Hi all,
2pts EW Robert Allenby at 14/1 (various : 3 places 1/4 odds).
Time constraints over the weekend have stopped me from posting any midpoint considerations. This is a real frustration as the midpoint selections have been showing up well of late with the likes of Jason Dufner (9/2 winner and Dicky Pride at 50/1, placed) yielding rewards last time out.
However, I have had a long look at the final round and believe the above price does stand out as value.
Firstly, it looks as though our outright selections are dead in the water, barring a course record from Hearn or Estes. Since 2001, no player has ever placed from as low as 39th in this event, which is where both Hearn and Estes are placed after round 3. David Howser's charge from 37th to 5th in 2002 is my only hope, with all other placed finishers having been in the top 25 before the start of round 4.
I tipped Allenby up on spreadex and he is threatening to do too well. Allenby was added due to his great consistency, with 6 out of 7 finishes here being in the top 17. Spreadex had his predicted position at 46, which, allied to signs of improving game, made this a worthy bet. Allenby is currently in 5th, which is worth around 8 points profit at the advised 0.2pt stake.
A quick word on the likely winner in this event. From 2001, players have been in the following position after round 3, before going on to win : 1st, 9th, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 6th, 4th, 7th, 1st, 3rd, 2nd. Only 4 times has the leader actually gone on to win in 11 years. We have 3 leaders here of course. Nick O'Hern closed with 68 in 2009 and 66 in 2011. 66 probably wins. However, both scores delivered only midfield finishes. The pressure will be entirely different today. O'Hearn has not challenge for a win on the final day for some time. It will be tough for him.
Davis Love III is interesting, as he certainly fits the bill for being over 30 (all winners wince 2001 have been over 30). In 2005, he finished 4th having entered the final round 4th. His final round ranks have been OK if unspectacular in the last couple of years and he has ranked 8th, 37th and 20th for round 4 in the three times he has got that far year to date. He might not be far away at the end.
John Merrick has been 7 out of 7 this year for what I would midfield final rounds. Not terrible, but not great either. The last time Merrick truly contended going in to the final round? Here, last year. Merrick ranked 55th that day, shot 72 and fell from 3rd to 11th. In 3 attempts here, he has never broken 70 in round 4. However, 3rd after 3 rounds last and 1st after 3 this shows he has played the course generally very well. 11/1 is not entirely without appeal.
6 players sit a shot further back and I will talk you through each of those from my perspective.
Dustin Johnson is back and clearly fit again. This is quite some debut for Johnson here and he is a class act. Perhaps understandably, Johnson decelerated over the weekend on his return at the Memorial. I do see enough instances of Johnson getting hot in round 3 only to then meander a little in round 4. He did this last year in the Deutsche, the Open (famously), the US Open, the Byron, and the WGC Cadillac. That he can win is unquestioned, but I have just enough doubts at 11/2.
Robert Allenby actually has a tremendous round 4 record here and 3 places at 14/1 holds appeal. In 6 made cuts, Allenby has shot 66, 66, 70, 65, 69 and 67 on the final day. As I already mentioned, all of those finishes are top 17 finishes too. With the 65 in 2009 vaulting him in to a play-ff, which he lost to Justin Leonard. He was 23rd after round 3, so can clearly get hot and contend here. Allenby has not won on tour for years and many will remember his final hole collapse to fall back in to a marathon play-off to John Huh at Mayakoba, which he ultimately lost. However, it is easy to forget that his round was sensational before that. Allenby has a history of dialling in in round 3 and following it up with another good round 4. the following figures show Allenby's round 3 ranks where he has been inside the top 15 scorers and in contention, with his round 4 rank in brackets in the last two years : 11 (4), 2 (6), 11 (12), 8, (9), 15 (3). Only 5 samples to go from, but it does seem that the choker tag is perhaps a little undeserved. I am going to play him outright.
I have no evidence at all that Kisner stays in the place positions In fact, I have a lot confidence he doesn't. Kisner is generally dire in round 4 and fell away from good finishes in the Children's Miracle, McGladrey and PGA qualifying events at the end of last year, when in decent general form. I only wish I could see an 18 hole matchbet to oppose him with. Dustin Johnson and Robert Allenby are paired in his 3 ball and I am hesitant about calling the winner in that duel. However, with Dustin 13/10 and Allenby 9/5, I would not deter anybody from dutching the 2.
Chad Campbell finally did something here last year, placing 32nd with a final round 69. Campbell is playing well this week, but it is a real leap of faith that he jumps from the pack to prevail. His Open Championship 5th place featured an excellent final round but I can not entertain 16/1, which is only 2 points higher than the clearly better Allenby in terms of form and experience.
Kevin Stadler is a fine ballstriker and if that holds up for another round, he has claims here. Stadler has 9 top 26 finishes this year and is playing consistently well. In 5 of those 9 events, he has been in the top 11 for final day scoring. Those who have highligted 2 faltering weekends when in 2nd place at halfway are premature with Stadler. With final rounds of 67 and 69 here previously, the 18/1 with Sporting bet holds some appeal, but at only 3 places, I am just put off.
Finally Rory. His price is no better than 11/4. I don't even need to check stats to know I am not playing those odds for a frequent challenger who infrequently wins. Mcilroy's week so far is similar to his 2010 appearance where he went gently backwards over the weekend, falling from 10th to 29th. With so many top 10 finishes, he has a great chance if he plays anything like his best game, but I will sit this one out.
Regards
Dave (OneBet)
No comments:
Post a Comment