Outright selections
2pt win Lee Westwood at 13/1 (Paddy Power) Loss 2pts
2pts EW Matt Kuchar at 33/1 (Vairous, 6 places) Loss 4pts
1.5pts EW Jim Furyk at 45/1 (Betfred, Totesport) Result T4th Profit 9.125pts
1pt EW Graeme McDowell at 80/1 (Various, but take 6 places) Result 2nd Profit 19 points
1pt Ew Aaron Baddeley at 125/1 (Various, take 6 places) Loss 3pts
0.5pts EW Brian Harman at 1000/1 (Various, but take 6 places) Loss 1pt
1.25pts EW Ian Poulter at 80/1 (William Hill) Loss 2.5pts
Total profit - 15.625pts
Not taking part and replaced by Ian Poulter above
0.3pts EW Paul Casey at 250/1
1pt EW Sean O'Hair
US Open player from guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-2012-us-open-player-form.html
US Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-tournament-form-guide.html
Course guide
For the 5th time, Olympic Club hosts the US Open. Traditionally the toughest of the 4 majors, Rory McIlroy's gallop to victory and -16 will surely not be repeated this year. Similar to the Masters, this tournament is filled with subplots and the peaking players at the very top of the game.
First to the course. A Par 70 at little over 7000 yards this course is theoretically not long. However, much will depend on the approach a player takes as to the extent that is correct. Recent editions of the US Open have allowed big hitters to thrive, with the oft touted pre-requisite of accuracy off the tee not really being born out. However, this week appears a little different, which brings me back to my original point. Tight, tree-lined and with potential for coastal breeze to constantly affect ball flight off the tee, players may elect to play 3 wood or even lower on some holes to try and assure they remain in play for the next shot. Do that however, and this course will then play very long in places. In addition, there is a genuine requirement for players to shape the ball both ways off the tee.
The first 6 holes are brutal and will severely test the mental aspect of a player's game from the very start. Length wise, players will feel respite after that point.....that is, until the small matter of the 670 yard 16th. Lee Janzen won the event by 4 shots here in 1998 (averaging 70 shots per round), the last time this event was played here and was the only player to play four rounds in the 60s 5 years prior (thanks for that stat twitter). However, this course has changed fairly significantly then. In '98, there was a great controversy surrounding the 18th green and the fact that it literally would not hold the ball for certain shots. That has been fixed, diseased trees have been removed and several tee areas have been move, altering the dynamic of the tee shot for the golfer. Another highly significant change is the move from from Poa Annua to Bentgrass greens in 2007. This in some ways gives the event a more Open feel - Bentgrass greens does tend to give East coasters a better (more even) chance than Poa did.
Given all of this, what type of player are we looking for here? Bogey avoidance is perhaps obviously key. I refer to the point I made in the tournament guide "The US Open is set up to be a brutal test for players, so those prominent in the above form guide know how to keep their focus an be patient during the inevitable spells when scoring gets tough. Perspective is critical here. The first 6 holes are a real test and it is conceivable that anything less than a fine ball-striking start could see a player fall to +2 or worse. Those experienced above in US Opens before know well that +2 come the close of Sunday is top 20 and maybe much higher. The ability to play each hole on its merits and with full focus will take a player a long way this week". Westwood (10th), Kuchar (2nd), Furyk (1st), McDowell (55th), Baddeley (108th), Harman (93rd) and Poulter (85th last year, no formal stats this as of yet) are a mixed bag in this stat on tour.
Total driving is important as a player ideally can be both long and straight. Of the two, players that can find the fairway are arguably more important than those who can hit it long this week. I believe his to be an open Open, as it were and both type of golfer will feature come Sunday I expect. Allied to this is the ability to find the putting surface. Greens are on the small side, so instances of long, treacherous putts across tiered greens will be lessened here. With bent greens possibly reaching 13.5 on the stimp, players will want to find greens as often as possible to avoid treacherous chips. Over the back on 18 remains a bad plan......
