1.25pts EW Ian Poulter at 80/1 (William Hill)
US Open Outright selections http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-outright-selections.html
US Open tournament form guide http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/golf-tips-us-open-tournament-form-guide.html
Very much like the Masters, we enter this week's 2nd major of the year with the world's finest players in ominous form. World number 1 Luke Donald won the prestigious BMW PGA at Wentworth and followed up with a solid 12th place last time out. Rory McIlroy righted the ship and needed a birdie at the last to force a play-off with Dustin Johnson (McIlroy actually found the water and made double). Lee Westwood won at a canter in Sweden and Tiger won last time out also, with a storming final round.
So given this, just who are form players entering the event? My usual 3 tournament form guide is below, summarising the top 60 or so players, with supporting comments below regarding those who are much bigger odds than their form at least suggests they should be.
Jonathan Byrd - Byrd has a pretty abject record at the US Open, although the varied courses perhaps lessen the significance of that statement. Byrd's most recent memory of California is a positive one, with 8th on the Bentgrass (same as here at Olympic) of Riviera in the Northern Trust Open earlier this season. Byrd's good run really stretches to 5 events now, with 27th, 9th, 12th, 10th and 6th last time out. 4 of the last 5 events plus a 5th at Riviera have all been on Bentgrass, suggesting he will handle the greens OK. Byrd's driving and greens hit stats in recent events are useful. I fancy Byrd to go fairly well this week and the 100/1 available holds some appeal.
Peter Lawrie and Branden Grace are players who rank well due to their exploits in Europe. Despite strong recent from both, it is quite a leap of faith that they deliver strongly here. With Grace at 200s and Lawrie at 300s, it seems the layers dismiss their chances also. Despite the fact that Grace is a 3 times winner (including a 60/1 winner in the china open for us earlier this year) I actually prefer the credentials of Lawrie of the two. 11th in driving accuracy (Grace 75th) and 37th in greens hit (34th for Grace) is a decent skill set for this event. However, I would be very surprised if either scramble an putt well enough to compete with the very best here.
World number 1 as recently as last year, Martin Kaymer is 66/1 here despite lying 5th in the form guide. 8th in the US Open of 2010 and with most recent results of 7th, 15th and 15th, there are signs that KAymer is ready to win again. However, with the desire to be able to shape the ball both ways off the tee, I do not see it is this week he really contends. Kaymer is a class act when on song, but I genuinely believe that even at 60/1, he has too much to find here. Expect me to be looking hard at him for upcoming events however.
Bo Van Pelt has been really strong of late on tour. Van Pelt finished 14th at last year's US Open. His recent form is consistently good - The Heritage aside, Van Pelt has had top 19 finishes in his last 8 events. Pretty compelling form. Van Pelt is a solid golfer that you can rely on to generally play pretty well over 4 days. However, 8 successive top 19 have brought ZERO place finishes. This test is as tough as he will have had it this year and I think he falls short again. 66s is not without attraction, but I do not trust him enough here. Van Pelt can play in California, with 8th at Riviera this year and 2nd at the Frys in 2010. Look for Riviera as your barometer here though as this week will be tough and the putting test at Riviera is closer to this week's challenge. Good, but not a winner for me.
I took my list of golfers on Sunday for this analysis, which means some who are not taking part are included here as they were possible entrants at the time. A shame, because John Huh on recent form and key attributes was very interesting here at 200/1.
Ian Poulter I very much like on this track. With the withrawal of Casey and the never entering Sean O'Hair no longer part of my plans, I am going to add Poulter to my team. On the tight, tree-lined Wentworth, Poulter finished 10th a couple of weeks ago, improving upon his best effort around the track. I want somebody who can putt on hard fast bentgrass surfaces this week and the man who has been 10th, 27th and 3rd in the last 3 Masters will do for me. However, he makes this list for his recent form. Coming in to the vent, in a stretch that inclues top notch events such as the Masters, the Players and BMW PGA Championship Poulter has the following 6 event stretch : 3rd, 7th, 29th, 15th, 25th, 10th. Pretty compelling form. The 29th was on an absolute beast of course in China and the Ballantines after was on slow putting surfaces - hardly Poulter's forté. 3rd, 7th and 21st in accuracy off the tee in his last 3 events and 13th in greens at the Players, I really expect Poulter to be grinding it near the top of the leaderboard this week.
Vijay Singh fell away badly in round 4 of the Memorial to finish 16th last time out. However, 9th, 47th and 16th in the last 3 events is at least suggestive that Singh is finding a groove again. My big worry is that in all 3 events, Singh has faltered badly on day 4. Always a risk with his back problems, I suspect fatigue may play a part in the day 4 problems. Singh was 25th back in 1998 at this course when his threat much more obvious. I am tempted to get involved on Betfair or Spreadex with a view trading out after three days, but will not advise anything formally here.
Roberto Castro was 1000 on Betfair until yesterday and almost got some of my money. His last 3 events, all on Bent greens, have yielded 32nd, 29th and 19th place finishes. Not bad. Last time out (Crowne Plaza), he would have challenged for the win were it not for a really poor second round. Rounds 1, 3 and 4 were very strong. Where Castro appeals is that he was 4th in accuracy and 13th in greens in that event. Far from short off the tee, Castro could surprise this week and produce a decent finish. I do not rate his chances of a top 20 particularly highly, but can see the potential were he to do so.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
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