US Masters tips - Outright betting

Outright selections
3pts EW Phil Mickelson at 12/1 (Various, but take the 6 places with SkyBet) Profit 9pts
0.4pts EW John Senden at 200/1 (Various, but take the 6 places with Bodog) Loss 0.8pts
1.5pts EW Justin Rose at 33/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral) Loss 3pts
0.5pts EW Bo Van Pelt at 100/1 (Various) Loss 1pt
1pt EW Bill Haas at 100/1 (Various) Loss 2pts

Overall profit : 2.2pts

Masters specials bets - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/us-masters-specials.html
Masters historical form - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/us-masters-betting-course-form-guide.html
Masters recent form - http://onebettips.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/us-masters-tips-recent-form-guide.html

Tournament guide
A number of factors combine in 2012 to make the first major of the year one of the most hotly anticipated strokeplay events in recent memory.

First of all, Tiger Woods starts the event as favourite having finally landed a full field PGA event, 2 long years after his come back at Augusta in 2010.  It was always inevitable that the layers would protect their margins after a Woods win, but we have more to consider than that.  Woods has been in fine form and leads the tour in the all round rankings.  With a 1st, 2nd and 3rd place already this year from only 4 finished strokeplay events, his credentials are obvious this week.  If you need any more reason to respect Woods, check out his results since 2001 at the Masters : 1, 1, 15, 22, 1, 3, 2, 2, 6, 4, 4.  Put simply, a good display from Woods will see him challenge for the green jacket this week.

While Woods has been finding his game, Rory McIlroy has shot to the top of the World Rankings, albeit briefly.  McIlroy has been in stunning form, with an 11th in the season ending race to Dubai event the only "blip" on an otherwise stunning run of top 10 finishes, which includes two wins.  The last of those wins was in the US, where he remained very solid in fending off a charging Woods (and Westwood) to land a PGA tour event at the Honda.  There is an intriguing subplot between Woods and McIlroy this week as the former undisputed World no.1 tries to gun down the most likely long-term heir to his throne.    Finally, we must also not forget the amazing implosion of last year, when McIlroy completely lost his composure on the black 9 and turned a 3 shot 63 hole lead in to a distant 15th place finish come the end.  McIlroy has since won his first major and reached world no.1, but it will be intriguing to see whether any lingering memories and doubts remain around here.

But that is not all.  Last time out, the current World No.1 Luke Donald won to reclaim his top ranking.  After a slow start to the season Doral (6th) and the Transitions Championship (1st) heralded the true competitive season start point for Mr Consistent in 2011.  And Donald will fancy his chances here, having rallied from falling to +4 early on day 1 before finishing 4th last year.  Donald knows that McIlroy or Westwood can regain the number 1 slot here and he will be keen to make Augusta the scene of his first major; this is likely his best chance in 2012.

Phil Mickelson was very inconsistent in 2011 and recorded few top 5 finishes.  However, this year has started differently.  Phil's last 6 events read 26, 1, 2, 43, 24, 4, which is a real sign of a return to form.  The 4th place last time out was also relatively stress free as Phil never truly threatened the leaders.  Finally, Phil's record as Augusta rivals Tigers.  From 2001, results are as follows: 3, 3, 3, 1, 10, 1, 24, 5, 5, 1, 27.  Put simply, Phil's touch around the greens makes him a sensational player around Augusta when on form.  8 times out of the last 11 years here, Phil has placed, with 3 of those places being a 1st place.

Augusta ranked 15th hardest on tour in 2011 and the weather will dictate whether it plays any harder this year.  Early forecasts suggest inclement weather is possible, but at time of writing (Monday) it would be unwise to state anything with confidence.

Augusta places a premium on hitting greens, scrambling well and putting really well.  Sounds simple, but there really is a premium on high ball flight this week and the ability to shape the ball flight to reach the best position off the tee and more importantly, find the right portions of the greens to make birdie chances, as opposed to testing 2-putt challenges.  Augusta requires a lucid mind, good course management and the ability to maintain a tidy scorecard.

The selections
Phil Mickelson heads up my staking plan this week.  Phil is a 2/1 payout for a place.  Well, as mentioned, he has placed 8 out of 11 times and has won 3 times.  Therefore, the question that I face is whether his form is good enough and whether the quality of field has improved significantly to make his chances diminish significantly.  With a 1, 2 and 4 in his last 5 events, Phil is in fine shape ahead of this week.  Tiger woods offers me quarter point profit if he only places this week and Rory a half point profit.  So, to back either dictates a win only bet.  I can not trust either enough at tiny prices to advise a big bet and try and force a decent profit.  And remember, Phil's three wins here all came when tiger Woods was a better player than he is today.  I suspect Phil will be extra keen to remind the world that he is still around this week.  There has been a lot of talk about Tiger's rise, Mahan's elevation as top American and the battle for world no.1.  Do not write off Phil this week.

John Senden I really like this week at crazy odds.  For me, his odds should be half that and maybe even a little more than that.  I said it all in my recent form guide really (link at the top of the page).  John Senden is in consistent form, is a good ball striker and has the steady sort of game to potentially upset the places here.  The 6th place with Bodog could be critical if Senden does play well.  My biggest doubt is that Senden excels at doing well, but not doing well enough.  But, I am very happy to find out.

Justin Rose is in fine form and is the standout bet for me in the 25-50/1 range.  Rose's GIR stats are extremely impressive in recent weeks and his WGC win, allied to the win at the BMW championship last year (on bentgrass), suggests he is starting to find a greater comfort in bigger player fields.  Rose has played here 6 times, each time finishing top 40.  With a 5th and 11th last year to his name, Rose has proven he can play well here.  I think that with a fast start, Rose may really make a challenge this week.

Bo Van Pelt arrived at Augusta last year pretty out of sorts and then claimed an eye-catching 8th place finish.  Van Pelt is in a much better place this time around and ranks 5th in the field for recent form (form guide link above).  I am happy to see whether Van Pelt is in full fitness and then look forward to seeing whether he can take his excellent recent credentials in approach play and sound putting on to the course.  A very lively outsider this week.

Finally, I could not leave Bill Haas off my staking plan at 100/1.  The current Tour Champion, with a win already this season and a solid 42nd, 26th history in the Masters, at 100/1?  In his last 13 events, only twice has Haas failed to make the top 30.  Haas is a class act who has learned how to win and he can win tough as well, as his play-off win vs Bradley and Mickelson showed.  Putting well and largely striking his irons well, I have to take Haas at the price.  My reservation is how well he copes with lightning fast bentgrass this week.  But, I am more than willing to find out at 100s.

Dave (OneBet)