Outright selections
1.5pts EW Jason Dufner at 50/1 (Various, but take 50s with BetVictor)
1pt EW BenCurtis at 100/1 (Various, but take 6 places with BetVictor)
0.5pts EW John Huh at 300/1 (Various, but take 6 places)
0.5pts EW Marcus Fraser at 250/1 (Various, but take 6 places with BetVictor)
already advised
1pt EW Raphael Jacquelin at 150/1 (Paddy Power, 7 places)
2pts EW Lee Westwood at 16/1 (Various, but take Paddy Power's 7 places)
2pts win Retief Goosen at 180 (Betfair only, with a view to trade)
Specials bet
1.5pts EW Retief Goosen top South African at 10/1 (BlueSq)
British Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-tournament-form.html
British Open Player form guide (table only) http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-form-guide-table.html
British Open special bets http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/golf-tips-british-open-special-bets.html
Tournament preview
Like no other event, I have really struggled to settle upon my selections this week. The Open Championship is truly the most bewildering event in which to settle on a group of golfers with confidence for 2 headline reasons. First, links golf at its toughest can disarm the greatest and most able golfer. Second, the case for so many can be written that whittling potential challengers down to a select few is so tough.
With the winners in the last 10 years including the likes of Clarke, Ben Curtis (then, very much unfancied), Todd Hamilton, Louis Oosthuizen (400/1 back then) and Stewart Cink, we can clearly see that the Open can throw up a huge range of potential winners in addition to the obvious candidates at the head of the market. With Tiger and Lee Westwood the only players below 20/1 in the betting, there genuinely is an Open feel to this week's event. Add in a string of first time winners in recent majors and an ongoing jostle for the number 1 spot and it is hard to be definitive about this most open of majors.
However, while uncertainty reigns at the top of world golf, so opportunities exist elsewhere to prosper.
Lytham is a great test of a golfer's ability and has thrown up a number of winners who are in the hall of frame bracket over the years. A par 70 for the first time (par 71 previously) and measuring longer by almost 200 yards since the Open was last here in 2001, Lytham has been toughened slightly this time around in terms of the length of the course. However, it appears without question that this golf course will bare its teeth more this time. The reason for this is a combination of weather and the hazards on the course. England has endured a particularly wet Summer, which has meant that links courses up and down the country are greener than usual and the rough made lusher. Lytham's rough was tough enough without this added complication and the premium on driving well is heightened as a result. Immediately following a pratice round, Tiger Woods described the thickest parts of the rough as "almost unplayable" and Darren Clarke was unequivocal in his assertion that driving accuracy over distance was the key to going well here.
The forecast for the week is also indifferent, but at time of writing, there is no clear indication that early/late starters will be significantly better or worse off than late/early starters. Given this, I am just picking golfers I fancy to win.
The photofit for this week's winner first neglects the specific course used for this year's open. Links golf is a test of patience and mental strength, and fortitude when things do not go well. It is a also a test of imagination and shot-making ability, allied to an ability to maintain form and confidence in a swing that will be challenged by varying breeze. Above all, course management is king.
Lytham specifically demands good ball strikers who can keep the ball in play particularly from the tee. Around the green, it is necessary to scramble well, unless you can outplay the field by hitting more greens in regulation. The greens are a little slower here, which may equalise the field somewhat in putting. However, nerve will be required in converting the likely many testing putts from 3-8 feet that a golfer will have this week. Also of note is the fact that David Duval won on a much duskier Lytham in 2001 with a score of -10, having played the 3 pars 5s in -10 for the week. The 6th hole is a par 4 now, but again, a player will want to maximise on the par 5s and the 6th hole this week if they want to score positively.
I have already mentioned the penal rough. In addition to this, 206 strategically placed and by and large nightmarish to escape bunkers await careless or errant golfers this week. Keeping the ball on the short stuff will be utterly critical.
My selections
I have already discussed the merits of Goosen, Westwood and Jacquelin in earlier previews, but I will emphasise the key points here.
As I said in my preview of a couple of weeks ago I was keen to get Jacquelin onside before his price contracted and after a good finish at the Open De France and a further good display in Scotland last week, Jacquelin has indeed shortened in the betting. Ladbrokes are still holding out at 150s, but the 7 places at 150s advised has now long gone. Jacquelin lay 107th after round 1 of the Open Championship last year, but then proceeded to play some tremendous golf in difficult conditions to finish 8th. In rounds 2-4, Jacquelin produced the 1st, 5th and 3rd best rounds of the day to charge up the leaderboard. Recent form coming in this year is strong too. In the last 6 events, Jacquelin has been 18th, 21st (US Open), 3rd and 16th to confirm he is playing well more often than not right now. Jacquelin also played Lytham in 2001, finishing a highly encouraging 13th. Jacquelin is a player in form, with links history, Lytham history and an affinity for playing tough courses well. My nagging doubt re Jacquelin is his accuracy off the tee. He has improved of late, but must drive the ball really solidly if he wants to really get in the mix this week. An excellent scrambler, which means he can often make par, but he will need to sharpen up off the tee to truly contend. At 150/1, I think there is plenty enough value to find out.
