Masters specials bets - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/us-masters-specials.html
US Masters past form - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/us-masters-betting-course-form-guide.html
Players carrying recent good form in to an event offer a simple and often effective metric when considering who to back. In the form guide for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I showed Tiger and Bubba to have the joint best 3 tournament average coming in to the event and they duly finished 1st and 4th. Last week, Keegan Bradley was in the best form and placed T4.
The Masters ranked 15th on tour for difficulty and players at one with their game are an attractive proposition this week. However, this is far from definitve; the course guide above is also key as Augusta often rewards favourite sons who show a repeated ability to perform well around the track.
I have put the usual table below, with players sorted by form in recent regular tour strokeplay events. The right-hand column is a quick visual with those in green much higher in the odds than their recent form suggests.
Bo Van Pelt. A dangerous outsider without question. Arrived here ostensibly off form last year, yet still placed 8th. 5th in form ranks and in sound form in approach play and putting, Van Pelt has claims here.............as long as he is fully fit.
I previewed Stenson here last week and he finished a solid 21st, further adding strength to the belief that he is finally finding some game again. Stenson has two 17th place finishes here from 6 attempts and is not the player he was, despite the recent improvement. One to swerve.
Johnson Wagner. Wagner finished an unspectacular 29th last week, which is perhaps a surprise on 2012 form to date. However, it would be wrong to entirely dismiss his game here. Wagner finished 5th in GIR and it was indifference on the greens which drove the average finish. Indeed, Wagner has been in the top 20 in GIR in the last 5 events; a precious commodity here. Strong bogey avoidance and strokes gained putting stats prior to last week, Wagner is not far off producing this week. Despite all those credentials, I think it would be a big leap for Wagner to place here as any putting weakness will be exposed here.
Jason Dufner. A lot to like about this ball striker and he has a chance of making a splash this week. Dufner is very tidy in all key stats this week without being spectacular in any. However, I quite like that profile when shooting -2/-3 each day will see you moving strongly forward. Tournament form is not desperate either. Dufner has played once in 2010 with a creditable 30th to his name. I like the Spreadex credentials and top 20 claims. Quotes of 125/1 are decent as well given the >30/1 place odds that represents.
John Senden. John Senden will place somewhere soon on current form. In the last 3 events (12 rounds), he has had round ranks including an 8th, 1st, 3rd, 1st and 6th. 4 top 25s in 6 events also tells you Senden is playing well right now. Similar to Dufner, this is a player whose consistency and solid ball-striking could see him go well this week. Ogilvy, Day and Scott all showed up last year and this could be the latest Australian to trouble the leaders. 200/1 is a huge price, despite Senden's ability to go well, but not usually well enough. The negative? Two missed cuts here out of 2.
Charles Howell III. Howell has a distant 13th in 2004 to show as his best effort in 7 attempts here. Typical consistency from Howell of late, but I would be surprised if he chooses this week to step up and trouble the leaders.
Dave (OneBet)
No comments:
Post a Comment