1.25pt EW Ben Crane at 66/1 (Ladbrokes, SportingBet)
0.5pts EW Ken Duke at 66./1 (Various)
Already advised
1.5pts EW Jonathan Byrd at 28/1 (Various)
1.25pts EW John Senden at 40/1 (Various)
John Deere Classic Player Form Guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-player.html
John Deere Classic tournament form guide - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-john-deere-classic-tournament.html
Reason for selections
On the eve of the tournament and having already shared my selections with you for this week, I see little merit in writing chapter and verse on the reason for my selections.
However, I will share with you my top 20 rank for this event and provide the summary reasoning for my selections this week.
First, some comments on my logic for this event. As well as looking at recent form, I considered the following headline attributes (the numbers in brackets represent the weighting given to each attribute):
| Scoring_average_actual | 8 |
| Scrambling | 3 |
| Driving acc recent | 4 |
| GIR recent | 8 |
| Putts recent | 8 |
I also looked at some longer term stats and recent scoring average to try and catch players coming in to form. I also gave an attribute of 5 to tournament form here. But simplistically, they are my key indicators this week. I have seen a lot written about generous fairways and accuracy not being a factor around here, but I simply disagree. Consider the headline stats for last year's event. The number to the right represents the average position for the players in the top 9 last year (11 players as 3 were T9th)
Driving distance: 76
Driving accuracy: 42
Greens in regulation: 27
Putts per round: 24
Bombers can do well here, as Kyle Stanley showed last year. However, Stanley actually did well because he ranked 1st in accuracy last year, not because he was leading the field in distance off the tee (28th). Indeed, in addition to 2nd place Stanley leading the accuracy stats, McQuillan (6th) and Zach Johnson (2nd) also showed the benefit of controlling the tee ball. Stricker won it last year because he led the field in putts. Kyle Stanley, who saw Stricker hole a good putt and a great putt on the last two holes to edge, will testify to that fact. So, greens hit and good putting will yield rewards here. Also, in keeping bogeys off the card, there is a lessened but not insignificant importance in getting up and down here.
OK, to my ranks then. I highlighted my misgivings about the value of Stricker and Johnson at the head of the market, which opened up my 4 midfield bets as being real value in my mind. Last week, I placed an over-large EW bet on Summerhays. At 150/1, he ranked 3rd in my system analysis. I couldn't ignore that and the 1pt EW bet was rewarded. I also added DeLaet at 200/1 and he gave us a great run as well, finishing 12th. The logic was sound, as all 5 placers were triple figure odds. This week, my results suggest the leaderboard will be littered with the better players in the field. Stricker and Zach Johnson surely have a great chance of being in the top 10 and I believe the 4 above also should give us a good run this week. My top 25 ranks are as follows:
If my rank is at least 3 higher than the bookies' rank, you will see "Yes" in the right-hand value column. You can see that the top 4 in my ranks are marginal value at best. I gave reasons why I could leave both Stricker and Johnson in my tournament preview. Ryan Palmer is in great form, but I am not sure he will score well enough to fit the brief this week. I am nervous about this statement, because he has done so before, but 25s is just too tight this week for me.
I gave my reasons for Byrd and Senden in the tournament preview. Here again are my comments.
John Senden ranks T5th in my rankings and I like his credentials here. Senden ranks well due to 12th last time here in 2010 adding to a win here in 2006. Senden's form line has a lot of similarities with the previous 2 years. In 2010, Senden in 10 events failed to break the top 30 before finishing 12th here. Last year, after an admittedly stronger first half of the year, Senden went on a run of 12 top 30 finishes in 13 events from the US Open to the end of the season. This year, Senden's form dipped a little in the weeks leading up to the US Open before finishing a fine 10th at Olympic. It feels distinctly possible that Senden performs well this week. 28th in approaches up to 100 yards to confirm his wedge play credentials, 12th in birdie or better, 5th in greens hit and 30th in driving accuracy, Senden looks very nicely set to contend this week and makes my team.
Jonathan Byrd. Suffering with his health a little in the last few events, Byrd continues to have a fine year on tour. And here, at the scene of a 2nd place finish in 2003 and 1st in 2007, Byrd surely will feel he can go close this week. 6th, 9th, 10th, 12th and 22nd in the last 6 events tells you that Byrd is in fine form. 6th in my bentgrass ranks for the last two years, 5th for my tournament rank here and 24th for the year in strokes gained putting, we can expect a big week from Byrd. I can not find a significant weakness here in terms of what I expect a contending golfer to display as Byrd is a strong wedge player, in the top 50 for birdies and scoring average adjusted. I like his chances this week, with my only niggle being that he might throw in a round close to par, which could be pivotal here. I would like 33s, but will take 28s, especially with the misgivings I have regarding Stricker and Zach at the head of the field
Ben Crane ranks 6th despite a nothing record in this event (MC 2008, 32nd 2004, MC 2003), but I think he has a strong game to prosper here. A good putter ranker 14th in the all-rounds this year, Ben Crane has very strong recent stats of 14th in driving accuracy, 21st in GIR and 37th putting on tour. A good scrambler and 8th in birdie or better average, he surely finally has a strong week here this week. It is unusual for me to put more than 1pt EW on a 66/1 shot, but I want the value to be maximised here. In my mind, this guy is a 40/1 shot this week.
I have changed my mind on Duke. I said in my preview that he was maybe a good back to lay option or a good 1st round leader bet. However, he doesn't have an early tee time, so I would be surprised to see him right there early. My system has him 7th versus the layers' 22nd, but I need to affirm that by looking more closely at his game. Duke's recent putting stats are strong and he sits 16th on tour for strokes gained putting. A straight drive who hits more than his fair share of greens, Duke is also a good scrambler and sits 34th for birdies. I also like the fact that Stricker 3 times and Perry before him were in their 40s when winning here. Hopefully Duke enjoys the relatively easy challenge here and gets on a roll. Do not be surprised to see a hot round from Duke which propels him right in to contention this week.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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