As soon as you place a higher premium on total driving, hitting greens and generally displaying great ball striking prowess, thoughts immediately turn to Lee Westwood. So often the nearly man in majors, I suspect some people will question the wisdom of this choice. Question is, who do you trust more to get in the mix? Put simply, Westwood is the ONLY consistent performer in majors in the last 3 years. Sure, some such as Mahan have done better than most and Dufner stands up well in the last 3 major events, but Westwood, with 8 tops 10s in 11 major starts, 6 of which were top 3s, is the go to man for me this week. At 16/1, I am getting 3/1 the place and this on a man who has been profitable at evens to place over the last 11 majors. Westwood has actually never placed in a major held in England, which is a strange anomaly, but I do not think there is a specific factor which makes that so. I also like the theoretical grace he gets here from slower putting surfaces, which hopefully will allow him to roll his putts as well as the majority of the field. Although some doubts exist from his slip last time out, which cause his horrific start to round 3 in France, I do not think he would have entertained playing round 4 had he been anything but comfortable. We are with Westwood here for the second straight major. Odds are, we get a place and hopefully better.
I will skip to Jason Dufner next, because I want to continue a theme mentioned with Westwood above. Dufner is not the greatest putter on tour, but I do not think it will be as costly as other events such as the Masters. For some time now, Dufners ball striking stats have been nothing short of sensational. Also, as mentioned above, Dufner is now demonstrating that he is ready to contend for Majors having all but won the PGA last year, led the Masters at halfway and then finished a fine 4th at the US Open. Dufner has nothing here in terms of demonstrable British Open form, but he is a different beast now and I would not be surprised to see him right there come Sunday evening. Dufner is 3rd in my recent GIR stats on the PGA tour and sits 23rd for driving accuracy, whilst still 40th for driving distance. Add also that Dufner is a brilliant scrambler, is top 5 for bogey avoidance on tour and has two first places, a 2nd and 4th in the last 5 events and we have an outstanding player at 50/1. Dufner is lightly raced, having not teed it up since the US Open. Whether this is good or bad remains to be seen, but 50/1 could look like the price of the year in a few days time.
I explained my summary logic for Retief Goosen in the tounrament form guide (link above). Retief Goosen is a model of consistency in this event and I believe 110/1 and 7 places from Paddy Power will attract a steady stream of bets as punters do their homework...........or read this. Goosen missed lat year, but in 10 straight years prior, Goosen averaged a 12th placed finish, which is stunning consistency around a variety of links courses. This is Goosen's run in those 10 years, Lytham 2001 first: 13th, 8th, 10th, 7th, 5th, 14th, 23rd, 32nd, 5th, 6th. Make no mistake, Goosen is actually likely to keep punters interested come the final day. Goosen has shot nothing worse than 76 in his last 40 rounds, which is tremendous consistency. Although weather may be a factor, I am going to play that Goosen's consistency gives us a run this week. There is currently strong liquidity for Goosen at 180 on Betfair and that is the advised play for me here. I think there is every chance that Goosen is hovering somewhere within 5 shots of the summit come the weekend, which could yield a strong opportunity to trade. Goosen has a 5th, 10th and 23rd in his last 5 starts too, to show that his recent form stands up pretty well (his other two events were MCs). The 5th was in the Volvo Matchplay in Spain (where he over-performed versus expectation). His 10th was at the super-tough US Open and his 23rd at the tough Open De France. Goosen then has served warning that he is ready to again contend where the brief is for players that can grind and plot their way around the course. I will put some specials up later in the week, but the 10/1 with 3 places for top South African by BlueSq is one of the best bets I have seen in a long time. Sure, there are some great South Africans out there, but if Goosen does what he does every time he tees it up in this event, he is almost certain to at least place.
Some longer shots to finish. Ben Curtis is very attractive at 100/1. A winner this year, and 1st in 2003 and 7th and 8th in 2007/8 at the British Open makes the headline chances of Curtis strong here. Curtis is having a bit of a renaissance on tour this year, having done little since last winning in 2006. His fine finishes in the British Open in 2007 and 2008 show that he can perform here however strong his general game is on tour. The 2008 winning score was +3, showing that if it does get really tough this week, he can hang around. In 2003, Curtis won with a score of -1, which may look very handy after 72 holes around this course if repeated this year. Curtis' form dipped a little after winning earlier this year, but there are signs that his form is coming back. Curtis' driving accuracy and GIr stats are well in the top 10 on tour this year. In my recent ranks, Curtis has demonstrated that he is maintaining that sort of ball striking ability, sitting 24th in driving accuracy and 27th in GIR. His recent putting has been fairly average and it is that in the main which has slower his progress. However, like Westwood and Dufner, I think that is a lessened factor here. Curtis is a great option at a triple figure price.
We highlighted earlier some of the big priced winners in the last 10 years, Curtis included. In addition to Jacquelin and Curtis who are both triple figure odds, I am going to players at really big prices. John Huh is 300/1 here, but has had a real strong debut year on tour to date. Where I like his chances here is that he is one of the most accurate players on tour. For driving accuracy and GIR, Huh is 24th and 25th respectively on the PGA tour in my recent ranks and sits inside the top 10 on tour for the season is driving accuracy. Generally a very good putter, Huh may struggle if he starts missing greens. However, it would not surprise me at all if he were to get hot early and hang around near the top of the leaderboard. At 300/1, Huh is a great price.
Marcus Fraser is in great shape on the European tour this season. In tough conditions 3 starts ago, Fraser was edged in a play-off for the title. This was the 4th top 6 of the season for Fraser, who currently sits inside the top 20 in the Race to Dubai standings. Fraser is a very good and accurate driver of the golf ball, but also a fantastic scrambler and putter. I can see him churning his way around this course and grinding out pars hole after hole, in which much the same way Thomas Bjorn did last year when placing 4th. I really think he could feature in this event and 250/1 for one the most consistent players on the European tour this year holds great appeal.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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