The other type of player is the guy who misses a few greens, chips like a dream and putts wonderfully from 5-10ft. All with have a few of those, but I do not really want to trust that anybody does that to win more than most. Putting on such greens is important, but I think this type of test is more about making the 2 putt par your default setting and allowing the occasional putt to drop. I do not need the best putter this week, although anybody who can guarantee me Westwood tops that stat, I will take 7/1.
The selections
Before I explain my reasoning, a quick comment on the leading contenders in general.
World no.1 Luke Donald enters this event on the back of a win in the prestigious BMW PGA and a fast finishing 12th last time out. A brilliant scrambler and putter, Donald has a chance here. If you pick the course up and dump it in Florida, I am backing Donald at those odds. I feel I can actually leave Donald quite easily here. First, Donald's driving distance, accuracy, greens hit and even putting is less compelling this year versus last as a generalisation. Although long enough for this course, I think he will suffer too greatly in GIR to be able to win.
Rory defends here of course and had he found a birdie instead of water on the 72nd hole last week, he would have taken Dustin Johnson to a play-off. However, Rory missed so many fairways last week and a repeat of that here will really hurt him. I do not believe Rory wins.
Tiger has won 3 times now since his return (yes, I do include the Chevron). Each time he has returned a scene of several past triumphs to prosper again. A much younger Tiger played here in 98, finishing T18th and failing to better 71 over 4 days. I simply can not trust that he wins here for a whole host of reasons, not least that he is a difficult man to trust on tight tracks. Like Rory (and despite tour stats to the contrary), I am not convinced Tiger is straight enough to win this week.
On to Lee Westwood. That I have gone win only on Westwood could be interpreted as lunacy. Arguably the most consistent finish in Major Championship golf with 6 top 3 finishes in 10 majors, Westwood fits the bill beautifully here. Players do not win the US Open after winning the week prior (and, Ogilvy aside, players in the last 10 years do not win having played the week prior, never mind won) so we do have a fair bit of history to overcome here. If opposing Westwood, this would be a compelling reason. As I am on side, I will pick at the stat. Firstly, Westwood's win last Saturday was on a Wed-Sat schedule; the extra day is a significant difference. Second, Westwood won at an absolute canter and had noting like the sort of mental exertion that the likes of Dustin Johnson and Rory faced late (not so late as the event finished earlier than other regular events) in to Sunday. I have already said that I want great all-round drivers (Westwood), players who can consistently find the green (Westwood), tend to keep bogeys off the card (Westwood) and not necessarily the best putter on the planet (Westwood). Westwood can handle the brief this week and the two top 3 finishes in the 3 years at the Masters demonstrates that fast bent is not necessarily the feature that costs him a serious challenge for the title here. I could have gone 2EW here, but actually believe that a dialled in Westwood this week can leave this field in his wake. Let's be non-English and get bold. Win only.
Matt Kuchar is not a player that I usually look to. However, I simply can not ignore his credentials here. T15th as a rookie in 1998 here, Kuchar really should be close come Sunday. Whichever way you evaluate Kuchar's finishes, Mr Consistency is impressive. 11 events, nothing worse than 44th, with 9 top 26s this year, Kuchar has won the Players and finished T3 in the Masters. If we extend back in to last year, Kuchar has in 20 tournaments been in the top 26 17 times! That is truly sensational consistency. The win at the Players offers encouragement here as the tight course offers some similarity to this in terms of the challenge from tee to green Kuchar was exceptional in closing out at Sawgrass and I see him winning here. His 3rd at the Masters shows also that fast bent is fine for him. Kuchar has been top 10 in greens in 3 of the last 5 events and top 10 in putts in each of the last 2 events. Hard - too hard - to omit this week.
