific course in use. In reality, this is not a factor here as TPC Deere Run has been the host for the duration of my analysis
As we are looking at course form in years gone by, not all in the field make the list due to 2012 being their debut year.
So, looking purely at course and history form, with a ranking system that aims to differentiate between players who do consistently well and those who don't (either one hit wonders or those consistent performers who do not really challenge), we get the following results, with further analysis below the table:
Steve Stricker - I am not sure there is much point in saying too much about Steve Stricker's tournament form for this event. Stricker has won the last 3 editions of this event of course. Leading the tour for proximity to the hole this year and having won his opening event of the season, Stricker seems well set to go well again here. In the last 3 years, Sticker has hit 10 of 12 rounds in the 60s, including 61 and 64 in 2009, 60 and 62 in 2010 and 64 and 63 in 2011. So, do we have our winner elect again in Stricker? The answer is maybe. The answer of whether he is value at 7s is also a difficult one to answer strongly in the positive. Whilst Stricker's stellar wedge game will always give him chances on this course, I question how well he is putting right now.
In regulation events last year, Stricker ranked 57th, 6th 23rd, 23rd, 25th and 7th for total putts in the events leading up to this one. This year, only twice has he been in the top 30 for putts since the opening week of the season. Stricker averaged 23.5 in total putts last year before this event. This year, he averages 47. Is he, therefore, hitting more greens and hence having less one putts? Not really. Average 39th GIR before last year's event versus 51st this year again tells us Stricker is a little off his game. Also, Stricker finished the year 3rd in adjusted scoring last year and sits 30th this year, despite the jump forward last week. A somewhat lengthy analysis of Stricker, but hopefully I have explained why I have to leave him this week. 10/1 = must back. 7/1 = I will take my chances.
Zach Johnson, loves playing here on what is a home game for him. After 7 tries with nothing better than 20th, Johnson has been 2nd, 21st and 3rd in the last 3 years. He has also shown great form this year, with a run of 2nd (Heritage), 69th (Wells Fargo), 2nd (the Players) and 1st (Crowne Plaza) the clear highlight. Since then, however, Johnson has lost his way a little. With a MC, 41st and 64th in the last 3 events. Last year's 3rd was the culmination of a 4 event progression from 32nd down to 3rd, so clearly he arrived in better shape. Johnson was 34th in driving accuracy and 5th in greens hit last year at the Travellers and went on to place here. This year, 48th accuracy and 62nd in greens suggest all is not so well this time around. I can avoid Johnson here.
Charles Howell III is a very solid player here, with 5th, 39th and 23rd in the last 3 years adding to a distant 22nd and 25th. So, does he have it in him to go better? I don't think so. Howell is having a pretty average year. Usually so consistent, Howell's 6 top 10s in 2010 and 2011 eclipse his solitary top 10 this year (2nd in Howell's first event at the Sony Open). With nothing better than 27th in the last 8 events and pretty abject driving accuracy, greens hit and putting stats, he is a very poor value option for me at 50/1 this week.
Matt Jones will surprise many...........including me. Jones has placed in 2 of the last 3 years and 175/1 odds requires a second glance. However, Jones' form is dire this season. Jones has missed the cut by a distance in each of the last 4 events. Despite great odds, I can not have him this week, especially as his 5th place finish was preceded by a decent spell of form.
John Senden ranks T5th in my rankings and I like his credentials here. Senden ranks well due to 12th last time here in 2010 adding to a win here in 2006. Senden's form line has a lot of similarities with the previous 2 years. In 2010, Senden in 10 events failed to break the top 30 before finishing 12th here. Last year, after an admittedly stronger first half of the year, Senden went on a run of 12 top 30 finishes in 13 events from the US Open to the end of the season. This year, Senden's form dipped a little in the weeks leading up to the US Open before finishing a fine 10th at Olympic. It feels distinctly possible that Senden performs well this week. 28th in approaches up to 100 yards to confirm his wedge play credentials, 12th in birdie or better, 5th in greens hit and 30th in driving accuracy, Senden looks very nicely set to contend this week and makes my team.
In 6 events here, Tim Petrovic has 5 top 30s, with the highlight a 5th in 2009. However, Petrovic is in a pretty dark place this year, with only a 16th at the Mayakoba a hint that he can make his tour card. The positive is a much improved 38th last time out at the Greenbrier, but, even at 200/1 this man is tough to back this week. Despite putting well and driving straight last week, I can not have him on side. Petrovic is not making enough birdies this year and is not dialled in from within 100 yards. Greens hit is not critical here as players fire more readily for the pins, but any man who is 21st in accuracy but 144th in greens in the preceding event can not be trusted. Expect Petrovic to make far too money bogeys to have a chance this week.
Finally, Jonathan Byrd. Suffering with his health a little in the last few events, Byrd continues to have a fine year on tour. And here, at the scene of a 2nd place finish in 2003 and 1st in 2007, Byrd surely will feel he can go close this week. 6th, 9th, 10th, 12th and 22nd in the last 6 events tells you that Byrd is in fine form. 6th in my bentgrass ranks for the last two years, 5th for my tournament rank here and 24th for the year in strokes gained putting, we can expect a big week from Byrd. I can not find a significant weakness here in terms of what I expect a contending golfer to display as Byrd is a strong wedge player, in the top 50 for birdies and scoring average adjusted. I like his chances this week, with my only niggle being that he might throw in a round close to par, which could be pivotal here. I would like 33s, but will take 28s, especially with the misgivings I have regarding Stricker and Zach at the head of the field
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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