Jim Furyk finished 2nd here in 1998 so can play the course in its old guise. I am happy to wager he can play the newly modified course too. When I think of a photofit for tough challenges, I think of Furyk, A great record in British Opens and a previous US Open winner, Furyk is exactly the competitor to have on your team this week. Top 22 in riving accuracy in 8 of his last 9 events and 3rd last time out, Furyk will be firing in to greens from the fairway more than most. Also, first in greens at the Crowne Plaza demonstrates where his iron game is. I always think that in tough events, consistent players can prosper as they just need to stay consistent to turn a decent finish in to a place position and potentially even a win. Furyk is like Kuchar in that respect, both as they are impeccable golfers who so often finish well. With 8 straight top 26 finishes including a play-off loss at the Transitions, this feels like the sort of event Furyk could return big in. The 2010 Tour Championship winner can really give us a run this week, by doing nothing more than keeping on keeping on.
Graeme McDowell won of course in 2010. His winning score was even par and the brief will be similar here. It is fair to say that McDowell has failed to really hit the heights since. However, there are signs he is coming back. Although great friends, I am sure GMac would love to take the title back from Rory this week. McDowell has actually MC in his last 2 events, and the Players and BMW PGA are events you want players demonstrating form in to feel entirely happy. On the flip side, this means McDowells is 80s and not 40s, so not all bad. Last year, Mcdowell finished 14th, ruined only by a poor 2nd round. McDowell's record around the event was abject: 42nd, 100th, 59th, 61st, 113th, 33rd, 128th, 14th (US Open result), 87th, 65th, 127th, 43rd, 37th. 13 straight events with only the US Open a positive. I often like to find players who have displayed this sort of profile in the previous year and enter this year in better shape - my spread bet on Allenby last week was on a similar premise. McDowell missed the cut at the players due largely to his putting. His game tee to green is actually very encouraging. In the last 4 events, McDowell's driving accuracy reads 1st, 1st, 4th, 1st. Wow. 28th in greens last time out and back with real incentive this week, I believe McDowell can again contend.
Aaron Baddeley has a great recent record at Riviera and I like the link here as it is arguably the most representable challenge to this week on tour. In his last 5 starts in California, Baddeley has finished 6th, 1st, 27th, 4th and 11th. Baddeley started this season well but fell away between the Shell Houston (week 13) and the Crowne Plaza (Week 21) with nothing better than 40th However, at the Memorial last time out, Baddeley started well and finished a solid 9th. 25th and 26th for putts in the last two events on Bent greens, Baddeley will cope better than most on these greens. The hint at a return to form at a huge 125/1 makes this a highly appealing price.
So, my first ever advised 1000/1 tip. Definitely fishing here huh? William Hill's pointless pricing on outsiders aside (in which all players are lower than other bookies in price), Harman is 400s with several other layers. the main reason I have taken a punt on this crazy outsider is his performance in the 2004 US Junior champs here. Harman shot 66-67 to finish as the only player under par and a winner by 8 strokes. Of course, the course has changed, but clearly the basic attributes fitted his eye well last year in the same way that it did Furyk in 1998. Harman's form has been fairly poor after a good start to the season, but last time out his driving was much improved (10th accuracy, 28th distance). Amidst an average Players Championship display, Harman did shoot the 5th best round in round 2. A real long range punt this one, but a good start could see him cause a massive shock and challenge for a place.
Finally, my super-sub Ian Poulter. I said all I really wanted and needed to in my player guide posted earlier today "On the tight, tree-lined Wentworth track, Poulter finished 10th a couple of weeks ago, improving upon his best effort around the track. I want somebody who can putt on hard fast bentgrass surfaces this week and the man who has been 10th, 27th and 3rd in the last 3 Masters will do for me. However, he makes this list for his recent form. Coming in to the vent, in a stretch that includes top notch events such as the Masters, the Players and BMW PGA Championship Poulter has the following 6 event stretch : 3rd, 7th, 29th, 15th, 25th, 10th. Pretty compelling form. The 29th was on an absolute beast of course in China and the Ballantines after was on slow putting surfaces - hardly Poulter's forté. 3rd, 7th and 21st in accuracy off the tee in his last 3 events and 13th in greens at the Players, I really expect Poulter to be grinding it near the top of the leaderboard this week."
There are obvious others to consider such as Phil (I am worried about Phil), Rose, Dufner, Molinari and Petterson, but I am very happy with my team
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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